[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251200
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO REBOUND HAVE CANCELLED THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY IFR IN BR/STRATUS HAS DVLPD ACRS THE FKL/DUJ AREA...AS WELL
AS HLG. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES
DOWN. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 251154
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH IN SOME
AREAS BY 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE STRONG TODAY...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO FREQUENTLY BE
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AND MONDAY...WITH UPPER
LOW PULLING EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET TODAY...AS A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND /BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES/ DEVELOPS
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GLAKES/ HELPS TO FURTHER DRY OUT FINE
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW ITS PRESENT 10-12 PERCENT LEVEL ACROSS THE
REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 251100
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL TOP 30 MPH IN SOME
AREAS BY 15Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET TODAY...AS A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND /BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES/ DEVELOPS
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GLAKES/ HELPS TO FURTHER DRY OUT FINE
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW ITS PRESENT 10-12 PERCENT LEVEL ACROSS THE
REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250951
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF BKN-OVC...COLD AIR STRATO
CU STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN AND ALSO THE FAR ERN
PART OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH A 5-10KT
WEST TO NW BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION WERE MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45. THE ALLEGHENIES WERE SEEING DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH BY 8 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR /WITH LAYER PRECIP
WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH/ WILL RESIDE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL PA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER
LOW.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU AS A WEAK/COMPACT
SHORT WAVE /AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/ DROPS SE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF
SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHRA
OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS FROM THE M50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE 10-15F
WARMER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
AS THE BLYR DEPTH INCREASES QUICKLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT NW
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT...AND A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AREA UNDER THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FORM FORMING WHERE
TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE
THAN PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN THE SHELTERED...NORMALLY COLDER RURAL
VALLEYS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL IMPROVE FURTHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS...AND LESS GUSTINESS TO THE WIND.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY WILL
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE BENEFIT FROM A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS EXCELLENT WEATHER TO ACCOMPANY OUR MEMORIAL DAY REFLECTIONS AND
ACTIVITIES WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK GETS MURKY AS THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH
US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250939
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
539 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MAINE ON SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR GENERALLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE AT PHL SHOULD COME IN ABOUT 1 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE... 538
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN MAINE SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 401
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 401
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 401
LONG TERM...DRAG 401
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 401
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 401
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...401
RIP CURRENTS...401
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250746
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMP DROP OVR AREAS N AND E OF PIT HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MRNG BY
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU DECK THAT HAS RECOVERED SINCE MIDNGT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK AND THE REST CONT O
FLIRT WITH THE THRESHOLD. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COUNTIES ARE
IN THE MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S.
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINE WL THUS BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR STRATOCU TO THE NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE WL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFT SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. BRF MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL...WITH IFR AT DUJ...THRU SUNRISE. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS
GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15/07
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250713
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER
PENNSYLVANIA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY ENSURING FAIR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE
BY MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING IR SAT LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATO CU
STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS CLOUD COVER AND A MDTLY TIGHT
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A 7-12KT WEST TO NW
BREEZE...WHICH WAS GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TEENS.
THE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND SUSQ REGION IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. A CLOSE CALL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE REGIONAL ASOS AND
MESO OBS SHOWED MOST TEMPS BETWEEN 33-36F...WITH A FEW MORE DEG OF
COOLING EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA UNTIL 9 AM TODAY.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE MTNS THIS MORNING...IT WILL
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY...AS THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE SCALE RAIN
SHIELD /ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/S DEFORMATION ZONE/ WILL STAY
ACROSS FAR ERN PENN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT
A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF
THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250632
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KJST AND KFIG. SATELLITE TREND
SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERCAST DECK OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT CLEARING RATE NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK BKN/OVC
CIGS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AGAIN SOME
PATCHY EXCEPTIONS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF BRISK WNW WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY SLACKENING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250628
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD THRU TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NW WINDS DOWN DEL BAY HAVE CREATED NEGATIVE WATER LEVEL
DEPARTURES OF -1.5 TO 2.5 FT. WITH THE LOW TIDE APPROACHING...WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SOON...IF IT APPEARS THE THE DEL RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW WATER ALSO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250456
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MASSAGE HOURLY TRENDS.
SFC WIND HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS
BUILD ACRS CNTRL AND ERN OHIO...A BIT E OF LAST NGTS MDL-PROGS.
SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN HAS THUS ERODED STRATOCU E OF A LINE FM
CLARION TO MORGANTOWN AS OF MIDNGT. RESULTING TEMPS ALREADY ARE IN
THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...AND COLD ADVCTN HAS PLUNGED OAKLAND MD
TO 32 F DESPITE BEING OVRCAST.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR
THE UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-
AVERAGE TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 UNDR USING A
BLEND OF ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS
WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVCTN RESUMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...GENLY E OF I 79...WL GRDLY DCRS IN COVG OVRNGT.
MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR SAT.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250337
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF AND GONE NEGATIVE TILT...
WHICH HAS PULLED SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE WEST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250244
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY IN THE U30S OVR THE W MTNS AT 02Z...SO
NOT MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY BTWN 03Z-06Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250146
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS
CONTINUE BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND
MOVE NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250137 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS ARE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN A BIT FASTER
THAN MODELS DEPICTED. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY
WILL USE LATEST RAP MODEL RUN AS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250111
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
911 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT MODERATE BY MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS LIFTING
INTO EASTERN PA. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
ARND 06Z.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE
OVR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 00Z...SO NOT
MUCH COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. EARLY EVENING IR SATL IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WORKS OVR CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW...BRINGING MSUNNY SKIES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A MORE EVEN MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS ACROSS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...ESP SULLIVAN. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHRA OUT OF THE FCST BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED LOW PWATS AND LACK OF
FORCING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 8H...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
FROM THE M50S HIGH TERRAIN...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 10-15F
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS BLYR DEPTH INCREASES...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN
THE 25-30KT RANGE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242326
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242251
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR CENTRAL PA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND N
OF I-80.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS SOUTHWARD
INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE OVR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 21Z...SO NOT MUCH
COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. LATE AFTN VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY.
EXPECT SCT CU ON SAT...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. IPT WILL LIKELY
GO BACK TO BKN SKIES...BUT VFR...GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR WILL
BE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...WITH MONDAY BEING THE BEST
DAY.
WARM ADVECTION ON TUE COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...
MAINLY LATE. WARMER WED...BUT STILL A CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242228 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242133
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR CENTRAL PA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LG
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND N
OF I-80.
CROSS POLAR FLOW DRIVING AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS SOUTHWARD
INTO PA SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE OVR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW
WIND...READINGS ALREADY NR 40F OVR THE W MTNS AT 21Z...SO NOT MUCH
COOLING NEEDED FOR A FREEZE. LATE AFTN VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE...AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DESPITE 8H TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT. SO...BELIEVE SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN PA...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROF LINGER OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR TONIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE APPEARS TO BE OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BASED ON LATEST GEFS/SREF AND HIGH RES NAM DATA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND PRECLUDE
FROST FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242051
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL
KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL BE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT AT 23Z ALG THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND AT 10Z FOR
THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN FROM
S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241926
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241859
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE HAVE NEARLY EXITED MY
EASTERN COUNTIES. COLD BRISK NNW FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANNELED CUMULUS STREETS AND LOCAL UPSLOPE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE FREEZING ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR
TONIGHT. WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...AND PREVENTING FROST
FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE EXTENDED OFF DEALING WITH THE ANOMALOUSY DEEP UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND DRY...ALBEIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WE BENEFIT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE TWO DAYS WILL START THE
EXTENDED OFF IN A RATHER UNEVENTFUL FASHION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK THE FORECAST GETS MURKY AS
THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOVES
THE WESTERLIES NORTHWARD. WITH US BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THESE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WE WILL
BECOME VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IS
BIG WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A WET DAY TUESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE AT THAT
TIME. GEFS SPLASHES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY FAVORED PRECIP
AROUND JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY STARTING TUESDAY. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE PATTERN SUGGEST WHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF A
WARM FRONT THERE IS PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND WARM MUGGY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF BOTH PREDICTING A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS BY LATER WED
INTO THURSDAY...I AM THINKING WE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER
MID WEEK PRETTY CAPPED LEADING TO HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I LIKE
OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241759
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE HAVE NEARLY EXITED MY
EASTERN COUNTIES. COLD BRISK NNW FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANNELED CUMULUS STREETS AND LOCAL UPSLOPE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE FREEZING ACROSS THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNINGS AS IS FOR
TONIGHT. WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...AND PREVENTING FROST
FORMATION. THEREFORE ONLY THE FREEZE HEADLINES ARE HOISTED FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY. STILL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR MORNING SUNSHINE TO LEAD TO
FLAT TO MDT AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS MOST AREAS. BKN CLOUDS AND AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A SHOWER WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE POCONO PLATEAU.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MODERATE SOME 8-12F COMPARED TO
FRIDAY/S HIGHS...WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM 55F NORTH TO 65F SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
KMGW AND KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. STRATOCU
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AND LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241507
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1107 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...
SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING UPPER FRONT PASSAGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MY CWA THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER ARRIVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN SECTIONS WITH WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW
DELIVERING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH THAN
LATE MAY.
TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER BY A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
FARTHER SOUTH...MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE 50S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 25-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE
40S AND 50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
06-13Z TIMEFRAME SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL TOP- OUT IN THE 25-35KT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES
OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING /FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 241332
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. BEHIND
A CFP, NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THEN A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE DURG THE DAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY, THEN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT, IT
COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A MAV/MET
MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON- DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND THESE
WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. ALSO, PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VARIABLE CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION THIS MRNG, WITH SOME IFR
PSBL BUT MORE LIKELY MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR. ITS GOING TO BE ONE
OF THOSE DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241252
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FOR POINTS EAST OF
THE PA/WV/OH LINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 241146
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. RECENT RADAR SHOWS ARE
OF LIGHT RAIN BLOSSOMING OVER ZNY SECTOR...AND EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT THE ERN AIRFIELDS THRU LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN.
VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
/FROM WEST TO EAST/ AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING THRU THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240957
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 24/00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL THAT A STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE MAIN MODEL DIFFS ARE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE NERN CONUS
FLOW. THE 00Z OPRN ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SERN
CANADA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST STATES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IN
CONTRAST TO FLATTER FLOW IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE CMC/GEFS/GFS. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL AS IT
WILL MODULATE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS THRU THE MS/OH/TN VLYS. THE OPRN ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
NEWD MVMT COMPARED TO THE GFS...OWING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED 500-MB
HT FIELD ASSOCD WITH A STRONGER ERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN "RING OF
FIRE" TYPE PATTERN...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ON DAYS 5-6.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
FOLLOWED BY A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PROJECTED HIGHS SHOULD BE AT LEAST +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
FINALS DAYS OF MAY 2013.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
24/09Z UPDATE...CIG TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED OUT AS EXPECTED
WITH IFR OVR THE MTN SITES...MVFR IN THE CNTRL RIDGE/VALLEY
TERMINALS AND VFR ACRS THE SERN AIRFIELDS. NNWLY WINDS ARE ON THE
UP-TICK...ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AT JST.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240938
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY...AND QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL DIP
NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KAVP...SW TO KSEG AND JUST
WEST OF KMDT AT 09Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE READINGS RANGED
THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND AROUND 50F ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLEETING WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY ELEVATION AOA 1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID
MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS AND BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
DO DEVELOP IN THE COOL/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AND INCH OR SO TO SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND RISE JUST A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCTD SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND...OR PERHAPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 06-13Z PERIOD SATURDAY..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLAT TO MDT
AFTERNOON CU ACROSS MOST AREAS. ONE OR TWO POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIDING SE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE DAY. THIS EXPECTED BOOST OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF AT LEAST BKN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
AND NORTH BRANCH.
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE BY SOME 8-12F COMPARED
TO FRIDAY/S HIGHS.
SIMILARLY COLD CONDITIONS /TO THOSE OF EARLY SATURDAY/ ARE VERY
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE CHANCE FOR FROST WILL
ALSO BE GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS GIVEN
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUD SKIES.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
WHERE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON. LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF 40F.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY
AWAY ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL RIDGE SE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 7-12KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES...NEAR CALM AIR AND A THIRD...AND FINALLY NIGHT OF CHILLY /AND
POSSIBLE FROSTY/ CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE EXITING
LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 240813
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE OFFSHORE, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY IN MORNING, THEN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT,
IT COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A
MAV/MET MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON-DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE COOL
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALSO, PW
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, SO
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF ANY SUN COMES OUT
AND ANY HEATING AND MIXING DOES TAKE PLACE, THAT WE COULD BREAK OUT
TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME VFR BY
SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240758
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240647
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
247 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY
AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST
THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW
YORK...SSW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF PENN AT 06Z...AND
SLIDING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. TEMPS
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EXTREME NWRN PENN...AND
THE MEAN 925-850 0C WET BULB LINE IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
05Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELEVATION AOA
1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT
OFF ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE. BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EWD
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEAST
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A COLD AND BLUSTERY NNW FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN WILL TOP-OUT IN THE 25-35KT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FCST AT MDT/LNS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
QUICK WITH IMPROVING CIGS ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT BASES OUT OF IFR RANGE. VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE
TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...SCT PM TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240618
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COOL...SHOWERY
AND QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST
THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
STRONG...SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW
YORK...SSW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE U50S TO L60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF PENN AT 06Z...AND
SLIDING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. TEMPS
HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS EXTREME NWRN PENN...AND
THE MEAN 925-850 0C WET BULB LINE IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE CFRONT /AND STRONG
DIFF PVA IN ITS WAKE/ MOVES OVER THE REGION.
900-850MB WET BULB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO -2C ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS OF PENN BEGINNING IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD...AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH 16Z BEFORE MODERATING A TAD THIS AFTERNOON.
05Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WET SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELEVATION AOA
1800 FT MSL ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING.
ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS /TO PERHAPS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS/ THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS BEFORE
REBOUNDING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERCURY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THEN STAY STEADY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT
OFF ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND 40S ELSEWHERE. BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE THUNDER NOW EAST OF THE AREA NOW. PERHAPS
A BRIEF RUMBLE AT MDT OR LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CIGS STARTING TO COME DOWN AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GO DOWN HILL OVERNIGHT...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240514
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EVE CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SCT COVERAGE INTO...AND
THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE REGION UNDR A
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LLVL. THAT PTN WL WL MAINTAIN SOME
STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED CLD COVER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INTIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OBS-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF SREF MEANS. FOR NOW...HAVE
FORECASTED LOW TO MID 30S...BUT WITHOUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
GIVEN A LACK OF DURATION OF SUB 32 READINGS...AND EXPECTATIONS OF
SUFFICIENT WIND TO PRECLUDE HEAVY FROST FORMATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240346
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1146 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
COOL...SHOWERY...AND ALMOST BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT
2-3 HRS IN THE EAST. CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS IS
FCST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE NW CO.S AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR IN FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-50 PCT THERE DUE TO THE
SCT NATURE - BUT ALMOST EVERYONE WILL GET WET OVERNIGHT IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS/TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE EAST AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE THUNDER NOW EAST OF THE AREA NOW. PERHAPS
A BRIEF RUMBLE AT MDT OR LNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
CIGS STARTING TO COME DOWN AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO GO DOWN HILL OVERNIGHT...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240221
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
COOL...SHOWERY...AND ALMOST BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT
2-3 HRS IN THE EAST. CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE LAURELS IS
FCST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE NW CO.S AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR IN FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS AT 30-50 PCT THERE DUE TO THE
SCT NATURE - BUT ALMOST EVERYONE WILL GET WET OVERNIGHT IN THE
NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDRETHS/TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE EAST AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST HAS MID LVL CLDS AND DECENT VISIBILITY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO DOWN HILL LATER TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 240153
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS
WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTO EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ AND THE MD
EASTERN SHORE LATE THIS EVENING. THEY WERE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE SHOWING STABLE AIR ADVANCING
FROM THE ATLANTIC TO MEET THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THE MAIN CHANGE (OTHER THAN TO MAKE A NOWCAST IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM GRIDS) WAS TO BACK OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH/POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS ONE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE ATLANTIC. FOR THE WESTERN AND PERHAPS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE THUNDER, HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOK ON TARGET. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
LEFT ALONE, EXCEPT WE HAD TO NUDGE DOWN THE HOURLIES FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INTRUSION OF STABLE AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EARLY FRIDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BE FILTERING IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SLOW TO EXIT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKED LIKE A NICE
WX DAY EARLIER IN THE WEEK DOESN`T LOOK NEARLY AS NICE ATTM. THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. THEN, CONDS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND DECENT NWLY FLOW UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE
AREA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND THIS
WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER, OVERALL
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND CERTAINLY BY SUN THERE WILL BE
MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE CST BY TUE AS A WMFNT
APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES THRU THE REGION AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO
THE FCST AROUND TUE INTO WED WITH THE WMFNT.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NRML SAT, IN SOME CASES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NRML....THEN TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON SUN AND MON
BEFORE RISING TO ABV NRML VALUES BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WE FORECAST THUNDER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SITES WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS (AROUND 30 KNOTS) LATE THIS EVENING. WE FORECAST THUNDER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAY UP THE WINDS OVER THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SITES BECAUSE OF THE STABLE AIR AND LOW CLOUDS THAT
HAVE MOVED IN. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS THERE, IT SHOULD BE ELEVATED.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEN
THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLACID SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO WEST.
FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL LATER IN THE DAY WITH WARM
FRONT AND RAIN. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WE MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS,
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
TURN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, WITH SEAS AROUND 5
TO 6 FEET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY STARTING 18Z FRIDAY, AS WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT MRNG AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALSO, HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE
DEL BAY. WITH THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, THERE WILL BE STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW THRU SAT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE WIND WILL HIT SCA AS WELL. SOME GUID
IS EVEN INDICATING GALE POTENTIAL ON SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH ON THAT ATTM THAT NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. AFTER ABOUT
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER NO ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/DELISI
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240120
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
920 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH KPIT AND BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE RIDGES. UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION. REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN PORTS TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240025
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
COOL...SHOWERY...ALMOST BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING IMPROVING AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS GREW INTO TSRA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT
IT HAS QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. LIGHT
RAIN IS ALL THAT IS LEFT TO THE WEST OF THE LINE CURRENTLY THROUGH
BLOOMSBURG/CARLISLE. THE LINE COULD STILL MAKE SOME GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 40S BEFORE 10 PM...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS GETTING
HIGH NOW AS RAIN HAS PROCEEDED THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE IN THE
LOWER SUSQ. FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FIRST BLAST OF COLDER AIR IS
ALREADY INTO WARREN COUNTY...AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE 40S OVER OHIO AND AS LOW AS 39 JUST ACROSS THE POND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER
THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN BETWEEN
THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS ACRS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW
TENS OF AN INCH FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF
ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST HAS MID LVL CLDS AND DECENT VISIBILITY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO DOWN HILL LATER TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240006
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
806 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING IMPROVING AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE LIKELY MODERATING THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHALLOW CONVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS SFC
HEATING HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR. SFC TEMPS ~15F COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO 15 KTS LESS OVERALL...
ACCOUNTING FOR LESSER ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY THUS FAR.
STILL...UPSTREAM CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS ONLY INDICATE TAPPING OF 15 TO 25 KTS AT
15-20K FEET.
ARE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
AT THIS TIME THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER MARGINAL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. SOME TRAINING OCCURRING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A MINOR FLOOD THREAT
OVER LANCASTER COUNTY...AND MAY NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH DECENT BLYR CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED AMTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS
ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENS OF AN INCH FROM
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF
ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS
THE EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A
WARMER SW FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED TAFS FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST HAS MID LVL CLDS AND DECENT VISIBILITY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO DOWN HILL LATER TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SE AND STARTS TO CLOSE OFF.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY...WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MANY SPOTS. FOR NOW...DID BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR LATER IN THE AFT...GIVEN STRONG SUN ANGLE.
WEEKEND LOOKS OK...BUT BREEZY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DECENT...AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUE...AS
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS
COULD FORM...GIVEN VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. BACK TO SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS.
HAVE A GOOD HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232342
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS REGION AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS AND SKY TOWARD CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY SHOWERS BY 9
PM OR SO WITH STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
WEAK WAVE NEAR WHEELING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWEST
AND GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN PORTS TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232233
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS REGION AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS AND SKY TOWARD CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY SHOWERS BY 9
PM OR SO WITH STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
WEAK WAVE NEAR WHEELING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWEST
AND GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTS THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS OR BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY FRIDAY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 232143
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING IMPROVING AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE LIKELY MODERATING THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHALLOW CONVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS SFC
HEATING HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR. SFC TEMPS ~15F COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO 15 KTS LESS OVERALL...
ACCOUNTING FOR LESSER ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY THUS FAR.
STILL...UPSTREAM CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS ONLY INDICATE TAPPING OF 15 TO 25 KTS AT
15-20K FEET.
ARE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
AT THIS TIME THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER MARGINAL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. SOME TRAINING OCCURRING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A MINOR FLOOD THREAT
OVER LANCASTER COUNTY...AND MAY NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH DECENT BLYR CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED AMTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS
ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENS OF AN INCH FROM
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF
ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS THE
EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A WARMER SW
FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS FOR CURRENT CONVECTION AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE. SOME STRONG TO LCLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE...MAINLY IN
ZNY SECTOR. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH OCNL MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS S/W DIGS ACRS VA ON FRIDAY AND
MAY EVEN FORM A CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CIGS AND -RA WITH A BREEZY NNW WIND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WORST FLYING CONDS SHOULD BE ON FRIDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD FROM THE
GRT LKS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 232012
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS
WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT LATE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY FROM EASTERN PA INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NJ, WITH A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE DELMARVA. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A LEE-SIDE TROUGH, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MENTION OF T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, AS LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000
J/KG AND MODEL DATA DEPICTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS.
IN ADDITION, PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH,
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART, AND WE HAVE ALREADY HAD SOME
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHWRS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWRS/STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING, POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING OF
FRIDAY. WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO
LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EARLY FRIDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BE FILTERING IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SLOW TO EXIT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKED LIKE A NICE
WX DAY EARLIER IN THE WEEK DOESN`T LOOK NEARLY AS NICE ATTM. THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. THEN, CONDS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND DECENT NWLY FLOW UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE
AREA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND THIS
WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER, OVERALL
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND CERTAINLY BY SUN THERE WILL BE
MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE CST BY TUE AS A WMFNT
APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES THRU THE REGION AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO
THE FCST AROUND TUE INTO WED WITH THE WMFNT.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NRML SAT, IN SOME CASES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NRML....THEN TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON SUN AND MON
BEFORE RISING TO ABV NRML VALUES BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHWRS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE EXPECT CEILINGS
TO LOWER TO IFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY,
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING OF FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL LATER IN THE DAY WITH WARM
FRONT AND RAIN. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WE MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS,
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
TURN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, WITH SEAS AROUND 5
TO 6 FEET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY STARTING 18Z FRIDAY, AS WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT MRNG AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALSO, HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE
DEL BAY. WITH THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, THERE WILL BE STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW THRU SAT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE WIND WILL HIT SCA AS WELL. SOME GUID
IS EVEN INDICATING GALE POTENTIAL ON SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH ON THAT ATTM THAT NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. AFTER ABOUT
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER NO ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 232001
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING IMPROVING AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE LIKELY MODERATING THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHALLOW CONVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS SFC
HEATING HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR. SFC TEMPS ~15F COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO 15 KTS LESS OVERALL...
ACCOUNTING FOR LESSER ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY THUS FAR.
STILL...UPSTREAM CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS ONLY INDICATE TAPPING OF 15 TO 25 KTS AT
15-20K FEET.
ARE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
AT THIS TIME THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER MARGINAL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. SOME TRAINING OCCURRING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A MINOR FLOOD THREAT
OVER LANCASTER COUNTY...AND MAY NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH DECENT BLYR CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED AMTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS
ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENS OF AN INCH FROM
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF
ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT
APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WIDESPREAD
FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO HAVE
LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT TEMPS
JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EXITING LOW...SO WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FROST OVER THE NW MTNS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS THE
EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A WARMER SW
FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE. SOME STRONG TO LCLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE...MAINLY IN
ZNY SECTOR. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH OCNL MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS S/W DIGS ACRS VA ON FRIDAY AND
MAY EVEN FORM A CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CIGS AND -RA WITH A BREEZY NNW WIND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WORST FLYING CONDS SHOULD BE ON FRIDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD FROM THE
GRT LKS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW CIGS WITH AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY NNW WINDS.
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 231837
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING IMPROVING AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE LIKELY MODERATING THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHALLOW CONVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS SFC
HEATING HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR. SFC TEMPS ~15F COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO AND SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO 15 KTS LESS OVERALL...
ACCOUNTING FOR LESSER ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY THUS FAR.
STILL...UPSTREAM CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY OVER
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND MAY AID IN DESTABLIZATION FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS ONLY INDICATE TAPPING OF 15 TO 25 KTS AT
15-20K FEET.
ARE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
AT THIS TIME THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER MARGINAL...WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. SOME TRAINING OCCURRING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS PRODUCING A MINOR FLOOD THREAT
OVER LANCASTER COUNTY...AND MAY NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH DECENT BLYR CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED AMTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS
ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENS OF AN INCH FROM
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A GOOD CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
AND PROPOGATES EASTWARD. COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MAMKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS IN ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF MAY SHUT OFF
ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN CO.
WELL CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE MAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHUD GUST BTWN 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE
50S...COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
BRRR...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AFOREMENTIONED PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRI NIGHT...SO
WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO
HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT
TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES.
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS THE
EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A WARMER SW
FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE. SOME STRONG TO LCLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE...MAINLY IN
ZNY SECTOR. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH OCNL MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS S/W DIGS ACRS VA ON FRIDAY AND
MAY EVEN FORM A CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CIGS AND -RA WITH A BREEZY NNW WIND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WORST FLYING CONDS SHOULD BE ON FRIDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD FROM THE
GRT LKS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW CIGS WITH AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY NNW WINDS.
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231825
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILE IS EVIDENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
COMING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY 30 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. DUE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMED
BEFORE NOON...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH EACH
PASSING HOUR. THIS IS DUE TO RAPID COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS
EVIDENT ON ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AS WELL AS YET ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE HAVE MANAGED TO
HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE LOW LEVEL START TO STABILIZE.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STARTS TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING ROUGHLY 6-7 PM IN OHIO AND
REACHING PITTSBURGH 9-11 PM OR SO. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN
NORTHWEST AND GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S AND
INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTS THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS OR BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY FRIDAY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231630
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BIT OF A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WAVE THAT IS DEPARTING
TO THE EAST LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...AND IN
ADVANCE OF IT...MID-LEVEL COOLING WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RATHER TREMENDOUSLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS SHOULD FLOURISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND
RIDGE ZONES. WITH THE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE VALUES
ARE EVIDENT ON ALL GUIDANCE WITH DECENT SHEAR SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO MORE PERVASIVE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SECOND
WAVE...TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING PRETTY EFFICIENTLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED OVERALL DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION
EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS WE HAVE ALREADY ECLIPSED OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
MORE INCREASED IN CONVERAGE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE REGION TNGT...BUT CHC POPS
WERE MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPR
TROF. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD SUPPRESS THOSE RESIDUAL CHCS BY FRIDAY
AFTN.
ISSUE THEREAFTER IS OF TEMPS AS DVLPMNT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN
CONUS TROF SPPRTS STRNG COLD ADVCTN. SHOULD SFC WIND DIMINISH
SUFFICIENTLY...PTCHY FROST IS PSBL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
SREF MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WRMFNT MAY APRCH BY MID WEEK BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ANY PCPN MENTION ATTM. TEMPS WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE
WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS OR BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS BUT WILL AMEND TAFS WHERE TSTMS BECOME MORE LIKELY. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG
HIGH PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 231552
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BE UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BEFORE LIKELY MODERATING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREFRONTAL TROF SWINGING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATE THIS
MORNING. BINOVC ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH DESTABLIZATION OCCURRING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF PA. FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO SFC COLD FRONT IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA AND THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SVR
WATCH BY SPC AS PER A RECENT SWOMCD. THIS THREAT OF COURSE WILL
SPREAD FARTHER EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...IMPACTING THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQ. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLOWER MOVING CELLS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FEEDING NWD FROM THE WRN ATLC ALONG WITH
DECENT BLYR CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET SHOULD
SUPPORT MOD RAINS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH AMTS BTWN
0.50-1.00 INCH. LOCALIZED AMTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ
RIVER.
COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PCPN PROCESS BECOMES MORE
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN AS MDLS DEPICT A DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING
ACRS N-CNTRL PA LATE TNT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. QPF AMTS WILL BE ON THE
LGT SIDE /0.10-0.25 INCH/ IN THE 00-12Z PERIOD. THE SENSIBLE WX
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM RECENT SUMMER-LIKE HEAT TO COOL/DAMP
AND CLOUDY CONDS WITH AN INCREASING N/NW WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA ALL INDICATING DIGGING TROF WILL CUT OFF OVR WESTERN PA
ON FRIDAY. STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AS DEPICTED
BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...SHOULD SUPPORT A GOOD CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT.
HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS /NR 80 PCT/ ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MTNS BASED ON LATEST GEFS OUTPUT AND ANTICIPATION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF
MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING CUT OFF
WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WARREN
CO.
A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HIGH OVR THE LAKES AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY FOR LATE
MAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BTWN
25-30KTS DURING FRI AFTN. TEMPS IN THE 50S...COMBINED WITH THESE
GUSTY WINDS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S
DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.
MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. ATTM...AFOREMENTIONED PRES GRADIENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO KEEP THE WINDS UP FRI NIGHT...SO WIDESPREAD FROST SEEMS
UNLIKELY. HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON WITHOUT A CALM WIND...SO HAVE LEANED ON THE
WARM SIDE OF MOS /CLOSER TO EC MOS/ AND KEPT TEMPS JUST ABV FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE W MTNS FRI NIGHT.
MDL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHRA IN THE FCST THRU FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...AND TAPERED THEM OFF LATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN PA WILL REMAIN ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW SAT/SAT
NIGHT. SO...HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD FCST A BIT OVR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA OVR SULLIVAN
OR SCHUYLKILL CO. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IN A MSUNNY SATURDAY IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AS ALL MDL DATA PULLS LOW PWAT AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PA ON SAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE...MDL 8H TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL SHOULD CAP READINGS IN THE
L/M 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEEP MIXING SHOULD DRAW SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO THE SFC AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 800MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS BTWN 25-30KTS BY AFTN.
BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WX HOLDING THRU MEMORIAL DAY...ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. ACROSS THE
EAST...SFC HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN A WARMER SW
FLOW. SOME MDL DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURNS. HOWEVER...HAVE GRADUALLY INTRODUCED A CHC OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5/23/12Z...SOME RESTRICTIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED ACRS THE AIRSPACE
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS. HOWEVER EXPECT VFR TO RESUME WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. TSTM IMPACTS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN.
LG SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SFC COLD FRONT...IMPINGING ON RESERVOIR OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD INTO THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN NMRS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN. SOME STRONG TO LCLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE...MAINLY IN
ZNY SECTOR. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH OCNL MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS S/W DIGS ACRS VA ON FRIDAY AND
MAY EVEN FORM A CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CIGS AND -RA WITH A BREEZY NNW WIND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WORST FLYING CONDS SHOULD BE ON FRIDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD FROM THE
GRT LKS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI...LOW CIGS WITH AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY NNW WINDS.
SAT-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231515
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1115 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BIT OF A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WAVE THAT IS DEPARTING
TO THE EAST LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...AND IN
ADVANCE OF IT...MID-LEVEL COOLING WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RATHER TREMENDOUSLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS SHOULD FLOURISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND
RIDGE ZONES. WITH THE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE VALUES
ARE EVIDENT ON ALL GUIDANCE WITH DECENT SHEAR SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO MORE PERVASIVE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SECOND
WAVE...TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING PRETTY EFFICIENTLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED OVERALL DUE TO ADDITIONAL INSOLATION
EXPECTATIONS. THIS MEANS WE HAVE ALREADY ECLIPSED OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
MORE INCREASED IN CONVERAGE. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE REGION TNGT...BUT CHC POPS
WERE MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPR
TROF. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD SUPPRESS THOSE RESIDUAL CHCS BY FRIDAY
AFTN.
ISSUE THEREAFTER IS OF TEMPS AS DVLPMNT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN
CONUS TROF SPPRTS STRNG COLD ADVCTN. SHOULD SFC WIND DIMINISH
SUFFICIENTLY...PTCHY FROST IS PSBL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
SREF MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WRMFNT MAY APRCH BY MID WEEK BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ANY PCPN MENTION ATTM. TEMPS WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE
WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR AT ALL PORTS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN
TSTMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG
HIGH PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 231443
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1043 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND
SLOWLY TRUNDLE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE, WE DECREASED POPS SOME FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE CAPTURING TRENDS TODAY FAIRLY WELL. WE ALSO
DECREASED T-STORM COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED USING LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE, AS TEMPS WERE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW, CONSIDERING
THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR DELMARVA REGION, AND THIS MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE MAX TEMPS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, A RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE TODAY AS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND TOWARD OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL, LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE SPC HAS
PLACED A PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. BUT WE COULD STILL HAVE CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, AND WITH SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KNOTS, WE
COULD HAVE A FEW STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WINDS.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, ALTHOUGH THE MAV WAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE USED A BLEND, WITH MAJORITY OF THE MAV MOS. THIS
WILL GIVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, AND IF THE SUN COMES
OUT AT ALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A FEW AREAS COULD REACH
80 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
OUR AREA AND THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET, BUT WITH MORE
PVA EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,
ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, MAY BE NEAR THE COAST BY
SUNRISE. WITH PW VALUES STILL AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SOME HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEITHER THE GFS NOR WRF-NMMB LOOKED STELLAR OFF THEIR
INITIALIZATION. IN FACT A MODEL COMPROMISE SEEMED TO LOOK THE BEST.
OVERALL THOUGH THE DP/DT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WAS SLOWER AND
THIS FCST PACKAGE DID GO THAT WAY WITH A WETTER START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OP GFS AND CLOSEST TO A MODELING
CONSENSUS. THE MODEL 500MB PATTERN FORECAST IS ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
MAY, SO WE DID EDGE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS.
THE SLOWING FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AS WE START THE
LONG TERM. WITH THE TROF SHARPENING, IT BECOMES AN UNDERRUNNER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ALOFT EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING
OFFSHORE. WE INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEORETICALLY THUNDER COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON (FRI NIGHT OFF
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF). NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT TEMP FCST AS DAYTIME MAX
TEMP MAY BE DRIVEN BY HOW FAR TEMPS FALL BY 12Z FRIDAY. KIND OF
RARE TO HAVE TEMPS GO NOWHERE ON A MAY DAY (AND ALSO HAVE THE
CALENDAR DAY HIGH POSSIBLY OCCUR AT 101 AM) AND WE SHOWED A SLIGHT
BUMP UP FOR NOW.
AS THE TROF ALOFT CLOSES, MODEL DIAGS ARE SHOWING SOME RATHER ROBUST
MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AND FGEN FORCING FORECAST AND A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROWAL OVER OUR CWA WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 250MB JET TO BOOT. ITS NO WONDER THAT QPF HAVE BECOME
WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT STILL DEPENDS UPON HOW
QUICKLY AND FAR SOUTH THE 500MB LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW WE REMAIN MOST
CONFIDENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WHILE POPS WERE
INCREASED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE BOARD, THE HIGHEST
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING THUNDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (NONE OF THE MODELS DO ON
SATURDAY), WE PRECLUDED THEM. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS SATURDAY MOVES ALONG, BUT WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER THE
CLOSED LOW, ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH SUNSHINE BEFORE WE SELF
DESTRUCT. MIN AND MAX TEMPS WERE EDGED LOWER AND CLOSE TO A STAT
GUIDANCE COMPROMISE.
WE KEPT IN PCPN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND KEPT SUNDAY
DRY. WE WILL STILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE CLOSED LOW, SO
MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FARTHER
NORTHEAST ONE IS WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SHOWED A TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT
VS SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH UNTIL THE MODEL TREND
SETTLES.
WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WARM FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A CLOUDY, RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY AS SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE IN
THE MVFR RANGE, AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS MENTIONED, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD REDUCE VSBYS IF HEAVY ENOUGH. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, SO WE WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER MORE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 5-6 FEET TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DAY FOR NOW. WINDS MAY
NOT BE A FACTOR, BUT SWELLS SHOULD REMAIN. THE INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OUR AREA WATERS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT EVEN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON/KLINE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231327
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BIT OF A DRIER PERIOD BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S WAVE THAT IS DEPARTING
TO THE EAST LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...AND IN
ADVANCE OF IT...MID-LEVEL COOLING WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RATHER TREMENDOUSLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS SHOULD FLOURISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND
RIDGE ZONES. WITH THE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE VALUES
ARE EVIDENT ON ALL GUIDANCE WITH DECENT SHEAR SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE REGION TNGT...BUT CHC POPS
WERE MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPR
TROF. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD SUPPRESS THOSE RESIDUAL CHCS BY FRIDAY
AFTN.
ISSUE THEREAFTER IS OF TEMPS AS DVLPMNT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN
CONUS TROF SPPRTS STRNG COLD ADVCTN. SHOULD SFC WIND DIMINISH
SUFFICIENTLY...PTCHY FROST IS PSBL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
SREF MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WRMFNT MAY APRCH BY MID WEEK BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ANY PCPN MENTION ATTM. TEMPS WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE
WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR AT ALL PORTS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN
TSTMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG
HIGH PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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