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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CAT POPS ACROSS REGION AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH TOWARD I-80...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WV. AS LOW PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
BE SHUNTED EAST TO THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK AND PUSH EAST OF THE
RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY. A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS
AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. CONSIDERING THE SLOW SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE
GENERALLY ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON ESTIMATED SPEED
AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE PROLONGED IFR
VISIBILITIES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...LOW MVFR/IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED AND WEAK
MIXING.

BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF PIT
BY 12Z AND EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING THE
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TONIGHT EXPECT ESE TO NW WIND SHIFT.
SPEED WILL STAY UNDER 10KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CAT POPS ACROSS REGION AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH TOWARD I-80...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WV. AS LOW PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
BE SHUNTED EAST TO THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK AND PUSH EAST OF THE
RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY. A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS
AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. CONSIDERING THE SLOW SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE
GENERALLY ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON ESTIMATED SPEED
AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE PROLONGED IFR
VISIBILITIES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...LOW MVFR/IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED AND WEAK
MIXING.

BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF PIT
BY 12Z AND EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING THE
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TONIGHT EXPECT ESE TO NW WIND SHIFT.
SPEED WILL STAY UNDER 10KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040016
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED
POPS UP AND SHIFTED HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. CONSIDERING THE SLOW SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE
GENERALLY ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON ESTIMATED SPEED
AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE PROLONGED IFR
VISIBILITIES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...LOW MVFR/IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED AND WEAK
MIXING.

BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF PIT
BY 12Z AND EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING THE
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TONIGHT EXPECT ESE TO NW WIND SHIFT.
SPEED WILL STAY UNDER 10KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040016
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED
POPS UP AND SHIFTED HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. CONSIDERING THE SLOW SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE
GENERALLY ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON ESTIMATED SPEED
AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE PROLONGED IFR
VISIBILITIES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...LOW MVFR/IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED AND WEAK
MIXING.

BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF PIT
BY 12Z AND EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING THE
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TONIGHT EXPECT ESE TO NW WIND SHIFT.
SPEED WILL STAY UNDER 10KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 032341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 032341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032305
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032305
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL PA IN REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADAR AT 22Z SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING
SOUTHWEST PA AT NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE EVENING
FROM CLEARFIELD SOUTH THRU THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...AS MUCH
HIGHER PWATS SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE HIGHEST PWATS
ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL
WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ARND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR
100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE
SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
IMPLIES THE CHC OF THUNDER ACROSS THE W MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED
POPS UP AND SHIFTED HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED
POPS UP AND SHIFTED HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032118
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LIKELY
POPS FARTHER INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LIKELY
POPS FARTHER INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LIKELY
POPS FARTHER INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LIKELY
POPS FARTHER INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING
ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE
RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY
HEFTY LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 032008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ALONG THE RIDGES INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS H500 TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE.
STILL...MOST IF NOT ALL EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SHOULD NOT
SUFFER ANY WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.

THEREAFTER...WHILE A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM
THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW HAVE DISSIPATED...WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
COOKED UP UNDER THE EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAK STORM OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE AND
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES USE A 20-30KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING A
BRIEF SURGE IN PWATS INTO THE AREA. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE MADE TO
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 20Z/4PM OVER MY SWRN ZONES...MOVING STEADILY
NE DURING THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE STEADY RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HAVE OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING US MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL.

BASIN AVERAGE QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-18 HOUR EVENT LOOKS TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN .50" - 1.00" OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAURELS WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THE AREA
IS PRETTY WET GIVEN RECENT RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...BUT THE MODELS DO COOK
UP A BIT OF INSTABILITY SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF ID DAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH
KEEPING CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031748
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031748
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031748
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031748
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS TOOK THEIR SWEET TIME ARRIVING...AND JUST A FEW
CUMULUS ARE MANAGING TO POP UP UNDER THE TRANSLUCENT HIGH CLOUD
DECK. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WANDER UPWARD FAIRLY STRONGLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER THEIR
TRAJECTORY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS LID WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA
MAINTAINING ITSELF ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES AND POINTS NEARBY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY LAYER RH
VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCE
NORTHWARD AND CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL RAIN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST RATHER RAPIDLY NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031458
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1058 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE RATHER SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LURKING IN A QUITE PERVASIVE WAY
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE UPPER FLOW...THEY WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES
AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY
LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031458
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1058 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE RATHER SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LURKING IN A QUITE PERVASIVE WAY
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE UPPER FLOW...THEY WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES
AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY
LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031458
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1058 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE RATHER SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LURKING IN A QUITE PERVASIVE WAY
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE UPPER FLOW...THEY WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES
AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY
LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031458
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1058 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE RATHER SLOW TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME DECENT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LURKING IN A QUITE PERVASIVE WAY
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE UPPER FLOW...THEY WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SET TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...AND GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY PROJECTING POSITIVE AREA MAINTAINING ITSELF
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE RELEGATED GENERALLY TO THE RIDGES
AND POINTS NEARBY. HOWEVER...GIVEN DECENT LIFT AND FAIRLY HEFTY
LAYER RH VALUES...CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DOMINATE THE SCENE. WITH JET CURVATURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN THE
REGION...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...THE
JET AXIS STARTS TO SLINK EASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031419
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONG
EARLY SUMMER SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS EVEN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY SWRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VICINITY AFTER 21Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031419
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONG
EARLY SUMMER SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS EVEN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY SWRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VICINITY AFTER 21Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VCNTY BY 20Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AT LEAST MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VCNTY BY 20Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AT LEAST MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031139
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDS AT AOO/JST TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN WITH SCT-BKN 050 CIGS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OH
VLY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE
APPALACHIANSAND THRU THE MID ATLC AND BRING RAIN AND REDUCED
FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION
SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1016 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR TORONTO...
SOUTHEAST TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LLVL NEG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TOPPED
BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLY COOL EARLY MORNING IS IN STORE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
THE AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT/ TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TODAY AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS..AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG REACHES
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS WRN PENN...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF
DECREASING VALUES OCCURS AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARD ROUTE 219.

THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM
CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN INCREASED
QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25
OF AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, BUT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME
WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, LEADING TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME AIRPORTS.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. RAIN MAY
START MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHEN
THE BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST
BELOW MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE
RISK ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030707
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
230 AM UPDATE...

LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MAIN CHANGES WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERN PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE U40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. AN ALREADY TIGHT T/TD SPREAD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR BENEATH A SHIELD OF
GENERALLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THIS
AREA TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

MINS EARLY TODAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH
LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE 12-16 HOUR EVENT WILL
BE JUST SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND 1 TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOST COULD PICK
UP AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY NOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DESPITE MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF
PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS
INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG WILL IMPACT AOO AND LNS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. DRIER AIR PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE MAY IMPROVE VIS A
LITTLE SOONER THAN FCST BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO JULY CLIMO FOR
ONSET OF DISSIPATION. FCST FOG AT IPT/BFD WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
ALTHOUGH BOTH SITES HAD FOG YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THE
025 CIG AT UNV TO LAST SO KEPT VFR..BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG HERE EITHER TWD DAYBREAK. SAME IS TRUE AT MDT.
FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE/LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION TRENDS CLOSELY AT
JST WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN. ONCE FOG/HZ
OR SHALLOW STRATUS LIFTS 12-14Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH SCT-BKN CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 050 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
OH VLY SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS THE MID ATLC WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS TO THE ENTIRE
AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030435
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS.

THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE
CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED
COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING
MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE
LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE
WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH
AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF
I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD
TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO
AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. DID BRING FOG TO LNS A
LITTLE FASTER...GIVEN CURRENT OB. LNS ALSO HAD A SHOWER
EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 030343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. DID BRING FOG TO LNS A
LITTLE FASTER...GIVEN CURRENT OB. LNS ALSO HAD A SHOWER
EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 030219
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
EVERYTHING IS WELL ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE VA-NC
BORDER AND TO OUR EAST JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART
IT WILL DRY OUT.

THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT. IF MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN THE COVERAGE
OF FOG MAY BE GREATER, ESPECIALLY IF THE BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ARE STABLE EVEN IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AT ACY/MIV AROUND SUNSET THIS EVE AS THE
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ACY). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS; TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LESS THAN
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ BEACHES TO BE RIGHT AT THE
CUSP FOR MODERATE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES.

HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES.

HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES.

HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES.

HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD SHRA IN THE SRN MTNS. THESE ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS BY
THE VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT NOTHING TO BE LEFT IN AN HOUR. BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER ERN PA SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
ADDED SOME FOG TO THE NRN VALLEYS UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND. ALL IS WELL. A RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022322
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG...GIVEN HOW THINGS
WENT LAST NIGHT AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ALSO LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT AND FCST TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT OR
LOWER...CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 12-13Z ON FRIDAY...GIVEN
STRONG EARLY JULY SUN.

PRIOR TO THIS...STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG MD BORDER NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SOME SHOWERS MADE IT TO NEAR UNV JUST BEFORE 6 PM. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER WAS JUST SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A SHOWER
OR STORM NW REGIONS ON TUE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
PA MONDAY INTO TUE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 022142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS.

SOME HIGH CLDS AND SMOKE AT HIGH LEVELS...WITH CU ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MD BORDER. FEW SHOWERS NEAR
LNS. HAVE A HEAVIER SHOWER SE OF BEDFORD.

WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALL DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT
WAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022112
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022112
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY AND ANY FORCING IS WELL
SOUTH OF REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WERE MODIFIED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD...WITH NO POPS ALONG I-80. TEMPS STILL
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURNALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST
AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS PORTS AT TIMES. PATCHY MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDRY
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO
NRN WV. VCSH INCLUDED AT KMGW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 022001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 022001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
STABLE STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY- DRIVEN
CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MDLS DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FAIRLY PERVASIVE AWAY FROM I-80
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD SEEN BREAKS PREVIOUSLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SKIES RATHER CLOUDY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO
KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE RELEGATED TO THE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW IS SET TO RIDE UP THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THAT WILL BE. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLYING
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY NAM/CANADIAN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH IT. GIVEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE
GFS...IT TOO SEEMS THAT WHILE IT SPREADS QPF FARTHER INTO THE
AREA...THAT IT REALLY FAVORS MOSTLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS IS BASED PURELY ON WHERE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE WEAK JET STREAK TRACKS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE POPS WERE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REALLY A FAIRLY MEAGER ON FRIDAY. SHEAR IS
WEAK...INSTABILITY IS PRETTY PALTRY AS WELL...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES
MANAGE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WERE CARRIED PRIMARILY OVER THE RIDGES AND AROUND
MORGANTOWN.

ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WIDESPREAD 60S AT NIGHT...AND 70S DURING
THE DAY. THIS LOOKS JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURANALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

THE MOIST AIR MASS DOESNT COMPLETELY EVACUATE THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WELL TO THE EAST AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WANDER NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND OVER MOST SITES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT FOG FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT RIDES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KMGW BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FAIRLY PERVASIVE AWAY FROM I-80
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD SEEN BREAKS PREVIOUSLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SKIES RATHER CLOUDY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO
KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE RELEGATED TO THE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW IS SET TO RIDE UP THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THAT WILL BE. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLYING
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY NAM/CANADIAN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH IT. GIVEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE
GFS...IT TOO SEEMS THAT WHILE IT SPREADS QPF FARTHER INTO THE
AREA...THAT IT REALLY FAVORS MOSTLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS IS BASED PURELY ON WHERE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE WEAK JET STREAK TRACKS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE POPS WERE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REALLY A FAIRLY MEAGER ON FRIDAY. SHEAR IS
WEAK...INSTABILITY IS PRETTY PALTRY AS WELL...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES
MANAGE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WERE CARRIED PRIMARILY OVER THE RIDGES AND AROUND
MORGANTOWN.

ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WIDESPREAD 60S AT NIGHT...AND 70S DURING
THE DAY. THIS LOOKS JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEEPING FOCUS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS
THE NAM/ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. THE MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TAKES
OVER SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE 300MB JET CORRIDOR REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE DIURANALLY LESS FAVORABLE.

THE MOIST AIR MASS DOESNT COMPLETELY EVACUATE THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WELL TO THE EAST AT THAT POINT...SO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

MUCH DRIER AIR INVADES FOR SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY REMAINING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SLOWLY WARMING TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WANDER NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND OVER MOST SITES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT FOG FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT RIDES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KMGW BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021634
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS FAIRLY PERVASIVE AWAY FROM I-80
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPS
IN AREAS THAT HAD SEEN BREAKS PREVIOUSLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SKIES RATHER CLOUDY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO
KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY.

RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE RELEGATED TO THE AREAS CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW IS SET TO RIDE UP THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME PINNING DOWN EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THAT WILL BE. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLYING
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY NAM/CANADIAN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH IT. GIVEN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ON THE
GFS...IT TOO SEEMS THAT WHILE IT SPREADS QPF FARTHER INTO THE
AREA...THAT IT REALLY FAVORS MOSTLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS IS BASED PURELY ON WHERE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE WEAK JET STREAK TRACKS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE POPS WERE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REALLY A FAIRLY MEAGER ON FRIDAY. SHEAR IS
WEAK...INSTABILITY IS PRETTY PALTRY AS WELL...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES
MANAGE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WERE CARRIED PRIMARILY OVER THE RIDGES AND AROUND
MORGANTOWN.

ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN A FAIRLY TIGHT WINDOW
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WIDESPREAD 60S AT NIGHT...AND 70S DURING
THE DAY. THIS LOOKS JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WANDER NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND OVER MOST SITES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT FOG FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT RIDES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KMGW BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATER RISK
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB
0.75" PW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE
40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
STATIONARY FRONT TO WAGGLE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG IT FROM THE OHIO
VALELY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NORTH WILL STILL BE LARGELY PROTECTED
FROM CONVECTION THANKS TO MUCH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STABLE
STRATIFICATION.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021515
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE
THIS MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF WILL LIE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF
MY SOUTHERN TIER BY MID MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS THIS SAME AREA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ISOLD CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF MY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT... REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTS TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CLIPPING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE
NIGHT VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE
LOWER PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR
SRN AIRSPACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON-TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SPLAYED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS FRONT IS PALPABLE WITH 50S
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER 60S LURKING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN OUR POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AS A FAIRLY WEAK AND HARDLY
DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE WORKS DOWN THE FRONT.

AS CLOUDS REMAIN IN CONTROL...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH IS JUST A TAD SHORT OF THE NORMAL
LOWER 80S IN EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SPLAYED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS FRONT IS PALPABLE WITH 50S
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER 60S LURKING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN OUR POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AS A FAIRLY WEAK AND HARDLY
DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE WORKS DOWN THE FRONT.

AS CLOUDS REMAIN IN CONTROL...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH IS JUST A TAD SHORT OF THE NORMAL
LOWER 80S IN EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SPLAYED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS FRONT IS PALPABLE WITH 50S
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER 60S LURKING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN OUR POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AS A FAIRLY WEAK AND HARDLY
DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE WORKS DOWN THE FRONT.

AS CLOUDS REMAIN IN CONTROL...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH IS JUST A TAD SHORT OF THE NORMAL
LOWER 80S IN EARLY JULY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR RESULTING IN VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM
OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE POSITIONED OVER
NRN MD/VA. EXPECT PCPN TO BE CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM
THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 021140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING...SEPARATING MORE SOUPY 1"+ PW FROM SUB 0.75" PW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA. MEAN UPPER TROF LIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNIGN AND AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR AXES TRACKING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN MD WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THIS SAME
AREA. WITH LITTLE TO NO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OR SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF
MY AREA LATER TODAY AND MEANDER ENE ALONG THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT...REMAINING MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON
LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THAT CLIPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 02Z WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOME LATE NIGHT VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING NRN AREAS MAINLY DRY THANKS TO THE LOWER
PW AIR TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY
BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN
THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S...AND RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST WILL CAUSE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AS ASSOC
SFC WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LVL EASTERLY
WIND/PWAT ANOMALIES IN GEFS OUTPUT TARGET THE S TIER COUNTIES FOR
A CHC OF SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE PM HOURS. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN
INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IMPLYING TSRA POSS ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. DRIER AIR MASS ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES OVR
UPSTATE NY SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DRY FRI/FRI
NIGHT.

GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS BTWN 18-20C SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY UNIFORM
MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U70S. CONSALL OUTPUT INDICATING MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND CONCENTRATED VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHC OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN-TUE...DUE TO MDLS
DEPICTION OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN AS IT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020844
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA
ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NEAR ZONE OF HI PWS.
THEREFORE WILL CONFINE POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH NRN AREAS STAYING MAINLY DRY AS LOWER PW AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY BUT THE LOW HUMIDITY IS WELCOME. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN AS IT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LGT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR WILL PROMOTE SOME RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY 14-15Z.
NARROWING T/TD SPREADS FAVORS 09-12Z TIMING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
AIRFIELDS...WHILE BFD SHOULD BE TRENDING TO THE UPSIDE. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM OVER THE EXTREME SRN AIRSPACE...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF PA/MD BORDER. EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE
CONFINED OVER THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE DELMARVA.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF AIRSPACE.

SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020803
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT FOR NOW WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED SHRA IN THE TAFS
FOR ACY/MIV. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TAF SITE
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020803
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT FOR NOW WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED SHRA IN THE TAFS
FOR ACY/MIV. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TAF SITE
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND
WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWING A BATCH OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR
THE LOWER GRT LKS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN NO PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN
THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG IN
THE EARLY AM FCST. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS...NOT
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM
THE L50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID SEND THE 03Z TAFS.

BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOME...GIVEN MID LVL CLDS UPSTREAM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020552
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWING A BATCH OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR
THE LOWER GRT LKS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN NO PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST THIS WILL REMAIN
THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG IN
THE EARLY AM FCST. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS...NOT
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM
THE L50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L60S ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID SEND THE 03Z TAFS.

BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOME...GIVEN MID LVL CLDS UPSTREAM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID SEND THE 03Z TAFS.

BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOME...GIVEN MID LVL CLDS UPSTREAM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID SEND THE 03Z TAFS.

BACKED OFF ON THE FOG SOME...GIVEN MID LVL CLDS UPSTREAM.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MI ENHANCING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS THEY NEAR
PA. BUT THEY ARE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. TEMPS ON TRACK. FOG IS
MENTIONED APPROPRIATELY IN THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST CLOUD
TRENDS AND T/TD SPREADS.

830 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS ONLY INCHING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL
OVER THE CENRAL COS. BUT ALL IS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM
COULD KEEP THE SKY LESS THAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESP IN THE WEST.
THAT COULD ACTUALLY HELP THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO BAD
- BUT WILL NOT DROP IT SINCE DEWPOINTS STILL NEAR 60F AND UPSLOPE
NOT KIND TO THE WESTERN MTNS.

6 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SHOWERS ARE GONE. WILL HOLD A SLIGHT CHC
IN THE FAR NE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HRS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED AWAY. MDLS DO HANG ONTO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SO FOG
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV...
VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS
MOUNTAIN REGION IN NORTHEAST PA TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
DENOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. LAST FEW FRAMES OF REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES...IN A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE REMAINING SHOWERS DYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S) AND DOWNSLOPING WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

WEAK 1017 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LYING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING TO CALM
WINDS...PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE DEEP NORTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THANKS TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSING AREAS TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MD AND WV...EXTENDING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRIER...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE
MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL
TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AFTERNOON AND
TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN
AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ITSELF

GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE
BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS GOING OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.

MAINLY A SCT-BKN AREA OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL HAZY
OUT...BUT BULK OF SMOKE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NOW...CAN SEE IT
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SE TO SOUTHERN OH...ON THE OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICS. YESTERDAY IT WAS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

NOT MUCH ON RADAR FOR A CHANGE.

21Z TAFS SENT.

MADE SOME CHANGES...WHICH I WILL USE ON THE 00Z PACKAGE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OF RECENT TIMES...AND THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINT...CROSS OVER
TEMPERATURE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS TO FORM LATE.
ALSO THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THU MORNING...GIVEN THE STRONG
EARLY JULY SUN.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



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