Home > Products > State Listing > Pennsylvania Data
Latest:
 AFDPHI |  AFDPBZ |  AFDCTP |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 110944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW JUST LIFTED OUT OF THE BACKYARD. THIS BAND
PERSISTED DEEP INTO THE SERN COS WITH ACCUMULATIONS INTO LEBANON
CO. A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SHOVING THE BAND TO THE EAST. THE
BAND IS BREAKING UP BUT THE WIND IS GOING BACK TO A NWRLY DIR OVER
THE WRN MTNS ATTM. THE CONVERGENCE LINE IS NOW A GOOD SQUALL UNTO
ITSELF - PRESSING STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL IMPACT I-80
SHORTLY. THIS SQUALL IS MOVING ALONG PERPENDICULAR TO IT/S
ORIENTATION. BUT A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THE BANDS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE LAKE ARE REACHING INTO WARREN AND
MCKEAN COS...BUT THE MEAN FLOW IS STILL A LITTLE TOO WRLY TO PUSH
THEM TOO MUCH FARTHER S.

THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THRU THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MORE BUT SHORTER BANDS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...A GOOD HURON
CONNECTION IS PROGGED BY THE MESO GUIDANCE TO FOCUS A LONG BAND
THRU KERI AND KFIG AND RIGHT THRU UNV THIS AFTN. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. NRN CENTRE CO MAY NEED AN ADVY
WITH SNOW OVER THE NEXT 18HRS RIGHT AROUND 3 INCHES. BUT THE BAND
MAY BE 40 MILES EITHER DIRECTION AND THE UNCERTAINTY LEADS ME TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOW THERE WILL BE OVER
IN JUST AN HR OR TWO.

THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY LONG. THE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. THE ACCUMS SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGABLE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THE END TIMING OF THE ADVYS/WARNING WILL BE KEPT AS IS AT
03Z. HOWEVER...MANY PLACES S OF ELK CO WILL SEE JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE
COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER. SNOW PACK AND CALM
AIR DO WONDERS TO MAKE IT COLDER THAN WE THINK IT WILL BE. WILL
PAINT IN A DIP AROUND THE TYPICAL FRIDGES OF SEG AND THV - MAKING
THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES.

THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET SAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BREAK OUT/SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE
20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM U20.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH LYING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCNL IFR VSBYS AT KUNV UNTIL
IT/S PASSAGE ARND 11Z.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH...EXPECT A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIME
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS FROM LGT SNOW AT
KBFD/KJST...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDS AT THE LOWER ELEV AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE THIS AFTN...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA AT 09Z...AND
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUCH GUSTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY ALLOWS
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.

ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
435 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX


&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW JUST LIFTED OUT OF THE BACKYARD. THIS BAND
PERSISTED DEEP INTO THE SERN COS WITH ACCUMULATIONS INTO LEBANON
CO. A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SHOVING THE BAND TO THE EAST. THE
BAND IS BREAKING UP BUT THE WIND IS GOING BACK TO A NWRLY DIR OVER
THE WRN MTNS ATTM. THE CONVERGENCE LINE IS NOW A GOOD SQUALL UNTO
ITSELF - PRESSING STEADILY SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL IMPACT I-80
SHORTLY. THIS SQUALL IS MOVING ALONG PERPENDICULAR TO IT/S
ORIENTATION. BUT A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THE BANDS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE LAKE ARE REACHING INTO WARREN AND
MCKEAN COS...BUT THE MEAN FLOW IS STILL A LITTLE TOO WRLY TO PUSH
THEM TOO MUCH FARTHER S.

THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THRU THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MORE BUT SHORTER BANDS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...A GOOD HURON
CONNECTION IS PROGGED BY THE MESO GUIDANCE TO FOCUS A LONG BAND
THRU KERI AND KFIG AND RIGHT THRU UNV THIS AFTN. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. NRN CENTRE CO MAY NEED AN ADVY
WITH SNOW OVER THE NEXT 18HRS RIGHT AROUND 3 INCHES. BUT THE BAND
MAY BE 40 MILES EITHER DIRECTION AND THE UNCERTAINTY LEADS ME TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOW THERE WILL BE OVER
IN JUST AN HR OR TWO.

THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY LONG. THE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. THE ACCUMS SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGABLE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THE END TIMING OF THE ADVYS/WARNING WILL BE KEPT AS IS AT
03Z. HOWEVER...MANY PLACES S OF ELK CO WILL SEE JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE
COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER. SNOW PACK AND CALM
AIR DO WONDERS TO MAKE IT COLDER THAN WE THINK IT WILL BE. WILL
PAINT IN A DIP AROUND THE TYPICAL FRIDGES OF SEG AND THV - MAKING
THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES.

THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET SAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BREAK OUT/SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE
20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM U20.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH LYING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCNL IFR VSBYS AT KUNV UNTIL
IT/S PASSAGE ARND 11Z.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH...EXPECT A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIME
BTWN 11Z-17Z...WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS FROM LGT SNOW AT
KBFD/KJST...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDS AT THE LOWER ELEV AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE BY THIS AFTN...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR
ELSEWHERE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS AT KJST EARLY THIS AM...AND MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SIMILAR GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA
BY LATE AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.

ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 110840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBILE TRACKS FROM EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z 2/10 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AL/GA
NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE EAST
COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT TO
TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CHANGING THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS FIRST IS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD TEND
TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST. WHILE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN THROUGH 21Z,
BUT THESE LOCATIONS ARE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF WHERE WE EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS
SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS
WINDS REMAIN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST...WHICH
WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110748
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH LYING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCNL IFR VSBYS AT KUNV UNTIL
IT/S PASSAGE ARND 11Z.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH...EXPECT A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIME
BTWN 11Z-17Z...WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS FROM LGT SNOW AT
KBFD/KJST...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDS AT THE LOWER ELEV AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE BY THIS AFTN...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR
ELSEWHERE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS AT KJST EARLY THIS AM...AND MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SIMILAR GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA
BY LATE AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.

ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
SNOW CONVECTION SWITCHED FROM A WAVE TO A LINEAR BAND FEATURE. THE
HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THE SWITCH...HOWEVER FAILED TO
SHOW THE INTENSITY. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
INTERACTION WITH ANY SNOW...WHICH COULD THEN BRING MVFR OR LOWER
VSBYS. THE BAND SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE OVER UNV...BETWEEN 05 TO 07Z.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF
SITES. BFD AND JST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
SNOW CONVECTION SWITCHED FROM A WAVE TO A LINEAR BAND FEATURE. THE
HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THE SWITCH...HOWEVER FAILED TO
SHOW THE INTENSITY. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
INTERACTION WITH ANY SNOW...WHICH COULD THEN BRING MVFR OR LOWER
VSBYS. THE BAND SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE OVER UNV...BETWEEN 05 TO 07Z.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF
SITES. BFD AND JST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
SNOW CONVECTION SWITCHED FROM A WAVE TO A LINEAR BAND FEATURE. THE
HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THE SWITCH...HOWEVER FAILED TO
SHOW THE INTENSITY. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
INTERACTION WITH ANY SNOW...WHICH COULD THEN BRING MVFR OR LOWER
VSBYS. THE BAND SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE OVER UNV...BETWEEN 05 TO 07Z.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF
SITES. BFD AND JST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE
AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE
IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK
ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH
SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE
AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE
IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK
ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH
SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 110245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
SWEEPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL
OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC, AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS PASSING ACROSS THE MIDDLE DELMARVA PENINSULA
AND IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF DELAWARE.

A NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 400 AM TIME FRAME. THE FEATURE MAY TOUCH
OFF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

A WEST WIND WILL FAVOR THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH 11
AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT
KPHL! WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
TAPERING DOWN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES
DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY,
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY
EVENT, THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND KRDG, KABE AND
KTTN IN THE 0400Z TO 0800Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND
THESE WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID
JANUARY WATER TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING,
EVEN IN DE BAY IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED AND I THINK BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY
STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110217
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
917 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTATIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.

THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.

THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 110145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.

THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 110145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.

THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.


OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110007
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110007
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 102350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 102350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 102350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 102343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 102343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 102343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 102108
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 102108
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 102108
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
 CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.

LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPHI 102059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPERATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE, WITH
ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.


2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...257




000
FXUS61 KPHI 101959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.


2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/FRANCK 257
NEAR TERM...DRAG 257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 257
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 257
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...257
CLIMATE...257




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101952
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON...WHILE ALSO CREATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST PENN
SNOW BELT...AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.

18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.

THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.

TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BYLR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.

THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR EMSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.

MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.

SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101950
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101731 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WERE MINOR. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF SNOW ALONG
LAKE ERIE TRANSITIONING SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH
AND WIND SHIFT PASSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GIVING RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER
LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101731 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WERE MINOR. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF SNOW ALONG
LAKE ERIE TRANSITIONING SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH
AND WIND SHIFT PASSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GIVING RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER
LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101731 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WERE MINOR. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF SNOW ALONG
LAKE ERIE TRANSITIONING SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH
AND WIND SHIFT PASSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GIVING RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER
LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101729
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WERE MINOR. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF SNOW ALONG
LAKE ERIE TRANSITIONING SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH
AND WIND SHIFT PASSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GIVING RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER
LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY
THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE
BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW
TERMINALS.

AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101636
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD
SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW POWDERY SNOW BY DUSK THANK TO A WELL
ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES /THAT WILL VEER TO
ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE
THROUGH THE AREA/. THIS SFC FEATURE...AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER
VORTLOBE SHOULD SUPPORT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE
FREQUENT/QUASI NE/SW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS BRIEF SQUALLS CAPABLE
OF BRINGING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
99/RT 22 CORRIDOR.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
EXTENDING THE CURRENT WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
OUT IN TIME BY UP TO 12 HOURS...AND EXPAND THEM TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES - WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MID AFTERNOON
FORECAST/GRIDDED DATA UPDATE.

NUDGED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS A BIT TWD THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH RESULTED IN JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO FCST HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE AROUND 20F ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR UPDATES TO 15Z TAF PACKAGE.

MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDAY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20 KT
RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101636
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD
SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW POWDERY SNOW BY DUSK THANK TO A WELL
ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES /THAT WILL VEER TO
ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE
THROUGH THE AREA/. THIS SFC FEATURE...AND RATHER COMPACT UPPER
VORTLOBE SHOULD SUPPORT A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MORE
FREQUENT/QUASI NE/SW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS BRIEF SQUALLS CAPABLE
OF BRINGING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
99/RT 22 CORRIDOR.

BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER
EXTENDING THE CURRENT WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
OUT IN TIME BY UP TO 12 HOURS...AND EXPAND THEM TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES - WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE MID AFTERNOON
FORECAST/GRIDDED DATA UPDATE.

NUDGED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS A BIT TWD THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH RESULTED IN JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO FCST HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE AROUND 20F ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR UPDATES TO 15Z TAF PACKAGE.

MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.

THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.

FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDAY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20 KT
RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042



000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042



000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042



000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE LATE MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
GIVING RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABILITY FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER
LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE UPPER
LOW SITS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED ALOFT AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE
POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 101307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
755 AM: NO STORM TOTAL SNOW MAP THIS MORNING. TOO FAST A DEPARTURE.
SNOW PROBS CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..COUNT
ON SCATTERED .1 TO .5 INCH IN NJ/DE 8A-10A. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. SPS/HWO UPDATED.  NO NOW CASTS...COVERED BY SPS.

6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 10 AM.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY....IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E ACROSS NJ/DE
BY 15Z, PER THE HRRR HOURLY UPDATES AND TRENDS. MVFR FLURRIES IN E
PA AND MARYLAND E SHORE WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

AFTER 15Z TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25
KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

MAY ISSUE GLW AT 915 AM FOR DE BAY BEGINNING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR
WNW FLOW FUNNELING.

OUTLOOK...

MAY CONVERT GLA TO GLW ALL WATERS AT 915 AM.

FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR
AND JUST OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD
PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS
NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE
FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

AM ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE AT BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CHECK
FUEL SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE...BY FRIDAY. AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT
THIS WEEKEND. WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER
PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.



2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 808
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 808
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...808




000
FXUS61 KPHI 101307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
755 AM: NO STORM TOTAL SNOW MAP THIS MORNING. TOO FAST A DEPARTURE.
SNOW PROBS CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..COUNT
ON SCATTERED .1 TO .5 INCH IN NJ/DE 8A-10A. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. SPS/HWO UPDATED.  NO NOW CASTS...COVERED BY SPS.

6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 10 AM.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY....IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E ACROSS NJ/DE
BY 15Z, PER THE HRRR HOURLY UPDATES AND TRENDS. MVFR FLURRIES IN E
PA AND MARYLAND E SHORE WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

AFTER 15Z TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25
KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

MAY ISSUE GLW AT 915 AM FOR DE BAY BEGINNING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR
WNW FLOW FUNNELING.

OUTLOOK...

MAY CONVERT GLA TO GLW ALL WATERS AT 915 AM.

FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR
AND JUST OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD
PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS
NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE
FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

AM ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE AT BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CHECK
FUEL SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE...BY FRIDAY. AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT
THIS WEEKEND. WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER
PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.



2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 808
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 808
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...808




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
636 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SNOW FINALLY DONE IN THE SE...AND GENERAL UPSLOPE WEAK
RETURNS/LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN PA AND SOME STREAMERS CROSSING THRU
KCLE AND HEADED FOR OUR WESTERN COS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND DURING THE AFTN. BFD AND JST ARE BOTH NEAR 1SM IN -SN
ATTM. NO CHANGES AS ALL IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

PREV...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 101136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
636 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SNOW FINALLY DONE IN THE SE...AND GENERAL UPSLOPE WEAK
RETURNS/LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN PA AND SOME STREAMERS CROSSING THRU
KCLE AND HEADED FOR OUR WESTERN COS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND DURING THE AFTN. BFD AND JST ARE BOTH NEAR 1SM IN -SN
ATTM. NO CHANGES AS ALL IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

PREV...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101136
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
636 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SNOW FINALLY DONE IN THE SE...AND GENERAL UPSLOPE WEAK
RETURNS/LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN PA AND SOME STREAMERS CROSSING THRU
KCLE AND HEADED FOR OUR WESTERN COS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND DURING THE AFTN. BFD AND JST ARE BOTH NEAR 1SM IN -SN
ATTM. NO CHANGES AS ALL IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

PREV...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 101129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 101048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS, EXPECT LESS THAN ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS BAND.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY IN THE DAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ICY SPOTS ON ROADS AND
WALKWAYS AS THERE WAS STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS LAST
EVENING, AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPS) WARNING ABOUT THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF
SITES (KPHL, KTTN, KPNE, AND KILG) AND KMIV THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SNOW, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR BEHIND THESE SNOW
SHOWERS.

BY 15Z, ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR. THOUGH WE COULD SEE
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CEILINGS (5000 TO 8000 FT AGL) THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVEN TONIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR
ONCE THEY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 14 TO 00Z, BUT
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND JUST
OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE DECREASING
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY
AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER
FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE
FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED BY THE EARLY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPANDING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH
HOUR...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVIER SNOW
IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN LOCATIONS AIDED BY THE DOWNLAKE MOISTURE
PLUME NORTH OF I-80.

SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVING
RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW FAVORABILITY FOR
SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. THIS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER LAKE-ENHANCED
MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 101007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.

FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100930
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
430 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED BY THE EARLY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPANDING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH
HOUR...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVIER SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN LOCATIONS AIDED BY THE DOWNLAKE MOISTURE
PLUME NORTH OF I-80...AND IN NORTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY DOWNWIND OF
A NUCLEAR PLANT COOLING TOWER.

SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FURTHER DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVING
RISE TO SNOW SQUALLS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL SHOW FAVORABILITY FOR
SNOW SQUALLS FROM 18-00Z IN THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. THIS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH WHERE DEEPER LAKE-ENHANCED
MOISTURE RESIDES.

LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING
MULTIPLE LAKE-TO-LAKE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS THROUGH THE COLUMN.
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT INTO THE WELL-BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE REACHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

A COMPLICATED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION PLAYED OUT THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES. IN
ADDITION...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR PITTSBURGH METRO NORTH FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE PROLONGED EFFICIENT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS. DECIDED TO KEEP AREAS SOUTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY OUT OF THE
ADVISORY AS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE OVER-LAKE FLOW
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT AND SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO FALLING WILL
YIELD A CLEARING AND COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST...THINGS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS SEEM A GOOD BET
WITH NEW SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. MODEL
TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUSPECT OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND THE TREND ON THE 00Z CYCLE WAS TO BRING IT IN A BIT
LATER FRIDAY THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT SAID...LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONCURRENT WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZES AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAXIMA AND A BOUT OF SNOW SQUALLS SEEMS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE ROUND OF SQUALLS...DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO RESUME WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE RIDGES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD START TO BREAK UP. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ON ALL MODELS DROP INTO THE MID -20S CELSIUS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING THIS LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR FOR THIS WINTER TO
WANDER ACROSS OUR AREA. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PATTERN...WITH WIDESPREAD
NUMBERS BELOW 0F AT THE SURFACE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THEREAFTER. THIS MEANS PERIODIC SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH GENERALLY NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

EARLY IN THE DAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ICY SPOTS ON ROADS AND
WALKWAYS AS THERE WAS STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS LAST EVENING,
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS)
WARNING ABOUT THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THOUGH WE COULD SEE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
CEILINGS (5000 TO 8000 FT AGL) THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN TONIGHT, DO
NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR ONCE THEY IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

OUTLOOK...

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND JUST
OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE DECREASING
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY
AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER
FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBILE AS WELL WITH THE
FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.



&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100748
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SNOW STILL FALLING LIGHTLY OVER ADAMS CO AND SURROUNDING THERE BY
A FEW MILES. WINDS NOW FROM THE WEST AND FORCING CONTINUES TO
WANE. WILL ONLY LINGER SNOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS THERE AND THE FAR
ERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE UPSLOPE HAS BEGUN. THERE IS A SHORT
BREAK FOR THE NW AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE COUDS THERE. THESE
WON/T LAST VERY LONG OVER THE NW BUT SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST AND
PERHAPS WIDEN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL COS.


PREV...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SNOW STILL FALLING LIGHTLY OVER ADAMS CO AND SURROUNDING THERE BY
A FEW MILES. WINDS NOW FROM THE WEST AND FORCING CONTINUES TO
WANE. WILL ONLY LINGER SNOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS THERE AND THE FAR
ERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE UPSLOPE HAS BEGUN. THERE IS A SHORT
BREAK FOR THE NW AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE COUDS THERE. THESE
WON/T LAST VERY LONG OVER THE NW BUT SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST AND
PERHAPS WIDEN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL COS.


PREV...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 100614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SNOW STILL FALLING LIGHTLY OVER ADAMS CO AND SURROUNDING THERE BY
A FEW MILES. WINDS NOW FROM THE WEST AND FORCING CONTINUES TO
WANE. WILL ONLY LINGER SNOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS THERE AND THE FAR
ERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE UPSLOPE HAS BEGUN. THERE IS A SHORT
BREAK FOR THE NW AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE COUDS THERE. THESE
WON/T LAST VERY LONG OVER THE NW BUT SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST AND
PERHAPS WIDEN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL COS.


PREV...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100549
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 100549
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100549
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100532
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100532
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL
HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL
DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES
DATA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
909 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON ALONG WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT
LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
831 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 100131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
831 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 100131
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
831 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100059 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800PM UPDATE...COVERED ENTIRE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE
THERE WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND HAVE LINKED UP WITH WHAT WAS
LEFT OF TODAY`S SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGS
NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO CENTRAL PA.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR. STILL EXPECT A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IN THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND
OF HIRES DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100059 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800PM UPDATE...COVERED ENTIRE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE
THERE WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND HAVE LINKED UP WITH WHAT WAS
LEFT OF TODAY`S SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGS
NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO CENTRAL PA.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR. STILL EXPECT A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IN THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND
OF HIRES DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100059 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800PM UPDATE...COVERED ENTIRE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE
THERE WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND HAVE LINKED UP WITH WHAT WAS
LEFT OF TODAY`S SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGS
NORTHWARD AND THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO CENTRAL PA.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR. STILL EXPECT A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IN THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND
OF HIRES DATA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 100047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT
AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 092333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 092333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 092333
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ALONG
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

RADAR SHOWS A VERY DISORGANIZED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW PATTERN
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SNOW GRADUALLY DWINDLING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING SO WE WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 092247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE
SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO WHERE A
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BURST OF SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT. THE MORE
PRONOUNCED LIFT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED BACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, DESPITE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS JUST BEEN TO WARM AND THAT IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SOME RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF DELMARVA. THERE ARE
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THIS MAY BE
SOME SLEET OR LARGE WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE MAY
BE CANCELLED IF TRENDS HOLD IN SHIFTING MORE OF THE SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
CHESTER COUNTY AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING THERE,
HOWEVER WE MAY VERY WELL FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA IN DELAWARE
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092227 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092227 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092227 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 092202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE MID- ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM, LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
APPROACHING THE EASTERN WESTERN SHORT OF VA. MEANWHILE, PRECIP IS
SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NJ, BUT IS
STILL STRUGGLING TO REACH POINTS FURTHER NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO DELMARVA IN ADVANCE OF A
MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWNWARD SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND
I- 195, AND DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FROM ATLANTIC
COUNTY NJ SOUTHWEST TO QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY MD AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST, AS THE PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY JUST NORTH OF THE
I- 195 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE, THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES, MAINLY TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 092130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM, LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
APPROACHING THE EASTERN WESTERN SHORT OF VA. MEANWHILE, PRECIP IS
SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NJ, BUT IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH POINTS FURTHER NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO DELMARVA IN ADVANCE OF A MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWNWARD SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND I-
195, AND DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY
NJ SOUTHWEST TO QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY MD AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, AS THE
PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY JUST NORTH OF THE I-
195 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE, THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN OVER
NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER MOST
OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD IT
WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING THIS THURSDAY. A
TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING THE
WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
-25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE. ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD
SHIFT OFFSHORE PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR KPHL
ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT
SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND REBOUND FURTHER
ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL
BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW
TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS ON
SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE, COLDEST
NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDCHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES, MAINLY TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BENEATH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER BUFKIT,
THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE,
DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND
BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE POSITIVE
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS EVENING.
FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING ARE ABOUT
0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT
SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S
DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY UP
INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER A
NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

WE THINK THAT AFTER THE CURRENT MINOR FLOODING FINISHES WORKING ITS
WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
NO ADDITIONAL ISSUES IN THAT AREA. WE PLAN ON DROPPING THE ADVISORY
THERE AT 500 PM AND NOT ISSUING A NEW ONE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THERE AND
THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE HAVE MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM FOR KENT ISLAND
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT COUNTY AND CECIL
COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 092015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND
LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ /MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIVER AT 20Z/ WHERE RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS
ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF TO AN INCH/HOUR. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

ELSEWHERE...FOCUS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE ON A N/S ORIENTED
BAND DROPPING OFF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND
IT LOOKS INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES.

OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPS BASICALLY REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092009
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 091829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
 FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
 WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091817
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091817
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091817
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE
RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
AREA OF SNOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT A N-S
ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS FORMING AS I TYPE. THIS BAND COULD BRING A
SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS BUT OVERALL
ACCUMS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS BASICALLY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.


630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE
ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH
ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN
TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE
ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH
ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN
TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE
ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH
ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN
TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141



000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES,
AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT
COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE
OCEANFRONT.

LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091440
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER SNOW TRANSITIONING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PA AND NORTHERN WV AS CLOSED LOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE MOVE EAST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART WITH AREAS
UNDER THE BETTER REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR RECEIVING MODERATE SNOW AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS RIDGE COUNTIES AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY.  KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.  BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. SO FAR THIS MORNING IT
APPEARS THAT VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE MORE A RESULT OF
FOG THAN A RESULT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD
BE TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
809 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY.  KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.  BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. SO FAR THIS MORNING IT
APPEARS THAT VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE MORE A RESULT OF
FOG THAN A RESULT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD
BE TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FINALLY SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW BUT NO ACCUM YET - EVEN ON THE
CARS. MCV-LIKE FEATURE EASY TO PICK OUT ON THE IR LOOP THIS
MORNING OVER WV. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SW. THE FORCING AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CREATE A
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
THE LAST FEW FRAMES AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM WV/MD. WORST OF
THE VSBYS ARE KHGR AND KMDT - BUT THEY ARE >1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FCST AS IS...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO FALL FOR A
WHILE BEFORE TAKING ANY FURTHER ACTION.

PREV...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SNOW HAS BEEN PATCHY SO FAR...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...AS AN AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS
OVER WV EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY WED
MORNING...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND NW.

POOR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM WED INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT SPOTS LIKE JST AND BFD.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION.  INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.

COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY.  KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY.  BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.

A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
     050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029-031-073-075.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 091130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TODAY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS
POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR
VALENTINES WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOTS OF DECISIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERWHELMING MESSAGE ONE
OF LOWER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. HAVE MADE ONE SMALL CHANGE TO THE
FLAGS BY ADDING SCHUYLKILL COUNTY INTO THE ADVY. REASONING IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOWFALL. THE TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE IN-CLOUD PROFILE AND TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DO FAVOR SOME 15:1 RATIOS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SO...ARMED WITH THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE
WARNING AND REST OF THE ADVYS AS IS FOR THE TIME-BEING. HAVE TRIED
REALLY HARD TO KEEP ACCUMS IN THE WARNING RANGE - BUT HAVE
CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL LIKELY WORK OUT
THAT THE HILLTOPS IN THE WARNING-AREA COULD GET 5-7 INCHES WHILE
THE CITIES AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS GET ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. THE
DISORGANIZED LOOK TO THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY MEAN NO LONG-LIVED
BANDING AND ONLY LIMITED TIMES OF 1 IN/HR RATES IF ANY AT ALL. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOKING PRETTY TENUOUS AS WELL WITHOUT ANOMALOUS PWATS AND
NO GOOD OFF-OCEAN/GULF FLOW TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL HELP. WITH THE
EXPECTED MELTING...WE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT MAKING WARNING NUMS -
CERTAINLY IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12-HR CRITERIA. SO MANY
THINGS GOING AGAINST WARNING SNOW ACCUMS...BUT THE CAT IS OUT AND
RUNNING AROUND ALREADY. SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE THE WARNING
UP...HAVE CHOSEN TO GIVE IT A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR THE STORM TO
SHOW IT/S HAND. RATHER NOT TAKE DOWN THE WARNING BEFORE IT EVEN
HAS A CHANCE TO GET INTO THE PROGGED HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.

TIMING LOOKS LIKE THE SRN TIER WILL GET SOME STEADY SNOW THIS
MORNING BUT THEN THE BEST FORCING SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE
LAURELS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED
CONTOURS...BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BE SLIDING STEADILY TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT. THE HEIGHTS STILL LOWER
SOME...THOUGH...AND SOME 1/2 TO 1 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WHAT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A FRONTAL BAND AS THE BEST COLD AIR MOVES
IN AT LOW LEVELS AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST.

THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OL UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE WHOLE...SO
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE
MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE STACKED WEST WIND
PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF COURSE...THE COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN CO. HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY LK EFF FLAGS FOR NOW - SINCE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH/WARNING IS NOT QUITE 50PCT AND TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE
CURRENT WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WARNS/ADVYS ELSEWHERE MAY BE
CONFUSING. IT WILL BE COMPLICATED ENOUGH FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE
SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED. MINS MAY GET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
WIND CHILLS WILL GO BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
 UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
 TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
 WEEKEND.

ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.

LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SNOW HAS BEEN PATCHY SO FAR...BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...AS AN AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS
OVER WV EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY WED
MORNING...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND NW.

POOR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM WED INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SNOW SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT SPOTS LIKE JST AND BFD.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities