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000
FXUS61 KPHI 010759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM HUDSONS BAY TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE THE NAM/WRF WAS
BETTER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. GFS 1C TOO COLD AT SEVERAL SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET, BUT CHILLY START TO APRIL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST TODAY.

INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA (MORE
NORTH THAN SOUTH). ALSO SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS
GETTING REACHED NORTH. THINK THE GFS TRAPPED MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY AND COLD INITIALIZATION
OF 850 MB AND 925MB TEMPS. OVERALL EVEN NORTH THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND IT WILL BE LESS OF A CLOUD ISSUE SOUTH. WITH
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON FOR MAX TEMPS TO METHODS WE
NORMALLY FOLLOW. UP NORTH PREFER HIGHER NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE
COLD INITIALIZATION BY THE GFS. IT MIGHT BE GIVING YESTERDAY`S
SNOW TOO MUCH CREDIT. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT THAT BRISK FOR APRIL,
LIKELY PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE DELAYING
THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA UNTIL APRIL
11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S BEAUTIFUL
WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK ON THE FIRST
DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS
BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT SUSPECT THE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE NORTH END OF OUR
CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE WE
ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT.
THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE.
CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD MORNING,
OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME FRAME, ITS
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH THE .01 ISOHYET
IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS
THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT
ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA
E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO NO PCPN
CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX
PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND MAGNITUDE OF S/WV
ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING.
A BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME.
THIS FAVORS AN OVERRUNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AIRPORTS. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. COMBINATION
OF A RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRING US BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE
MORNING.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM HUDSONS BAY TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE THE NAM/WRF WAS
BETTER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. GFS 1C TOO COLD AT SEVERAL SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET, BUT CHILLY START TO APRIL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST TODAY.

INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA (MORE
NORTH THAN SOUTH). ALSO SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS
GETTING REACHED NORTH. THINK THE GFS TRAPPED MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY AND COLD INITIALIZATION
OF 850 MB AND 925MB TEMPS. OVERALL EVEN NORTH THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND IT WILL BE LESS OF A CLOUD ISSUE SOUTH. WITH
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON FOR MAX TEMPS TO METHODS WE
NORMALLY FOLLOW. UP NORTH PREFER HIGHER NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE
COLD INITIALIZATION BY THE GFS. IT MIGHT BE GIVING YESTERDAY`S
SNOW TOO MUCH CREDIT. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT THAT BRISK FOR APRIL,
LIKELY PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE DELAYING
THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA UNTIL APRIL
11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S BEAUTIFUL
WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK ON THE FIRST
DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS
BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT SUSPECT THE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE NORTH END OF OUR
CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE WE
ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT.
THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE.
CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD MORNING,
OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME FRAME, ITS
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH THE .01 ISOHYET
IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS
THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT
ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA
E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO NO PCPN
CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX
PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND MAGNITUDE OF S/WV
ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING.
A BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME.
THIS FAVORS AN OVERRUNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AIRPORTS. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. COMBINATION
OF A RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRING US BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE
MORNING.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVERY TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING. PRECIP
CHANCE WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT
NRN TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH CONTINUED VFR UNDER MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVERY TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING. PRECIP
CHANCE WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT
NRN TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH CONTINUED VFR UNDER MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






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000
FXUS61 KCTP 010708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND
FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE
WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN
MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE
NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS
LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND
FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE
WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN
MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE
NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS
LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND
FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE
WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN
MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE
NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS
LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND
FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE
WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN
MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE
NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS
LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND
FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE
WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN
MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE
NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND
WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS
LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS AT BFD. LOWER CLDS COULD WORK BACK INTO
JST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SE SITES
OF LNS AND MDT.

OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS IPT. EVEN WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND...LOW
CIGS THERE AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. LNS AND
THV REMAINS THE SOLE SITES THAT ARE MVFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AS WELL AND SLOWLY
IMPROVING TOWARDS MORNING. THE TWO CAVEATS ARE ONE... IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING THEN THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND LNS...WITH
LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ALSO...THE NW FLOW AT JST AND
BFD COULD BRING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. LNS AND
THV REMAINS THE SOLE SITES THAT ARE MVFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AS WELL AND SLOWLY
IMPROVING TOWARDS MORNING. THE TWO CAVEATS ARE ONE... IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING THEN THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND LNS...WITH
LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ALSO...THE NW FLOW AT JST AND
BFD COULD BRING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. LNS AND
THV REMAINS THE SOLE SITES THAT ARE MVFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AS WELL AND SLOWLY
IMPROVING TOWARDS MORNING. THE TWO CAVEATS ARE ONE... IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING THEN THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND LNS...WITH
LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ALSO...THE NW FLOW AT JST AND
BFD COULD BRING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. LNS AND
THV REMAINS THE SOLE SITES THAT ARE MVFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AS WELL AND SLOWLY
IMPROVING TOWARDS MORNING. THE TWO CAVEATS ARE ONE... IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING THEN THERE COULD
BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND LNS...WITH
LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ALSO...THE NW FLOW AT JST AND
BFD COULD BRING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. ANY REDUCING CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010229
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OTHERWISE
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS
WHERE WET PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010027 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
830PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ADJUSTED
TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOWER CLOUD COVER AS STRATOCU
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH EXITING LOW. REST OF OVERNIGHT IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010027 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
830PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ADJUSTED
TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOWER CLOUD COVER AS STRATOCU
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH EXITING LOW. REST OF OVERNIGHT IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010013
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD
OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP IS TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND POSSIBLY BLACK ICE IN SOME OF THE AREAS WHERE WET
PAVEMENT FREEZES UP THIS EVENING.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. WITH
JST...AOO AND UNV GOING MVFR...AND THE CIGS IN THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT VFR...THE TREND FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
TOWARDS MORNING. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS IF THE
SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING. THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD. ANY REDUCING CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 312217
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312217
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312217
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312217
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE LATE SEASON SNOW TODAY WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LAST OF THE PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH MY SERN ZONES AS OF 6 PM.
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE AN ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TO COVER
THE REST OF THE MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS...OTHERWISE PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TO JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BFD
AND JST HAVE GONE TO MVFR CIGS IN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY CONTINUE TOWARDS MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT UNV AND IPT WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
THE SNOW BANDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT.EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AT JST.
 IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS CALM DUE TO DECOUPLING...THERE
COULD BE SOME REDUCED VSBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT MDT AND
LNS...WITH LNS HAVING THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD.
ANY REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN
13-15Z...CLEARING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312122 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
522 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 312007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS
SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS
SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS
SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS
SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE
WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD
SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE
OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS
SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2
HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPCTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
012-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN TRACKING EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY. ACROSS NRN PA PCPN IS
FALLING AS SNOW...SOME OF IT HEAVY...REPORTED VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE AT BRADFORD...HALF MILE AT WILLIAMSPORT AND CLEARFIELD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THAN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST OF CENTRAL PA.
ACROSS SRN PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S PCPN IN RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE AFTN HOURS GIVEN HE
AREA OF STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN
THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES
/ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB
TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-
041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311349
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS.  TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.

WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS.  TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.

WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS.  TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.

WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS.  TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.

WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE SNOW TO COME DOWN
HARD AT TIMES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES NOT REAL COLD AS OF 6 AM.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ONCE THE SNOW STARTS.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT.

COOL...BUT SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON WED.

SOME SHOWERS ON THU.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. 06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH
HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800
TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD
WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE OP.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

CLEAR OUTSIDE THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

CLEAR OUTSIDE THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

CLEAR OUTSIDE THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.

CLEAR OUTSIDE THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310925
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
525 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310925
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
525 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 310916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA NOW.
STILL SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR PLAIN RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF
NEW YORK TO CENTRAL PENN AT 08Z.

POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST EAST OF CHICAGO WILL TRACK ESE AND
MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW PRES TRACK VIA THE
LATEST OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WITH MAINLY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR THE CENTER LINE
OF THE STORM TRACK /AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN 0C 850 MB
ISOTHERM/.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO ISSUE A RATHER BORDERLINE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WET SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY /WHICH IS STAGGERED BY ABOUT 2 HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH RESPECT TO ONSET AND ENDING TIMES OF THE
MAIN IMPACT PERIOD/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY QPF
OF 0.40 TO 0.60 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

NEAR TERM HI RES /07Z HRRR/ AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM
DEPICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ACCUMS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT
MSL.

GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR /AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP/SNOW FALLING DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY/...WE STILL
THINK THAT MOST DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AOB 1200 FT MSL WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY AMTS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE INITIAL ABOVE FREEZING BLYR SHOULD MEAN THAT SOME RAIN WILL
BE MIXED IT AT THE ONSET...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE THIS MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

CONSIDERING NUMEROUS MAIN TRAVEL ROUTES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN...CRESTING TERRAIN ABOVE 1600 FT MSL...WE PLAYED IT ON THE
SAFE SIDE AND WENT WITH A LOW-END ADVISORY FOR THIS LATE SEASON
WET SNOWFALL.

LATE DAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH...NEAR 40F JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80...AND LIKELY CRESTING
THE 5O DEGREE MARK OVER THE SCENT REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR
GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER
GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND
A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
YESTERDAYS 12Z.../AND THE LATEST 00Z/ MODEL RUN AND ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL
WAVES WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE GFS. THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION
BUT LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR BUT A MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING
WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT
LEAST TWO 12-HOUR PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AIR ON SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA NOW.
STILL SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABILIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-049-051>053-058.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE APPROACHING
TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN. THEY HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS HOWEVER ARE
AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HR EVENT,
BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A FGEN BAND
CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S
BETTER LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 310545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THIS EVENING/S
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...STILL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING UP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT TERRIBLY CHALLENGING...BUT GIVEN
THE MARGINAL AMBIENT CONDITIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD IN
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.33" QPF RIBBON FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EXTENDING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM HI RES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DEPICT NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR THINK
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB ADVISORY WITH HIGHER ELEVS
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 3"+ OF SNOW ACCUM TUE MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST 00Z NAM12...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...RETURNS QPF BULLSEYE
NORTHWARD...TRACKING SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KJST TO KAOO
PATH...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE ABOVE TELL
ME THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AND OVERALL SUBADVISORY ACCUMS WILL
BE PREVALENT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS PRELIMINARY WITHOUT A
GLIMPSE AT A FULLER SUITE OF 00Z OUTPUT AND THE LATEST EFS DATA
WHICH THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EARLIER ISSUED SPS FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH 1 AM
BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING CLIPPER STREAMS IN AFTER THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST
DAYBREAK...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SEVERAL FACTORS COMPICATE THE FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
EXACT TRACK AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE
SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE AGAIN ARE LACKING
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOOK
FOR 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/LATEST AVAILABLE EFS OUTPOUT FOR FINAL
GUIDANCE ON AMOUNTS FOR THIS ELEVATION INFLUENCED BORDERLINE
ADVISORY EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA NOW.
STILL SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THIS EVENING/S
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...STILL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING UP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT TERRIBLY CHALLENGING...BUT GIVEN
THE MARGINAL AMBIENT CONDITIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD IN
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.33" QPF RIBBON FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EXTENDING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM HI RES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DEPICT NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR THINK
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB ADVISORY WITH HIGHER ELEVS
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 3"+ OF SNOW ACCUM TUE MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST 00Z NAM12...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...RETURNS QPF BULLSEYE
NORTHWARD...TRACKING SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KJST TO KAOO
PATH...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE ABOVE TELL
ME THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AND OVERALL SUBADVISORY ACCUMS WILL
BE PREVALENT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS PRELIMINARY WITHOUT A
GLIMPSE AT A FULLER SUITE OF 00Z OUTPUT AND THE LATEST EFS DATA
WHICH THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EARLIER ISSUED SPS FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH 1 AM
BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING CLIPPER STREAMS IN AFTER THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST
DAYBREAK...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SEVERAL FACTORS COMPICATE THE FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
EXACT TRACK AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE
SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE AGAIN ARE LACKING
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOOK
FOR 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/LATEST AVAILABLE EFS OUTPOUT FOR FINAL
GUIDANCE ON AMOUNTS FOR THIS ELEVATION INFLUENCED BORDERLINE
ADVISORY EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA NOW.
STILL SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THIS EVENING/S
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...STILL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING UP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT TERRIBLY CHALLENGING...BUT GIVEN
THE MARGINAL AMBIENT CONDITIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD IN
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.33" QPF RIBBON FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EXTENDING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM HI RES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DEPICT NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR THINK
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB ADVISORY WITH HIGHER ELEVS
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 3"+ OF SNOW ACCUM TUE MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST 00Z NAM12...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...RETURNS QPF BULLSEYE
NORTHWARD...TRACKING SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KJST TO KAOO
PATH...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE ABOVE TELL
ME THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AND OVERALL SUBADVISORY ACCUMS WILL
BE PREVALENT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS PRELIMINARY WITHOUT A
GLIMPSE AT A FULLER SUITE OF 00Z OUTPUT AND THE LATEST EFS DATA
WHICH THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EARLIER ISSUED SPS FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH 1 AM
BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING CLIPPER STREAMS IN AFTER THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST
DAYBREAK...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SEVERAL FACTORS COMPICATE THE FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
EXACT TRACK AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE
SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE AGAIN ARE LACKING
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOOK
FOR 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/LATEST AVAILABLE EFS OUTPOUT FOR FINAL
GUIDANCE ON AMOUNTS FOR THIS ELEVATION INFLUENCED BORDERLINE
ADVISORY EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA NOW.
STILL SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310509
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310509
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310509
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310509
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

REST OF THE OVERNIGHT VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
AT KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE WE EXTENDED PCPN CHANCES DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SOME SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310406
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING FOR POPS
THROUGH SUNRISE. STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE JUST WHEN RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. IFR...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN RAIN AND SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.

OTHERWISE...AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.

MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 310233
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THIS EVENING/S
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...STILL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING UP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT TERRIBLY CHALLENGING...BUT GIVEN
THE MARGINAL AMBIENT CONDITIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD IN
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.33" QPF RIBBON FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EXTENDING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM HI RES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DEPICT NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR THINK
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB ADVISORY WITH HIGHER ELEVS
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 3"+ OF SNOW ACCUM TUE MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST 00Z NAM12...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...RETURNS QPF BULLSEYE
NORTHWARD...TRACKING SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KJST TO KAOO
PATH...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE ABOVE TELL
ME THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AND OVERALL SUBADVISORY ACCUMS WILL
BE PREVALENT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS PRELIMINARY WITHOUT A
GLIMPSE AT A FULLER SUITE OF 00Z OUTPUT AND THE LATEST EFS DATA
WHICH THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EARLIER ISSUED SPS FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH 1 AM
BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING CLIPPER STREAMS IN AFTER THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LATEST TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST
DAYBREAK...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SEVERAL FACTORS COMPICATE THE FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
EXACT TRACK AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE
SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE AGAIN ARE LACKING
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOOK
FOR 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/LATEST AVAILABLE EFS OUTPOUT FOR FINAL
GUIDANCE ON AMOUNTS FOR THIS ELEVATION INFLUENCED BORDERLINE
ADVISORY EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310233
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THIS EVENING/S
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...STILL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS NOW SHOWING UP OVER
NORTHERN OHIO.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT TERRIBLY CHALLENGING...BUT GIVEN
THE MARGINAL AMBIENT CONDITIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD IN
WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.33" QPF RIBBON FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS EXTENDING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM HI RES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DEPICT NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD LLVL AIR THINK
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB ADVISORY WITH HIGHER ELEVS
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 3"+ OF SNOW ACCUM TUE MORNING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST 00Z NAM12...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...RETURNS QPF BULLSEYE
NORTHWARD...TRACKING SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KJST TO KAOO
PATH...REDUCING SNOW ACCUMS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE ABOVE TELL
ME THAT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AND OVERALL SUBADVISORY ACCUMS WILL
BE PREVALENT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS PRELIMINARY WITHOUT A
GLIMPSE AT A FULLER SUITE OF 00Z OUTPUT AND THE LATEST EFS DATA
WHICH THE MID SHIFT WILL HAVE AT ITS DISPOSAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EARLIER ISSUED SPS FOR ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOWFALL FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH 1 AM
BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING CLIPPER STREAMS IN AFTER THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LATEST TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER
ARRIVAL TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY STARTING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY PAST
DAYBREAK...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SEVERAL FACTORS COMPICATE THE FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE
EXACT TRACK AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE
SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE AGAIN ARE LACKING
CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOOK
FOR 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/LATEST AVAILABLE EFS OUTPOUT FOR FINAL
GUIDANCE ON AMOUNTS FOR THIS ELEVATION INFLUENCED BORDERLINE
ADVISORY EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310130
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
MAINLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT TO REMAIN STEADY UNTIL PRECIP
ARRIVES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S EXPECT WET
BULBING TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION WITH RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS NEWER RUNS JUST A BIT WARMER WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESS. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY WARM GROUND...PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR FOREST
COUNTY AND AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-80...WITH A COATING
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THIS. PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH ALL
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES THE RIDGES AND COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH A
WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 50S KZZV TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-80..THEN
BEGIN A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING
SURFACE LOW INCREASE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO THE EAST
AND NW FLOW ENSUES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DRIES OUT
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE MAY DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30`S...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 60`S AND APPROACHING 70
FOR POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH 850HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +10C.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL BE DETERMINED LATER AS THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN THE THREE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES. THIS TIMING WOULD IMPACT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
SUBSEQUENT ISSUES WITH WIND. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WANTED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS TRENDS AND WPC
GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LIKELY TO
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE THURSDAY WARMTH WILL THUS BE SHORT LIVED...BUT THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS PAST WEEKEND GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT IS PROGGED ALOFT. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN SNOW AT KFKL AND KDUJ AS SNOW RATES INCREASE AS DAWN ARRIVES...WITH
VERY GUSTY WINDS LIKELY EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF KBVI AS THE WARM
SECTOR AND RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE NORTHWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE S/WV CROSSING THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF PRECIP
OVER NRN AREAS. IT HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, THOUGH SOME SN
WAS REPORTED IN THE POCONOS. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ACRS THE NRN TIER ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. ONCE THIS PRECIP MOVES THRU,
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT AND A QUIET NIGHT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE GOOD FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN. ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS
WILL HAVE SNOW TUE WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE DEL VALLEY/DELMARVA AND NJ BY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF OF ABOUT 0.25 EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT (WITH PRECIP CUTTING
OFF FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z), EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAIN
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF SHORE. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL!

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS CAME INTO CONSIDERABLY
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS TIME THOUGH, A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES OF RAIN
EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND WHEN IT DOES
IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, CONTINUED TO KEEP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS TOUCHED OFF SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AREAS. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE CUD BE A
PASSING SHWR AT KABE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GENL W WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE MORNING AND THEN LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
DEL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH (SRN POCONOS).
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PLACED IN THE 30 HR TAF...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER...MORE DETAILS ON THIS WITH
THE 00Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TUE WITH SW WINDS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIP MOVES OUT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, ALL FLAGS WILL BE DROPPED WITH
THE LATEST FCST UPDATE. OVERALL, A W WIND IS ANTICIPATED AND COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT, BUT EVEN THAT HAS BEEN GENEROUS

SUB-SCA LATE AFTER THAT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
TUE COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SCA WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS PATTERN, SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY.

SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WAVES ABOVE 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO MID EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING (03-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE.

NOT AS OPTOMISTIC FOR BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING /WINTRY/
WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN BEGINNING
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTNS...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MORE TO FOLLOW IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THREE OR FOUR FACTORS GREATLY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE EXACT TRACK
AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A
LARGE DEGREE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322 CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WANTED TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO CONFIRM THE TIMING TRACK AND QPF
AMOUNTS BEFORE COORDINATING AN ADVISORY FOR A BORDERLINE AND
HIGHLY ELEVATION INFLUENCED EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO MID EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING (03-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE.

NOT AS OPTOMISTIC FOR BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING /WINTRY/
WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN BEGINNING
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTNS...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MORE TO FOLLOW IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THREE OR FOUR FACTORS GREATLY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE EXACT TRACK
AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A
LARGE DEGREE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322 CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WANTED TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO CONFIRM THE TIMING TRACK AND QPF
AMOUNTS BEFORE COORDINATING AN ADVISORY FOR A BORDERLINE AND
HIGHLY ELEVATION INFLUENCED EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO MID EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING (03-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE.

NOT AS OPTOMISTIC FOR BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING /WINTRY/
WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN BEGINNING
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTNS...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MORE TO FOLLOW IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THREE OR FOUR FACTORS GREATLY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE EXACT TRACK
AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A
LARGE DEGREE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322 CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WANTED TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO CONFIRM THE TIMING TRACK AND QPF
AMOUNTS BEFORE COORDINATING AN ADVISORY FOR A BORDERLINE AND
HIGHLY ELEVATION INFLUENCED EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND RIDE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUESDAY...BRINGING HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA. MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. A SHARP
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PENN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO MID EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING (03-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE.

NOT AS OPTOMISTIC FOR BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL TAIL OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR YET ANOTHER EARLY SPRING /WINTRY/
WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN BEGINNING
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTNS...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. MORE TO FOLLOW IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A POTENT CLIPPER
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THREE OR FOUR FACTORS GREATLY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FIRST BEING THE EXACT TRACK
AND QPF...SECOND IS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE MORNING /A FEW HOURS FASTER MEAN MORE SNOW/...AND THIRD BEING A
LARGE DEGREE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY.

IN ANY CASE...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STG UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT UPPER JET WILL
BRING A MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING TO AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL VARY FROM 1-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE RT 322 CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE LITTLE OR NO SNOW SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WANTED TO WAIT
FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO CONFIRM THE TIMING TRACK AND QPF
AMOUNTS BEFORE COORDINATING AN ADVISORY FOR A BORDERLINE AND
HIGHLY ELEVATION INFLUENCED EVENT.

MULTI MODEL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/S MAXES ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL PENN...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50F IN THE SOUTH.

UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS AFTER 15Z WILL LIKELY
BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SEEMS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT ONE OR TWO FRONTAL WAVES WILL BRING PCPN TO THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL WAVES WITH THE LAST
TWO RUNS OF THE EC COMING IN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POSITION BUT LEANS TOWARD
THE STRONGER EC. AT ANY RATE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR BUT A
MEAN BLEND/CONSENSUS SOLUTION INCORPORATING WPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
INCREASING POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR AT LEAST TWO 12-HOUR
PERIODS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON
SATURDAY...PRECEDED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF SLIDING EASTWARD THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MID EVENING...WITH INTERMITTENT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. EXPECT THUS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING (03Z-04Z) AS UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LLVLS
STABLIZE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE FROM LATE
EVENING HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ANOTHER EARLY SPRING
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
REDUCTIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHIELD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF PENN WILL DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR FROM BFD TO POINTS EAST TWD KIPT BY MID
MORNING TUE. IFR IN MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE
A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME LIGHTER AND MORE BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310051
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
851 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST