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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 230241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BACK INTO ERN AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND A GUSTY NNW WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222223
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 222047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 221958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTEN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221858
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTEN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KCTP 221655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED EAST OF SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER
NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED EAST OF SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER
NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221402
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1000 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES TO THE
EAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND
1000 AM. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS DURING THE NIGHT
AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND HAD DECREASED.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
ALSO, THEY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THE SAME TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 221216
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
816 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SERN VA THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND DELMARVA
BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD BACK
TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z
SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KCTP 220929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN VA AT
09Z. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE
00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 220827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OFFSHORE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS PUSH TO THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
LOWS NORTHWARD PUSH IS IMPEDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA.

THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IN RETURN, WE WILL HAVE A BLUSTERY KIND OF DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL OUT
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE LUCKY IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

IN ADDITION, THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON TODAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A VORT
MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO
THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA
SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE
EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE
00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
/LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL START TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HOW MUCH THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR INLAND THEY GET WILL
BE THE QUESTION. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR INLAND AS KMIV. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND AS WELL AND LOOK TO
IMPACT KILG, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KMIV BETWEEN 8Z-10Z. SHOULD ANY HOLD TOGETHER AND
APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND A BIT
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN THE
EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER BAY REMAINS
UNCHANGED, AS DOES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GALE WARNING.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE
BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220710
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS
BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT
WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE
COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 220614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW CAN EASILY BE PICKED OUT ON A RADAR LOOP. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS
BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A
BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR TONIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR AND IN
SOME AREAS, IFR, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE IS NOT IN THE LATEST TAFS.

NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE WINDS
INCREASING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST.

TODAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 220538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION AFTER A SLIGHT FRIDAY SHOWER CHANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SLOWLY DWINDLING CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW OR DRIFT SLOWLY SWWD.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER
0.10 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR...AND
TO THE EAST OF A KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI LINE.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS
DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY
SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD
IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220225
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND JST EAST TO NEAR LANCASTER. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO
DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220124 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO RELY ON LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGES AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PUT TOGETHER POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF MY FA. LOOKS TO BE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO
OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER ACRS THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR. LEFT HIGHEST CHCS ACRS THE ERN SHORE OF MD.
STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS, BUT UPPER LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY, SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR. NWLY FLOW BECOMING NELY
OVERNIGHT WITH SHWRS MOVG IN. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO ERLY WED AS LOW PRES MOVES NEARBY.
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 220015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
DELMARVA COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING...AND OCCASIONALLY MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LINGERING...FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OR SFC BASED CAPE WITHIN A POCKET OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW TSRA
ACROSS SCENT PENN EARLY TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE SOME QUASI-STNRY CLUSTERS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE OCCURRED...HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES WERE NOTED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WILL BE UNDER 0.10
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN AND 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. LOCALIZED 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81.

SOME DZ IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER
OVERNIGHT UNDER PERSISTENT/MOISTUPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS MIGHT GET
INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H TEMPS DIP INTO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY SN IN
THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD IS
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND
SOME SHOWERS AND FOG AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 212329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.
WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AND
SOME SHOWERS AND FOG AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212225 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 212201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...LOCALIZED REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP
WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STORM DEEPENING OFF THE NJ SHORE WILL
SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER
LOW STILL OVERHEAD...INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE
THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 212002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER
DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT
LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO WANE AS IT LOSES
BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED
TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
SHUTTING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS...BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 212001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

WED NIGHT MAY SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVES CIRCLE
THE UPPER LOW. BUT BREEZY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST FOR THU AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 211904
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN JUST
OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE
WIND FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAD TO
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE VORT
MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF A WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IN NW PA AND
ERN OH WILL PUSH IN SLOWLY TONIGHT. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT PRETTY CLOUDY. WHILE A NW/N
WIND IS USUALLY YIELDS A POSITIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IN THE
SE...THE WINDS WILL HOLD TOO MUCH MOISTURE TO DRY OUT. IMPULSES
ROLLING AROUND THE SFC LOW AND THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL
KEEP RAIN/SHOWERS GOING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
DZ IS POSSIBLE IN THE WRN MTNS AS CLOUDS LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
MIGHT GET INTO THE U30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE WEST AS 8H
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
MENTION ANY SN IN THE WX GRIDS IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS MOST
OF THE CLOUD IS WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL CUT OFF ON WEDNESDAY BUT WOBBLING OUT
TO SEA OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE
STATE. SHOWERS/RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND
ALMOST FOR SURE IN THE FAR SE. BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
DRYING/MIXING. HOWEVER...THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
AND SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL BE ONLY 5-10F ABOVE MORNING MINS THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTS COULD
REACH INTO THE 20S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX ROLLING
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FEW LTG STRIKES ALREADY SEEN N
OF UNV/FIG AND MORE IS POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THE SUNSET SHOULD STABILIZE
THINGS. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISBYS IN THOSE SHOWERS
GENERALLY MVFR. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE VFR BEFORE NIGHTFALL. BUT
THE STRATIFICATION TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE WNW WIND AND THEREFORE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL CREATE LOW CIGS AND SOME FOG/DZ IN
THE WEST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRES DEEPENING OFF THE NJ
SHORE WILL SPIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT
UPPER LOW STILL VERY MUCH OVERHEAD AND INSTAB SHRA AGAIN POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED THUNDER TO EXTREME EASTERN NEW JERSEY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS
WE ARE SEEING RAPIDLY FORMING CONVECTION IN EASTERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL
REPORTS WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREEZING
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 8KFT AND WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ALOFT, THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE COLD POOL IS STILL TO OUR
WEST, LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING AND WHEN YOU ADD IN A WEAK PSEUDO-
SEABREEZE FOR THE SURFACE FORCING AND 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE TO
TAP INTO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THE GOOD THING IS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING SO CLOSE TO THE COAST, WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT,
IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS, TO OUR WEST, THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 211444
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.

9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211444
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.

9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KCTP 211351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211351
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.

PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 211051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS, WHICH ARE NOW LIFTING TO OUR NORTH OVERALL.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING
TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210950
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 210859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 210859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.

THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 447
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 447







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
THE WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE
00Z/21 ECMWF TEMPS. THE DAYS COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN FCST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURL AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WIND SHIFT
FROM NE TO NW NEAR 850 MB AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
850 TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...GALE WATCH ISSUED MOST OF THE WATERS FOR OCNL GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH AN SCA ISSUANCE ATTM. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL
SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF GALES. AT HIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE
S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY A GALE BY THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 402
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
THE WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE
00Z/21 ECMWF TEMPS. THE DAYS COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN FCST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURL AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WIND SHIFT
FROM NE TO NW NEAR 850 MB AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
850 TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...GALE WATCH ISSUED MOST OF THE WATERS FOR OCNL GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. ONLY
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH AN SCA ISSUANCE ATTM. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL
SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF GALES. AT HIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE
S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY A GALE BY THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 402
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402







000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210729
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.

BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.

HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.

THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF
OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON
FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE
INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY. AN INITIAL STRONG AND COMPACT SHORT WAVE CARVING OUT
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS WELL EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
IT LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE INDICATED. AS A RESULT, THE DOWNSTREAM WAA AND LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE SOME
SHOWERS. THIS IS WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS AS IT WAS INITIALLY
RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
SOME MORE TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG. THIS WILL ASSIST
IN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THEREFORE THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALSO TAKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN MOVE IT OVER OUR AREA BEFORE IT STARTS TO
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AFTER SOME INITIAL
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THERE
COULD BE A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT, WE HELD OFF ON
ADDING A THUNDER MENTION ATTM. WE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A TIME OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE
MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS
OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST
TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF
OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON
FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME
LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE
INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR
EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FOR A TIME WITH
SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KPHL, WHERE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD START TO DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR
CEILINGS. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KCTP 210657
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTERORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.

MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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