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000
FXUS61 KPHI 011021
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 10Z SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NEAR WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE
POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SOME EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM IN COMBINATION WITH A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. ANY LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT REAL
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO
AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE SHEAR AND THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE.
DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT
LINES OR A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, IF IT DOES, CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER
PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED
ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY AT NOON.
OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE LOCALIZED. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON,
HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NOT A LOT OF FOG YET...GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

DID BACK OFF SOME ON FOG AND LOW CIGS ON 09Z TAFS.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010856
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TREK ENE ACROSS MY SRN ZONES...WHILE
LIGHTER RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-80.

HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC
PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 010609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010543
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN
VA TO CENTRAL NJ. SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN
1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z
MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ EXISTS...WHICH
COULD BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
LOCATION OF SAID HEAVY RAINFALL STRIPE IN THE NAM12 HAS BEEN
ATTROCIOUS...BUT EVEN THE LATEST HRRR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH A
BAND.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE
FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ERLY EVE UPDT TO ADJ POPS. PREVIOUS DISC...SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT
INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE
AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH
LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 312312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...ORGANIZING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF YORK
AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN VA TO
CENTRAL NJ. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MY AREA IS SANS
LIGHTNING...BUT SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUPY
AIR MASS WHICH FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF
TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF/SHEAR
AXIS IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING...THE TAIL END OF
THIS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT INTO N CENTRAL
MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THERE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ WHICH COULD
BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT
REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
AVAILABILITY OF 2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT REGION. SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WE APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. TIME WILL TELL.

LAST DETAIL IS THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR LONG
TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312312
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...ORGANIZING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF YORK
AND LANCASTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN VA TO
CENTRAL NJ. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MY AREA IS SANS
LIGHTNING...BUT SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUPY
AIR MASS WHICH FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00" ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DROPS OFF
TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF/SHEAR
AXIS IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST PA THIS EVENING...THE TAIL END OF
THIS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT INTO N CENTRAL
MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THERE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA NEWD TO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ WHICH COULD
BRUSH MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT
REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND
AVAILABILITY OF 2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT REGION. SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WE APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. TIME WILL TELL.

LAST DETAIL IS THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR LONG
TERM...COLBERT AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311928
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. MOST UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND MAIN
FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE CORNER
AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT
SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF
THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WEAK TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE CORE OF
JET SLIPS ACROSS EASTERN PA...TAPPING INTO MUGGY AND MOST UNSTABLE
AIR OVER SE PA. THIS REGION HAS SEEN SOME SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CATCH OUR SE
CORNER /IN VICINITY OF KMDT-KLNS/ AND POINTS S AND E. FORECAST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR INCREASING WHICH IS
AIDING IN SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVE.

TONIGHT...MAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN VICINITY OF MY SE
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND MAY
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTM IMPACTS ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 311409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS MID/LATE MORNING. CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM...BUT SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PRECIP SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONS TO A MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP IN THE
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES /AT 14Z CLOUDS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH BREAKS IN FAR
SE COUNTIES AND HINTS OF BREAKS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTNS/.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUNSHINE
AND A VERY MILD START WILL ALLOW THE SE TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER...AND ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MTNS
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SE WHERE IT REMAINS RAINFREE AT 14Z. BUT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER SUSQ THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS AGAIN DOMINATING ACROSS NORTHWEST HALD
OF CWA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS MID/LATE MORNING. CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM...BUT SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PRECIP SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITIONS TO A MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP IN THE
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES /AT 14Z CLOUDS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH BREAKS IN FAR
SE COUNTIES AND HINTS OF BREAKS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTNS/.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUNSHINE
AND A VERY MILD START WILL ALLOW THE SE TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BRING ONE OF THE
MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER...AND ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MTNS
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS...BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE LATER IN THE
DAY...WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SE WHERE IT REMAINS RAINFREE AT 14Z. BUT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER SUSQ THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS AGAIN DOMINATING ACROSS NORTHWEST HALD
OF CWA.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE CIGS IN THE 1500 RANGE IS
IPT...MDT...AND LNS. MOST OF THE LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE
UNV...AOO...AND JST. SHOWERS IN THE BFD AREA AT 12Z.

RATHER FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
UNV.

WILL ADJUST THE 12Z TAFS.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR
NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CIGS AT MANY SPOTS SUCH AS UNV AND AOO GOING BETWEEN SCT015
AMD BKN015 FOR EXAMPLE...AS BEEN THE CASE SINCE YESTERDAY.

ANYWAY...THE MAIN ISSUE NOW IS THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
PIT.

BEEN UPDATING FCST AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 310844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE WERE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE RADAR BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
MY FCST AREA.

THE HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN CURRENTLY FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONTINUING TO MARCH NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING WITH MOST OF MY
WESTERN ZONES GETTING WET BY ABOUT 6-7AM...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF
MY FCST AREA COVERED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD ALSO SEE A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP FOR MY
SERN ZONES. MODELS ARE COOKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EASTERN AREAS HINTING THAT THE THE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE
ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING. FORECAST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE WHICH COULD AID IN
ORGANIZING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ALSO PROG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...PERHAPS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...EHI`S PROGGED 1-3(M^2/S^2) COULD HELP A STORM OR TWO TAKE
ON SOME SPIN. WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED IN THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS...HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON GETTING THE SUN TO COME OUT AND FIRST COOK UP THE
CAPES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IT HAS BEEN DRY SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED...BUT
WILL OPT FOR SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND HWO
PRODUCT.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE`VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

IT`S HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL PAINT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE
NAM/SREF REPRESENT THE WETTEST SOLUTIONS WITH SOME SORT OF MESO
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE GFS/GEFS ARGUE FOR SMALLER
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S EVENTS. THE ECMWF IS THE
DRIEST OF ALL. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH. UNLESS I SEE SOMETHING COMPELLING...WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE IT MUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF LITTLE OR NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AT THIS TIME I AM HOLDING OUT HOPE OF A DRIER LABOR DAY...BUT
CANNOT DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN ALTOGETHER. SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW
THE ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME SLIDING EAST WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE
LOCALLY. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...SO I TRENDED POPS DOWN DURING
THE DAY WITH THE THINKING BEING THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LAST OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER`S
COOKOUTS.

OVERALL IT WILL NOT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING TROPICAL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE EXTENDED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN A MORE HUMID FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST. AT THIS POINT A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE WERE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO IS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
WERE HINTING AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. AS A RESULT WE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS SOME, THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND AND INCREASE THEM EASTWARD WITH
TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY. WHILE SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ACTUAL CEILINGS INSTEAD OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS PLUS A LIGHT SURFACE WIND IS GENERALLY MAINTAINED
EARLY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THIS MAY BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KCTP 310542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDTIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NW AT MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THESE
NE OF OUR AREA...UP IN WESTERN NY.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDTIONS. LOW
CIGS WILL BE IN SOME SPOTS.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD
LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE
MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE EVENING SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT LOWERING STRATUS OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THE
WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
EARLY SUN AM. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM KAOO AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH FROM THE POTTER/TIOGA COUNTY BORDER
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS BRINGING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND LED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL THERE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
65-70F RANGE EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT KJST...WHERE SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MAY KEEP CONDS THERE VFR
OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS
EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO DOMINATE LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
OUT SOME BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES.
SOMETHING RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT, STILL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, IF IT DOESN`T WASH OUT
ENTIRELY. NONE-THE-LESS THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S IN A LOT OF
SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND
A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE
DO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS A PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. STRATOCU BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3500
TO 5000 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND COULD BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN ALLOWING AT LEAST AN MVFR
DECK WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO IFR, HAD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT ILG AND TTN BASED ON SURFACE FLOW AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

TOMORROW...VFR. STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
ALTOCU IN PLACE. MOST SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO ENHANCE
THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO DOMINATE LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
OUT SOME BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES.
SOMETHING RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT, STILL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, IF IT DOESN`T WASH OUT
ENTIRELY. NONE-THE-LESS THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S IN A LOT OF
SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND
A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE
DO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS A PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. STRATOCU BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3500
TO 5000 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND COULD BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN ALLOWING AT LEAST AN MVFR
DECK WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO IFR, HAD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT ILG AND TTN BASED ON SURFACE FLOW AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

TOMORROW...VFR. STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
ALTOCU IN PLACE. MOST SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO ENHANCE
THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301939
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS A TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING
STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THESE
WILL THIN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

RADAR STILL PRETTY QUIET AT 3 PM...BUT STILL EXPECT LEADING EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CAPE.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO PILE INTO THE REGION. THE
EVENING SHOULD BRING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 65-70F
RANGE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW
VFR LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 301641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SETTING UP
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK. THE FIRST DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY...THE RETURN SW FLOW
WILL FRESHEN AND WE WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING UP
SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN FORECAST.

CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THOUGHT THESE MAY MIX OUT TO
SCT/BKN DECK TODAY...BUT NOW LOOKING LIKE THEY/LL HANG TOUGH WITH
DECK LIKELY LIFTING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLEST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...ESP THE MID VALLEY FROM KIPT TO
KSEG. ELSEWHERE WITH SOME SUN...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80.

BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM WILL CENTER ON THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS OF 1-2
STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS PUSH
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5" INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN
EXCESS OF 2" OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOST HUMID AIR OF THE SUMMER
PAYS A LATE SEASON VISIT.

LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATING A BIT OF CAPE IN PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEEING A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ALONG THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING SOLIDIFIES THE CASE TO KEEP ISOLATED
POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY
AFTER 2-3 PM/.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
PILE INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN
THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. A RARE MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME
10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE
A BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT...AND WE
HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY IN RECENT DAYS SO WILL NOT TALK UP ANY KIND
OF FLOODING THREAT AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPLY SOME OF THE MORE OPPRESSIVE READINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THIS COOL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY ANY
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING EAST THRU THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...PROVIDING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A FRONT FALLING APART OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REALLY DOES LITTLE OR
NOTHING TO CHANGE THE AIRMASS.

A SECOND MORE IMPORTANT FRONT IS BROUGHT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK
SHOULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BUT ALSO
QUITE WARM AS WE SEE A RESURGENCE IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF...BUT BOTH AGREE IN KEEPING HEIGHTS HIGH AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING FOR
WHAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER DEPARTING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SUSQ VALLEY FROM KIPT-KSEG-
KMDT INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO LOW VFR
LATE IN THE DAY. ACROSS THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSS ACROSS WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER 2-3 PM.

THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE NW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CIGS
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.
THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH LATE SATURDAY, THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH STRATOCU MOVING IN, ON THE NOSE OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE`S LOW- LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS, UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA, ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM TO START THIS MORNING, EVEN THE RUC. PAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE MAVMOS HAVE BEEN COOLING WITH TIME FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
SO WE FOLLOWED THAT TREND TODAY, COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
DISCREPANCIES, AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST
SPOTS...STILL SHOULD REACH 80F IN A LOT OF PLACES.

OTHERWISE, OUR WEATHER WILL BE IN TRANSITION TODAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WAA OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER
THERE IS A MORE NOTED INCREASE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
OCCURS AS AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, WHICH IS SEEN IN THE
THETA-E FIELDS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE, ALTHOUGH THIS PROCESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL PROBABLY BE GRADUAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT LEAST SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A CAP IN PLACE AS WARMING OCCURS ALOFT DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER
MOISTURE NEAR THE BASE OF THE CAP SHOULD HELP FOCUS SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP ASSIST IN WAA DOWNSTREAM, WHICH WILL
ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OUR WEST WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE LIFT WITH THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND THEREFORE TODAY WAS
KEPT DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE MAINTAINED. OUR REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EVENING AS ANY MIXING DIMINISHES. WHILE WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THIS GENERALLY TURNS WEAK. WE
DO MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION THOUGH, AND THIS COMBINED WITH A
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND EVEN SOME
FOG.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME LEAD SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE INSTABILITY TONIGHT, HOWEVER THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH FORCING. THERE COULD BE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDER
APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE,
THEN PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY TRY AND ARRIVE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE LATTER MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE. OVERALL, WE THINK THE
GREATER CHC WOULD BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT. THEREFORE ATTM, WE WERE SLOW TO INCREASE THE
POPS TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LATE WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG. WE ARE NOT ALL THAT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS GIVEN
THE AIRMASS IS STILL UNDERGOING MOISTENING, THEREFORE WE DID NOT
INCLUDE FOG ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE WENT WITH AN INITIAL EVEN BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS MOS THEN MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHICH TRANSLATES INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PUMP IN
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...POSSIBLY OVER TWO INCHES. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE,
ANY FLOODING THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD MOST LIKELY BE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE
DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
SENDS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO
THE MID 60S, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES TOO,
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND WE SHOULD BE DRY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT
STILL SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN BASES BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000
FEET. SOME STRATUS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AROUND RDG AND ABE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG TOWARD MORNING.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATER MONDAY. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THE FLOW
IS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SOME NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH
AN UPTICK IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS, THE WATER IS ON THE WARM SIDE
THEREFORE WE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB SCA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY EVENTUALLY
CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BELOW SCA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO
ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH LATE SATURDAY, THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH STRATOCU MOVING IN, ON THE NOSE OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE`S LOW- LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS, UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA, ARE
RUNNING TOO WARM TO START THIS MORNING, EVEN THE RUC. PAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE MAVMOS HAVE BEEN COOLING WITH TIME FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
SO WE FOLLOWED THAT TREND TODAY, COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
DISCREPANCIES, AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST
SPOTS...STILL SHOULD REACH 80F IN A LOT OF PLACES.

OTHERWISE, OUR WEATHER WILL BE IN TRANSITION TODAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WAA OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER
THERE IS A MORE NOTED INCREASE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
OCCURS AS AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, WHICH IS SEEN IN THE
THETA-E FIELDS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE, ALTHOUGH THIS PROCESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL PROBABLY BE GRADUAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. AT LEAST SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A CAP IN PLACE AS WARMING OCCURS ALOFT DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER
MOISTURE NEAR THE BASE OF THE CAP SHOULD HELP FOCUS SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY INLAND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP ASSIST IN WAA DOWNSTREAM, WHICH WILL
ORGANIZE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OUR WEST WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE LIFT WITH THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND THEREFORE TODAY WAS
KEPT DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE MAINTAINED. OUR REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE EVENING AS ANY MIXING DIMINISHES. WHILE WE STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THIS GENERALLY TURNS WEAK. WE
DO MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION THOUGH, AND THIS COMBINED WITH A
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND EVEN SOME
FOG.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME LEAD SHORT WAVES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE INSTABILITY TONIGHT, HOWEVER THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH FORCING. THERE COULD BE SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS/THUNDER
APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE,
THEN PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY TRY AND ARRIVE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE LATTER MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE. OVERALL, WE THINK THE
GREATER CHC WOULD BE TO OUR WEST CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT. THEREFORE ATTM, WE WERE SLOW TO INCREASE THE
POPS TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LATE WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG. WE ARE NOT ALL THAT CERTAIN HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS GIVEN
THE AIRMASS IS STILL UNDERGOING MOISTENING, THEREFORE WE DID NOT
INCLUDE FOG ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE WENT WITH AN INITIAL EVEN BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS MOS THEN MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMES ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHICH TRANSLATES INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PUMP IN
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...POSSIBLY OVER TWO INCHES. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE,
ANY FLOODING THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD MOST LIKELY BE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE
DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
SENDS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO
THE MID 60S, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES TOO,
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND WE SHOULD BE DRY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT
STILL SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN BASES BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000
FEET. SOME STRATUS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AROUND RDG AND ABE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG TOWARD MORNING.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATER MONDAY. LOW TO
MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THE FLOW
IS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SOME NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH
AN UPTICK IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS, THE WATER IS ON THE WARM SIDE
THEREFORE WE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB SCA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND
5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY EVENTUALLY
CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BELOW SCA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO
ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ADDITIONALLY...ISALLOBARIC
FLOW LOOKS SET TO INCREASE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE RIDGES INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE A FEW RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST. FIRST...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED FLOW MEAN INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MIXING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE AGGRESSIVE RISES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SECOND...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOTH INCREASE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
FROM INDIANA THROUGH MARION COUNTIES...WHILE ALSO MINIMIZING THE
CHANCE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO THINGS...POPS WERE CENTERED IN THE RIDGES
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF THE CWA LARGELY LOWERED BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
MENTIONING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS WERE NUDGED UP A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE WELL MIXED
PROFILE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL
CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO
THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL
CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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