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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT AND SHOWERS WELL EAST OF RIDGES WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MAV NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT AND SHOWERS WELL EAST OF RIDGES WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MAV NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT AND SHOWERS WELL EAST OF RIDGES WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MAV NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT AND SHOWERS WELL EAST OF RIDGES WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR COOLER MAV NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 161242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS.
BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME
SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT
CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN
SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ.
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND
13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A
RIP CURRENTS...840A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS.
BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME
SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT
CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN
SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ.
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND
13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A
RIP CURRENTS...840A







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 161240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
840 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRING
OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM UPDATE...
THINGS ARE DRYING UP QUICKLY. THICKER CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND SOME BREAKS EXIST BEFORE MORE STRATUS COMES IN
FROM THE NW. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR IN
THE NE/EC. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE
AND MIXING STARTS TO KICK IN.

PREV...
WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING
TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE
LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A
QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS.

AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE
COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED.

AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
ANTICIPATED/.

00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED
FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS
FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NW MTNS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING AT BFD
THROUGH 13Z. JST IS IFR DUE TO LOW STRATO CU WITH LNS PROBABLE AT
MVFR AS WELL. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BECOME VFR. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THE INVERSION LIFTS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX GUSTS SHOULDN/T
EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...WITH
MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT EXISTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 161153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
739 AM ESTF UPDATE TO UPDATE THE POPS FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL EVENT
MUCH OF NJ BETWEEN NOW AND 930AM. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 845 AM FOR
THE BACKEDGE ENDING.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING OVER NJ AT 7AM WHERE GREATEST PRES FALLS IN
THE NE USA.

MAY NEED TO ADD MORE SKYCOVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT
MOISTURE DEPOSITION FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS. TSECTIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING NJ AND LEAVING
KPHL AREA. OTRW VFR CIGS. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 11Z SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE
CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1
FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 753
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 753
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
739 AM ESTF UPDATE TO UPDATE THE POPS FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL EVENT
MUCH OF NJ BETWEEN NOW AND 930AM. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 845 AM FOR
THE BACKEDGE ENDING.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING OVER NJ AT 7AM WHERE GREATEST PRES FALLS IN
THE NE USA.

MAY NEED TO ADD MORE SKYCOVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT
MOISTURE DEPOSITION FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS. TSECTIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING NJ AND LEAVING
KPHL AREA. OTRW VFR CIGS. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 11Z SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE
CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1
FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 753
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 753
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 161043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. A STRING OF MAINLY DRY
SUNNY DAYS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY NIGHTS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING
TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE
LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A
QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS.

AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE
COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED.

AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
ANTICIPATED/.

00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED
FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS
FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND
SHOULD EXIT CENTRAL PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DUE TO THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NW MTNS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING AT BFD THROUGH 13Z.
JST IS IFR DUE TO LOW STRATO CU WITH LNS PROBABLE AT MVFR AS WELL.
THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BECOME VFR. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THE INVERSION LIFTS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX GUSTS SHOULDN/T
EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...WITH
MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT EXISTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 161043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. A STRING OF MAINLY DRY
SUNNY DAYS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY NIGHTS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING
TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE
LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A
QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS.

AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE
COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED.

AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
ANTICIPATED/.

00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED
FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS
FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND
SHOULD EXIT CENTRAL PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DUE TO THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NW MTNS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING AT BFD THROUGH 13Z.
JST IS IFR DUE TO LOW STRATO CU WITH LNS PROBABLE AT MVFR AS WELL.
THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 13Z CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BECOME VFR. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THE INVERSION LIFTS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX GUSTS SHOULDN/T
EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...WITH
MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT EXISTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONNTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONNTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KCTP 160906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. A STRING OF MAINLY DRY
SUNNY DAYS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY NIGHTS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING
TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE
LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A
QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS.

AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE
COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED.

AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
ANTICIPATED/.

00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED
FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS
FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH NW PA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
HEAVY AT TIMES...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF BFD THEY SHOULD
MVFR. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD TREK...AND SOME
SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z...AND
AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. AT THE VERY
LATEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX
GUSTS SHOULDN`T EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPHI 160840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY TREND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OUR AREA FIRMLY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THURS THE SFC HIGH ERODES AS A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH SRN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE. WITH MODELS
TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR AREA...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH...REINFORCING COOL
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONCE AGAIN
FRI MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRI...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING DAYTIME TEMPS BACK UP IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF AVERAGE. HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SOUTH...UPPER 60S NORTH AND EAST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
TEMPS WILL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE SAT/SUN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL COME WITH AN ELONGATED TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON HOW TO PHASE THE
WAVE FROM T.S. ODILE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS EVEN WITH SHOWERS,
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE VERY
LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, BUT THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LOWER CLOUDS,
AROUND BKN020, AT 12Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 040 OR 050 WILL MOVE
IN FIRST, SOMEWHAT INHIBITING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS EVEN WITH SHOWERS,
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE VERY
LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, BUT THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LOWER CLOUDS,
AROUND BKN020, AT 12Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 040 OR 050 WILL MOVE
IN FIRST, SOMEWHAT INHIBITING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160702
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160702
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160702
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160702
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS
AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR
RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 160559
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND JUNIATA RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KUNV AT 05Z WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN NEW YORK. PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN LINKED CLOSELY TO
THE THERMALLY DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF A 100 KT...300 MB
JET THAT STRETCHED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...TO LAKE ERIE.
THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS /RIGHT ENTRANCE/
REGION OF THE JET WILL SLIDE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF NWRN PENN
AND NERN OHIO/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE STATE.

21Z SREF...AND 18Z/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76. LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM KFIG TO
KUNV AND KMDT.

LOW TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS RANGING
FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA QUITE FAST THIS
MORNING. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS

WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WHILE
NW WINDS INCREASE TO 6-8 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE L-M TEENS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. 00Z
MAV NUMBERS ARE AT THE COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS
AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC.
STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS
NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH NW PA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
HEAVY AT TIMES...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF BFD THEY SHOULD
MVFR. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD TREK...AND SOME
SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z...AND
AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. AT THE VERY
LATEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX
GUSTS SHOULDN`T EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160559
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND JUNIATA RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KUNV AT 05Z WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN NEW YORK. PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN LINKED CLOSELY TO
THE THERMALLY DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF A 100 KT...300 MB
JET THAT STRETCHED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...TO LAKE ERIE.
THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS /RIGHT ENTRANCE/
REGION OF THE JET WILL SLIDE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF NWRN PENN
AND NERN OHIO/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE STATE.

21Z SREF...AND 18Z/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76. LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM KFIG TO
KUNV AND KMDT.

LOW TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS RANGING
FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA QUITE FAST THIS
MORNING. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS

WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WHILE
NW WINDS INCREASE TO 6-8 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE L-M TEENS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. 00Z
MAV NUMBERS ARE AT THE COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS
AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC.
STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS
NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH NW PA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
HEAVY AT TIMES...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF BFD THEY SHOULD
MVFR. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD TREK...AND SOME
SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z...AND
AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. AT THE VERY
LATEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX
GUSTS SHOULDN`T EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 160538
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND JUNIATA RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KUNV AT 05Z WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN NEW YORK. PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN LINKED CLOSELY TO
THE THERMALLY DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF A 100 KT...300 MB
JET THAT STRETCHED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...TO LAKE ERIE.
THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS /RIGHT ENTRANCE/
REGION OF THE JET WILL SLIDE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF NWRN PENN
AND NERN OHIO/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF THE STATE.

21Z SREF...AND 18Z/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76. LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED TO THE SW OF A LINE FROM KFIG TO
KUNV AND KMDT.

LOW TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS RANGING
FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA QUITE FAST THIS
MORNING. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 12Z TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS

WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WHILE
NW WINDS INCREASE TO 6-8 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE L-M TEENS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. 00Z
MAV NUMBERS ARE AT THE COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS
AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC.
STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS
NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN PA ATTM. ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL LEAD TO SOME GRADUAL REDUCTIONS ESP ACROSS NWRN AIRFIELDS
EARLY THEN CENTRAL AND SRN OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN PA ATTM. ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL LEAD TO SOME GRADUAL REDUCTIONS ESP ACROSS NWRN AIRFIELDS
EARLY THEN CENTRAL AND SRN OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN PA ATTM. ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL LEAD TO SOME GRADUAL REDUCTIONS ESP ACROSS NWRN AIRFIELDS
EARLY THEN CENTRAL AND SRN OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN PA ATTM. ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL LEAD TO SOME GRADUAL REDUCTIONS ESP ACROSS NWRN AIRFIELDS
EARLY THEN CENTRAL AND SRN OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO NWRN PA ATTM. ARE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL LEAD TO SOME GRADUAL REDUCTIONS ESP ACROSS NWRN AIRFIELDS
EARLY THEN CENTRAL AND SRN OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 160231
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THICKENING/LAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY /AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY LLJ/ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING
/BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT SHOWERS /COVERING MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
AND NRN OHIO AT 02Z/ WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND TARGET MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE.

15Z AND 21Z SREF AND 18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3 TENTHS ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENN. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA - BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160128
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN OVER THE REGION IS WORKING TO
EVISCERATE WHAT WAS ONCE A RATHER WIDE EXPANSE OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO. IN FACT...THE LOWEST TILTS FROM
KPBZ SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS SEEMS TO BE ANY
LONGER REACHING THE GROUND. AS SUCH...WE WILL BE WAITING FOR MORE
COHERENT UPPER SUPPORT TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MANAGES
TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

WHILE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER ROBUST
WITH A COMPACT VORT CORE...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA...AND BROAD
UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRE-
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. IT STILL SEEMS
LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHWARD...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM
DESTINED TO BE MORE NOMINAL THAN MEANINGFUL.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE
ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO START TO DECIMATE THE STRATOCUMULUS
SHIELD FARTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS
RESULT OF THE DREARY START...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160128
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN OVER THE REGION IS WORKING TO
EVISCERATE WHAT WAS ONCE A RATHER WIDE EXPANSE OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO. IN FACT...THE LOWEST TILTS FROM
KPBZ SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY FROM THIS SEEMS TO BE ANY
LONGER REACHING THE GROUND. AS SUCH...WE WILL BE WAITING FOR MORE
COHERENT UPPER SUPPORT TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MANAGES
TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

WHILE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER ROBUST
WITH A COMPACT VORT CORE...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA...AND BROAD
UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRE-
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. IT STILL SEEMS
LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHWARD...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM
DESTINED TO BE MORE NOMINAL THAN MEANINGFUL.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE
ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO START TO DECIMATE THE STRATOCUMULUS
SHIELD FARTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS
RESULT OF THE DREARY START...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NOSE OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY
LLJ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PENN. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE 15Z SREF AND 12/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS NRN PENN BY
15Z MONDAY. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NOSE OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY
LLJ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PENN. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE 15Z SREF AND 12/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS NRN PENN BY
15Z MONDAY. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN OVER THE REGION IS WORKING TO
EVISCERATE WHAT WAS ONCE A RATHER WIDE EXPANSE OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT IS RATHER ROBUST WITH A COMPACT VORT CORE...STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL PVA...AND BROAD UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM PITTSBURGH
NORTHWARD...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM DESTINED TO BE MORE
NOMINAL THAN MEANINGFUL. AS SUCH...POPS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
WITH QPF REMAINING LIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTH AS LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE
ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO START TO DECIMATE THE STRATOCUMULUS
SHIELD FARTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS
RESULT OF THE DREARY START...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN OVER THE REGION IS WORKING TO
EVISCERATE WHAT WAS ONCE A RATHER WIDE EXPANSE OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT IS RATHER ROBUST WITH A COMPACT VORT CORE...STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL PVA...AND BROAD UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM PITTSBURGH
NORTHWARD...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM DESTINED TO BE MORE
NOMINAL THAN MEANINGFUL. AS SUCH...POPS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
WITH QPF REMAINING LIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTH AS LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE
ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO START TO DECIMATE THE STRATOCUMULUS
SHIELD FARTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS
RESULT OF THE DREARY START...HOWEVER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152307 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING LATE
MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152307 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING LATE
MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 151958
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 151946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA
OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK,
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST PROBABILITIES AND MOST QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF/THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT PASSES. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS UP NORTH,
AND CHANCES SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY INSTABILITY, SO WE
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH BRINGS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO A SHOWER GROUP REMAINS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE MAY GET CLOSE TO 2,000-3,000 FOOT CIGS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARDS NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANCK 345
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 345
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 345
LONG TERM...DRAG 345
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
RIP CURRENTS...345






000
FXUS61 KPHI 151946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA
OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK,
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST PROBABILITIES AND MOST QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF/THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT PASSES. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS UP NORTH,
AND CHANCES SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY INSTABILITY, SO WE
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH BRINGS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO A SHOWER GROUP REMAINS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE MAY GET CLOSE TO 2,000-3,000 FOOT CIGS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARDS NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANCK 345
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 345
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 345
LONG TERM...DRAG 345
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
RIP CURRENTS...345







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING LATE
MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS HANGING ON BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW IFR AT KFKL AND KDUJ
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

10/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING LATE
MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO
PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE
RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES
THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN
CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE
IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR STRATUS HANGING ON BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW IFR AT KFKL AND KDUJ
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT
OWING TO VLLY FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

10/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
KEYSTONE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ALREADY JUST WEST OF PA...ADJUSTED TIMING
SOME.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOOK SHOWERS OUT OF TUE AM...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
VERY FAST.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER
TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING
LATE MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THE EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
STRATUS HANGING ON BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ALLOW IFR AT KFKL AND KDUJ OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE RIDGES WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER
TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY ENDING
LATE MORNING AS DEEPER DRYING MOVES IN. TEMPS A CLOSE BLEND OF
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THE EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
STRATUS HANGING ON BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
LOOKS TO ALLOW IFR AT KFKL AND KDUJ OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 151512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW
HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 151512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW
HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151455
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL BE SENDING OUT A NEW PACKAGE HERE SHORTLY.
LAST OF THE FOG IN THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF
NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW.

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING THE TAFS AGAIN BY 1540Z...LAST OF THE FOG IN
THE UNV...IPT STRIP BURNING OFF NOW.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NW PA LATE DAY
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 FAR
SOUTH.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NW PA LATE DAY
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 FAR
SOUTH.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151159
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT MID MORNING. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO
AROUND 70 FAR SOUTH.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151159
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT MID MORNING. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO
AROUND 70 FAR SOUTH.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 151144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151144
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATED PACKAGE SENT OUT. FOG MORE EXTENSIVE THAN SOME
MORNINGS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SINCE I CAME IN AT 7 AM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 151102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
EXPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATOCU DUE TO CLEARING SKIES HAVE SETTLED IN
OVER BFD...AOO...UNV AND IPT WITH IFR AND LOWER AT THESE SITES
WITH LIFR AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE PATCHY
FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151052
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG FORMATION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND DENSE
FOG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. ANY AREAS OF
FOG...ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE... WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS CLOUDS DIMINISHED AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING QUICKLY DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THOSE MARKS.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WERE
MUTED DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED DURING CONDENSATION AT THE
SFC. WITH THAT...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE TODAY EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LIMITS MIXING...AND
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY OVERNIGHT DEW FORMATION.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR-MVFR FOG THAT DEVLOPED OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151052
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG FORMATION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND DENSE
FOG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. ANY AREAS OF
FOG...ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE... WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS CLOUDS DIMINISHED AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING QUICKLY DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THOSE MARKS.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WERE
MUTED DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED DURING CONDENSATION AT THE
SFC. WITH THAT...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE TODAY EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LIMITS MIXING...AND
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY OVERNIGHT DEW FORMATION.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR-MVFR FOG THAT DEVLOPED OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
500 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG FORMATION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND
DENSE FOG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. ANY AREAS OF
FOG...ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE... WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS CLOUDS DIMINISHED AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING QUICKLY DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THOSE MARKS.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WERE
MUTED DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED DURING CONDENSATION AT THE
SFC. WITH THAT...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE TODAY EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LIMITS MIXING...AND
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY OVERNIGHT DEW FORMATION.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR-MVFR FOG THAT DEVLOPED OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
500 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG FORMATION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND
DENSE FOG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. ANY AREAS OF
FOG...ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE... WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS CLOUDS DIMINISHED AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING QUICKLY DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THOSE MARKS.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WERE
MUTED DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED DURING CONDENSATION AT THE
SFC. WITH THAT...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE TODAY EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LIMITS MIXING...AND
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY OVERNIGHT DEW FORMATION.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR-MVFR FOG THAT DEVLOPED OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 150842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
ESPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 150842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND
OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL
AND GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIPHERY OF LAKE STRATUS HAS REMAINED STUBBORN WITH UPSTREAM
STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.
MESONET TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE PREVIOUS FROST
ADVISORY AREA...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS IT NO LONGER APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST OR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FROST FOR SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OVER WESTERN PA...AND A NORTHWARD LIFTING OF THE
STRATUS WHICH LIES OVER FAR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MAXES
ESPECTED VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z
TUE...AND SFC FRONT PUSHES FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH QPF OF A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...AND AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED OVERALL. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE DRY.

MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 150745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...AFTER SOME LCL GROUND FOG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ERLY THIS AM WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 150745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...AFTER SOME LCL GROUND FOG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ERLY THIS AM WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150646
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150646
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150646
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150646
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 150605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER ALONG THE NY BORDER ALONG THE RT 6 CORRIDOR WHERE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTH AND NORTH.

LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTH
OF THE STRATUS...LATEST MESONET READINGS HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOWER
40S ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO FROST ADVISORY IS
STILL WARRANTED DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE STRATUS TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND THIN CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MINS FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE
USUAL PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE BRIEFLY/LOCALLY
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 150605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TIER ALONG THE NY BORDER ALONG THE RT 6 CORRIDOR WHERE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MEANDER SOUTH AND NORTH.

LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTH
OF THE STRATUS...LATEST MESONET READINGS HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOWER
40S ON THEIR WAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO FROST ADVISORY IS
STILL WARRANTED DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE STRATUS TO THE
NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND THIN CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MINS FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE
USUAL PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE BRIEFLY/LOCALLY
DENSE IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRATUS SLIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR CIGS AT
IPT...WHICH SHOULD VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 150550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRATUS SLIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. TRAPPED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR CIGS AT
IPT...WHICH SHOULD VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150412
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150412
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 150356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 150356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS. RESULTING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE SRN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS
WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS
CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE LEADING EDGE
WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 150135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE CONTINUE WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THOUGH SOME OF THE
STRATOCU IS BEING A BIT MORE STUBBORN ACROSS THE COAST. THIS AREA
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL NOT QUITE SURE ON THE EXTENT OF MORE STRATOCU ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES, BUT THE MORE ROBUST MODELS INITIALIZED
TOO MOIST SO WE KEEP WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45
TO 50 DELMARVA. EXPECT SOME FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR
NORTH.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SOME EASTWARD A
FEW TIMES, ONE MOST NOTABLY SLIDING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO
LIFT OUT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL RIDGE COULD THEN BUILD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY AND A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MODEL BLEND WAS USED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS SOME WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF IT, AN INCREASE IN THE
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RIBBON OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW
ORGANIZED THE SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY MOVING
QUICKLY, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD GENERATE A TIME OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. THEREFORE, POPS WERE MAINTAINED AS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED MAINLY LATE /HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS/.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY, TAKING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH IT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN
THE WEAK CAA REGIME FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ZONES, AND IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER MIXING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND
OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A COOL AIRMASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER
MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A NEW AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MOST OF
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HANG ON FOR AWHILE AND
CAUSE CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. OVERALL, LESS CERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
DOMINATE OVERALL. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCHEDULED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA. OVERALL, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE
PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A
SMALL CHC OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND
10-12Z BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR. DESPITE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
TUESDAY AND INCREASING SOME, IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS
OVERALL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS SOME.
THE WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE SEAS AS OF NOW MAY REACH 5 FEET ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 150135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WE CONTINUE WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THOUGH SOME OF THE
STRATOCU IS BEING A BIT MORE STUBBORN ACROSS THE COAST. THIS AREA
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STILL NOT QUITE SURE ON THE EXTENT OF MORE STRATOCU ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES, BUT THE MORE ROBUST MODELS INITIALIZED
TOO MOIST SO WE KEEP WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR.

WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45
TO 50 DELMARVA. EXPECT SOME FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR
NORTH.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SOME EASTWARD A
FEW TIMES, ONE MOST NOTABLY SLIDING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO
LIFT OUT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL RIDGE COULD THEN BUILD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY AND A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MODEL BLEND WAS USED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS SOME WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF IT, AN INCREASE IN THE
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RIBBON OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW
ORGANIZED THE SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY MOVING
QUICKLY, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD GENERATE A TIME OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. THEREFORE, POPS WERE MAINTAINED AS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED MAINLY LATE /HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS/.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY, TAKING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH IT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN
THE WEAK CAA REGIME FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ZONES, AND IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER MIXING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND
OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A COOL AIRMASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER
MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A NEW AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MOST OF
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HANG ON FOR AWHILE AND
CAUSE CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. OVERALL, LESS CERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
DOMINATE OVERALL. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCHEDULED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA. OVERALL, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE
PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A
SMALL CHC OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND
10-12Z BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR. DESPITE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
TUESDAY AND INCREASING SOME, IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS
OVERALL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS SOME.
THE WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE SEAS AS OF NOW MAY REACH 5 FEET ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KCTP 150055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 150055
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LONG STRETCH OF
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE
ONLY TIME WHEN RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
23Z RAP /AND LATEST REGIONAL SFC OBS/ INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY
CENTER OF SFC-925 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING ACROSS SWRN AND
SCENT PENN OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL SUPPLY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND L/V WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATO CU OR RIBBONS OF THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING BY.

HOWEVER...THE LIGHT/WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
/COMBINED WITH LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE OFF THE UPSTREAM GLAKES AND
1-2 DEG C OF COOLING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/ WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU DRIFTING ESE FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.

THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN
0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925 MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT 850 MB.

EXPECTING THAT WE SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRATO CU FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF
33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS 4 OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST NRN
MTN COUNTIES - FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND THIN STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MERCURY FALLING
STEADILY TO CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S
NORTH...TO MID 40S SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 142327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 142327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEADING TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AREA OF LOW- ER CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO
THE SRN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRATUS WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY
LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR AT THE
LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR AREAS IN THE MORNING.
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.

A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 142150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO L
ONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 142150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS SRN
NEW YORK AND NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BELOW NORMAL PWATS OF LESS THAN 0.75 OF AN INCH...LIGHT SFC-925
MB WINDS /GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE N-E/...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AT 850 MB.

THIS HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS WILL BRING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON ACROSS NRN
PENN...WHERE TEMPS OF 33-37 ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COLLABORATED WITH WFOS PIT...BUF...AND PBZ TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FROM 08-13Z MONDAY.

SHALLOW/THIN STRATOCU CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NW COUNTIES LATE
TODAY...SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS AT LLVLS ACQUIRE AN OVER-LAND FETCH FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL HELP TO PAINT A NICE
SUNSET...BUT WILL INTERFERE LITTLE WITH TEMPS FALLING STEADILY TO
CHILLY READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE 30S NORTH...TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP SPREAD...AND SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 43-47F
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ005-006-010-
037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO L
ONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR...EXP VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES
INTO MON WITH DIURNAL CU AND AN EVENTUAL INCR IN AC.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN
THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS
COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW
LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD
TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY
UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE
ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR...EXP VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES
INTO MON WITH DIURNAL CU AND AN EVENTUAL INCR IN AC.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 141951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 141951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUE...BUT SCT LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE COOLER...DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR LATER
TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH JUST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. EXPECT CHILLY MORNINGS /POSS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ AND DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
5F BELOW NORMAL.

GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADED
OUR WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FLOW TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS STARTING
SAT...AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SOME EASTWARD A
FEW TIMES, ONE MOST NOTABLY SLIDING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO
LIFT OUT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL RIDGE COULD THEN BUILD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY AND A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MODEL BLEND WAS USED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS SOME WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF IT, AN INCREASE IN THE
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RIBBON OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW
ORGANIZED THE SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY MOVING
QUICKLY, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD GENERATE A TIME OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. THEREFORE, POPS WERE MAINTAINED AS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED MAINLY LATE /HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS/.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY, TAKING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH IT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN
THE WEAK CAA REGIME FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ZONES, AND IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER MIXING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND
OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A COOL AIRMASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER
MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A NEW AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MOST OF
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HANG ON FOR AWHILE AND
CAUSE CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. OVERALL, LESS CERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
DOMINATE OVERALL. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCHEDULED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA. OVERALL, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR. DESPITE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
TUESDAY AND INCREASING SOME, IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS
OVERALL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS SOME.
THE WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE SEAS AS OF NOW MAY REACH 5 FEET ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK FOR
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SOME EASTWARD A
FEW TIMES, ONE MOST NOTABLY SLIDING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO
LIFT OUT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST. A POTENTIAL RIDGE COULD THEN BUILD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH GIVES WAY AND A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MODEL BLEND WAS USED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN UTILIZED THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS SOME WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF IT, AN INCREASE IN THE
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RIBBON OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW
ORGANIZED THE SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY MOVING
QUICKLY, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD GENERATE A TIME OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. THEREFORE, POPS WERE MAINTAINED AS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED MAINLY LATE /HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS/.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY, TAKING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH IT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS WITHIN
THE WEAK CAA REGIME FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ZONES, AND IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
DEEPER MIXING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND
OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A COOL AIRMASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER
MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH A NEW AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MOST OF
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, AS AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HANG ON FOR AWHILE AND
CAUSE CLOUDINESS DUE TO THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. OVERALL, LESS CERTAINTY
WITH THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT HOWEVER THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
DOMINATE OVERALL. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES IS SCHEDULED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA. OVERALL, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR. DESPITE THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
TUESDAY AND INCREASING SOME, IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS
OVERALL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS SOME.
THE WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME THOUGH SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE SEAS AS OF NOW MAY REACH 5 FEET ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN LESS CERTAINTY WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK FOR
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 141903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 302
SHORT TERM...DRAG 302
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 302
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 302
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 141903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 302
SHORT TERM...DRAG 302
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 302
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 302
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 141903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 302
SHORT TERM...DRAG 302
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 302
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 302
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 141903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CIRRUS NEAR 300MB SPREADS NEWD ACROSS
THE AREA AND THICKENS A BIT.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR
CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS AND 45 TO 50 DELMARVA. .

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

THE LOW CLOUDINESS YOU SEE EDGING NEWD FROM WVA MAY START SHOWING
A SCT-BKN DECK ALONG THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA NEAR KRDG TOWARD 10Z
AS PER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM 1000-850 MB RH BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER AND MORE EWD WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.

EXCEPTION COULD BE MD E SHORE AND SE PA WHERE A DECK OF CLOUDS
FROM WVA MAY ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING. NEEDS REEVALUATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR WITH ~30000 FT CIRRUS OF VARIABLE THICKNESS
SWEEPING NEWD THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
COAST BY 02Z/15. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND. SMALL CHANCE PATCHY
FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO A SMALL CHC
OF A 3000 FT DECK OF SC EDGING INTO THE KRDG AREA AROUND 10-12Z
BUT LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.

MONDAY...VFR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000 FT
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

ATTM THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECK OF 3000 FT SC DEVELOPING
IN SE PA/NE MD SOONER THAN FCST BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE CURRENT SC DECK EDGING NEWD FROM WVA. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
REEVALUATED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET THROUGH MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES. ATLC SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3
FT. DE BAY WAVES MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS. WINDS VARIABLE ONSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING THEN ONSHORE SELY MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 302
SHORT TERM...DRAG 302
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 302
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 302
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 141901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 141901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS DISAPPEARUS. MIXING AND DRYING HAS DEALT THEM A HEAVY
BLOW. HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA WON/T IN
THEMSELVES BE ENOUGH TO BUMP SKY COVER UP...BUT THAT AND THE
ADVANCE OF SOME STRATUS FROM WV WILL LEAD TO A BIT HIGHER CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT IN THE SC AND SERN COS. NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL COVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY MAKES THE USUAL HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME
FOG. WILL ADD ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST INTO THE COLDEST AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS WHERE IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLR OR JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE FORM OF
VALLEY FOG ALSO ON ORDER WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A WORRY...MAINLY
NORTH. MINS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LOWER CLOUDS IN THE SC/SE IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND DISSIPATE AS WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED SUN MORNING. GOOD SHORT
WAVE MOVING W-E OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MON NIGHT.
THE POPS SHOULD BE HIGH IN THE N AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN THE
SW...BUT SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY OR BETTER IN THE SE. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXES MONDAY WILL GET PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS...AND THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE 50S IN MOST PLACES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE RAIN AND EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE NRN TIER DIP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DIURNAL CU FIELD IS DISSIPATING ALREADY...BUT ADDITIONAL
LOW-ER CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRATUS WHICH WILL
TRY TO SLIDE IN FROM THE S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
HUNG UP OVER NRN WV AND IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING AT THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE A KNOCK ON THE NRN
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORE- CLEAR
AREAS IN THE MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND
SUNRISE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE W-E THRU THE GREAT LAKES
AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES.
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GT LKS HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEA TNGT AS DIURNAL CU
DSPTS. SOME SC AND CS WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER BEFORE
CLRG OUT OVRNGT. TEMPS IN THE COLDEST VLY LOCATIONS COULD DROP
INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT ANY FROST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VRY
LMTD/ISOLD WITH WK WRM ADVCTN ABV THE DECOUPLED SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR...EXP VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES
INTO MON WITH DIURNAL CU AND AN EVENTUAL INCR IN AC.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GT LKS HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEA TNGT AS DIURNAL CU
DSPTS. SOME SC AND CS WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER BEFORE
CLRG OUT OVRNGT. TEMPS IN THE COLDEST VLY LOCATIONS COULD DROP
INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT ANY FROST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VRY
LMTD/ISOLD WITH WK WRM ADVCTN ABV THE DECOUPLED SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP
FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS
SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT
LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR...EXP VFR CONDS UNDER HIGH PRES
INTO MON WITH DIURNAL CU AND AN EVENTUAL INCR IN AC.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS61 KPHI 141713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P
RIP CURRENTS...1P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P
RIP CURRENTS...1P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P
RIP CURRENTS...1P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAD BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND
S NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF KPNE-KVAY. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LIGHT WIND..MAINLY NW EXCEPT LIGHT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOUT NOW ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND AND RATHER COOL
TEMPS...7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT LOWER 50S
URBAN CENTERS.

THE 12Z/14 50 50 BLENDED NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY UPDATED INTO
THE FCST GRIDS AND WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A SUNNY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
FROM CIRRUS THRU AC AND SC LAYERS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. BLENDED 12Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRENDING SW IN THE AFTN EXCEPT SEA BREEZES COAST.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, PASSING
OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH
POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE REMAINING
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM WIND.
SMALL CHANCE PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WITH MULTI LAYERS AOA 4000
FT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY (SC, AC, CI). LIGHT WIND BECOMING SW
DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA S NJ AND DE WATERS CANCELLED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS NOW.

QUIET TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NO HEADLINES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK- MOVING SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY
LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR NJ WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER TODAY. LOW RISK
DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1P
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1P
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1P
RIP CURRENTS...1P







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLDG HIGH PRES UNDR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER TDA. HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE
MAINTAINED AND SPPRTD BY MRNG RAOBS/NR TERM MDL DATA.

ANOTHER COLD NGT IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH
LINGERS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...MDLS AGREE ON INITIATION OF WARM
ADVCTN ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AS WELL AS AN UPR CLD INCRS TWD MRNG AS
JET STREAK DRAGS AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TWD THE WRN LAKES.

WITH A WARMING COLUMN OVR SRN COUNTIES...INCRSD CS OVR THE N...AND
PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...SEE NO SERIOUS FROST ISSUE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE USED THE COLDER...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS FOR LOW TEMPS THAT ARE PROGGED APPROXIMATELY A
DOZEN DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS BY
MON NGT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TIMING AND THE LIKELY POPS OVR THE NRN HALF OF
THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE BTR UPR DYNAMICS AND MSTR SUPPLY ARE
ANTICIPATED.

COOL SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS
AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP DIURNAL CU AND VFR CONDS THRU TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AM ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLDG HIGH PRES UNDR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN DRY AND
COOL WEATHER TDA. HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE
MAINTAINED AND SPPRTD BY MRNG RAOBS/NR TERM MDL DATA.

ANOTHER COLD NGT IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH
LINGERS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...MDLS AGREE ON INITIATION OF WARM
ADVCTN ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AS WELL AS AN UPR CLD INCRS TWD MRNG AS
JET STREAK DRAGS AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TWD THE WRN LAKES.

WITH A WARMING COLUMN OVR SRN COUNTIES...INCRSD CS OVR THE N...AND
PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...SEE NO SERIOUS FROST ISSUE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE USED THE COLDER...BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS FOR LOW TEMPS THAT ARE PROGGED APPROXIMATELY A
DOZEN DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS BY
MON NGT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TIMING AND THE LIKELY POPS OVR THE NRN HALF OF
THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE BTR UPR DYNAMICS AND MSTR SUPPLY ARE
ANTICIPATED.

COOL SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS
AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN
PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP
MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP DIURNAL CU AND VFR CONDS THRU TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AM ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS61 KPHI 141531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAS BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND S
NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS TODAY AS WELL.

HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A NW TO N WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THEREFORE, A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL TEMPS IS
ANTICIPATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES TO OUR
EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 60S IN THE POCONOS.

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY,
PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS,
WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
BY 21Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA
WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE
REMAINING MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW
CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA THROUGH 19Z FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS.

SCA LOWER DE BAY HAS EXPIRED.

QUIET TONIGHT AND NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WILL GO WITH MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NJ, BUT CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1131
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1131
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1131
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 141531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
DRY OUT THE SC THAT HAS BRIEFLY BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER SE PA AND S
NJ. ITS ALREADY DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE CIRRUS TODAY AS WELL.

HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AROUND 4-430 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A NW TO N WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THEREFORE, A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL TEMPS IS
ANTICIPATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES TO OUR
EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 60S IN THE POCONOS.

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY,
PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS,
WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND UNDER 15 KT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
BY 21Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2000-3000 FT SE PA S NJ AND THE DELMARVA
WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE
REMAINING MOIST LAYER NEAR THE INVERSION. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW
CIRRUS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA THROUGH 19Z FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS.

SCA LOWER DE BAY HAS EXPIRED.

QUIET TONIGHT AND NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WILL GO WITH MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NJ, BUT CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1131
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 1131
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 1131
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 141510
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1110 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL BUT THE TINIEST PORTION OF THE EARLIER LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EVAPORATED...BUT A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE
MOISTURE RE-APPEAR AS CUMULUS AS THE RESULTING SUNSHINE SELF-
DESTRUCTED. NEVERTHELESS...ALL IS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLY-NORMAL DAY. FALL IS IN THE AIR.
A TREE OR TWO HINTING AT SOME COLOR. EVEN SAW A WOOLY WORM THE
OTHER DAY NEXT TO MY CRYSTAL BALL...WEATHER ROCK...DICE...EIGHT-
BALL AND ALMANAC. NOT ONE OF THEM SAID WHAT THE PERCENTAGE OF SKY
COVER WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL CLEARING OF THE CU FIELD TONIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY TWO
AREAS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. THE ONE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE INCHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE OTHER NOSING INTO THE SC MTNS LATER TONIGHT.
NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY
MAKES THE USUALY HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG.

HAVE YET TO DECIDE TO ADD ANY MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST INTO
THE COLDEST AREAS JUST YET...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS. MINS
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
CLOUD COVER.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
LATE ON MONDAY...SPREADING THICK CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA.
CONTINUED TO SHAVE POPS OFF FROM THE DAYLIGHT HRS IN THE NW...AND
WILL LEAVE OTHER PLACES COMPLETELY DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE MON NIGHT. HIGH PROB FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH THE MAIN WAVE...THEN WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER
POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMNT HAS ALLOWED EVERY AIR FIELD TO RISE ABOVE IFR. THE
DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO BFD AND THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORE-CLEAR AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 141510
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1110 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL START A LONG STRETCH OF COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE THE ONLY TIME WHEN
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL BUT THE TINIEST PORTION OF THE EARLIER LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EVAPORATED...BUT A GREATER PORTION OF THE AREA HAS SEEN THE
MOISTURE RE-APPEAR AS CUMULUS AS THE RESULTING SUNSHINE SELF-
DESTRUCTED. NEVERTHELESS...ALL IS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLY-NORMAL DAY. FALL IS IN THE AIR.
A TREE OR TWO HINTING AT SOME COLOR. EVEN SAW A WOOLY WORM THE
OTHER DAY NEXT TO MY CRYSTAL BALL...WEATHER ROCK...DICE...EIGHT-
BALL AND ALMANAC. NOT ONE OF THEM SAID WHAT THE PERCENTAGE OF SKY
COVER WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL CLEARING OF THE CU FIELD TONIGHT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY TWO
AREAS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. THE ONE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE INCHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE OTHER NOSING INTO THE SC MTNS LATER TONIGHT.
NAM IS MORE-INSISTENT THAT THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ONLY
MAKES THE USUALY HIGHER RH IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME FOG.

HAVE YET TO DECIDE TO ADD ANY MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST INTO
THE COLDEST AREAS JUST YET...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS. MINS
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S...AND SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
CLOUD COVER.

MOISTURE DEPRIVED UPPER TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLAKS
LATE ON MONDAY...SPREADING THICK CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PA.
CONTINUED TO SHAVE POPS OFF FROM THE DAYLIGHT HRS IN THE NW...AND
WILL LEAVE OTHER PLACES COMPLETELY DRY. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM WILL BE MON NIGHT. HIGH PROB FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS MON EVE WITH THE MAIN WAVE...THEN WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL BRING HIGHER
POPS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY MAINLY LATER MON NIGHT. THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISO SHOWERS LINGERING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 700
MB TEMPS SLIP TO AROUND 0C. RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD PA LATE
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR /AS 700MB
TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C/. LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL BRING A SERIES OF
CHILLY MORNINGS TO CENTRAL PA...WITH DAILY HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5F
BELOW NORMAL.

DIFFS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LATER PERIODS...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
REGION PROTECTED FROM DEEP MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HINTS
AT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE
EC KEEPS RUN OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPROVEMNT HAS ALLOWED EVERY AIR FIELD TO RISE ABOVE IFR. THE
DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING INTO BFD AND THE SRN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORE-CLEAR AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
AREA VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
REDUCTIONS IN THE FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z TUES. LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
WILL LAST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING STARTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU...AM FOG POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO




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