[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 260133
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
CWA WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW. THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME WIND DESPITE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL SHRINK THROUGH
THE NIGHT HOWEVER, WHICH WILL LESSEN THE SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS. THIS
HAS HAPPENED FAIRLY QUICKLY ALREADY THIS EVENING.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM AND ALSO THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THE SAME TIME, DRIER
AIR IS GETTING DRAWN IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT GRAZING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR
AWHILE THIS EVENING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES. SINCE
THIS LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY, AND RADAR RETURNS ARE NOW WEAK
WE OPTED TO CARRY SPRINKLES UP NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS IS ROTATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS APPEARS TO BE WITH A
SHORT WAVE AND DEFORMATION TYPE FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THIS FAIRLY WELL WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT ROTATES SOUTHEAST AND
THEN EAST. THIS MAY GET SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES,
THEREFORE ADDED SOME 20-30 POPS LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON A CONTINUATION OF AT LAST SOME WIND OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT
FOR ANY FROST IS RATHER LOW ATTM. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED WHICH
INCLUDED A TIGHTER GRADIENT, WITH NEARLY A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WELL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST THESE SHOULD GENERALLY DIVE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED STARTING WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THEN SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7,000 FEET FROM NEAR KABE TO
KPNE TO KACY NORTHWARD GRADUALLY THINNING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING, THEN MOST TERMINALS LOSING THE GUSTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FROM LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY
ON SOUTHWARD INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING SO FAR, AND NOW IT IS A
MATTER OF HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS. WE BELIEVE THE MIXING WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO OCCUR, AND MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS 35-40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WE
HELD ONTO THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR NOW. ONCE THIS GETS DROPPED, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY BE MORE NEARSHORE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
MORE COMPARED TO TODAY /SATURDAY/.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 260115
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
915 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING COOL BUT FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
BUT WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING IR LOOP SHOWING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRATOCU DECK ASSOC
WITH UPPER LOW JUST SKIRTING SULLIVAN COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...EXPECT EVEN SULLIVAN CO TO BECOME CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...KEEPING AN ACTIVE
NW BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE CHC OF ANY
FROST AND TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE RESULTING MIXING.
CURRENT OBS ARE ARND 10F DEG WARMER THAN LAST EVENING AND WINDS
JUST AS STRONG...SO CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE W
MTNS IS WANING A BIT. LATEST HI-RES NAM...AS WELL AS SREF/GEFS...INDICATE
THE BEST CHC OF A FREEZE WILL BE OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE W
MTNS...WITH LITTLE CHC ACROSS THE MTNS N OF IPT. HAVE THEREFORE
CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR N CLINTON AND TIOGA CO EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND TEMPS ALOFT
MODERATE...AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. STILL EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE A BREEZY DAY...AS DEEPENING BLYR CAUSES ALLOWS GUSTS
NR 20KTS TO MIX TO THE SFC BY AFTN. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 4C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH MAY RESULT IN
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPS OF THIS COOL SNAP WITH FROST AND/OR
FREEZE WARNINGS POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESP ALONG OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS PA TUE INTO WED...BRINGING WITH IT OUR
WEEKLY BEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THOUGH JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR A TSTORM ON WED WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD-
KIPT- KRDG. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF MUCH
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWS BY
WED MORN WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON WED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN AROUND THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR ALL BY FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +16C. A
DOWNSIDE WILL BE WITH CENTRAL PA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS RISING HUMIDITY
ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SURGE IN MID LEVEL
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK AND WEAK CAP ON EDGE OF RIDGE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A GUSTY NW WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT
WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TUE
INTO WED...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THU SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY WARM...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG AND HZ POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260113 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD...SO AGAIN...NEEDED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. AS THINGS STAND...CONFIDENCE
WANING IN THE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH COLD
TEMPS. HOWEVER...LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT MUCH OF
THE CIRRUS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE DAWN ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF
GOOD HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OPENS AND EXITS NEWD...FCST AREA
WILL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDG. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES XPCD SUN
NGT AND MON FOR MUCH OF RGN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN XPCD
TO DROP LATE SUN NGT. FRZ WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NRN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS FCSTD TO BE VERY NR OR BLW FRZG. WITH UPR RDG RMNG TO W OF
FCST AREA THRU MON NGT...VERY LOW POPS WERE CONTD THRU THE PD.
WMFNT APRCHS ON TUE AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD. MSTR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA...SO ONLY LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU TUE
NGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE TIED TO TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROFS
THAT ARE POORLY RESOLVED ATTM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF A
TSTM GIVEN XPCD WARM AIR ADVCTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CONUS RMNDR OF THE WK AS SWLY LOW-
LVL FLOW INCRS. THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MSTR AND HEAT TO THE
RGN. TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S XPCD TO RETURN BY MID-WK.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT...LACK OF A BNDRY AND
UNCERTAIN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STG UPR RDG WILL LMT PCPN CVRG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMPLITUDE AND NWD POSITION OF UPR RDG...
POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WITH MODEST INSTBY PRESENT...
SLGT CHC TSTMS WILL BE CARRIED DAILY THRU THE EXTENDED PDS UNTIL
IT IS CLEAR WHETHER CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OR HEATING WILL WIN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOR
NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 260036
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
CWA WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW. THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN SOME WIND DESPITE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER,
WHICH WILL LESSEN THE SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING AS THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING SOME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM AND ALSO THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THE SAME TIME, DRIER
AIR IS GETTING DRAWN IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR AWHILE
THIS EVENING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES. SINCE THIS LOOKS
RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY, AND RADAR RETURNS ARE NOW WEAK WE OPTED
TO LOWER THE POPS AND CARRY A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
BASED ON A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WIND
OVERNIGHT, NO THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE SKY
COVER WAS ADJUSTED WHICH INCLUDED A TIGHTER GRADIENT, WITH NEARLY
A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THESE SHOULD GENERALLY DIVE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS ARE BEING ADJUSTED STARTING
WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7,000 FEET FROM NEAR KABE TO
KPNE TO KACY NORTHWARD THINNING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FROM LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY
ON SOUTHWARD INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING SO FAR, AND NOW IT IS A
MATTER OF HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS. WE BELIEVE THE MIXING WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO OCCUR, AND MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS 35-40 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WE
HELD ONTO THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR NOW. ONCE THIS GETS DROPPED, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY BE MORE NEARSHORE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
MORE COMPARED TO TODAY /SATURDAY/.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252334
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER WITH AREA OF CIRRUS CREEPING
INTO THE WEST. REST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OPENS AND EXITS NEWD...FCST AREA
WILL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDG. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES XPCD SUN
NGT AND MON FOR MUCH OF RGN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN XPCD
TO DROP LATE SUN NGT. FRZ WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NRN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS FCSTD TO BE VERY NR OR BLW FRZG. WITH UPR RDG RMNG TO W OF
FCST AREA THRU MON NGT...VERY LOW POPS WERE CONTD THRU THE PD.
WMFNT APRCHS ON TUE AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD. MSTR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA...SO ONLY LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU TUE
NGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE TIED TO TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROFS
THAT ARE POORLY RESOLVED ATTM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF A
TSTM GIVEN XPCD WARM AIR ADVCTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CONUS RMNDR OF THE WK AS SWLY LOW-
LVL FLOW INCRS. THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MSTR AND HEAT TO THE
RGN. TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S XPCD TO RETURN BY MID-WK.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT...LACK OF A BNDRY AND
UNCERTAIN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STG UPR RDG WILL LMT PCPN CVRG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMPLITUDE AND NWD POSITION OF UPR RDG...
POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WITH MODEST INSTBY PRESENT...
SLGT CHC TSTMS WILL BE CARRIED DAILY THRU THE EXTENDED PDS UNTIL
IT IS CLEAR WHETHER CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OR HEATING WILL WIN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOR
NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 252334
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
734 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING COOL BUT FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO MEMORIAL DAY...
BUT WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRATOCU DECK ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW JUST
SKIRTING SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE
AREAS FURTHER WEST ARE EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE MIXED W/FAIR WX CU.
AS THE SUN SETS...EXPECT FAIR WX CU TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL CO
MAY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF STRATOCU FROM UPPER LOW.
ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THE
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE FROST IN MOST AREAS THAT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR
THE OTHER AREAS...THE HEADLINE PRODUCT IS THEREFORE A FREEZE
WARNING AS THE WIND SHOULD NOT PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. THE DAY WILL BEGIN RATHER GUSTY BUT A
SLACKENING GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS WIND
LATER IN THE DAY...HELPING THE MID TO UPPER 60S HIGH TEMPS FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT...ESP ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE FREEZE WARNING
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTED AGAIN. EXPECT AREA TO BE SMALLER
THAN TONIGHT/S THOUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MEMORIAL DAY
AS TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS PA TUE INTO WED...BRINGING WITH IT OUR
WEEKLY BEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THOUGH JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR A TSTORM ON WED WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD-
KIPT- KRDG. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF MUCH
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWS BY
WED MORN WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON WED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN AROUND THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR ALL BY FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +16C. A
DOWNSIDE WILL BE WITH CENTRAL PA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS RISING HUMIDITY
ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SURGE IN MID LEVEL
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK AND WEAK CAP ON EDGE OF RIDGE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A GUSTY NW WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT
WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TUE
INTO WED...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION.
THU SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY WARM...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
THU...MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG AND HZ POSSIBLE EARLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD
000
FXUS61 KPHI 252225
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
CWA WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW. THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN SOME WIND DESPITE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL SHRINK THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER,
WHICH WILL LESSEN THE SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE
SYSTEM AND ALSO THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THE SAME TIME, DRIER
AIR IS GETTING DRAWN IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL
STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR AWHILE
THIS EVENING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THEREFORE, WE
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THERE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WE DID ADD IN A LAYER OF SPRINKLES
GIVEN SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD.
BASED ON A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND OVERNIGHT, NO
THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED
WHICH INCLUDED AN INCREASE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA FOR AWHILE LONGER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED STARTING WITH
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7,000 FEET FROM KABE TO KPHL TO
KACY NORTHWARD DISSIPATING MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BY MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA
FLAG OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252212 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
612 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO CLOUD COVER WITH AREA OF CIRRUS CREEPING
INTO THE WEST. REST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OPENS AND EXITS NEWD...FCST AREA
WILL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDG. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES XPCD SUN
NGT AND MON FOR MUCH OF RGN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN XPCD
TO DROP LATE SUN NGT. FRZ WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NRN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS FCSTD TO BE VERY NR OR BLW FRZG. WITH UPR RDG RMNG TO W OF
FCST AREA THRU MON NGT...VERY LOW POPS WERE CONTD THRU THE PD.
WMFNT APRCHS ON TUE AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD. MSTR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA...SO ONLY LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU TUE
NGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE TIED TO TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROFS
THAT ARE POORLY RESOLVED ATTM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF A
TSTM GIVEN XPCD WARM AIR ADVCTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CONUS RMNDR OF THE WK AS SWLY LOW-
LVL FLOW INCRS. THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MSTR AND HEAT TO THE
RGN. TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S XPCD TO RETURN BY MID-WK.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT...LACK OF A BNDRY AND
UNCERTAIN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STG UPR RDG WILL LMT PCPN CVRG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMPLITUDE AND NWD POSITION OF UPR RDG...
POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WITH MODEST INSTBY PRESENT...
SLGT CHC TSTMS WILL BE CARRIED DAILY THRU THE EXTENDED PDS UNTIL
IT IS CLEAR WHETHER CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OR HEATING WILL WIN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WAS THE CASE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 252014
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT
MODERATE BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRATOCU DECK ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW JUST
SKIRTING SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE
AREAS FURTHER WEST ARE EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE MIXED W/FAIR WX CU.
AS THE SUN SETS...EXPECT FAIR WX CU TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...SULLIVAN/SCHUYLKILL CO
MAY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF STRATOCU FROM UPPER LOW.
ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THE
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
PRECLUDE FROST IN MOST AREAS THAT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR
THE OTHER AREAS...THE HEADLINE PRODUCT IS THEREFORE A FREEZE
WARNING AS THE WIND SHOULD NOT PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND
NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. THE DAY WILL BEGIN RATHER GUSTY BUT A
SLACKENING GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS WIND
LATER IN THE DAY...HELPING THE MID TO UPPER 60S HIGH TEMPS FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT...ESP ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE FREEZE WARNING
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTED AGAIN. EXPECT AREA TO BE SMALLER
THAN TONIGHT/S THOUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MEMORIAL DAY
AS TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS PA TUE INTO WED...BRINGING WITH IT OUR
WEEKLY BEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THOUGH JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR A TSTORM ON WED WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD-
KIPT- KRDG. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF MUCH
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWS BY
WED MORN WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON WED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN AROUND THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR ALL BY FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +16C. A
DOWNSIDE WILL BE WITH CENTRAL PA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS RISING HUMIDITY
ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SURGE IN MID LEVEL
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK AND WEAK CAP ON EDGE OF RIDGE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISUALS SHOW SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU...BUT ALL CEILINGS WHERE THEY
HAVE ONE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000`.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...DOWN TO THE 5-15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD VFR...BUT WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251935
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MID DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU CEILINGS HAS NUDGED
INTO NERN PA AND IS CAUSING BKN-OVC SKIES OVER MY FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS BASICALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 60 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...IT IS ANOTHER CHILLY AND GUSTY DAY TO START THE
TRADITIONAL FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT THE THINKING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRECLUDE FROST IN
MOST AREAS THAT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE OTHER
AREAS...THE HEADLINE PRODUCT IS THEREFORE A FREEZE WARNING AS THE
WIND SHOULD NOT PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW
OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. THE DAY WILL BEGIN RATHER GUSTY BUT A
SLACKENING GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS WIND
LATER IN THE DAY...HELPING THE MID TO UPPER 60S HIGH TEMPS FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT...ESP ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE FREEZE WARNING
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTED AGAIN. EXPECT AREA TO BE SMALLER
THAN TONIGHT/S THOUGH. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MEMORIAL DAY
AS TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS PA TUE INTO WED...BRINGING WITH IT OUR
WEEKLY BEST...ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THOUGH JUST ABOUT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR A TSTORM ON WED WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBFD-
KIPT- KRDG. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF MUCH
MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOWS BY
WED MORN WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON WED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO LATE WEEK AS WARMER AIR SPREADS IN AROUND THE TOP OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BRINGING HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR ALL BY FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +16C. A
DOWNSIDE WILL BE WITH CENTRAL PA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS RISING HUMIDITY
ALSO BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN THE TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SURGE IN MID LEVEL
TEMPS BY LATE WEEK AND WEAK CAP ON EDGE OF RIDGE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISUALS SHOW SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU...BUT ALL CEILINGS WHERE THEY
HAVE ONE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000`.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...DOWN TO THE 5-15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD VFR...BUT WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251933
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OPENS AND EXITS NEWD...FCST AREA
WILL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDG. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES XPCD SUN
NGT AND MON FOR MUCH OF RGN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN XPCD
TO DROP LATE SUN NGT. FRZ WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NRN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS FCSTD TO BE VERY NR OR BLW FRZG. WITH UPR RDG RMNG TO W OF
FCST AREA THRU MON NGT...VERY LOW POPS WERE CONTD THRU THE PD.
WMFNT APRCHS ON TUE AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD. MSTR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA...SO ONLY LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU TUE
NGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE TIED TO TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROFS
THAT ARE POORLY RESOLVED ATTM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF A
TSTM GIVEN XPCD WARM AIR ADVCTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CONUS RMNDR OF THE WK AS SWLY LOW-
LVL FLOW INCRS. THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MSTR AND HEAT TO THE
RGN. TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S XPCD TO RETURN BY MID-WK.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT...LACK OF A BNDRY AND
UNCERTAIN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STG UPR RDG WILL LMT PCPN CVRG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMPLITUDE AND NWD POSITION OF UPR RDG...
POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WITH MODEST INSTBY PRESENT...
SLGT CHC TSTMS WILL BE CARRIED DAILY THRU THE EXTENDED PDS UNTIL
IT IS CLEAR WHETHER CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OR HEATING WILL WIN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WAS THE CASE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
34/KRAMAR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251922
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND VICINITY WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE
OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. 12Z NAM DEPICTED
THIS TREND WELL.
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NJ WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20 MPH EARLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH. NO THREAT OF FROST
FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WILL CONTINUE AS CEILINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FEET DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BUT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20 KT
GUSTS PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25+ KT BY MID-MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA
FLAG OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251912
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING IT`S PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUITE WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WAS THE CASE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251830
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MID DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU CEILINGS HAS NUDGED
INTO NERN PA AND IS CAUSING BKN-OVC SKIES OVER MY FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS BASICALLY BETWEEN 50 AND 60 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...IT IS ANOTHER CHILLY AND GUSTY DAY TO START THE
TRADITIONAL FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT THE THINKING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRECLUDE FROST IN
MOST AREAS THAT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. FOR THE OTHER
AREAS...THE HEADLINE PRODUCT IS THEREFORE A FREEZE WARNING AS THE
WIND SHOULD NOT PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW
OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIGHT DAY OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN FROM THE NW. THE DAY WILL BEGIN RATHER GUSTY BUT A
SLACKENING GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS WIND
LATER IN THE DAY...HELPING THE MID TO UPPER 60S HIGH TEMPS FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISUALS SHOW SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU...BUT ALL CEILINGS WHERE THEY
HAVE ONE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000`.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...DOWN TO THE 5-15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD VFR...BUT WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND REDEVELOPING. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
TUE-THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251653
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH
CIRRUS FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING IT`S PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. STILL ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUITE WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NOWRTHWEST WINDS 10-15 WITH GUSTS
TO 25 WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251555
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
ON SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. HAVE BEEFED UP THE
FORECAST A BIT, WITH WIND GUSTS NOW IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BELIEVE WE WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO NO WIND HEADLINES OVER THE LAND PLANNED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NORTH/EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH/WEST WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS
MID 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...PARTICULARLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 G35 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY
CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR GENERALLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NJ COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY
BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ALL LOCATIONS ARE PAST THE MORNING
LOW TIDE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF PROBLEMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN WITH UPCOMING LOW TIDE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE AT PHL SHOULD COME IN ABOUT 1 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SZATKOWSKI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251425
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL
DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY VISUALS SHOW THAT STRATOCU IS ALREADY FORMING UNDER THE
STRONG LATE MAY SUN AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NW WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
TEMPS TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE
SAME AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND
WEST. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY
COLDER RURAL VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY VISUALS SHOW SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH MOST CEILINGS WHERE
THEY HAVE ONE BEING ABOVE 3000`. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR
BY 15-17Z AND THEN CONTINUE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY TODAY...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30
KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET TODAY...AS A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND /BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES/ DEVELOPS
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GLAKES/ HELPS TO FURTHER DRY OUT FINE
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW ITS PRESENT 10-12 PERCENT LEVEL ACROSS THE
REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251200
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO REBOUND HAVE CANCELLED THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY IFR IN BR/STRATUS HAS DVLPD ACRS THE FKL/DUJ AREA...AS WELL
AS HLG. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES
DOWN. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251154
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH IN SOME
AREAS BY 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE STRONG TODAY...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO FREQUENTLY BE
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AND MONDAY...WITH UPPER
LOW PULLING EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET TODAY...AS A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND /BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES/ DEVELOPS
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GLAKES/ HELPS TO FURTHER DRY OUT FINE
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW ITS PRESENT 10-12 PERCENT LEVEL ACROSS THE
REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251100
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH IN SOME
AREAS BY 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET TODAY...AS A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND /BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES/ DEVELOPS
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GLAKES/ HELPS TO FURTHER DRY OUT FINE
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW ITS PRESENT 10-12 PERCENT LEVEL ACROSS THE
REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250951
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250939
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
539 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MAINE ON SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR GENERALLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE AT PHL SHOULD COME IN ABOUT 1 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE... 538
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN MAINE SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 401
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 401
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 401
LONG TERM...DRAG 401
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 401
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 401
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...401
RIP CURRENTS...401
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250746
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMP DROP OVR AREAS N AND E OF PIT HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MRNG BY
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU DECK THAT HAS RECOVERED SINCE MIDNGT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK AND THE REST CONT O
FLIRT WITH THE THRESHOLD. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COUNTIES ARE
IN THE MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S.
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINE WL THUS BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR STRATOCU TO THE NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE WL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFT SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. BRF MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL...WITH IFR AT DUJ...THRU SUNRISE. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS
GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15/07
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250713
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATO CU
STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS CLOUD COVER AND A MDTLY TIGHT
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A 7-12KT WEST TO NW
BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
THE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ REGION IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. A CLOSE CALL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE REGIONAL ASOS AND
MESO OBS SHOWED MOST TEMPS BETWEEN 33-36F...WITH A FEW MORE DEG OF
COOLING EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA UNTIL 9 AM TODAY.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE MTNS THIS MORNING...IT WILL
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY...AS THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE SCALE RAIN
SHIELD /ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/S DEFORMATION ZONE/ WILL STAY
ACROSS FAR ERN PENN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT
A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF
THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250632
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250628
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD THRU TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NW WINDS DOWN DEL BAY HAVE CREATED NEGATIVE WATER LEVEL
DEPARTURES OF -1.5 TO 2.5 FT. WITH THE LOW TIDE APPROACHING...WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SOON...IF IT APPEARS THE THE DEL RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW WATER ALSO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250456
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MASSAGE HOURLY TRENDS.
SFC WIND HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS
BUILD ACRS CNTRL AND ERN OHIO...A BIT E OF LAST NGTS MDL-PROGS.
SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN HAS THUS ERODED STRATOCU E OF A LINE FM
CLARION TO MORGANTOWN AS OF MIDNGT. RESULTING TEMPS ALREADY ARE IN
THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...AND COLD ADVCTN HAS PLUNGED OAKLAND MD
TO 32 F DESPITE BEING OVRCAST.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR
THE UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-
AVERAGE TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 UNDR USING A
BLEND OF ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS
WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVCTN RESUMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...GENLY E OF I 79...WL GRDLY DCRS IN COVG OVRNGT.
MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR SAT.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250337
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF AND GONE NEGATIVE TILT...
WHICH HAS PULLED SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250244
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250146
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS
CONTINUE BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND
MOVE NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250137 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS ARE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN A BIT FASTER
THAN MODELS DEPICTED. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY
WILL USE LATEST RAP MODEL RUN AS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250111
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
911 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 00Z...SO NOT
MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EARLY EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242326
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242251
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR CENTRAL PA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND N
OF I-80.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS SOUTHWARD
INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE OVR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 21Z...SO NOT MUCH
COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. LATE AFTN VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242228 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242133
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR CENTRAL PA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND N
OF I-80.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS SOUTHWARD
INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE OVR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 21Z...SO NOT MUCH
COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. LATE AFTN VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242051
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL
KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL BE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT AT 23Z ALG THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND AT 10Z FOR
THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN FROM
S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241926
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241859
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE HAVE NEARLY EXITED MY
EASTERN COUNTIES. COLD BRISK NNW FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANNELED CUMULUS STREETS AND LOCAL UPSLOPE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE FREEZING ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR
TONIGHT. WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...AND PREVENTING FROST
FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241759
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE HAVE NEARLY EXITED MY
EASTERN COUNTIES. COLD BRISK NNW FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANNELED CUMULUS STREETS AND LOCAL UPSLOPE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE FREEZING ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR
TONIGHT. WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...AND PREVENTING FROST
FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
KMGW AND KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. STRATOCU
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AND LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241507
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1107 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...
SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MY CWA THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER ARRIVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN SECTIONS WITH WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW
DELIVERING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH THAN
LATE MAY.
TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER BY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 25-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE
40S AND 50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
06-13Z TIMEFRAME SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 241332
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. BEHIND
A CFP, NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THEN A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE DURG THE DAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY, THEN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT, IT
COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A MAV/MET
MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON- DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND THESE
WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. ALSO, PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VARIABLE CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION THIS MRNG, WITH SOME IFR
PSBL BUT MORE LIKELY MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR. ITS GOING TO BE ONE
OF THOSE DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241252
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FOR POINTS EAST OF
THE PA/WV/OH LINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241146
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. RECENT RADAR SHOWS ARE
OF LIGHT RAIN BLOSSOMING OVER ZNY SECTOR...AND EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT THE ERN AIRFIELDS THRU LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN.
VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
/FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240957
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
24/09Z UPDATE...CIG TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED OUT AS EXPECTED
WITH IFR OVR THE MTN SITES...MVFR IN THE CNTRL RIDGE/VALLEY
TERMINALS AND VFR ACRS THE SERN AIRFIELDS. NNWLY WINDS ARE ON THE
UP-TICK...ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AT JST.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240938
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE EXITING
LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 240813
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE OFFSHORE, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY IN MORNING, THEN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT,
IT COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A
MAV/MET MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON-DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE COOL
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALSO, PW
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, SO
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF ANY SUN COMES OUT
AND ANY HEATING AND MIXING DOES TAKE PLACE, THAT WE COULD BREAK OUT
TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME VFR BY
SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240758
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240647
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
247 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY
AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST
THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW
YORK...SSW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF PENN AT 06Z...AND
SLIDING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. TEMPS
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EXTREME NWRN PENN...AND
THE MEAN 925-850 0C WET BULB LINE IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
05Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELEVATION AOA
1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT
OFF ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE. BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240618
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY
AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST
THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW
YORK...SSW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF PENN AT 06Z...AND
SLIDING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. TEMPS
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EXTREME NWRN PENN...AND
THE MEAN 925-850 0C WET BULB LINE IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
05Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELEVATION AOA
1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT
OFF ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE. BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE THUNDER NOW EAST OF THE AREA NOW. PERHAPS
A BRIEF RUMBLE AT MDT OR LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CIGS STARTING TO COME DOWN AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GO DOWN HILL OVERNIGHT...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240514
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EVE CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SCT COVERAGE INTO...AND
THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE REGION UNDR A
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LLVL. THAT PTN WL WL MAINTAIN SOME
STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED CLD COVER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INTIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OBS-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF SREF MEANS. FOR NOW...HAVE
FORECASTED LOW TO MID 30S...BUT WITHOUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
GIVEN A LACK OF DURATION OF SUB 32 READINGS...AND EXPECTATIONS OF
SUFFICIENT WIND TO PRECLUDE HEAVY FROST FORMATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240346
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1146 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
COOL...SHOWERY...AND ALMOST BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT
2-3 HRS IN THE EAST. CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS IS
FCST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE NW CO.S AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR IN FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-50 PCT THERE DUE TO THE
SCT NATURE - BUT ALMOST EVERYONE WILL GET WET OVERNIGHT IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS/TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE EAST AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE THUNDER NOW EAST OF THE AREA NOW. PERHAPS
A BRIEF RUMBLE AT MDT OR LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CIGS STARTING TO COME DOWN AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GO DOWN HILL OVERNIGHT...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240221
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
COOL...SHOWERY...AND ALMOST BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT
2-3 HRS IN THE EAST. CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS IS
FCST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE NW CO.S AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR IN FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-50 PCT THERE DUE TO THE
SCT NATURE - BUT ALMOST EVERYONE WILL GET WET OVERNIGHT IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS/TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE EAST AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST HAS MID LVL CLDS AND DECENT VISIBILITY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO DOWN HILL LATER TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
|
