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000
FXUS61 KCTP 200341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING AS A
RESULT OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EARLIER SCATTERED EVENING
SHOWERS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND MODERATELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCREASING POPS WERE PAINTED IN AS A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/TSRA SLIDES EAST FROM OHIO.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING /LINKED TO A COMPACT UPPER
SHORTWAVE/ HEADS ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK...THE GREATEST ML
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAURELS.

POPS WILL REACH CATEGORICAL 80-100 PERCENT ACROSS A FEW OF THE NW
COUNTIES BETWEEN 03-06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING FURTHER S AND
E AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS AND FRAGMENTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PENN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION
AFTER 07Z.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF IN THE 60S IN ALL AREAS...REACHING
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL PA.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER OH AND MOVING EAST. TOPS WERE
COOLING...BUT NOW STORMS ARE WEAKENING SOME.

MINOR CHANGES MADE ON THE 03Z PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
LATE...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THEM FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON SO
FAR.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING IN
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING AS A
RESULT OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EARLIER SCATTERED EVENING
SHOWERS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND MODERATELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCREASING POPS WERE PAINTED IN AS A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/TSRA SLIDES EAST FROM OHIO.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING /LINKED TO A COMPACT UPPER
SHORTWAVE/ HEADS ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK...THE GREATEST ML
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAURELS.

POPS WILL REACH CATEGORICAL 80-100 PERCENT ACROSS A FEW OF THE NW
COUNTIES BETWEEN 03-06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING FURTHER S AND
E AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS AND FRAGMENTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PENN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION
AFTER 07Z.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF IN THE 60S IN ALL AREAS...REACHING
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
LATE...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THEM FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON SO
FAR.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING IN
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING AS A
RESULT OF CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EARLIER SCATTERED EVENING
SHOWERS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...AND MODERATELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCREASING POPS WERE PAINTED IN AS A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/TSRA SLIDES EAST FROM OHIO.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING /LINKED TO A COMPACT UPPER
SHORTWAVE/ HEADS ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK...THE GREATEST ML
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LAURELS.

POPS WILL REACH CATEGORICAL 80-100 PERCENT ACROSS A FEW OF THE NW
COUNTIES BETWEEN 03-06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING FURTHER S AND
E AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS AND FRAGMENTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER CENTRAL PENN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION
AFTER 07Z.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF IN THE 60S IN ALL AREAS...REACHING
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
LATE...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THEM FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON SO
FAR.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING IN
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN


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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 192337
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS A NEARLY
N/S RIBBON OF RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.0/ SLIDES EAST.
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z WED.

PRECIP CHCS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 04-06Z...BEFORE A SHIELD OF
ANVIL CIRRUS...THEN PRECIP ENTERS OUR NW ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA TSRA MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SE MICH ATTM.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 80F ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES
THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH RES WRF ARW AND HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING AND INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TWD 06Z /THOUGH THE
HRRR HAS TRENDED TWD A FEW-SEVERAL HOUR LATER ONSET OF THE
CONVECTION/. THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STEADILY
WEAKEN/FRAGMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOWER PWATS AND A COOLER/MORE
STABLE LLVL ENVIRONMENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL PENN.

POPS AFTER 06Z WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL REMIAN
AOB 15 PERCENT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUSQ VALLEY.

PERVIOUS DISC BELOW...

A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
LATE...GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THEM FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON SO
FAR.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINS OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING IN
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEFORE THE WEEKEND IF
THEN.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 192233
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS A NEARLY
N/S RIBBON OF RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.0/ SLIDES EAST.
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z WED.

PRECIP CHCS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 04-06Z...BEFORE A SHIELD OF
ANVIL CIRRUS...THEN PRECIP ENTERS OUR NW ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA TSRA MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SE MICH ATTM.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 80F ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES
THROUGH 00Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH RES WRF ARW AND HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING AND INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TWD 06Z /THOUGH THE
HRRR HAS TRENDED TWD A FEW-SEVERAL HOUR LATER ONSET OF THE
CONVECTION/. THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STEADILY
WEAKEN/FRAGMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOWER PWATS AND A COOLER/MORE
STABLE LLVL ENVIRONMENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL PENN.

POPS AFTER 06Z WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL REMIAN
AOB 15 PERCENT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUSQ VALLEY.

PERVIOUS DISC BELOW...

A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WITH...JUST A FEW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
SO MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS
MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 192233
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE
CANADIAN BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON
HEAT BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS A NEARLY
N/S RIBBON OF RELATIVELY LOWER PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.0/ SLIDES EAST.
CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z WED.

PRECIP CHCS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 04-06Z...BEFORE A SHIELD OF
ANVIL CIRRUS...THEN PRECIP ENTERS OUR NW ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA TSRA MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SE MICH ATTM.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 80F ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES
THROUGH 00Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH RES WRF ARW AND HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING AND INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES TWD 06Z /THOUGH THE
HRRR HAS TRENDED TWD A FEW-SEVERAL HOUR LATER ONSET OF THE
CONVECTION/. THIS AREA OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD STEADILY
WEAKEN/FRAGMENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOWER PWATS AND A COOLER/MORE
STABLE LLVL ENVIRONMENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL PENN.

POPS AFTER 06Z WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL REMIAN
AOB 15 PERCENT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUSQ VALLEY.

PERVIOUS DISC BELOW...

A SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WITH...JUST A FEW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
SO MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS
MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192123
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED
UP POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAIN FREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WITH...JUST A FEW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
SO MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS
MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 192123
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED
UP POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAIN FREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WITH...JUST A FEW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. 21Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
SO MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS
MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT CHC OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KCTP 191951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAIN FREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAIN FREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WEAKENING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DIVERGENT
FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING...DECREASING PRESSURE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...AND
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
SHEAR...FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CAPE
VALUES ARE LOW...WITH AN AVG OF 500-1K J/KG THROUGHOUT MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WITH THE
850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH PA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON 12Z
OPERATIONAL AND GEFS OUTPUT. DUE TO THE CHANGING POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE LOW...HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL
HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THREAT OF ANY
HVY RAINFALL. MODEL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE THURSDAY. BEFORE THE LOW PASSES...TEMPS COULD REACH UP TO
THE LOW 80S. AFTER THURSDAY/S NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARM UP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191806
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAINFREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191806
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. SHORT-WAVES IN THE WEAK FLOW MOVING UNDER THE CANADIAN
BLOCK WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. BUT IT SHOULD PROTECT US FROM THE LATE SEASON HEAT
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAINFREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191801
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...

A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS OUR WEST-CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM CENTRE COUNTY DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. BUMPED UP
POPS AND ADDED TEXTURE TO THE GRIDS WITH 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM
ESTIMATED POPS/QPF.

RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN. LOCAL GAGES SHOW ABOUT 0.10 IN
WESTERN AREAS OF STATE COLLEGE. BUT SOME STREAKS ON RADAR OF 0.1
TO 0.4 INCHES. IN SOMERSET COUNTY...STRONGER CELLS SHOWS CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF ESTIMATED RAINFALL. RADAR AND HRRR IMPLY BEST CHANCE
RAIN WILL BE FROM CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
HUNTINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTY AS THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS HEAD
SLOWLY EAST.

THE 3KM AND 4KM MODELS IMPLY MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIES OFF A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE 6 PM.



&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RAINFREE IN HRRR AFTER 0000 UTC TONIGHT
THROUGH 0600 UTC.

BUT THE HRRR DOES SHOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE MIDWEST MOVING
INTO WESTERN PA AFTER 0600 UTC. CHANCE RAIN WILL CLEARER INCREASE
BEFORE SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS.

THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF AND
NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 191728
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191728
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191728
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191728
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
KFIG SOUTH TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE AND WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST POPCORN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA AND THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.SO
MORE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-
LATE MORNING SLOWLY SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR
LIKELY IN AM FOG AND THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR AS THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND LIFT AND SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE EAST.

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM KFIG SOUTH TO
KAOO AND KJST AND EVENTUALLY THE KUNV AREA. ADDED SHOWERS VICINITY
TO THESE SITES. THIS COULD MOVE FARTHER EAST.

MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RANDOMLY PLACED ABOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA OVER NEXT 12 HOURS.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-LATE MORNING SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND
THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR AS THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND LIFT AND SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE EAST.

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM KFIG SOUTH TO
KAOO AND KJST AND EVENTUALLY THE KUNV AREA. ADDED SHOWERS VICINITY
TO THESE SITES. THIS COULD MOVE FARTHER EAST.

MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RANDOMLY PLACED ABOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA OVER NEXT 12 HOURS.

THINGS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT...MORE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN WESTERN PA BY MID-LATE MORNING SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST. VFR IN EAST BUT AREAS MVFR LIKELY IN AM FOG AND
THEN SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WEST CHANCE EAST.
THU-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT
DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 191514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. RADAR HAS
DETECTED SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD AND HAS MOVED INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTY. SOME HINTS OF WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM. USED THESE MODELS TO ADD
TEXTURE TO THE FORECAST SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TRIED TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AS THERE IS LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...3KM HRRR UPDATES FROM
NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
PA ALL AFTERNOON AND NOW IMPLY MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
S-SE COUNTIES IN LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY GET BETTER DURING DAY CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SURGE OF CAPE AND PW INTO WESTERN PA IN THE SREF
AND NAM...SIMILAR TO OLDER GEFS/GFS IMPLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND TO GET THE POPS AND THE 12KM
NAM TO ADD SOME TEXTURE TO CONVECTION AND RAIN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF POPS/PDF IMPLIES SHOWERS COMING INTO WEST AROUND 1500 UTC
AND MOST OF CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF REGION BY LATE EVENING. SREF IS
KIND OF OPTIMISTIC SOUTHEAST PA COULD HAVE YET ANOTHER MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE KEY FEATURES ARE THE RETROGRADING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHICH IS TAKING THE UMPH OUT OF THE SYSTEMS CUTTING UNDER THIS
FEATURE. IN MOST MODELS THE NEAR 1SD ABOVE NORMAL PW SURGES WEAKEN
AS THE MOVE INTO PA. THUS MORE OPTIMISTIC...SREF-LIKE IN THE WEST
THAN THE EAST WITH RAINFALL AND NOT REALLY CONFIDENT GOING LIKELY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GRUMM/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 191156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UNDER THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOR DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN
WETTER THAN REALITY. THE SREF AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL TODAY THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE FOLLOWING
MODELS.

LATEST 4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR IMPLY SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOTHING
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT. SORT OF A QUANDARY HOW TO EFFECTIVELY
USE THESE DATA VERSE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
GENERATED BY RELEASING INSTABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES (CPS). BIASED POPS LOWER TOWARD
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT DO NOT USE CPS.

MODELS IMPLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. FIRST BATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SW PA WILL SHRINK AS IT ADVECTS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURE WISE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD FADE FAST AROUND SUNSET.

BUILDING 5940M RIDGE IN SOUTHERN US AND BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE ARE STUCK IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THEM. AN ANEMIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SREF LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW SOME SURGE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PW AND SOME CAPE
INTO WESTERN PA. POPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO EAST AS THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE BLOCK. BEST CHANCE...AS MENTIONED
BELOW FOR SEVERAL TENTHS WOULD BE IN WEST VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN
EASTERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS: PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE
ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD
DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA OVR THE W GRT LKS TODAY.
HOWEVER...LEAD SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER MICHIGAN/INDIANA AT 08Z IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS AND
CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORT POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA WILL LIKELY SHIELD
THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY ACROSS CENTRAL PA
WITHIN PLUME OF ABV NORMAL PWATS. THE GREATEST AMT OF SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY TO BE OVR THE EXTREME NW MTNS AND SE COUNTIES...WITH
THE FEWEST BREAKS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GEFS 925 TEMPS
IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...IN THE U70S
TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE ANY EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD
SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVR THE W GRT LKS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENG BY LATE THIS WEEK. A LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO PA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA OVR THE W GRT LKS TODAY.
HOWEVER...LEAD SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER MICHIGAN/INDIANA AT 08Z IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSS TSRA WILL BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS AND
CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORT POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA WILL LIKELY SHIELD
THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY ACROSS CENTRAL PA
WITHIN PLUME OF ABV NORMAL PWATS. THE GREATEST AMT OF SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY TO BE OVR THE EXTREME NW MTNS AND SE COUNTIES...WITH
THE FEWEST BREAKS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. GEFS 925 TEMPS
IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA...IN THE U70S
TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD CAUSE ANY EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD
SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN WED.

HAVE RAISED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE AREA WED...AS MDLS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. BLEND OF
OPER AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY RAINFALL WED WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES SE OF HARRISBURG...TO ARND A HALF
INCH ACROSS WARREN CO. HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HVY TSRA POSSIBLE. CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MDLS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SPOT AMTS OF ARND 2
INCHES ON WED ACROSS THE W MTNS. A MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR MASS
OVR EASTERN PA WILL MAKE TSRA UNLIKELY THERE.

GEFS 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE M70S OVR
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L80S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY...AS UPPER LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST PASS TO PA...TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA BY AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON
00Z OPER AND GEFS OUTPUT. SOUTHERLY LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGH
PWATS WILL HAVE PASSED NE OF THE AREA THURSDAY...LIMITING THE
THREAT OF ANY HVY RAINFALL. MDL BLENDED QPF IS IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE THURSDAY. THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS BLW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD DRIER WX FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION ON NE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL THREATEN WESTERN PA DURING THE
FRI-SUN TIME FRAME...WHILE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS
LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. THERE MAY BE ISSUE WITH AM LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY FLOW OVR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 190727
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190727
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190727
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190727
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST
LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KJST EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG
AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR...SHOULD ENSURE DRY WX THE REST OF THE NIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RAD
COOLING IS ALREADY YIELDING PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
LATEST MDL DATA SUPPORTS MCLDY SKIES BY DAWN OVER ALL BY PERHAPS
THE NW MTNS. WHERE SKIES REMAIN MCLEAR...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE NW MTNS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE INCREASED DWPTS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS WITH LOW FROM THE L50S NORTH...TO L60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF PA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LEAD
SHORTWAVE...SEEN OVER ILLINOIS AT 05Z IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PA DURING THE AFTN HOURS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST
GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND POSS TSRA WILL
BE ALONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND THTE AXIS OVR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. 00Z GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS POPS OVR 50 PCT ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...LINGERING SFC RIDGE ACROSS SE PA
WILL LIKELY SHIELD THAT AREA FROM PRECIP TODAY.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TODAY WILL AVERAGE MCLDY WITH GREATEST
AMTS OF SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
GEFS 925 TEMPS IMPLY HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
AREA...IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KJST EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG
AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 190343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1143 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED AS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER BEING OVER
THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THERE PROBS ARE VERY LOW.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY
UPWARD...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WERE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KJST EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG
AND LOWERING VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190214
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED AS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER BEING OVER
THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THERE PROBS ARE VERY LOW.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY
UPWARD...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND
LOWERING VSBYS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...ATTM HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE KJST AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190214
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED AS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER BEING OVER
THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THERE PROBS ARE VERY LOW.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY
UPWARD...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND
LOWERING VSBYS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...ATTM HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE KJST AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS A CHESTERTOWN TO
DOVER TO CAPE MAY LINE.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S UP NORTH AND IN THE 60S
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH, A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL TENDENCY
IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT BOOK REXY,
ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED PROTECTION
OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE DUE. THIS
HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS,
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
(ENSEMBLES NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP
RUBBER BAND BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY.
AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO
BE ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
DRY. THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A
BIT UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS
LOWER, STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT
AS TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM
THE NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A
CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS
KICKER LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO
UNDERGO A SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. SO WE KEPT POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD
CONSENSUS ABOUT INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY
BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN
OFFSHORE SFC LOW FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST ON TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WIND MAY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
FROM AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH 8 OR 9 SECOND
SWELLS SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS A CHESTERTOWN TO
DOVER TO CAPE MAY LINE.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S UP NORTH AND IN THE 60S
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH, A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL TENDENCY
IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT BOOK REXY,
ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED PROTECTION
OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE DUE. THIS
HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS,
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
(ENSEMBLES NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP
RUBBER BAND BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY.
AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO
BE ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
DRY. THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A
BIT UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS
LOWER, STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT
AS TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM
THE NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A
CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS
KICKER LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO
UNDERGO A SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. SO WE KEPT POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD
CONSENSUS ABOUT INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY
BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN
OFFSHORE SFC LOW FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST ON TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WIND MAY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
FROM AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH 8 OR 9 SECOND
SWELLS SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KCTP 182355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SMALL SHOWERS FIRED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY UP
INTO NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY. THESE SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING LEADING TO ANOTHER MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY UPWARD...AND
SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND
LOWERING VSBYS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...ATTM HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE KJST AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 182355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SMALL SHOWERS FIRED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY UP
INTO NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY. THESE SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING LEADING TO ANOTHER MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY UPWARD...AND
SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO FOG AND
LOWERING VSBYS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...ATTM HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA TAFS OF KMDT AND KLNS...AS CONFIDENCE OF FORMATION IS
LOWER. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...LIKELY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AT
THESE LOCATIONS.

CURRENT TIMING OF FOG IS FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 07Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE DENSEST FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE KJST AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER MORNING FOG...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND LEAST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A VERY SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. CURRENTLY...LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SURFACE FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR...WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...MORNING FOG CHANCES EACH DAY. OVERALL VFR...BUT
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. STILL CHANCE OF SHRA...BUT DECREASING CHANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 182319
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SOME SMALL SHOWERS FIRED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY UP
INTO NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY. THESE SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING LEADING TO ANOTHER MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY UPWARD...AND
SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182319
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HANGS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

SOME SMALL SHOWERS FIRED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY UP
INTO NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY. THESE SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING LEADING TO ANOTHER MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT SLOWLY UPWARD...AND
SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF
UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE
LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR...
BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY
FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TUMULTUOUS TIMEFRAME
FOR WEATHER...GEFS/CMC...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PWATS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE
GFS/EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL CURRENTLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RIDGE SHOULD TILT
NEGATIVELY AND SLOWLY FLATTEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CANADIAN...MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES  ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW...MOVING BELOW
HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND SPECIFICALLY HUDSON
BAY...HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING IT IS CUTOFF FROM MAJOR MOISTURE
SOURCES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD
DELAY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE
CANADIAN/EC FURTHER WEAKENING AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM. BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LIKELY POPS BY
THURSDAY ...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. USED A BLEND OF MODELS
LEADING TOWARD THE EC AND MOS GUIDANCE.

BY FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DROPS OFF
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.THOUGH
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR WEAK
SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT COULD ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. QPF SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SREF
WAY OVERDONE LIKELY DUE TO A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS. CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE SETS IN THE UPPER
60`S ACROSS THE DELMARVA. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN LINE OR JUST LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SETS IN THE 50`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL
TENDENCY IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT
BOOK REXY, ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED
PROTECTION OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE
DUE. THIS HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS, NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS (ENSEMBLES
NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP RUBBER BAND
BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY. AGREE WITH THE MID
SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER DRY.
THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS LOWER,
STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT AS
TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM THE
NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS KICKER
LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO UNDERGO A
SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SO WE KEPT
POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD CONSENSUS ABOUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION: THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT,VFR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING FROM
AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 3 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER
10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. QPF SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SREF
WAY OVERDONE LIKELY DUE TO A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS. CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE SETS IN THE UPPER
60`S ACROSS THE DELMARVA. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN LINE OR JUST LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SETS IN THE 50`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL
TENDENCY IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT
BOOK REXY, ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED
PROTECTION OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE
DUE. THIS HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS, NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS (ENSEMBLES
NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP RUBBER BAND
BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY. AGREE WITH THE MID
SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER DRY.
THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS LOWER,
STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT AS
TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM THE
NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS KICKER
LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO UNDERGO A
SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SO WE KEPT
POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD CONSENSUS ABOUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION: THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT,VFR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING FROM
AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 3 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER
10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. QPF SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SREF
WAY OVERDONE LIKELY DUE TO A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS. CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE SETS IN THE UPPER
60`S ACROSS THE DELMARVA. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN LINE OR JUST LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SETS IN THE 50`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL
TENDENCY IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT
BOOK REXY, ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED
PROTECTION OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE
DUE. THIS HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS, NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS (ENSEMBLES
NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP RUBBER BAND
BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY. AGREE WITH THE MID
SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER DRY.
THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS LOWER,
STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT AS
TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM THE
NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS KICKER
LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO UNDERGO A
SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SO WE KEPT
POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD CONSENSUS ABOUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION: THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT,VFR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING FROM
AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 3 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER
10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. QPF SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SREF
WAY OVERDONE LIKELY DUE TO A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS. CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE SETS IN THE UPPER
60`S ACROSS THE DELMARVA. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN LINE OR JUST LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE SETS IN THE 50`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH,
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL
TENDENCY IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT
BOOK REXY, ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED
PROTECTION OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE
DUE. THIS HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS, NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS (ENSEMBLES
NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP RUBBER BAND
BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY. AGREE WITH THE MID
SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER DRY.
THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A BIT
UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS LOWER,
STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT AS
TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM THE
NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS KICKER
LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO UNDERGO A
SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SO WE KEPT
POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD CONSENSUS ABOUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW
FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION: THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT,VFR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THIS EVENING WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE
EAST ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING FROM
AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 3 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER
10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KCTP 181849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF
UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE
LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR...
BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY
FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF
UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE
LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR...
BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY
FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF
UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE
LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR...
BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY
FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEK. SHOWERS FROM A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO REBUILD OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. UPPER TROF
UNDERCUTTING A PREVAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE VIRGINIAS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PA AND PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LCL BKN-OVC CIGS INTO THE
LAURELS. RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR...
BUT SLGT TO CHC POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO TRACK
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
STILL...UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TUE MORNING.

MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED NORTH AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. A BIT OF MUGGINESS
WILL BE FELT IN THE AIR...AND SOME LCL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN VALLEY
FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY... IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK FORCING SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AND DEEPER UPPER
LOW DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE FLATTER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN A
RICHER AMBIENT MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PW ~1.7").

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GREATEST AMTS OF
SUNSHINE FOUND NORTH...AND LESS BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAXES
SIMILAR TO...RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS LATE AFTN/EVE. MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRA POSSIBLE AT KJST AND KAOO TONIGHT. KUNV AND KMDT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SCT FOG LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AIRFIELDS TUE 09Z-13Z. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID
WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-FRI...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WK SFC LOW PRES WAS CENTERED ACRS SRN WV...WITH A STNRY BNDRY
EXTENDING INTO SRN PA. BEST CHC FOR SHWRS THIS EVE WL BE S OF THE
BNDRY WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT EXISTS. COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM BUT
MRNG RAOBS INDICATE SOME CAPPING...LMTG INSTBY. THE PCPN SHOULD
GRDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS
THE LOW PUSHES E. TEMPS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WK SFC LOW PRES WAS CENTERED ACRS SRN WV...WITH A STNRY BNDRY
EXTENDING INTO SRN PA. BEST CHC FOR SHWRS THIS EVE WL BE S OF THE
BNDRY WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT EXISTS. COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM BUT
MRNG RAOBS INDICATE SOME CAPPING...LMTG INSTBY. THE PCPN SHOULD
GRDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS
THE LOW PUSHES E. TEMPS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. BASED ON
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK ANY
RAIN CHANCE TILL TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MODIFY SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE 12;30 PM UPDATE BASED ON THE 16Z METARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
10 KNOTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST IS PRESENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SMALL ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG
POSSIBLE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE COAST (ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 181747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. BASED ON
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK ANY
RAIN CHANCE TILL TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MODIFY SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE 12;30 PM UPDATE BASED ON THE 16Z METARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
10 KNOTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST IS PRESENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SMALL ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG
POSSIBLE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE COAST (ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181739
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181739
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 181624
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. BASED ON
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK ANY
RAIN CHANCE TILL TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MODIFY SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE 12;30 PM UPDATE BASED ON THE 16Z METARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181624
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. BASED ON
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK ANY
RAIN CHANCE TILL TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MODIFY SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE 12;30 PM UPDATE BASED ON THE 16Z METARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1144 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1144 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1144 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1144 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 181417
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS NEARLY BURNED OFF. DIFFERENT REGIMES ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID
CLOUD STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE COOLER AIR STRATUS
FILAMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO COVER THE NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
IS A NICE CLEAR SLOT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

STRENGTHENING SE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 1.7" PW AIR NORTHWARD TO
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/AFT
00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181417
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS NEARLY BURNED OFF. DIFFERENT REGIMES ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID
CLOUD STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE COOLER AIR STRATUS
FILAMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO COVER THE NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
IS A NICE CLEAR SLOT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

STRENGTHENING SE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 1.7" PW AIR NORTHWARD TO
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/AFT
00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181417
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS NEARLY BURNED OFF. DIFFERENT REGIMES ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID
CLOUD STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE COOLER AIR STRATUS
FILAMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO COVER THE NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
IS A NICE CLEAR SLOT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

STRENGTHENING SE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 1.7" PW AIR NORTHWARD TO
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/AFT
00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181417
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS NEARLY BURNED OFF. DIFFERENT REGIMES ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID
CLOUD STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST PA...WHILE COOLER AIR STRATUS
FILAMENTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO COVER THE NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN
IS A NICE CLEAR SLOT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA.

STRENGTHENING SE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 1.7" PW AIR NORTHWARD TO
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/AFT
00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN
PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT
LIKELY POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS
PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY
WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS
JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181313
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK
ANY RAIN CHANCE TILL AFTER 20Z. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
9:30 AM UPDATE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181313
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH THE 9:30 AM UPDATE, PUSHED BACK
ANY RAIN CHANCE TILL AFTER 20Z. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE
9:30 AM UPDATE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KCTP 181114
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE
LOCALLY DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS MARK THE POSITION
OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE GRADIENT IN
SFC DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 181114
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE
LOCALLY DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS MARK THE POSITION
OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE GRADIENT IN
SFC DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED MVFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
A STALLED DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY. THE
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FA.
THE BOUNDARY IS NOTICEABLE BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE
SOUTH OF IT AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE NORTH. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW AND THE OHIO VALLEY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MEAN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH WV. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE RIDGES. BIG DIFFERENCE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
FAR TO NORTH TO FAR SOUTH TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTH SEASONABLE AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...SEASONABLE TEMPS BUT
RATHER HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
A STALLED DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY. THE
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FA.
THE BOUNDARY IS NOTICEABLE BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE
SOUTH OF IT AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE NORTH. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW AND THE OHIO VALLEY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MEAN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH WV. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE RIDGES. BIG DIFFERENCE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
FAR TO NORTH TO FAR SOUTH TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTH SEASONABLE AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...SEASONABLE TEMPS BUT
RATHER HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH
NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES
MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS
NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN
PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE
AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY
SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE
LOCALLY DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS MARK THE POSITION
OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE GRADIENT IN
SFC DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FIRST HINTS OF FOG BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONS AT KBFD
AND KSEG. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AT 03Z...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MOST
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALONG THE USUAL WATERWAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY CONTAINED IN TAFS FOR
KBFD...KJST...KAOO AND KIPT...WITH VSBYS FORECAST 1/2 MILE. ALSO
FORECASTING THE TYPICAL 300 FT CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 09Z.

MORNING FOG ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY
INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN
SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE
LOCALLY DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS MARK THE POSITION
OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE GRADIENT IN
SFC DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BROAD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LKLY
POPS ON D3/WED...AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PUSHES
SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE CWA. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED AOA NORMAL AND COULD
INTERACT WITH THE SLOW MOVG BNDRY TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO THE AREA. THIS SET-UP MAY PERSIST INTO D4/THU. AN EVEN
BLEND WAS EMPLOYED IN THE D3-4 TIMEFRAME FOR MOST WX ELEMENTS
GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR 6H QPF AMTS WHICH
INCORPORATED THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET.

CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST DROPS OFF QUICKLY BY D5/FRI
AND DOES NOT RECOVER THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS IS
DUE TO A SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING BLOCKING DEVELOPING OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE WRN ATLC...MIGRATORY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SE/SCENTRL CONUS AND SEEMINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY/MID ATLC. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY/BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
AND A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN...DID
NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE 00Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. ONE
POSSIBLE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS CYCLE IS PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD A
`LESS UNSETTLED` PATTERN BY SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FIRST HINTS OF FOG BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONS AT KBFD
AND KSEG. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AT 03Z...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MOST
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALONG THE USUAL WATERWAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY CONTAINED IN TAFS FOR
KBFD...KJST...KAOO AND KIPT...WITH VSBYS FORECAST 1/2 MILE. ALSO
FORECASTING THE TYPICAL 300 FT CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 09Z.

MORNING FOG ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY
INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN
SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STALLED DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY. THE
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FA.
THE BOUNDARY IS NOTICEABLE BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE SOUTH
OF IT AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE NORTH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTWARD
MOVING LOW AND THE OHIO VALLEY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MEAN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH WV. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE RIDGES. BIG DIFFERENCE IN AIR MASS FROM
THE FAR TO NORTH TO FAR SOUTH TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTH SEASONABLE
AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...SEASONABLE TEMPS
BUT RATHER HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE UPR OH
VALLEY THIS MRNG WITH NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID
LVL MSTR ACRS ITS NRN FLANK.  RESULTING CLDS SHOULD PRECLUDE IFR FOG
FOR PORTS IN VCNTY OF PIT...BUT LLVL MSTR POOLING ALNG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR ESPECIALLY NR MGW.  MORE IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED/SCTD OVR A
MOIST SFC LYR.

GENERAL VFR IF FORECAST AFTR DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY SCT
SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STALLED DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY. THE
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FA.
THE BOUNDARY IS NOTICEABLE BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE SOUTH
OF IT AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE NORTH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTWARD
MOVING LOW AND THE OHIO VALLEY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MEAN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH WV. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THERE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE RIDGES. BIG DIFFERENCE IN AIR MASS FROM
THE FAR TO NORTH TO FAR SOUTH TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTH SEASONABLE
AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...SEASONABLE TEMPS
BUT RATHER HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE UPR OH
VALLEY THIS MRNG WITH NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID
LVL MSTR ACRS ITS NRN FLANK.  RESULTING CLDS SHOULD PRECLUDE IFR FOG
FOR PORTS IN VCNTY OF PIT...BUT LLVL MSTR POOLING ALNG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR ESPECIALLY NR MGW.  MORE IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED/SCTD OVR A
MOIST SFC LYR.

GENERAL VFR IF FORECAST AFTR DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY SCT
SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL
TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL
TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL
TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER VIRGINIA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE
ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 11-3.9 IR SHOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MARYLAND/WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WAVERS TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID-WEST, WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON..STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE EXTREME SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY DON`T LOOK TO GET NORTH OF DOVER TODAY. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS PWATS SWELL
TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES, COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE RAINFALL.

ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER PWAT AIR IN PLACE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MODIFY
SO WE EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY, LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED, FASTER WEST-EAST MOVEMENT, AND A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THREAT THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE LOW-LEVEL INTO THE REGION...EVERYWHERE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
THE DELMARVA, WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND DON`T THINK THE
SURFACE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR UPGLIDE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
SO WE STAY MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS...BLEND OF THE MET/MAV LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE THIS WEEK, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF MEAN TROUGHING AND ONSHORE
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST VA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A EARLIER END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA LATE IN THE DAY,
BUT THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE
SHARPENING LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL RESIDE WEST OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FCST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE CLOSE
TO CLIMO.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIPRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HASN`T JUMPED ON IT YET, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRAWS MARINE AIR INLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WAVE OF LOPRES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THAT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. THIS LOW
OF PAC NW ORIGIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO APPRECIABLE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE DURING ITS CROSS-COUNTRY TREK. ACCORDINGLY, THE SETUP
DOES NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OR A WASHOUT,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS INITIALLY CONFINED TO WEST
OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRY TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS
THURSDAY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
DELMARVA/NORTHEAST MD/SOUTHEAST PA.

A RIDGE OF HIPRES OVER EASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW THE
HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOONER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD POSITION THE REGION IN COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT ACY AND MIV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A THICKENING STRATOCU DECK
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...PRECIP EXITS SRN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...STRATUS OR FOG POSSIBLE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. BEST SETUP WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
(ACY/MIV).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE TRANQUIL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS THEN VEER TOWARDS THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LOPRES MOVES OFF THE VA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT. SCA
POTENTIAL LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KCTP 180713
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL KEEP THE
AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS LKLY MARK THE
POSITION OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED AND
POTENTIALLY WET DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. QPF
VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION CONCERNS
ARE TEMPERED. STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH WEDNESDAY THE BEST
DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST.

THE EC/GFS AND GUIDANCE HAS A FINGER OF THE RETREATING LOW REMAIN OFF
THE COAST AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
LOW HAS NO UPPER LEVEL STEERING AND COULD SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BOUNDARY TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TIMING AND POSITION VARY...THOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD TEMPER ANY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FIRST HINTS OF FOG BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONS AT KBFD
AND KSEG. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AT 03Z...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MOST
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALONG THE USUAL WATERWAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY CONTAINED IN TAFS FOR
KBFD...KJST...KAOO AND KIPT...WITH VSBYS FORECAST 1/2 MILE. ALSO
FORECASTING THE TYPICAL 300 FT CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 09Z.

MORNING FOG ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY
INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN
SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180713
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL KEEP THE
AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR STLT SHOWS CLOUDS MOVG INTO THE SWRN ZONES IN ADVANCE
OF COMPACT MID-LVL S/WV AND WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL KY.
MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLR WITH FOG/ST DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME FOG WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING.

THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR PIT
SEWD INTO SWRN SOMERSET COUNTY. THESE RETURNS LKLY MARK THE
POSITION OF A QSTNRY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 5-10F SW-NE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS ACRS THE FRONTAL ZONE.

THE MODELS TRACK THE MID-LVL S/WV EWD FROM KY THRU THE CENTRAL
APPLCHNS TO THE VA TIDEWATER/SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 12Z
TUE. STRENGTHENING SE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT 2
INCH PW AIR POOLED OVER ERN VA NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SRN 1/2-1/3 OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT/AFT 00Z PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVG THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA
INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR
NEUTRAL 500MB HGHT FALLS AND A SFC LOW REACHING NRN/LWR MI VCNTY
BY 12Z WED. THE D1 SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN DELMARVA SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST.

CONCEPTUALLY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION OR
MSTR CONNECTION /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ BTWN THE DEPARTING AND
APPROACHING SFC SYSTEMS VIA SELY FLOW ALONG AN ILL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE RATHER COMPLEX WHICH RESULTS
IN LESS THAN AVG FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
POPS/QPF...THE MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH IS LKLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LG
SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH BETTER MSTR/INSTABILITY. PWATS ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS ANOTHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
INCREASING PCPN POTNL. FCST HIGHS MAY BE HINDERED TO SOME EXTENT
BY CLOUDS/PCPN WHILE MINS TREND WARMER ESP RELATIVE TO RECENT
NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED AND
POTENTIALLY WET DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. QPF
VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION CONCERNS
ARE TEMPERED. STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH WEDNESDAY THE BEST
DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
CORRESPONDING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST.

THE EC/GFS AND GUIDANCE HAS A FINGER OF THE RETREATING LOW REMAIN OFF
THE COAST AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
LOW HAS NO UPPER LEVEL STEERING AND COULD SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BOUNDARY TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TIMING AND POSITION VARY...THOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD TEMPER ANY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FIRST HINTS OF FOG BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONS AT KBFD
AND KSEG. WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AT 03Z...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. MOST
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY...AND ALONG THE USUAL WATERWAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY CONTAINED IN TAFS FOR
KBFD...KJST...KAOO AND KIPT...WITH VSBYS FORECAST 1/2 MILE. ALSO
FORECASTING THE TYPICAL 300 FT CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 09Z.

MORNING FOG ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA TO SLOWLY
INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...AND MAY THREATEN
SOUTHWEST AIRFIELDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WED AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

MON...AM FOG. THEN VFR...BUT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN FROM SW.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA FIRST HALF DAY.
WED-THU...VFR IN GENERAL...BUT RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN LINE WITH
LATEST HIRES DATA AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.

QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL NUDGE THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AS THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM RE-FIRES TODAY...EXPECT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT TO CLIP MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER MY NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MARYLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THESE LOCALS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...LOOKS TO
BE A PRETTY DESCENT DAY WITH SOME SUN AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE UPR OH
VALLEY THIS MRNG WITH NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID
LVL MSTR ACRS ITS NRN FLANK.  RESULTING CLDS SHOULD PRECLUDE IFR FOG
FOR PORTS IN VCNTY OF PIT...BUT LLVL MSTR POOLING ALNG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR ESPECIALLY NR MGW.  MORE IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED/SCTD OVR A
MOIST SFC LYR.

GENERAL VFR IF FORECAST AFTR DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY SCT
SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN LINE WITH
LATEST HIRES DATA AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.

QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL NUDGE THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AS THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM RE-FIRES TODAY...EXPECT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT TO CLIP MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER MY NORTHERN WV/WESTERN MARYLAND
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THESE LOCALS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...LOOKS TO
BE A PRETTY DESCENT DAY WITH SOME SUN AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH
FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE UPR OH
VALLEY THIS MRNG WITH NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID
LVL MSTR ACRS ITS NRN FLANK.  RESULTING CLDS SHOULD PRECLUDE IFR FOG
FOR PORTS IN VCNTY OF PIT...BUT LLVL MSTR POOLING ALNG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN IFR ESPECIALLY NR MGW.  MORE IFR IS
ANTICIPATED AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED/SCTD OVR A
MOIST SFC LYR.

GENERAL VFR IF FORECAST AFTR DAYBREAK...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY SCT
SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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