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000
FXUS61 KPHI 271300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7:45 AM UPDATE: SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW AROUND 1/2 INCH HAVE COME
IN THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WITH THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILMINGTON DE HAD .2 OF NEW SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRESS INTO CENTRAL NJ AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL DE TODAY.
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND PLACED ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OR TWO FOR THOSE AREAS.


RADAR MAY STILL BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION AS A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS,

A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID
DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST
CHANCE IN THE POCONOS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...


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000
FXUS61 KCTP 271258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM KUNV SEWRD INTO
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROF...AS DRIER
ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM SHOULD FILL BACK
IN WITH COLD POOL STRATOCU MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALSO
KEEPING LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN KJST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE OR TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 271143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 271143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11Z RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM
ARND KUNV SEWRD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED
SFC TROF. RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM NAM INDICATE ANY ACCUMS
AFTER 12Z WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS AM...AS DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL CLEARING TO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CUT BACK ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...AND OVERNIGHT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC...GFS...AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS
WEIGHT PUT ON THE SREF AND NAM. THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COLDER SOLUTION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL
SNOW...BUT BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND NOW ANTICIPATE SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND A RAIN AND/OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOOKING AT CRITICAL THICKNESSES
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...LARGELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON SUNDAY WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE 850-700MB VALUES. THEREFORE...HAVE HELD BACK
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW AS A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH OF I-80 SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INTRODUCED
OR INCREASED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW IS HIGHER
HERE...AND BASED ON THE LATEST HEADLINES MAY BE INTRODUCED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING...ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CHANGED BACK OVER TO SNOW WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH WILL MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING
A BULLS EYE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MORE RIPE SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES
FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CUT BACK ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...AND OVERNIGHT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC...GFS...AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS
WEIGHT PUT ON THE SREF AND NAM. THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COLDER SOLUTION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL
SNOW...BUT BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND NOW ANTICIPATE SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND A RAIN AND/OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOOKING AT CRITICAL THICKNESSES
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...LARGELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON SUNDAY WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE 850-700MB VALUES. THEREFORE...HAVE HELD BACK
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW AS A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH OF I-80 SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INTRODUCED
OR INCREASED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW IS HIGHER
HERE...AND BASED ON THE LATEST HEADLINES MAY BE INTRODUCED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING...ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CHANGED BACK OVER TO SNOW WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH WILL MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING
A BULLS EYE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MORE RIPE SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES
FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 271017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PASSING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SC MTNS OF PA AT 09Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS
THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW WILL REMAIN ALONG WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF
EXTENDING FROM KUNV SE TO KTHV. BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND 4KM
NAM SUPPORT A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THIS AREA BTWN 09Z-13Z. SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AM...AS
DRY...ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS PARTIAL
CLEARING PROGRESS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATER THIS
MORNING.

UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST SKIES MAY BECOME MOSUNNY FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF STRATO CU THIS AFTN...ESP OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -15C SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS NO BETTER THAN ARND 10F ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE LOWEST TEMPS UNTIL NEXT WINTER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT FROM 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...TO
0-5F ABV ZERO ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS
ARE LIKELY REACH WCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE A LIGHT/CALM
WIND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS BLW -15F
NOT THERE YET FOR AN ADVISORY.

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OVR THE AREA. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY
ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR
MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM
THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH...IPT 18.2...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF -SHSN AT KRDG AND KABE BEFORE 12Z, AND AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY, BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF -SHSN AT KRDG AND KABE BEFORE 12Z, AND AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY, BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THIS
HOUR...WILL COMPLETELY EXIT BY 12Z. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
EVACUATED THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW. THE RATE OF CLEARING IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ULTIMATELY CUT BACK ON CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THIS
HOUR...WILL COMPLETELY EXIT BY 12Z. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
EVACUATED THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW. THE RATE OF CLEARING IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ULTIMATELY CUT BACK ON CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 270800
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 270800
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO MVFR /OCCASIONAL IFR/
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 12Z. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 10Z.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR FRI. OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
WILL BE THE RULE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AT AROUND
10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF PA AT 06Z IN REGION OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR
THE GRT LKS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS THE FOCUS OF THE LGT SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 06Z-12Z IN VICINITY OF
WEAK SFC LOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE W MTNS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY RUNNING THE 2-4SM
RANGE...LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A FRESH DUSTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BTWN 06Z-12Z.

TEMPS ALREADY BLW ZERO UPSTREAM ACROSS S ONTARIO AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MTEENS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 270226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AT WORST. HRRR AGREES IN JUST
NUISANCE ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH IF ANY AT ALL...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE OR LESS OFF AND ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE AT WORST. HRRR AGREES IN JUST
NUISANCE ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH IF ANY AT ALL...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE OR LESS OFF AND ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN THIS
EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. AT LEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ITS THE POCONOS FIRST AND THEN AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES CLOSER, IT SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBS, THE WETTER (THE ONES THAT HAVE SOME
MEASURABLE) MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LOOKING BETTER. WE DID UP MIN
TEMPS ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES, LESS IN DELMARVA WHERE IT SNOWED
HEAVIER THIS MORNING.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBLE LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS ON THE
OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST. AS
QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALL SITES. WITH THE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...APPEARS
THAT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANCE OF CLEARING SKIES AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IS LOW. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE STAYED WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST. AS
QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALL SITES. WITH THE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...APPEARS
THAT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANCE OF CLEARING SKIES AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IS LOW. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE STAYED WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 270017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 270017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHSN
THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 262347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WHICH SO FAR HAS ALL BUT
EVAPORATED AS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE-VALLEY AREA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL SLIPPERY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FLURRY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WAS TO FOLLOW THE ECHOES AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHERE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM ECHOES
SHOWED SNOW FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
FROM THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE EVENING BASED ON ABOVE
TRAJECTORY. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 262328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WAS TO FOLLOW THE ECHOES AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHERE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM ECHOES
SHOWED SNOW FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
FROM THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE EVENING BASED ON ABOVE
TRAJECTORY. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 262120
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...CTP




000
FXUS61 KCTP 262120
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RELATIVELY MILD/ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. TEMPORARILY BREAKS DOWN. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SRN STREAM EJECTING FROM A DSW TROUGH AND A DIGGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST SEEMS TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
SPREADING EASTWARD SUN-MON BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO
A RETREATING COLD SECTOR ASSOCD WITH THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH.
THE PCPN SHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SE U.S.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG SURFACE
LOW...MODELS STILL GENERATE 0.25-0.50 INCH QPF AMTS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE NW
1/2 OF CENTRAL PA WITH MIXED PTYPES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY 24HR SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS WERE DERIVED USING A MULTI
MODEL QPF BLEND WITH PSEUDO INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTION FACTOR AND
WPC WWD. THIS RESULTS IN ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE NW 1/2 AND
0.10 INCH ICE/ZR OVER THE LWR SUSQ VLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE AMTS IS
AVG AT BEST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
THE LACK OF A DEFINED SFC CYCLONE ALSO RAISES SOME REG FLAGS.

ANOTHER COLD HP SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH ANOTHER
SW FLOW WAA MSTR SURGE ALONG BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE LKLY
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH ON PCPN
RETURNING EARLY TUE VS. SLOWER ECMWF (TUE NGT). MIXED PTYPE ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...CTP



000
FXUS61 KPHI 262041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
   EXPECTED AT TIMES.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...



&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 262041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
   EXPECTED AT TIMES.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...



&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW-SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LAURELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHTER SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPS AND FALLS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT220
CORRIDOR.

ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A LIGHT COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA...TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

AS WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO NW THROUGH TONIGHT...A
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MEAN THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAURELS...WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...TRANSFORMS TO FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED -SHSN TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. THE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH
TO NW WIND WILL REDUCE THE APPARENT TEMP BY ABOUT 7-10F FROM THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FLATTENS OUT AN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. AREAS OF STRATO CU AND ISOLATED TO SCTD MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DISSOLVE AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1040-1045 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO NW WIND OF 5-10KTS WILL VARY
FROM JUST 8-12F ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST NIGHT UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER PENN.

LOW TEMPS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS...AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THE COLDEST RURAL
VALLEYS IN NW AND NCENT PENN COULD SEE THE MERCURY SETTLE TO
AROUND -20F AT 11-12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES TO DIP ONCLY DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /AND ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR/
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
-SHSN DEVELOPING IN THE 20-23Z PERIOD.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE JUST A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAURELS...WITH MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND
MVFR TO VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A 5-10KT WEST TO NW WIND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261709
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1209 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF I-81/ HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND
IS SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION THIS MIDDAY HOUR.

CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCNL
FLURRIES FALLING IN MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT NE SFC WIND THIS AFTN
WILL ACCOMPANY MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH.

INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP...AND DRIFT OVER THE WRN MTNS
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SPARKING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE RT 219 CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SOME
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAUREL. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A COATING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUM LIKELY /ESP
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN
ALOFT AND LLVL WINDS BACK FROM THE NE TO NW ENHANCING THE LLVL
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY
MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL
MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM
LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261709
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1209 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF I-81/ HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND
IS SHIFTING NE OF THE REGION THIS MIDDAY HOUR.

CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCNL
FLURRIES FALLING IN MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT NE SFC WIND THIS AFTN
WILL ACCOMPANY MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH.

INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP...AND DRIFT OVER THE WRN MTNS
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SPARKING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE RT 219 CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SOME
SLICK SPOTS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAUREL. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A COATING TO ONE INCH OF ACCUM LIKELY /ESP
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/ AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN
ALOFT AND LLVL WINDS BACK FROM THE NE TO NW ENHANCING THE LLVL
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY
MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL
MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM
LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261639
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY. DRY AND
FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPROACHES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE THIS EVE. AT THAT TIME...MODEL PROFILES SATURATE TO
700MB WITH MUCH OF THAT BEING IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE...INDICATIVE
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS
RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE.
THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING
ABOUT AN INCH TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RIGHT NOW WITH CLOUD COVER
REMAINING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING
ANY LOW TEMP RECORDS. HOWEVER...SOME COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PA MAY REACH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -10. RIGHT
NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADVISORIES. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261438
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
938 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME
RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH
OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE...

AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /WELL TO THE
NORTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE N. CAROLINA COAST/ WILL
BRING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF
I-81 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATION WILL BE
GENERALLY 1/2 INCH OR LESS THOUGH...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SLICKEN UP
AREA ROADS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN YORK AND SOUTHER LANCASTER
COUNTY COULD PICK UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW BY 19Z.

ELSEWHERE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH LLVL NERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A SHIELD OF THICK MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT VERY
LIGHT SNOW WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TODAY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...LOW-MID 20S IN CENTRAL
PENN...AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH OR NW BY
MORNING...CREATING AN INCREASING UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW IN THE WEST.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THIS
MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A 4-8KT NERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM
1-3SM WILL AFFECT MAINLY KTHV...KMDT AND KLNS THROUGH 19Z...WHILE
INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN TAF SITES.

THE FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/
LATE THIS MORNING AM...THEN OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/
DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE
LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM
AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE JET STREAM
FAVORS BROAD BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM UPDATE...
KNOCKED POPS AND COVERAGE OF SHSN DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
HURRIED THE ENDING OF ANY SNOW FOR THE SE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. NO
CHANGES FOR THE WEST. CURRENT TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A MILDER
AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND WILL HOLD STEADY
WITH THOSE NUMBERS FOR NOW. THE LIGHT SNOW IS RIGHT AT THE STATE
LINE...RIGHT ON TIME.

PREV...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 261146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 261146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 261146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. HRRR OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE STEADIEST SNOW AND ASSOC SIG VIS REDUCTIONS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS
IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BTWN 12Z-16Z.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260846
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
EARLY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS LOWERING AND LIGHT SNOW GETTING CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM
THE S AND FROM THE NW...IT IS SNOWING AT KEKN AND KCAK. THE
DOUGHNUT ON THE RADAR INDICATING SNOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY SUNRISE RIGHT
ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+KT JET IS
ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER MDLS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE FAR SE AND OVER
THE NW MTNS. NAM DOES SNEAK SOME PRECIP N OF THE BORDER...BUT QPF
REMAINS LITTLE TO NONE. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE WILL
BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING ALL ALONG THE MD BORDER AND
IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN
SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE
SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BEFORE NOON. THE WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY
HOLD ON IN THE LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S. THE LIGHT NW WIND
APPEARS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 25TH...IPT 18.0...MDT 20.7.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO CAPE
HATTERAS...THEN OUT TO SEA LATER TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT/S
PRECIP SHEILD COULD GRAZE KLNS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT
SNOW/LOW VSBYS BTWN 12Z-15Z BASED ON LATEST NEAR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE ABOUT 50/50 WHETHER KLNS SEES IFR VSBYS. CHC
OF IFR VSBY AT KMDT BTWN 12Z-15Z IS EVEN LOWER...BUT NOT ZERO.

COASTAL STORM WILL HAVE MADE IT/S CLOSEST PASS AND WILL BE
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ARND 16Z. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT
TOWARD A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW/SIG VIS REDUCTIONS INTO THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ BY LATE AM...THEN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /KJST/ DURING THE AFTN. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDS APPEAR LIKELY AT THESE LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC LIGHT SNOW MOVES THRU. A
DOWNSLOPING NNW WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND OCNL LGT
SNOW. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VIS REDUCTIONS THIS
EVENING AT KUNV/KAOO.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY AM LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SNOW LIKELY NW MTNS. MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MON...MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 260645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE UPPER JET STREAM FAVORS BROAD
BUT WEAK LIFT OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS NOW COVER THE AREA AND THE DOUGHNUT OF SNOW ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY CLOSE IN AS THE PRECIP WORKS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN BORDER. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET IS ALSO OVERHEAD AND THE FAVORABLE LIFT COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. GFS WET VS MOST OTHER
MDLS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE ACCUM PRECIP TO THE
FAR SE AND OVER THE NW MTNS. SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS CONFINED
TO THE FAR SE...MAINLY SRN LANCASTER/YORK COS. THE AMOUNTS THERE
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES ALONG THE MD BORDER AND IN THE LAURELS AND NW. THE WEAKNESS
IN THE LIFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE JUST PUT IN SOME FLURRIES THERE. THE LOW ZIPS
AWAY AND ANY SNOW IN THE SE SHOULD MOVE AWAY/STOP BY NOON. THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE WRN
MTNS ALL DAY. TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A FEW DEGS UP THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL KEEP AN UPSLOPE GOING IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THUS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE - MAINLY IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THRU FRIDAY MORNING...AND HOLD ON IN THE
LAURELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY
MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW
SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE TO
WARNINGS AND ADD A TIER OF ADVISORIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN A
VERY CONFLICTING WINTER THERE WAS CONFLICTED VERIFICATION THROUGH
00Z. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PCPN MASS
FIELDS (WRF-NMMB AND SREF MEAN WAS TOO FAR NORTHWEST). PROBLEM
GOING FORWARD IS THAT THEY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN. LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB HAD A SHIFT TO THE SE IN ITS
HEAVIER PCPN AXIS TO THE SE AND THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN
ABOVE. RAP HAS BEEN PRETTY BULLISH WITH ITS PCPN THIS EVENING,
BUT IT TOO IS VERIFYING TOO WET IN THE CAROLINAS.

WHILE THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TO LESS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SO APPLYING A 15:1 RATIO EVEN TO THE DRIEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD GET
SUSSEX COUNTY TO WARNING CRITERIA, WHICH WE UPGRADED. THE NEXT
SLICE UPWARD WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM THE HRRR AND THE 18Z CAN
RGEM, WE LEFT AS ADVISORIES.

WE ADDED A WINT WX ADVISORY FROM CECIL NEWD INTO BURLINGTON AND
OCEAN MAINLY BECAUSE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH SFC DEW POINTS (THEY ARE DRIER THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING), BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT NEG TILT SHORT WAVE WHICH DOES PASS THROUGH
THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDS ROLLING IN, WE GENERALLY UPPED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE TO
WARNINGS AND ADD A TIER OF ADVISORIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN A
VERY CONFLICTING WINTER THERE WAS CONFLICTED VERIFICATION THROUGH
00Z. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PCPN MASS
FIELDS (WRF-NMMB AND SREF MEAN WAS TOO FAR NORTHWEST). PROBLEM
GOING FORWARD IS THAT THEY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN. LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB HAD A SHIFT TO THE SE IN ITS
HEAVIER PCPN AXIS TO THE SE AND THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN
ABOVE. RAP HAS BEEN PRETTY BULLISH WITH ITS PCPN THIS EVENING,
BUT IT TOO IS VERIFYING TOO WET IN THE CAROLINAS.

WHILE THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TO LESS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SO APPLYING A 15:1 RATIO EVEN TO THE DRIEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD GET
SUSSEX COUNTY TO WARNING CRITERIA, WHICH WE UPGRADED. THE NEXT
SLICE UPWARD WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM THE HRRR AND THE 18Z CAN
RGEM, WE LEFT AS ADVISORIES.

WE ADDED A WINT WX ADVISORY FROM CECIL NEWD INTO BURLINGTON AND
OCEAN MAINLY BECAUSE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH SFC DEW POINTS (THEY ARE DRIER THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING), BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT NEG TILT SHORT WAVE WHICH DOES PASS THROUGH
THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDS ROLLING IN, WE GENERALLY UPPED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE TO
WARNINGS AND ADD A TIER OF ADVISORIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN A
VERY CONFLICTING WINTER THERE WAS CONFLICTED VERIFICATION THROUGH
00Z. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PCPN MASS
FIELDS (WRF-NMMB AND SREF MEAN WAS TOO FAR NORTHWEST). PROBLEM
GOING FORWARD IS THAT THEY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN. LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB HAD A SHIFT TO THE SE IN ITS
HEAVIER PCPN AXIS TO THE SE AND THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN
ABOVE. RAP HAS BEEN PRETTY BULLISH WITH ITS PCPN THIS EVENING,
BUT IT TOO IS VERIFYING TOO WET IN THE CAROLINAS.

WHILE THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TO LESS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SO APPLYING A 15:1 RATIO EVEN TO THE DRIEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD GET
SUSSEX COUNTY TO WARNING CRITERIA, WHICH WE UPGRADED. THE NEXT
SLICE UPWARD WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM THE HRRR AND THE 18Z CAN
RGEM, WE LEFT AS ADVISORIES.

WE ADDED A WINT WX ADVISORY FROM CECIL NEWD INTO BURLINGTON AND
OCEAN MAINLY BECAUSE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH SFC DEW POINTS (THEY ARE DRIER THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING), BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT NEG TILT SHORT WAVE WHICH DOES PASS THROUGH
THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDS ROLLING IN, WE GENERALLY UPPED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE TO
WARNINGS AND ADD A TIER OF ADVISORIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN A
VERY CONFLICTING WINTER THERE WAS CONFLICTED VERIFICATION THROUGH
00Z. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PCPN MASS
FIELDS (WRF-NMMB AND SREF MEAN WAS TOO FAR NORTHWEST). PROBLEM
GOING FORWARD IS THAT THEY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN. LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB HAD A SHIFT TO THE SE IN ITS
HEAVIER PCPN AXIS TO THE SE AND THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN
ABOVE. RAP HAS BEEN PRETTY BULLISH WITH ITS PCPN THIS EVENING,
BUT IT TOO IS VERIFYING TOO WET IN THE CAROLINAS.

WHILE THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TO LESS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SO APPLYING A 15:1 RATIO EVEN TO THE DRIEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD GET
SUSSEX COUNTY TO WARNING CRITERIA, WHICH WE UPGRADED. THE NEXT
SLICE UPWARD WITHOUT CORROBORATION FROM THE HRRR AND THE 18Z CAN
RGEM, WE LEFT AS ADVISORIES.

WE ADDED A WINT WX ADVISORY FROM CECIL NEWD INTO BURLINGTON AND
OCEAN MAINLY BECAUSE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH SFC DEW POINTS (THEY ARE DRIER THAN THEY ARE PREDICTING), BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT NEG TILT SHORT WAVE WHICH DOES PASS THROUGH
THE AREA.

WITH CLOUDS ROLLING IN, WE GENERALLY UPPED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
918 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST WILL BRUSH
OUR REGION WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
918 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST WILL BRUSH
OUR REGION WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
918 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST WILL BRUSH
OUR REGION WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260218
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
918 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID WEST WILL BRUSH
OUR REGION WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260203 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 252331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE WRF-NMMB
AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS. WANT TO SEE WHICH
MODEL VERIFIES THE BEST AT 00Z. SLIGHT EROSION IN THE DP/DTING OF
THE RAP AND HRRR, BUT MAKING A NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE AT THIS
POINT.

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS
OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 252331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE WRF-NMMB
AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS. WANT TO SEE WHICH
MODEL VERIFIES THE BEST AT 00Z. SLIGHT EROSION IN THE DP/DTING OF
THE RAP AND HRRR, BUT MAKING A NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE AT THIS
POINT.

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS
OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE WRF-NMMB
AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS. WANT TO SEE WHICH
MODEL VERIFIES THE BEST AT 00Z. SLIGHT EROSION IN THE DP/DTING OF
THE RAP AND HRRR, BUT MAKING A NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE AT THIS
POINT.

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS
OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE WRF-NMMB
AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CAMPS. WANT TO SEE WHICH
MODEL VERIFIES THE BEST AT 00Z. SLIGHT EROSION IN THE DP/DTING OF
THE RAP AND HRRR, BUT MAKING A NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCE AT THIS
POINT.

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS
OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT GOING DOWN TO
IFR KPHL METRO AREA SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, MIGHT REMAIN MVFR
DUE TO CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CIG MOVING IN. WIND DIRECTION
AN AVERAGE FOR FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTH. SPEEDS LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...KRDG AND KABE AS WELL AS PHL METRO AIRPORTS REMAINING
VFR WITH A LOWERING CIG. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS, LIGHTER FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS. AT KACY AND KMIV,
BECOMING IFR (VSBYS) LATE IN SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE A MVFR CIG
MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY MORNING...KACY AND KMIV IFR (VSBYS MOSTLY) IN SNOW.
IMPROVING LATE. NORTHNORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. KPHL METRO AIRPORTS BECOMING MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW. CIGS OR VSBYS CAUSE. REGION WILL BE NEAR NORTHWEST
EDGE OF STEADY SNOW, SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. NORTHNORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KABE AND KRDG SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN
SNOW FLURRIES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS. VSBY
REDUCING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY EVENING...KPHL TAF BECOMING VFR WITH A HIGHER BASED CIG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KCTP 252323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF
MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THE ARCTIC AIR IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MY NWRN ZONES AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF
MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER STORMY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE AREA INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THE ARCTIC AIR IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MY NWRN ZONES AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...TO THE LOWER-
MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252315
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252315
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 252314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
614 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRSPACE LATER THIS
EVENING. LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW STRATO
CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

MDT STRONG NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

MON...WINTRY PCPN PSBL WITH REDUCTIONS...IMPROVING CONDS LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 252052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO BECOME CLOUDY, WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.

SNOW WILL IMPACT KACY AND KMIV BETWEEN 09-11Z, WITH SNOW PUSHING
INTO KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN AROUND 12Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO KABE/KRDG AROUND 14-15Z. AS THE SNOW
MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SNOW
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KMIV
AND KACY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING
TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-12 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND (EXCLUDING CECIL COUNTY), CENTRAL
DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLOUDIER THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD AND GIVE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS EVENT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY SNOW UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS YOU HEAD NORTH, THE CLOUDS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WE WILL
RADIATE FAIRLY WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOWER TEENS IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED AND CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE
UPPED THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE
AIR REMAINS A BIT DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
TO FALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHERN EASTERN
SHORE OF MARYLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EDGING HIGHER WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY PUSH TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FULLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
HE WEST. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
COMBINED TO CREATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE AFTERNOON.

AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH
THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT DOES NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PTYPES COULD BECOME
A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE TUESDAY THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, AND
LIFTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA. PTYPES COULD AGAIN
BECOME A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
STARTING AS SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO BECOME CLOUDY, WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.

SNOW WILL IMPACT KACY AND KMIV BETWEEN 09-11Z, WITH SNOW PUSHING
INTO KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN AROUND 12Z. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO KABE/KRDG AROUND 14-15Z. AS THE SNOW
MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SNOW
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KMIV
AND KACY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING
TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-12 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST-WEST WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING.
A WINTRY MIX LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BECOMING RAIN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RAISED ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT 09Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 22Z THURSDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL RISE IN EXCESS
OF 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 4 FEET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KCTP 252025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...ALA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LATE
FEB SUN ANGLE SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON
FRIDAY - ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DRIES THINGS OUT FOR EARLY
WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLIDE ACROSS PA IN A DISORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES
THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.

AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION COULD LEAD TO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE DOES
APPEAR TO TRAVEL SOUTH OF PA AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE AREA WOBBLES AROUND THE ZERO
DEGREE H850 LINE..

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...ALA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 252013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE
TO BE BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE
MOISTURE REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
COULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY -
ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE
TO BE BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE
MOISTURE REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
COULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY -
ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 252013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE
TO BE BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE
MOISTURE REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
COULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY -
ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PITTSBURGH AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PREVIOUS SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE STATE RATHER UNEVENTFULLY.

HIGH CLOUDS /AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM/
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AND
THICKENING UP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES /AND WESTERN
MTNS/ TWD DAYBREAK...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
DUSTING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEG F BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS /WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST/...TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A BIT OF GUSTINESS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE TODAY WILL
ABATE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT
5-8 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SOFT...SQUEEZE PLAY OCCURS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
HEADED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING...AND A WEAK
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE NRN EDGE OF SOME STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY CONFINED NEAR
OR TO THE SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT A BLEND OF 12/15Z
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST OPER MODELS INDICATES THAT A LIGHT COATING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VARYING LAYERS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING SOME
THICKER AREAS OF STRATOCU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN PENN /AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS/...AS THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH STEEPER
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHES AND IS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
BETTER LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND
FLURRIES WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE
TO BE BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE
MOISTURE REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
COULD COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY -
ESP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
KBGM TO KUNV AND KPIT.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT HAS HELPED TO ERODE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE PREVIOUS...SHALLOW
STRATO CU CLOUDS.

THIN SCT CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJST THAT COULD DIP TO
MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND THROUGH THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 4KFT AGL. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KJST AND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR /MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS/ SCTD
SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251956
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 251737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12:30 PM UPDATE:TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUMPED HIGH AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE
DELMARVA SOME WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW
RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12:30 PM UPDATE:TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUMPED HIGH AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE
DELMARVA SOME WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW
RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12:30 PM UPDATE:TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUMPED HIGH AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE
DELMARVA SOME WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW
RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12:30 PM UPDATE:TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUMPED HIGH AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE
DELMARVA SOME WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW
RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12:30 PM UPDATE:TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. BUMPED HIGH AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE
DELMARVA SOME WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW
RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER
TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KCTP 251601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS
OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHALLOW...AND GENERALLY BKN LAYER OF STRATO CU HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE
STATE /ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT/.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM KELM...TO KDUJ AT 15Z...AND
WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE NARROW LINE OF SHSN WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 1-2SM.

TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE U20S TO LOWER
30S THANKS TO ADIABATIC WARMING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW.
THIS DRYING LLVL FLOW WILL HELP TO ERODE THE -SHSN AND RESULT IN
JUST A FEW BRIEF FLURRIES NEAR THE I99 AND I80 CORRIDORS FROM
KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT.

SKC TO SCT SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL GO BKN FOR A
FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN 20-22Z.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINDS SLOWLY VEER AROUND AND GO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE SC COAST. IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
WEST AND THE MOISTURE FROM THE SW OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN MTS DUE TO WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS AND EVENTUAL UPSLOPE FLOW THERE ON THURSDAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA IS LESS LIKELY TO RECEIVE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING...BUT MANY PLACES WILL HAVE FLURRIES. HOW FAST THE THICKER
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL DETERMINE COOLING TONIGHT. NORTHERN
AREAS SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO - BUT MAY GO BACK UP IF THE CLOUDS
INVADE THAT FAR THAT EARLY. THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL THEREFORE LEAD
TO SOME -15 WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEY
MIGHT NOT GET THAT LOW IF THE CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN TOO FAST THERE.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVY AT THIS POINT. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE THAT POSSIBILITY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT
HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG NOW THAT A -15 WIND CHILL IS NOT SO
BAD ANYMORE.

WILL RAMP POPS UP INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT AS THE LOW GOES OFF THE COAST AND THE FOCUS OF ANY
FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS OVER THE WEST...THE POPS WILL GO LOWER IN
THE AFTN IN THE EAST. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15F
BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO THWART REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BUT WINDS AND THE PERSISTENT SUB-NORMAL TEMPS WILL PUSH
THE WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN NEAR -15 AGAIN IN THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHSN MAY LINGER ALL NIGHT...ESP IN THE LAURELS. THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE TO BE
BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE COULD
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY - ESP IN
THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z AMENDED TAFS SENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS PUSHED EAST OF
KBFD...AND WILL CROSS THE KFIG-KJST AREA BETWEEN 1615 AND 18Z
ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR IN -SHSN.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT /ALONG A KELM TO KDUJ LINE AT 15Z/ WILL NEGATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG THE I99-I80 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO
TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES
KMDT AND KLNS.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND
THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING QUICKLY EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS
OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME RATHER
STORMY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAGGLING NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHALLOW...AND GENERALLY BKN LAYER OF STRATO CU HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE
STATE /ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT/.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM KELM...TO KDUJ AT 15Z...AND
WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE NARROW LINE OF SHSN WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 1-2SM.

TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE U20S TO LOWER
30S THANKS TO ADIABATIC WARMING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW.
THIS DRYING LLVL FLOW WILL HELP TO ERODE THE -SHSN AND RESULT IN
JUST A FEW BRIEF FLURRIES NEAR THE I99 AND I80 CORRIDORS FROM
KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT.

SKC TO SCT SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL GO BKN FOR A
FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN 20-22Z.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WINDS SLOWLY VEER AROUND AND GO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE SC COAST. IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
WEST AND THE MOISTURE FROM THE SW OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
ACCUMS OF LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN MTS DUE TO WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS AND EVENTUAL UPSLOPE FLOW THERE ON THURSDAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA IS LESS LIKELY TO RECEIVE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING...BUT MANY PLACES WILL HAVE FLURRIES. HOW FAST THE THICKER
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL DETERMINE COOLING TONIGHT. NORTHERN
AREAS SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO - BUT MAY GO BACK UP IF THE CLOUDS
INVADE THAT FAR THAT EARLY. THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL THEREFORE LEAD
TO SOME -15 WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEY
MIGHT NOT GET THAT LOW IF THE CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN TOO FAST THERE.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVY AT THIS POINT. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONTEMPLATE THAT POSSIBILITY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT
HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG NOW THAT A -15 WIND CHILL IS NOT SO
BAD ANYMORE.

WILL RAMP POPS UP INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT AS THE LOW GOES OFF THE COAST AND THE FOCUS OF ANY
FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS OVER THE WEST...THE POPS WILL GO LOWER IN
THE AFTN IN THE EAST. MAXES ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15F
BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO THWART REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BUT WINDS AND THE PERSISTENT SUB-NORMAL TEMPS WILL PUSH
THE WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN NEAR -15 AGAIN IN THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHSN MAY LINGER ALL NIGHT...ESP IN THE LAURELS. THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD CUT OFF IF IT WERE TO BE
BLOCKED/HELD UP ENOUGH...PASSES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINING...THE ARCTIC PUSH AND HIGHER LATE FEB SUN ANGLE COULD
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ON FRIDAY - ESP IN
THE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE BURLY 1045 SFC HIGH COMPLETES IT/S TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIES THINGS OUT FOR 36-48 HRS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. IT SLIDES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC TROUGH DUE TO THE VERY HIGH PRESSURES
ALREADY IN PLACE...DISORGANIZATION IS IN STORE FOR A STORMY PERIOD
SUN-EARLY MON AS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SLIDE ACROSS PA. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THEN SHOVES THAT
STORM OFF TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL STRETCH BACK TO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...DEEPENING A SFC LOW - WHICH LOOKS TO GO UP TO OUR N/W.
THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS A BIG QUESTION AT THIS RANGE. GFS
SEEMS TO BE ALONE CRANKING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 980MB BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO MONTREAL. THE MAIN POINTS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPON ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WET WEATHER TO END THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE ONLY BUBBLING THE 0C 8H TEMPS AND 540DAM 1000-500
THICKNESSES UP INTO PA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BUT...THAT GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING IT WET RATHER THAN WHITE. IT COULD
BE A SIMILAR STORM TO THE PAST WEEKEND...WHERE THE LOW GOES TO THE
WEST BUT THE STUBBORN COLD AIR KEEPS IT MORE SNOWY OR AT LEAST A
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO. BUT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FUTURE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCS AND WAIT FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z AMENDED TAFS SENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS PUSHED EAST OF
KBFD...AND WILL CROSS THE KFIG-KJST AREA BETWEEN 1615 AND 18Z
ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR IN -SHSN.

LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
FRONT /ALONG A KELM TO KDUJ LINE AT 15Z/ WILL NEGATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG THE I99-I80 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO
TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES
KMDT AND KLNS.

WNW WINDS JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT WILL AVERAGE
12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE. CURRENT LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BECOME WNW AND INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 10KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING AROUND
THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SAT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 24TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 21.2.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY
FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. BY MID DAY, GUSTS NEAR
25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE GULF COAST TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RACES OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN MONTANA WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
COMING WEEKEND, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN LOW RAPIDLY LIFTING AWAY
FROM THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY TIME HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, IT WON`T FEEL THAT WAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF LOWS LIFTS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELMARVA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

DESPITE WHAT THE CALENDAR SAYS, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE P TYPE. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IT PICKS UP SPEED, WITHOUT MUCH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
PRESENT, AND OPENS UP EVEN FURTHER ACTING MORE LIKE A STABLE WAVE
THOUGH IT DOES TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION PLACING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN ITS NORTHERN FRINGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN THE FORM OF A POSSIBLE
COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE, HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITHIN AN
AREA OF BROAD SCALE LIFT. THERMALLY WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMALLY DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT, BANDING, TO HELP INCREASE OUR ACCUMULATIONS. AS WAS
STATED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WE STAYED CLOSE TO A WPC
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISED AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH, OUR CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE GRAPHIC SHOWS UPWARDS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF, MOSTLY ITS ARW MEMBERS, HAVE
GONE GANG BUSTERS WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF, GIVEN THEIR MESOSCALE
CORE WHICH COMPLETELY SKEWS THE TOTALS. USE THE SREF VERY VERY
VERY CAREFULLY, OR NOT AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
AN ISSUE. THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY NORTH OF THE DELMARVA AND AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT, MOSTLY FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
WITH ZONALISH FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE. A COUPLE MORE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
WITH ANOTHER CLOD SNAP.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW TURNS SHARPER AS THE BROAD TROUGH
RELOADS TO OUR WEST. DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMENCES AS
SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB
CLOSER TO NORMAL. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD AND DEPENDING
ON WHEN IT STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT BUT A SNOW TO RAIN
PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD.

TUESDAY...JET DYNAMICS...WAA AND POOLING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT. TOO
EARLY FOR DETAILS SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY END UP SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
THEREFORE COLDER AND FURTHER EAST. ESSENTIALLY A MIXED PCPN EVENT AT
THIS DISTANT OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON AN EVENT BUT
ONLY AVERAGE OR BELOW ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. VERY LATE
TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z, BUT LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z), SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, KPHL,
KPNE, KILG, KMIV, AND KRDG HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WHILE KACY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AFTER 06Z, THOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AND
WITH ANY SNOW, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. STEADY MVFR/IFR SNOW AROUND
MIV/ACY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. BY MID DAY, GUSTS NEAR
25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20KT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY... WINDS TURN NLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH NEAR SCA LEVELS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251440
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGTH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH A THIN BNAD OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KDUJ TO KBVI MID
MORNING WITH BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. ONLY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INOT THE RIDGES WITH A PASSING
FLURRY ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251440
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGTH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH A THIN BNAD OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KDUJ TO KBVI MID
MORNING WITH BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. ONLY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INOT THE RIDGES WITH A PASSING
FLURRY ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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