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000
FXUS61 KCTP 201959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
344 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KCTP 201900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN`T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LOW
TEMPS TO NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS DIAGNOSED AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO KEEP CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDISTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LOW
TEMPS TO NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS DIAGNOSED AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO KEEP CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDISTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LOW
TEMPS TO NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS DIAGNOSED AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO KEEP CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDISTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LOW
TEMPS TO NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS DIAGNOSED AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO KEEP CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDISTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24





000
FXUS61 KCTP 201523
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GORGEOUS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201523
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GORGEOUS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201523
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GORGEOUS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201523
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GORGEOUS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201521
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1121 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS DIAGNOSED AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO KEEP CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
NUMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI







000
FXUS61 KCTP 201306
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
906 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING TEMPS RECOVERING NICELY FROM EARLIER MINS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S. SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ NOW WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHICH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WARM INTO
THE 40S. THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
DOWN INTO OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. CIRRUS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201306
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
906 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING TEMPS RECOVERING NICELY FROM EARLIER MINS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S. SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ NOW WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHICH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WARM INTO
THE 40S. THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING
DOWN INTO OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. CIRRUS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR/DEVOIR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201158
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
TO THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 201158
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
TO THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201148
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVERAGE LIMITED TO
OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201148
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVERAGE LIMITED TO
OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200941
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACRS THE NERN CONUS WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. STLT/SFC
OBS/UPR AIR CHARTS INDICATE ONLY OCNL PASSING THIN CI WL BE SEEN
TDA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPD TO BE 5-10 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200941
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACRS THE NERN CONUS WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. STLT/SFC
OBS/UPR AIR CHARTS INDICATE ONLY OCNL PASSING THIN CI WL BE SEEN
TDA. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPD TO BE 5-10 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KCTP 200839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CIRRUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE KEPT CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN INTO
OUR REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY. THE CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEALTH OF HIGH CLODS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL
TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME ERLY THIS MORNING AND E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE WATERS. THE SCA FLAG FOR DEL BAY
(SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM) WILL BE RAISED WITH THE 330
CWF. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200704
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SE WL CONT TO THIN THIS MRNG
AND SHIFT SEWD AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE NERN CONUS. OCNL PASSING
THIN CI CAN BE EXPD THE REST TDA WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200704
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SE WL CONT TO THIN THIS MRNG
AND SHIFT SEWD AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE NERN CONUS. OCNL PASSING
THIN CI CAN BE EXPD THE REST TDA WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK WRM ADVCTN AND SRLY FLOW WL BRING WRMG TEMPS THRU MON. CLDS WL
BEGIN TO INCR LT MON AS THE NXT SHRTWV APRCHS FM THE MD WEST.
SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY BY TUE MRNG WITH THE APRCH AND PASSAGE OF THIS
SHRTWV/CDFNT. PROGGED INSTBY IS MINIMAL SO NO TSTM MENTION.
ANOTHER UPR TROF WL CROSS THE ERN GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED KEEPING
CLDS IN NW FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LTR WED.

ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL BE REPLACED WITH WELL BLO NMBRS AFT
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KCTP 200556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200556
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 15Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NE TO THE SE...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN`T/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH LOW
DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR A COLD OVERNIGHT. THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD SLOW THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING A BIT. MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 36F OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY TOO HIGH FOR ASOS TO
PICK UP.

MOST GUIDANCE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE PESKY CIRRUS. ADDED CLOUDS TO
SHOW THE CIRRUS WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

ANOTHER COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
STILL BE IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE CUT-OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP A NICE STRONG MESOSCALE EXTENSION OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN`T/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200434
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SE WL CONT TO THIN OVRNIGHT
AND SHIFT SEWD AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE NERN CONUS. OCNL PASSING
THIN CI CAN BE EXPD THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEG
ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...WITH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200434
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A
CROSSING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SE WL CONT TO THIN OVRNIGHT
AND SHIFT SEWD AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE NERN CONUS. OCNL PASSING
THIN CI CAN BE EXPD THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEG
ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...WITH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE
DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200243
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY
SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT
OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT
TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER
EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS WARMING AND
DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE PARENT LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW TO OUR AWAY TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS WARMING AND
DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE PARENT LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW TO OUR AWAY TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS WARMING AND
DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE PARENT LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW TO OUR AWAY TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS WARMING AND
DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE PARENT LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW TO OUR AWAY TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200137
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE, HOWEVER THE PRESENT OF A UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME MORE FROM PREVIOUSLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. PRIOR TO THIS, MANY AREAS ARE
DECOUPLING HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO RESPOND.
DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
THEREFORE ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR FOR MOST
PLACES. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FRONT THOUGH THAT MOVED FAIRLY FAR
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING INCREASED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALL IMPACT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. WHILE A TOUCH OF
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE SHELTERED AREAS, ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN
DECLARED STARTED AND ALSO WHERE THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NO MENTION INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MORE
NOTABLE DEW POINT GRADIENT CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEREFORE THE DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATE. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL 4-5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200137
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT REMAINS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE, HOWEVER THE PRESENT OF A UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME MORE FROM PREVIOUSLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. PRIOR TO THIS, MANY AREAS ARE
DECOUPLING HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO RESPOND.
DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
THEREFORE ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR FOR MOST
PLACES. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE FRONT THOUGH THAT MOVED FAIRLY FAR
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING INCREASED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALL IMPACT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. WHILE A TOUCH OF
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE SHELTERED AREAS, ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN
DECLARED STARTED AND ALSO WHERE THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, NO MENTION INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MORE
NOTABLE DEW POINT GRADIENT CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEREFORE THE DEW POINTS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATE. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL 4-5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI





000
FXUS61 KCTP 200009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM. HAVE BEEN INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH EACH UPDATE. AS THE PARENT LOW TO OUR SE PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OPAQUE CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD
PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE
FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME
POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 192315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DEPARTS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD BE A CHALLENGE AS WE HAVE
CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS
TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE EAST OF I-95 WHERE OUR LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND THE FALL LINE, THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE WENT CLOSER
TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR
FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE LOCALES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO NO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER DEW POINTS
SO FAR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-95. THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE CIRRUS
IS MUCH THICKER. FARTHER NORTH, THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO THIN
OUT. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MARCH
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KMIV AND KACY, OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DEPARTS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT COULD BE A CHALLENGE AS WE HAVE
CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE
CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS
TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE EAST OF I-95 WHERE OUR LOWS ARE
PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND THE FALL LINE, THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE WENT CLOSER
TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR
FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE LOCALES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO NO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER DEW POINTS
SO FAR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-95. THE SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE CIRRUS
IS MUCH THICKER. FARTHER NORTH, THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO THIN
OUT. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO MARCH
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KMIV AND KACY, OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS. THE WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN LOCALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE
TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION
AND DRY AIR.

AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO.

A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO
SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25.

DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH.

COLDER FOR WED.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU.

A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW
FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT
MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET.

ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY
SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKNENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM
MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB
BETTER AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT THE SAME AT 500MB OFF THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. BUT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO GIVE CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM ARE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF
SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE
EAST OF I95 WHERE OUR MINS ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN
OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. NW OF I95 AND THE FALL LINE THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE
WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO
BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE
LOCALES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO
NO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV
NEXT PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED. IT JUST WENT THROUGH KACY AND IS
NEARING KMJX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A
KBLM-KNEL- HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU
KENT AND SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT
THOSE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR TWO
HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB
BETTER AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT THE SAME AT 500MB OFF THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS. BUT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO GIVE CONFLICTING GUIDANCE.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM ARE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS WE HAVE CONFLICTING FORCES. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THE PREDICTED SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO THE 50/50 THRESHOLD OF
SURFACE MIXING. OUR CONCLUSION WAS TO GIVE THE GRADIENT SOME DUE
EAST OF I95 WHERE OUR MINS ARE PREDICTED TO OCCUR EARLIER AND THEN
OVERALL HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE. NW OF I95 AND THE FALL LINE THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING INVERSION MIGHT BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WE
WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW ITS GOING TO
BE TOUGH FOR FROST TO OCCUR ANYWHERE. THE MORE LIKELY PLACES ARE
LOCALES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEEN DECLARED STARTED, SO
NO MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES OR HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS OH SO DRY (NO SC OVER THE OCEAN YET)
THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD NOT PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF
DELAWARE BAY COOLER THAN TODAY. THE LATE APRIL SUN THOUGH FINDS A
WAY TO OUTPERFORM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREES WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE.
WE WENT AT OR ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FROM AROUND I95 AND DE STATE 1
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD. WE WENT CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE EAST
OF THESE ROADWAYS. EVEN WITHOUT THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. WE ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY
VS TODAY AS THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN EASTERN NJ AND
DELAWARE WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR LESS WIND SPEEDS (DIRECTION EAST
VS NORTH) IN PLACES FARTHER TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WE ARE NOT
YET ISSUING FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS
POINT. READINGS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO
THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV
NEXT PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED. IT JUST WENT THROUGH KACY AND IS
NEARING KMJX. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A
KBLM-KNEL- HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU
KENT AND SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT
THOSE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR TWO
HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEAS AT BUOY 9 ARE STILL AT 5 FEET, SO AT LEAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THE GAP OF NON-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
IS GETTING SMALLER ALL THE TIME. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW
WITH SWELLS LATELY.

WE ARE GOING TO BE ADDING DELAWARE BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY DAY. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE LOWER BAY THAN THE UPPER BAY.
REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MIGHT FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
MONMOUTH COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY BY THE END
OF THE DAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY TO THE NJ
PINE BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED
DRY AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND
GUSTS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW HALF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT (MOSTLY) NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE LYCOMING VALLEY AND ENDLESS MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT
TIMES...AS AN UPPER TROF PASSAGE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
MORNING HAS AIDED MIXING THERE.

HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OPAQUE...CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE FILTERING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE SUN THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ
BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED.
AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191654
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS (PLEASE LOOK AT KACY AND KMIV NEXT
PARAGRAPH). ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

FOR KACY AND KMIV AND AIRPORTS IN DELAWARE AND SE NJ, A SEA AND
BAY BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS WWD TO APPROXIMATELY A KBLM-TOMS RIVER-
HAMMONTON IN ATLC COUNTY-WESTERN CUMBERLAND NJ AND THRU KENT AND
SUSSEX CTY DELAWARE LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE HAVE AN EAST WIND SHIFT TIME MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

FOR TONIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
(MAYBE SOME CIRRUS) AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE EAST AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KMIV AND KACY
AS WELL AS OTHER NEAR THE COAST AIRPORTS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PASSING ALOFT ON SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ONE OR
TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE AT THE KPHL AREA
AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THINNER CIRRUS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPS ARE RISING AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE. WE BUMPED THE HOURLY RISE UP A BIT. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
NOT MAKING TOO MANY OTHER CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST OR ESTF UPDATE.

PREVIOUS CHANGE BASED ON THE MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA
BREEZE IN SERN NJ AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A RETURN TO MORE ROBUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191509
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. MORNING TEMPS WARMING NICELY WITH
SOUTHEAST AREAS ALREADY NEAR 60F (KTHV AND KMDT)...LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LYCOMING VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 50F OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH
STARTED OUT MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST VERY THIN BKN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA. ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS BE 8-12KT THIS AFTN WHILE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU
THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY DAY AS THE GAP BETWEEN
THE FALLING SEAS AND THE NEXT SURGE IS CLOSING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER MAX TEMPS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE CAA OFFSETTING
OUR MORNING START, SO WE DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN ADJUSTMENT. THE
CIRRUS OUTSIDE OUR DOOR IS RATHER THIN, LOOKS WORSE ON IR SATL
THAN IT IS. WE LOWERED SKY COVER. BIGGEST CHANGE BASED ON THE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS INDICATING A BAY/SEA BREEZE IN SERN NJ
AND DELAWARE. WE INDICATED ONE LATE, NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF
THE FASTER MESOSCALE MODELS, BUT MORE SO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY
HAD.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
WHEN A BAY/SEA BREEZE MIGHT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SERN NJ AND
DELAWARE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 191136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY MIDDAY WHILE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY MIDDAY WHILE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE NAEFS AND GEFS FAVOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE ONE OF A SERIES OF WAVES. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
UNDER 0.20 INCHES AND THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. IF THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES IS FAST AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY SUNNY DAY.
THE FAST FLOW IMPLIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO CURRENTLY LOOKS A BIT
MOISTURE STARVED.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SGFNT CHGS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT. PREVIOUS...BLDG HIGH PRES
WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE
SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SGFNT CHGS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT. PREVIOUS...BLDG HIGH PRES
WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP HIGHS NR THE
SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
LT MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW...WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190832
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF
THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE.

THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS
USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS
GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A
WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP
TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6
AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND
LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH
OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP
HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW... WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BLDG HIGH PRES WL BRING DRY WEA TDA. THIN CI ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES ACRS THE SERN CONUS WL CONT TO DCR THRU THE DAY AS WELL. EXP
HIGHS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL RMN IN CTRL THRU SUN BEFORE SHIFTING E. CLDS WL INCR
MON AHD OF THE NXT APRCHG SHRTWV. SHWRS WL BCM LIKELY WITH THE
ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LT MON NGT
INTO TUE. TEMPS WL RTN TO ABV SEASONAL AVGS SUN AND MON WITH SRLY
FLOW... WITH NR AVG NMBRS EXPD FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NEWER MODELS SHOW A BETTER PUNCH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND SYSTEM AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. BY THURSDAY HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT HIGHER POPS FOR
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190520
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

ALOT OF CIRRUS NEAR US TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
IT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

MANY ASOS SITES CANNOT SEE THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE QUITE
HIGH...THOUGH KCCX VWP PICKS UP TARGETS FROM NEAR SURFACETO 18 KFT
AT TIMES. STRONG 250HPA JET OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CIRRUS IN
ENTRANCE REGION...MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST...FOR US JUST
HIGH CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY
NICE DAY TEMEPATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS
SLOWLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH EVEN MORE SUN.

DON`T NEED AN ENSEMBLE WHEN IT`S PRETTY MUCH A BIG BUBBLE AND NO
TROUBLE IN EVERY MODEL ONE EXAMINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190520
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

ALOT OF CIRRUS NEAR US TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL KEEPING
IT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

MANY ASOS SITES CANNOT SEE THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE QUITE
HIGH...THOUGH KCCX VWP PICKS UP TARGETS FROM NEAR SURFACETO 18 KFT
AT TIMES. STRONG 250HPA JET OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CIRRUS IN
ENTRANCE REGION...MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEAST...FOR US JUST
HIGH CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY
NICE DAY TEMEPATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. RIDGING ALOFT WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS
SLOWLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH EVEN MORE SUN.

DON`T NEED AN ENSEMBLE WHEN IT`S PRETTY MUCH A BIG BUBBLE AND NO
TROUBLE IN EVERY MODEL ONE EXAMINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WK...DRY CDFNT CONTS TO PUSH S ACRS SW PA INTO NRN WV WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A WSHFT. CS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS THE
SERN CONUS WL CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE RGN TNGT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOSTLY THIN. EXP LOWS NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST U.S.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190237
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1037 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE
AND COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER
RIDGE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HOW ABOUT THOSE MESO MDLS - POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES GETTING A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THESE WILL BE OVER JUST AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED.
FRONT HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE WRN MTS...BUT HAS INCHED EASTWARD
THRU THE NRN MTS. FRONT LAYS OUT W-E THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE
ASSOCD MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STOP FALLING AROUND 40F IN LOTS OF
PLACES...BUT SOME - ESP THE COLDER VALLEYS - COULD GET INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE...FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NO RAIN HAS
FALLEN. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH
SO FAR THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE...FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NO RAIN HAS
FALLEN. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH
SO FAR THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN PA UP TO
SYRACUSE, NY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT, IT IS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THUS, DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN PA UP TO
SYRACUSE, NY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT, IT IS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THUS, DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 182340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182340
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PACKAGE BRINGS DOWN THE WINDS AS WE NEAR SUNSET. A BKN-OVC
LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE AREA. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE VFR DAY ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 10KT WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 182334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 182334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.

NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.

EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.

ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 182320
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FRONT NOW BISECTS THE AREA WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND IT. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SE THRU THE EVENING/NIGHT. BUT IT HAS NO
MOISTURE ALONG/BEHIND IT SOUTH OF KBUF. STILL...WILL HOLD ONTO
SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
CURRENT CROP OF MID CLOUDS IN THE NW SLIDES TO THE EAST. ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING MAY JOIN UP JUST AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU
POTTER/TIOGA COUNTIES TO MAKE A SHOWER PER RUC/NAM FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER PA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +3 TO 0C
RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182233
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 6PM...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LAID ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO
EASTERN OHIO. SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
EAST...AND SKIES LIKELY WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MANY PLACES.
RADAR STILL SHOWS NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND
40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW
70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE U.S. ROCKIES REACHES THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND
COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY NEXT THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ TO EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIR MASS OVER MY SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES HAS MIXED OUT WITH THE SLIGHT SOUTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS...ALLEVIATING THE EASTERLY COMPONENT. MUCH OF PA IS
NOW ENJOYING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RESPONDING WITH RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...AND
EVEN KBFD APPROACHING 60F OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...WHILE
EASTERN AREAS ARE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MARITIME
INFLUENCE AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MID
AFTERNOON.

A SHEARING SFC FRONT IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
APPROACH MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA WITH IT. BROADBRUSHED
A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER IN
COLLABORATION WITH KBGM...BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT. ANY CHC OF SHOWERS COMES BEFORE 06Z...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1036 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. MINS SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE
LOWER 30S NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA SEES MINS
IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER PA THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
IN THE +3 TO 0C RANGE...YIELDING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH
TO LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND LIGHT NLY BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TWEAKED THE WINDS AND CURRENT MID LEVEL
BROKEN CEILING. AS THE SUN SETS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-SAT...AREAS MVFR THIS EVENING NORTHWEST...VFR ELSEWHERE.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...TYBURSKI




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