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000
FXUS61 KCTP 230954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
554 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/09Z...UPDATE...IR STLT/SFC OBS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOG/ST
IMPACTING TERMINALS THAN IN RECENT MORNINGS. RADAR SHOWS LINE OF
STORMS CROSSING LK ERIE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS PREV FCST
BELOW. A SECOND LINE OF SCT SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AFJ-
DUJ LINE AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS BY 12Z.

23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 230954
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
554 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/09Z...UPDATE...IR STLT/SFC OBS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOG/ST
IMPACTING TERMINALS THAN IN RECENT MORNINGS. RADAR SHOWS LINE OF
STORMS CROSSING LK ERIE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS PREV FCST
BELOW. A SECOND LINE OF SCT SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AFJ-
DUJ LINE AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LAURELS BY 12Z.

23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RANFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 230937
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF
THE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN DISSIPATE FOR THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE NEW CONVECTION
INITIATES ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE ATTM
IS OVER LOCALLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LLVLS...AND IS PROGGED BY
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND EVEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS
NWRN PENN. 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS DROPPED OFF
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. STILL PAINTED CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS NW WARREN COUNTY AROUND 12Z
SINCE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD NO SIGN OF CONVECTION EVEN
REACHING THE CENTRAL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ATTM.

A DRY START TO THE DAY AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NW ZONES...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SPC HAS MAINTAINED A /SEE TEXT/ FOR ALL OF PENN WITHIN THEIR DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER
THE GUN FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA GIVEN THE BETTER COMBINATION
OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE. STILL...MODERATE-HIGH SFC
BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OCCURENCES OF
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND LOWER 90S IN THE GREATER
YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FQT LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME FAIRLY LARGE
HAIL/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WHILE THE FAR NW SEES SHOWERS DECREASE/MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AS
THE CFRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KBFD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL ZONES AOB 00Z THUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

24-HOUR...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE ABOUT 4-5 TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FROM JUST ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE STATE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RANFALL OF
OVER 1 INCH.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE MUGGY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION...TO
THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 230934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
534 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WITH SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE NEAR 5000
FT AS THE KI BUILDS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHESAPEAKE BAY PER MULTI
MODEL KI CONSENSUS? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS
AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z
DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE
CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 5 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG.
EXCEPTION SOUTHERN DE TO THE S TIP OF NJ WHERE IFR CIGS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. IFR CIGS MAY GRAZE KMIV
THIS MORNING TIL 13-14Z? OTHERWISE...BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT WINDS
SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY EVEN IF THE CURRENT 8 SECOND PERIOD INCREASES TO
10 SECONDS FOR A 1.5 TO 2 FT SE SWELL. THE FCST WAS FACTORED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON STRONGEST SSE WIND TO 15 KT. TO BE SAFEST...SWIM
IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS. THE NO SWIMMING SIGNS MEAN JUST THAT AND
LIKELY WERE POSTED BECAUSE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLY ADVERSE EVENT AT
THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE PAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  535
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 535
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 535






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
534 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WITH SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE NEAR 5000
FT AS THE KI BUILDS WITH A LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHESAPEAKE BAY PER MULTI
MODEL KI CONSENSUS? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS
AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z
DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE
CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 5 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG.
EXCEPTION SOUTHERN DE TO THE S TIP OF NJ WHERE IFR CIGS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. IFR CIGS MAY GRAZE KMIV
THIS MORNING TIL 13-14Z? OTHERWISE...BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER 22Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT WINDS
SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY EVEN IF THE CURRENT 8 SECOND PERIOD INCREASES TO
10 SECONDS FOR A 1.5 TO 2 FT SE SWELL. THE FCST WAS FACTORED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON STRONGEST SSE WIND TO 15 KT. TO BE SAFEST...SWIM
IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS. THE NO SWIMMING SIGNS MEAN JUST THAT AND
LIKELY WERE POSTED BECAUSE OF SOME SORT OF HIGHLY ADVERSE EVENT AT
THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE PAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  535
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 535
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 535






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND
BEHIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT
CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST
OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR.

BY LATE MORNING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL
LOOKS GOOD AND CAN BE REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS IF NEED BE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST NEAR 12KTS WITH FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND
BEHIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT
CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST
OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR.

BY LATE MORNING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL
LOOKS GOOD AND CAN BE REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS IF NEED BE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST NEAR 12KTS WITH FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND
BEHIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT
CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST
OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR.

BY LATE MORNING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL
LOOKS GOOD AND CAN BE REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS IF NEED BE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST NEAR 12KTS WITH FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND
BEHIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT
CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST
OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT IFR.

BY LATE MORNING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL
LOOKS GOOD AND CAN BE REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS IF NEED BE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST NEAR 12KTS WITH FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEN, A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ERLY THU, BUT LINGERING SHWRS
AND TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH ANY INSTABILITY STILL AROUND.
THE BEST CHCS ARE ERLY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
W AND DOMINATE THE WX PATN THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED THRU SAT. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND SWLY AND EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.

THEN, BY SUN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NR THE GRTLKS WILL BE MOVG
EWD. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS STILL A MATTER OF DEBATE BTWN THE
MDLS, THEY DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF DOUBLE
BARRELED-LOW STRUCTURE BY SUN NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A WK CFP WITH
THE FIRST LOW SUN NIGHT OR MON, THE MAIN CFP WILL BE MON NIGHT OR
TUE WITH THE SECOND LOW. AGAIN, THE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE, BUT THE SUN INTO MON TIME FRAME COULD
BE STORMY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING CDFNT FOR TUE. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU THE PD, UNTIL THE CFP ON
TUE WHEN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NRML. EXPECT COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
ERLY IN THE PD, THEN INCREASING HUMIDITY IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP
ERLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD.

SUN...INCREASING SEAS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MAY YIELD SCA, ESPECIALLY
N BY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BETTER
RETURN FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY SPILLING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A BETTER
RETURN FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY SPILLING
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
PATCHY CLOUDINESS FORMING...AOA 5000 FT AS A SEPARATE KI AXIS
DEVELOPS OVER NJ/EPA TOWARD 12Z.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER. ECMWF SEEMS TO HOLD BACK SLIGHTLY. THE
FCST TEMPS ISSUED AT 330 AM MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S....CLOSE TO 100 BUT NO HEAT ADVY ISSUED ATTM.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND E CENTRAL AND NE PA AFTER
21Z...POSSIBLY A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2
KI INCREASING TO 38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT
CASE...UNLIKELY SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB
WINDS UNDER 30 KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ
AS THIS LEADING PATCH OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

TODAYS FCST BASIS: NAM TEMPS (50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/23 NAM METMOS AND
THE NAM 2M TEMPS). OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS A 50 50 BLEND OF
THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THIS 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD
YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD.
ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR FOR SVR IS MARGINAL AT
WORST AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE THE BIG PROBLEM?

FCST BASIS; 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THIS 330
AM ISSUANCE EXCEPT MOSTLY NAM METMOS TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF
LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT 3 AM ARE JUST TOO LARGE FOR FOG. LIGHT
S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND CHC OF A TSTM THERE AFTER
22Z WITH GUSTY WEST WIND 30-40 KT. OTHERWISE NON TSTM GRADIENT
WINDS SUGGEST SW WIND GUST 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN TSTMS.
LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG MIGHT
FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WEST WIND IN A TSTM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FOR KTTN
KPNE KPHL AND KILG BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAN FOR KABE AND KRDG
OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 3A






000
FXUS61 KCTP 230649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/06Z...CUT BACK ON FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS TRENDS AND LGT
S-SW GRADIENT SFC WIND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SEWD ACRS LWR MI
TWD THE ERN LKS. LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS
LK ERIE ARE FCST BY COSPA/HRRR/SPC 4KM WRF TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
AS THEY REACH NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..AS IT SHIFTS
SEWD ACRS THE AIRSPACE. CVRG SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN PRTNS OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME STG TO LCLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE. PREVAILING CONDS WILL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN TSRA IMPACTS. WND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BY TONIGHT
WITH MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY BCMG CONFINED TO SERN AREAS INTO THU.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR SEEMS PROBABLE OVER WRN SXNS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR/NO SIG WX.
SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLD PM TSTM PSBL.
SUN...TSTM IMPACTS LKLY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACRS AIRSPACE.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 230605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230605
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A REFRESHING...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED
WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 9-11C WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR BUT MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A FEW DEG SHY OF THE
EXPECTED MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS EARLY TUESDAY.

A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SLIDING SE ACROSS THE PENNSINSULA OF SRN
ONTARIO IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND ENCOUNTERS THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS NWRN
PENN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY STARK FOR MID JULY AND
FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR
SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230503 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT AND
UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHER INSTABILITY
LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A LIFTED
INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT CLEARING THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDS...SO A REPEAT
OF MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING COULD BE IN STORE. IN SHORT...SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS...THE MORE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR OR WORSE.

ANY OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDS AS
INCREASED SW SFC FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD CAUSE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WEST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING EAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...WITH 5-10KT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230503 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER A BIT AND
UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHER INSTABILITY
LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND A LIFTED
INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT CLEARING THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDS...SO A REPEAT
OF MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING COULD BE IN STORE. IN SHORT...SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS...THE MORE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR OR WORSE.

ANY OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDS AS
INCREASED SW SFC FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD CAUSE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WEST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING EAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...WITH 5-10KT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 1230 AM FURTHER ESTF UPDATE HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE FOG
IN THE FCST AND DELAYED IT. TOO MUCH TT/TD SPREAD AT 04Z.

FAIR EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG TOWARD 10Z...MAINLY NW NJ.
USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
FOGGER TOOL.

TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY. MODEL GUIDANCE STATES WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE JUST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE ATLC SHORE
A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER BEREFT
OF HEAT.

HAVE WITHDRAWN MORNING THUNDER IN E PA AND NW NJ.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1231A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1231A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230417
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 1130 PM UPDATE DELAYED THE ONSET OF FOG SLIGHTLY...AND ADJUSTED
THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATE EVENING TRENDS.

FAIR OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG LATE. MOST OF IT SHOULD BE CONFINED
THE I78 REGION NWWD.

WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH STATES
WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S (NEAR 18C 850 MB AND 925MB HOTTEST TEMPS ARE
JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR FCST AREA). POCONOS AND IMMEDIATE
ATLC SHORE A BIT COOLER.

HEAT INDEX UPPER 90S. NO HEAT ADVY IN THIS CONTINUING SUMMER
BEREFT OF HEAT.

TSTMS PROBABLY RESTRICTED TO NW NJ AND NE PA AFTER 21Z...POSSIBLY
A SECOND CLUSTER CROSSING CHES BAY? TT 48+ SWI -2 KI INCREASING TO
38C VCNTY POCS AND E VA. APPEARS TO BE A SEE TEXT CASE...UNLIKELY
SVR THROUGH 00Z DUE TO LACK OF BULK SHEAR...500MB WINDS UNDER 30
KT AND MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1600J.

NOTE THAT THERE SHOULD BE CU FIELDS FORMING THIS MORNING OVER NNJ
IN A LEADING EDGE AREA OF KI 33C BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRIMARY
FORCING AM NOT EXPECTING TO YIELD ANY LATE MORNING TSTMS IN NNJ AS
THIS LEAD AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOVES ENE TO LI BY 18Z.

PROBABLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IN THE 330
AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW SEWD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SHOULD YIELD BANDS OF TSTMS INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT NOT NECESSARILY
WIDESPREAD. ONE OR 2 TSTMS COULD BE SVR BUT BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL
AT WORST FOR SVR AND ONLY THE TT AND SOME CAPE ALLOW FOR MODEST
ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.8 INCHES OFFERS A CHANCE OF NARROW PATHS OF 2 INCH RAINS
BENEATH THE BIGGEST STORMS.

50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE IN THE 330 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA
4000 FT. PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YDY. TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT MIDNIGHT ARE JUST TOO LARGE. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT. BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 5000
FT VCNTY KABE AND KRDG THIS AFTN AND SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM THERE
AFTER 22Z. SW WIND G 17 KT THIS AFTN MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A BETTER CHC OF BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
TSTMS. LIGHT SW WIND SHIFT N TOWARD MORNING WHEN PATCHY IFR ST/FOG
MIGHT FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OR WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY S-SW WIND G UNDER 20 KT SHIFT TO NORTH TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1218A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1218A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 1218A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 1218A







000
FXUS61 KCTP 230129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM MID LEVEL LAYER KEPT CONVECTION LARGELY AT BAY THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH
SHALLOW CUMULUS BUILDUPS ELSEWHERE. FINAL REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHOWER EVIDENT OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL END POPS BY
03Z WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TUE MORNING...AND IT WILL BE
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SLEEPING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM MID LEVEL LAYER KEPT CONVECTION LARGELY AT BAY THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH
SHALLOW CUMULUS BUILDUPS ELSEWHERE. FINAL REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY ARE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHOWER EVIDENT OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL END POPS BY
03Z WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TUE MORNING...AND IT WILL BE
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SLEEPING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 230129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT
MOSTLY MVFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT KRDG WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, AT KRDG, IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION
AFTER 21Z, AND FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST, STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECT DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT
MOSTLY MVFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT KRDG WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, AT KRDG, IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION
AFTER 21Z, AND FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST, STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY/POP GRIDS ONCE AGAIN TO ADDRESS DYING
RIDGETOP SHRA AS WELL AS COLLAPSING CU. QUIET NIGHT
OTHERWISE...WITH PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDS...SO A REPEAT
OF MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING COULD BE IN STORE. IN SHORT...SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS...THE MORE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR OR WORSE.

ANY OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDS AS
INCREASED SW SFC FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD CAUSE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WEST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING EAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...WITH 5-10KT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 222345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 222345
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...AND THESE MAY AFFECT KJST AND
KAOO AIRFIELDS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

REMAINING DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR LOWER IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE AT KBFD...WITH MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE LATER MORNING
WEST...AND AFTERNOON EAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT COVERAGE IS
BEFORE PAINTING IN CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

 &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDS...SO A REPEAT
OF MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING COULD BE IN STORE. IN SHORT...SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS...THE MORE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR OR WORSE.

ANY OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDS AS
INCREASED SW SFC FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD CAUSE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WEST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING EAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...WITH 5-10KT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME. NOT EXPECTING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDS...SO A REPEAT
OF MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING COULD BE IN STORE. IN SHORT...SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS...THE MORE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR OR WORSE.

ANY OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDS AS
INCREASED SW SFC FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD CAUSE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WEST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING EAST. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...WITH 5-10KT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM - UPDATED TO AMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
WHERE SHRA CONTINUE TO FIRE...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET...WHEN THESE AND ANY REMAINING CU WILL
FALL APART.  MINOR CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE
EVENING. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE
VERY LOW/SPARSE. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VIZ RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR BUT WITH IMPACTS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS..ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.

FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 222007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. THE TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. THE ECMWF IN LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED UP THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHERE THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE SPED UP ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY...AS THE EC
CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION SO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE
IN CLOSER TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED POPS/TIME.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE STATE TIL MONDAY...WHERE
SURPRISINGLY AT THIS POINT...THE EC AND GFS COME CLOSELY IN PHASE.
THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE
EVENING. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE
VERY LOW/SPARSE. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VIZ RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR BUT WITH IMPACTS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS..ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.

FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAINED FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CUMULUS. IT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THERE WERE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN LANCASTER COUNTY
AND VICINITY AT MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND CHESTER COUNTY UP INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL ABOUT 6 OR 7 O`CLOCK.

THE CUMULUS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4000 TO 5000
FOOT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THE CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221953
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER RETURN FLOW TOMORROW AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
SPILLING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAINED FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CUMULUS. IT WAS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THERE WERE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN LANCASTER COUNTY
AND VICINITY AT MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND CHESTER COUNTY UP INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL ABOUT 6 OR 7 O`CLOCK.

THE CUMULUS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT,
THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA
LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 18C OR 19C, SO MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE.
DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70 RESULTING IN MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTH ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
SOUTHWEST INLAND AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2500
J/KG IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP MAY PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UP IN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD THOUGH AS THE CASE DURING THE SUMMER, IT WILL NOT A QUICK PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
OVERHEAD AND DEEPER TROUGHING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES, AGAIN, COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RATHER ROBUST, AROUND 25
KNOTS...BETTER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE REGION SO WE KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...COULD BE LONG IN THE
TOOTH.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY BECOMING ZONAL. THIS YIELDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME AS SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SWINGS A PIECE ENERGY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE
STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWERS...BETTER EAST THAN WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST SENDING STRONGER SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY
INTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF DEEPER
TROUGHING. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONGTERM AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES PUSHES THROUGH ALOFT TOUCHING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4000 TO 5000
FOOT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG AND KABE. THE CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET. WAVES ON
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS STILL IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND MID LEVELS BEGINNING
TO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE
WITH LOCAL HI RES MODELS PROGGING THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
CAPE...AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AS SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET...YIELDING ANOTHER MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. SOME MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME AT THE
MOMENT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 221746
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABLITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE
EVENING. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE
VERY LOW/SPARSE. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VIZ RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR BUT WITH IMPACTS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS..ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.

FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221746
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS LED TO THE DEMISE OF THE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING MORE CUMULUS FORM. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATE A COUPLE OF SMALL SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...BUT THE WARM DRY AIR ALOFT IS SO FAR
KEEPING ACTIVITY MAINLY CAPPED.

MESO ANAL SHOWS A TONGUE OF MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2000J NOSING INTO
SWRN PA BUT ALSO INDICATES VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
EXPECTATIONS OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABLITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EAST TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 OVER THE SE AND IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
NW.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...DRY BUT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID
NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

A DRY START TO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FORCING INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY
STARK FOR MID JULY AND FORECAST CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J SUGGEST
SPC MIGHT EXPAND THEIR SLIGHT RISK WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY
IT LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED AND WET DAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

THANKS TO A WARMING LOW LEVEL WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE
EVENING. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE
VERY LOW/SPARSE. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE EVENING.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VIZ RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TERMINALS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR BUT WITH IMPACTS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS..ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.

FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS BUILDUPS CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERATED
BY INTENSE INSOLATION EARLIER TODAY AND A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 10 KFT HAVE MANAGED TO ALLOW FOR SAID CUMULUS TO BE QUITE
WIDESPREAD AROUND THE REGION. THAT SAID...ONLY AROUND THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES DO THESE BUILDUPS SEEM TO BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO CAUSE A SHOWER OR TWO.

OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE AS RAGGED MID-CLOUD
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AN EARLY HARBINGER OF
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST COLUMN RH VALUES FAIL
TO REACH OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNUP. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES SEEM LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RIDGETOP
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY WELL UP OVERNIGHT AS 17-18C IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS WE WILL MUSTER AT 850 MB. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS
STRADDLING 70F WILL MAKE DIURNAL FALLS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. AS A
RESULT...A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG POSSIBLE BY MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO THE WATERS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY
E PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND OVER THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET. THE
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO THE WATERS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY
E PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND OVER THE FAR UPPER
DELMARVA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET. THE
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 6
KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EVEN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BUILDUPS.
HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RUN AWAY
WARMING. EVEN WITH SAID POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT
90F IN MANY LOCATIONS SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT
JULY SUN. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING EVEN WITH THE
WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1141 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EVEN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BUILDUPS.
HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RUN AWAY
WARMING. EVEN WITH SAID POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT
90F IN MANY LOCATIONS SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT
JULY SUN. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING EVEN WITH THE
WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 221439
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW CLOUDS STACKED UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENIES ARE FINALLY SHOWING
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND WILL LEAD TO A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. IT
IS WARM AND HUMID AND ONCE AGAIN TODAY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
ISOLATED BUILDUPS LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

MESO ANAL SHOWS STABILITY ERODING OVER WESTERN PA...BUT ALSO
INDICATES A TONGUE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS
OF CAPES COOKING UP INTO THE 1200-2000J RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA
AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIX OUT
AND BURN OFF. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE SLOWEST FOR A CHANGE GIVEN
THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECT ALL AIRPORTS
TO BECOME VFR BETWEEN 15-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS VERY
LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL
BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD LOWER CIGS/VISBYS RE-DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.

THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.

FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 221335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
RANGE EXTENDED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E
PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA AND NE MD THIS MORNING
OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE
SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE
LESS URBAN TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT
RANGE EXTENDED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE CLOUD DECK HAS
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR FROM THE WEST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 FROM THE LEHIGH
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E
PA AND NW NJ. ANY SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT
NIGHT AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
UPPER LOW AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA AND NE MD THIS MORNING
OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE
SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE
LESS URBAN TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE
ATLC WATERS AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WITH A FEW AFTN GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG LOOKS TO MIX OUT/BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN
THE TREND IN RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IT SEEMS TO ONLY REALLY RESIDE
IN THE DEEPER/WIDER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. THIS
WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS START TO FORM.

WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP
A LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING
EVEN WITH THE WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EVEN
WITH POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS
SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT JULY SUN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG LOOKS TO MIX OUT/BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN
THE TREND IN RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IT SEEMS TO ONLY REALLY RESIDE
IN THE DEEPER/WIDER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. THIS
WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS START TO FORM.

WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP
A LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING
EVEN WITH THE WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EVEN
WITH POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS
SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT JULY SUN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG LOOKS TO MIX OUT/BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN
THE TREND IN RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IT SEEMS TO ONLY REALLY RESIDE
IN THE DEEPER/WIDER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. THIS
WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS START TO FORM.

WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP
A LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING
EVEN WITH THE WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EVEN
WITH POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS
SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT JULY SUN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221240
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG LOOKS TO MIX OUT/BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN
THE TREND IN RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IT SEEMS TO ONLY REALLY RESIDE
IN THE DEEPER/WIDER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. THIS
WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS START TO FORM.

WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP
A LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING
EVEN WITH THE WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EVEN
WITH POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS
SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT JULY SUN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 221134
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
734 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/12Z...MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS VERY LOW PCPN
PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND LLVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD POP-UP SHRA/TSTM. NO
MENTION IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VISBYS DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221134
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
734 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/12Z...MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS VERY LOW PCPN
PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND LLVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD POP-UP SHRA/TSTM. NO
MENTION IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/PCPN CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD FADE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCD
LOWER CIGS/VISBYS DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT- BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT- BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT- BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT- BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...CURRENTLY AT 10Z PATCHY CLOUDINESS POCONOS MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND THE BIGGER N-S BAND FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC EDGING
EAST WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS JUST W OF KPHL TO THRU CHESTER COUNTY.

ALL THIS WITH SOME PATCHY THIN FOG.

AFTER 12Z...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SPARSE ON THE SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AND SO
THEY SHOULDNT MAKE MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA - NE MD AND FAR N DE
TODAY THAN CURRENTLY FCST?

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E PA AND NW NJ. ANY
SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BELOW 5000 FT JUST W OF PHL SHOULD STAY
WEST OF PHL. LARGER N-S BAND OF LOWER CIGS CENTRAL PA TO DCA EDGING
EAST SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN KPHL OR BE A FACTOR IN KPHL FCST TODAY.
PATCHY THIN FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD
AND DE THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 630A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...CURRENTLY AT 10Z PATCHY CLOUDINESS POCONOS MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND THE BIGGER N-S BAND FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC EDGING
EAST WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS JUST W OF KPHL TO THRU CHESTER COUNTY.

ALL THIS WITH SOME PATCHY THIN FOG.

AFTER 12Z...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SPARSE ON THE SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AND SO
THEY SHOULDNT MAKE MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA - NE MD AND FAR N DE
TODAY THAN CURRENTLY FCST?

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E PA AND NW NJ. ANY
SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BELOW 5000 FT JUST W OF PHL SHOULD STAY
WEST OF PHL. LARGER N-S BAND OF LOWER CIGS CENTRAL PA TO DCA EDGING
EAST SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN KPHL OR BE A FACTOR IN KPHL FCST TODAY.
PATCHY THIN FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD
AND DE THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 630A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 221011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/09Z UPDATE...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE EXPANDED AS EXPECTED EVEN
LOWERING FLGT CATS TO VLIFT AT BFD...IFR AT AOO AND LIFR FOR A
TIME AT IPT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

22/06Z...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN
THE LOW- MID 60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING ACRS CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST
NGTS OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING
WITH VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/09Z UPDATE...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE EXPANDED AS EXPECTED EVEN
LOWERING FLGT CATS TO VLIFT AT BFD...IFR AT AOO AND LIFR FOR A
TIME AT IPT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

22/06Z...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN
THE LOW- MID 60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING ACRS CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST
NGTS OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING
WITH VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/09Z UPDATE...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE EXPANDED AS EXPECTED EVEN
LOWERING FLGT CATS TO VLIFT AT BFD...IFR AT AOO AND LIFR FOR A
TIME AT IPT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

22/06Z...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN
THE LOW- MID 60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING ACRS CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST
NGTS OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING
WITH VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221011
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
611 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
22/09Z UPDATE...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE EXPANDED AS EXPECTED EVEN
LOWERING FLGT CATS TO VLIFT AT BFD...IFR AT AOO AND LIFR FOR A
TIME AT IPT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FCST STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THRU MID-LATE MORNING.

22/06Z...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN
THE LOW- MID 60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXPANSION OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING ACRS CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST
NGTS OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING
WITH VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RADIATE
TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG I 80 NWD ERLY THIS MRNG...OTRW NO CHGS FOR
THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA.
UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON
RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS
FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RADIATE
TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 220911
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR KPHL /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
TO ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WERE A FEW
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN EARLY MORNING LOW.

A DISTINCT...AND NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER /AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ CREATED
A RATHER EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN A BKN-OVC
LAYER THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.

AFTER THE EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY HIGH CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS /EXCEEDING 9C AT 700 MB/ OVR
NW PA MAY COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING/LLVL...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CFRONT...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST NGTS
OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING WITH
VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 220843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD WAS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KILG. OTRW PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KILG.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA NE MD AND FAR N DE TODAY
THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 1500-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG KILG
WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE BY 12Z
AND POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 2000 FT VCNTY KPHL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z. OTRW
VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD AND DE
THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG
THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG  442A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 442A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD WAS BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KILG. OTRW PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KILG.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA NE MD AND FAR N DE TODAY
THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 1500-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG KILG
WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE BY 12Z
AND POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 2000 FT VCNTY KPHL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z. OTRW
VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD AND DE
THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG
THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG  442A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 442A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 220722
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER SERN PENN /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
TODAY. 06Z TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WERE A FEW DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A MID-SUMMER NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP TO JUST ANOTHER 2
OR 3 DEG F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SEVERAL AREAS OF OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU WERE NOTED DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...NEARLY CALM AIR AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKY WILL
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AFTER EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST NGTS
OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING WITH
VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 220722
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER SERN PENN /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
TODAY. 06Z TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WERE A FEW DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A MID-SUMMER NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP TO JUST ANOTHER 2
OR 3 DEG F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SEVERAL AREAS OF OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU WERE NOTED DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...NEARLY CALM AIR AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKY WILL
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AFTER EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST NGTS
OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING WITH
VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 220722
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER SERN PENN /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
TODAY. 06Z TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WERE A FEW DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A MID-SUMMER NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP TO JUST ANOTHER 2
OR 3 DEG F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SEVERAL AREAS OF OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU WERE NOTED DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...NEARLY CALM AIR AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKY WILL
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AFTER EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST NGTS
OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING WITH
VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 220722
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER SERN PENN /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
TODAY. 06Z TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WERE A FEW DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A MID-SUMMER NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP TO JUST ANOTHER 2
OR 3 DEG F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SEVERAL AREAS OF OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU WERE NOTED DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...NEARLY CALM AIR AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKY WILL
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AFTER EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF RATHER MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING ACRS
CNTRL PA AIRSPACE. WHILE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...KEPT ALL TERMINALS AOA MVFR USING A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE AND LAST NGTS
OBS. EXPECT VISBYS TO IMPROVE FASTER THAN CIGS THIS MORNING WITH
VFR LKLY BY 17-18Z.

WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS
VERY LOW PCPN PROBS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..THERE WILL LKLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS ACTING AS TRIGGER. NO MENTION OF
PCPN IN TAFS AS POINT PROBS/CVRG WILL BE VERY LOW/SPARSE. DIURNAL
CU SHOULD FACE AFTER DARK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS LKLY ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
THU...SCT TSTM IMPACTS PSBL SERN AIRFIELDS AS COLD FRONT SLOWS AS
IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLC COAST.
FRI-SAT...PATCHY A.M. FOG PSBL. OTHRWISE NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220658
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LLVL MOISTURE POOLING E OF MGW WL BRING PTCHY STRATUS THIS MRNG...
OTRW EXP SCT DIURNAL CU TO DVLP TDA. UPR LVL RIDGING...COMBINED
WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON RECENT RAOBS AN NR TERM MDL
PROGS...WL RESULT DRY WEA TDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE WHERE
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WL BRING SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV
E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90 IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED
SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT
AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH
COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RADIATE
TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER SERN PENN /WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
ITS NW/ WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
TODAY. 06Z TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WERE A FEW DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A MID-SUMMER NIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THELOWER TO MID 60S WILL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP TO JUST ANOTHER 2
OR 3 DEG F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SEVERAL AREAS OF OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU WERE NOTED DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE. THE
NARROW T/TD SPREAD...NEARLY CALM AIR AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKY WILL
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AFTER EARLY TO MID MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MIXES
OUT...TODAY WILL FEATURE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GRT LKS.

HIGHS MONDAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR MICHIGAN AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES THIS
AFTN...HELPING TO DEVELOP JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE AFTN. THE BEST CHC FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SIMILAR /AND PERHAPS EVEN MUGGIER/ CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR KEEPING
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8F ABOVE NORMAL.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /AVERAGING 9C AT 700 MB OVER CENTRAL
PENN/ WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CREATE SEVERAL
BANDS OF DEEP UVVEL...HELPING TO BREAK THIS CAP AND FIRE OFF ONE
OR MORE BKN LINES OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSRA.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THEIR DAY 2 /SEE TEXT/ OUTLOOK. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED HIGH CAPE AND WEAK-MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT THE PRIMARY STORM TYPE WILL BE PULSE AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SVR HAIL AND WET
MICROBURSTS /WITH A FEW MIN-BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE AS WELL/ WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING.

THANKS TO A WARMING...WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFRONT...
HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AND LOWER
90S IN THE GREATER YORK/HARRISBURG AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST AREAS CLEAR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.

03Z TAFS ADJUSTED SOME.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 220622
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
222 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 221
SHORT TERM...DRAG 221
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 221
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 221






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220622
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
222 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT WIND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND ITS JUST
ANOTHER WONDERFUL NIGHT IN OUR AREA...A FAR CRY FROM THE RATHER
WARM SUMMER NIGHTS OF RECENT SUMMERS. CLOUDINESS FROM CENTRAL PA
TO MD SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT FROM KRDG TO KESN BY DAWN...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. OTRW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
BUT FAIRLY DRY AT THE SFC SEEMS TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

TODAY...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXCEPT BECOMING
M/S KRDG TO KESN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
THE AFTN WIND DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW
ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A TAD MILDER THAN THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND POSSIBLE SOME ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS FROM
THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT VCNTY KRDG WITH SCT
CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLY SLIPPING EAST TO KABE/KPHL/KILG/ BY
12Z. OTRW VFR WITH A SMALL CHC OF PATCHY IFR FOG VCNTY KMIV. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS
AFTN AND IN DE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 221
SHORT TERM...DRAG 221
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 221
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 221







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220410
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE POOLING E OF MGW WL CONT OVRNGT WITH PTCHY STRATOCU.
ELSW GENLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPD AS UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO BLD. THE
RIDGE...COMBINED WITH CAPPING WRM AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON EVE RAOBS
AN NR TERM MDL PROGS...WL RESULT IN ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR TERRAIN
ENHANCED AFTN CNVCTN ACRS MD/WV E OF MGW. TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEG ABV
AVG...WITH HIGHS APRCHG 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 220330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT
01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM
WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH
VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S
OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR
MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING
JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD
BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST AREAS CLEAR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.

03Z TAFS ADJUSTED SOME.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT
01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM
WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH
VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S
OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR
MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING
JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD
BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST AREAS CLEAR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.

03Z TAFS ADJUSTED SOME.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 220146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
946 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT
01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM
WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH
VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S
OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR
MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING
JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD
BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220146
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
946 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT
01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM
WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH
VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S
OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR
MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH THE L80S.

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING
JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD
BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 220124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. IN FACT, HAVE
ALREADY SEEN DEWPOINTS CLIMB AT KILG AND KPHL OVER THE COURSE OF
AN HOUR OR TWO WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE IN THE 60S, WITH THE HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LOWEST IN THE POCONOS AND
NEAR THE NJ SHORE. THUS, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR
MORE FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR (THINKING THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND
WILL HELP TO KEEP MINS WELL ABOVE DEW POINTS) AND ALONG THE NJ
SHORE (NOT ONLY DO THEY HAVE SOME OF THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS NOW, BUT
THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WOULD BE OFF SHORE, AND
CLIMATOLGICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. AFTER 06Z, THREAT FOR BR AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KABE TO KPHL. COULD SEE LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN BR AND LOW
STRATUS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE IMPACTS OF ANY BR AND STRATUS TO BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VRB AFTER SUNSET.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A COUPLE SHRA LEFT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MOST OF THE
CWA IS CLEARING OUT NICELY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD DECK FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HAVE DRY POPS BY 03Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR THOSE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LAMP RUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A COUPLE SHRA LEFT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MOST OF THE
CWA IS CLEARING OUT NICELY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD DECK FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HAVE DRY POPS BY 03Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR THOSE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LAMP RUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A COUPLE SHRA LEFT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MOST OF THE
CWA IS CLEARING OUT NICELY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD DECK FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HAVE DRY POPS BY 03Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR THOSE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LAMP RUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A COUPLE SHRA LEFT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MOST OF THE
CWA IS CLEARING OUT NICELY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH
IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD DECK FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HAVE DRY POPS BY 03Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR THOSE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LAMP RUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE - NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED. SHRA ARE MOSTLY TIED TO
RIDGES...THE ONLY REASONABLE SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY. GRIDS HANDLED
THIS WELL OVERALL. DID REMOVE THUNDER...AS TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO IC/CC/CG STRIKES WHATSOEVER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP THE REGION
CAPPED AROUND 10KFT EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ALOFT. THUS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH CARRYING LOW CHANCE
POPS...GENERALLY ESE OF PIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW 60`S
WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MANY OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ARE WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND ARE NEARLY STATIONARY, THUS NO THREAT
TO THE REGION. WITH THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY CLOSING AS WE APPROACH SUNSET, HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. AFTER 06Z, THREAT FOR BR AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KABE TO KPHL. COULD SEE LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN BR AND LOW
STRATUS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE IMPACTS OF ANY BR AND STRATUS TO BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VRB AFTER SUNSET.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MANY OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ARE WELL TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND ARE NEARLY STATIONARY, THUS NO THREAT
TO THE REGION. WITH THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY CLOSING AS WE APPROACH SUNSET, HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. AFTER 06Z, THREAT FOR BR AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KABE TO KPHL. COULD SEE LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN BR AND LOW
STRATUS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING LOWER THAN
MVFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE IMPACTS OF ANY BR AND STRATUS TO BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VRB AFTER SUNSET.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 212308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
708 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID
LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A
DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 212308
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
708 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID
LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A
DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE - NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED. SHRA ARE MOSTLY TIED TO
RIDGES...THE ONLY REASONABLE SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY. GRIDS HANDLED
THIS WELL OVERALL. DID REMOVE THUNDER...AS TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO IC/CC/CG STRIKES WHATSOEVER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP THE REGION
CAPPED AROUND 10KFT EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ALOFT. THUS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH CARRYING LOW CHANCE
POPS...GENERALLY ESE OF PIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW 60`S
WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6PM UPDATE - NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED. SHRA ARE MOSTLY TIED TO
RIDGES...THE ONLY REASONABLE SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY. GRIDS HANDLED
THIS WELL OVERALL. DID REMOVE THUNDER...AS TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO IC/CC/CG STRIKES WHATSOEVER ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP THE REGION
CAPPED AROUND 10KFT EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ALOFT. THUS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH CARRYING LOW CHANCE
POPS...GENERALLY ESE OF PIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW 60`S
WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 212157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID
LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A
DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

21Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 212157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID
LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A
DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS NEAR BFD AND JST LATE THIS AFT.

21Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN
TERMINALS...BUT THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 212121
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
521 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE INSTABILITY
IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID LVL CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 212121
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
521 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS OF
21Z...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THIS EVENING...AS
LG SCALE FORCING VERY WEAK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. OTHERWISE...STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS WHERE INSTABILITY
IS RATHER MODEST. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...PERSISTENT MID LVL CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION RISK AND RESULT IN A DRY EVENING.

SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND A BIT ON THE
MUGGY SIDE. A NEARLY CALM WIND AND DIMINISHING CU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO LATE AFTN DWPTS...PROMOTING AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THAT ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
LATEST SREF PROBS SHOW MAINLY THE POCONOS AND OUR WESTERN ZONES
SEEING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH NOT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED OR MUCAPE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 650MB, BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR SO DID
NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVING FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH THE STRATOCU DECK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT...ADDED MORE PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - LATE EVENING...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SEABREEZE FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH ACY AND MIV BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO I-95.
STRATOCU BASES AROUND 5-7KFT.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE AT OUR WESTERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS, THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE STRATUS PORTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THAT ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
LATEST SREF PROBS SHOW MAINLY THE POCONOS AND OUR WESTERN ZONES
SEEING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH NOT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED OR MUCAPE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 650MB, BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR SO DID
NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVING FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH THE STRATOCU DECK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT...ADDED MORE PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - LATE EVENING...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SEABREEZE FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH ACY AND MIV BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO I-95.
STRATOCU BASES AROUND 5-7KFT.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE AT OUR WESTERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS, THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE STRATUS PORTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THAT ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
LATEST SREF PROBS SHOW MAINLY THE POCONOS AND OUR WESTERN ZONES
SEEING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH NOT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED OR MUCAPE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 650MB, BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR SO DID
NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVING FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH THE STRATOCU DECK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT...ADDED MORE PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - LATE EVENING...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SEABREEZE FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH ACY AND MIV BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO I-95.
STRATOCU BASES AROUND 5-7KFT.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE AT OUR WESTERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS, THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE STRATUS PORTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THAT ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
LATEST SREF PROBS SHOW MAINLY THE POCONOS AND OUR WESTERN ZONES
SEEING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH NOT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED OR MUCAPE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 650MB, BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR SO DID
NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVING FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH THE STRATOCU DECK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE...AT LEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CROSSOVER TONIGHT, LIKE THEY DID IN
PLACES THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR MORE FOG
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION LATE TONIGHT...ADDED MORE PATCHY
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN/LIFT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
A SELF DESTRUCTING SKY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAY SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FORMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS AGAIN PEGGING THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND TERRAIN WITH QPF BULLSEYES WHICH MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM TYPE OF DAY EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO
CLOSE TO 1500J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP.

TEMPERATURES, AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND A SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ITSELF. A STRAIGHT MET/MAVMOS BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE AROUND
18C ON WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THAT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE A BIT OF A CAP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE AROUND 2000
J/KG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING ON THE FRONT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE HANDLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - LATE EVENING...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SEABREEZE FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH ACY AND MIV BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO I-95.
STRATOCU BASES AROUND 5-7KFT.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. POCKETS OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE POSSIBLE AT OUR WESTERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS, THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE STRATUS PORTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. FOG AND STRATUS BURN/LIFT TO VFR. WINDS BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, NOT EXPECTING A SEABREEZE INFLUENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN
STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211940
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
340 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS. WHILE THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF
ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEP THE REGION
CAPPED AROUND 10KFT EACH AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ALOFT. THUS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH CARRYING LOW CHANCE
POPS...GENERALLY ESE OF PIT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE LOW 60`S
WITH DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING. SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP
A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED
TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH.

THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KCTP 211810
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211810
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211810
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211810
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SUBTLE SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ALOFT AS THE
WEAK TROF THAT PROVIDED THE PLEASANT AND DRY MID SUMMER WEATHER
FINALLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE NERN US. MESO ANAL SHOWS ML CAPES
TOPPING 1000J CREEPING INTO SWRN PA WITH VIZ DATA SUGGESTING THE
CU FIELD BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA.

I STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF JUST SOME ISOLATED TOWERS POPPING UP AS
THE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL PA IS KEPT RATHER MODEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR YET TO OVERCOME.

WITH DEWPOINTS EDGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE HUMIDITY IS
BECOMING NOTICEABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A TAD
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED...AND
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z...SO THE EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIR AND A
BIT ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPES FCST IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE WILL
BE BATTLING INCREASINGLY WARM MID LEVELS TRYING TO CREATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 20 POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...I AM STILL DEBATING DROPPING THAT ALREADY SMALL NUMBER
EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE WARMTH ALOFT PUTTING A
LID ON MOST ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL HAVE A REAL SUMMERY FEEL IN THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LAST HOLDOUTS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE MY WESTERN TERMINALS...BUT
THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS
IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211719
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 211443
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SXNS OF
THE FCST AREA. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING MOISTURE/HIGH
PWAT AIR TO HELP COOK UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR...RAP...AND SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN.
INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. SFC DWPTS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXPECT NVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID DAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS.

PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211443
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SXNS OF
THE FCST AREA. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING MOISTURE/HIGH
PWAT AIR TO HELP COOK UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR...RAP...AND SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN.
INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. SFC DWPTS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXPECT NVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID DAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS.

PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211443
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SXNS OF
THE FCST AREA. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING MOISTURE/HIGH
PWAT AIR TO HELP COOK UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR...RAP...AND SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN.
INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. SFC DWPTS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXPECT NVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID DAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS.

PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 211443
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SXNS OF
THE FCST AREA. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL FEED OFF INCREASING MOISTURE/HIGH
PWAT AIR TO HELP COOK UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HRRR...RAP...AND SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN.
INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. SFC DWPTS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

EXPECT NVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID DAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS.

PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER OUR REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIFT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRIDAY THEN MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH THICKER STRATOCU ADVECTED IN FROM THE
WEST. ACARS AND LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKING BY NOON TODAY TO ALLOW A LIFTING OF THE STRATUS GIVING
WAY TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCU DECK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD CLIP OUR WESTERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING SO WE RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPANDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS OUT WEST. A FAIR WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CU/AC WILL CROSS
THE ARE AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL NOT TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING THE E OR
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH STILL OFF TO THE EAST. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB: EXPANSIVE BROAD WARM RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE SPLIT BY EAST COAST TROUGHING LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
LATE SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH SO FAR HAS AVERAGED ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL EXCEPT KACY AREA WHICH HAS AVERAGED A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAYS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
STILL 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRI-SUN.

AS YOU MAY BE AWARE...THIS SUMMER IS NOT LIKE THE BOILERS OF 2010
(#2) AND 2013 (#3). STILL DESPITE THE RELATIVELY NUMBER OF NICE
DAYS...THE AVG TEMP FROM JUNE 1-JUL 20 IS TIED FOR THE 14TH
WARMEST ON RECORD HERE AT KPHL.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0543Z/21 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 00Z/21 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT
18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS THEN HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SPOTS MAY HIT 90 INCLUDING KPHL BUT AT THIS TIME SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
STABLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON?

TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND THICK FOG MAY FORM LATE?
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 18C. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A 100F HEAT INDEX POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NJ AND THE
DELMARVA. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP
NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SEND A BAND OF SCT STRONG
TSTMS INTO E PA AND NJ. KI 34 TT 49 SWI -2. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
500MB WINDS LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH SVR BUT IF THE TIMING IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO UTILIZE THE 2000J ML CAPE...THEN ISO SVR COULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF I-78.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSPECT THE
STATISTICAL PROBABILITIES FOR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
SHIFT TO THE PHL AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DELMARVA FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH. IT MAY EVEN
TOUCH 90 IN PHL ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON FRIDAY SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY....THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE EMPHATIC ABOUT CONSIDERABLE
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY IN AT LEAST ITS PAST TWO
CYCLES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU AT
TIMES. A ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FAR N/W...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...AGAIN MOSTLY ERLY/SERLY
EARLY THEN SRLY LATE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
VICINITY KRDG AND KABE NORTHWESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE I-78
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INCLUSIVE OF KRDG AND KABE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STRATUS AND FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY...MOSTLY UNDER 10
KTS...THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 T ACROSS
DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER OUR REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND DRIFT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRIDAY THEN MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH THICKER STRATOCU ADVECTED IN FROM THE
WEST. ACARS AND LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKING BY NOON TODAY TO ALLOW A LIFTING OF THE STRATUS GIVING
WAY TO A SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCU DECK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD CLIP OUR WESTERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING SO WE RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPANDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS OUT WEST. A FAIR WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CU/AC WILL CROSS
THE ARE AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL NOT TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING THE E OR
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH STILL OFF TO THE EAST. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB: EXPANSIVE BROAD WARM RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE SPLIT BY EAST COAST TROUGHING LATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
LATE SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH SO FAR HAS AVERAGED ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL EXCEPT KACY AREA WHICH HAS AVERAGED A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAYS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
STILL 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRI-SUN.

AS YOU MAY BE AWARE...THIS SUMMER IS NOT LIKE THE BOILERS OF 2010
(#2) AND 2013 (#3). STILL DESPITE THE RELATIVELY NUMBER OF NICE
DAYS...THE AVG TEMP FROM JUNE 1-JUL 20 IS TIED FOR THE 14TH
WARMEST ON RECORD HERE AT KPHL.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0543Z/21 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 00Z/21 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT
18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS THEN HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SPOTS MAY HIT 90 INCLUDING KPHL BUT AT THIS TIME SIDED WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
STABLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON?

TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND THICK FOG MAY FORM LATE?
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 18C. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A 100F HEAT INDEX POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NJ AND THE
DELMARVA. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP
NORTH AND IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A BIT OF A CAP MAY
INITIALLY PREVENT THE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SEND A BAND OF SCT STRONG
TSTMS INTO E PA AND NJ. KI 34 TT 49 SWI -2. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
500MB WINDS LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH SVR BUT IF THE TIMING IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO UTILIZE THE 2000J ML CAPE...THEN ISO SVR COULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF I-78.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSPECT THE
STATISTICAL PROBABILITIES FOR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
SHIFT TO THE PHL AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DELMARVA FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH. IT MAY EVEN
TOUCH 90 IN PHL ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON FRIDAY SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY....THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE EMPHATIC ABOUT CONSIDERABLE
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY IN AT LEAST ITS PAST TWO
CYCLES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU AT
TIMES. A ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FAR N/W...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...AGAIN MOSTLY ERLY/SERLY
EARLY THEN SRLY LATE. TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
VICINITY KRDG AND KABE NORTHWESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE.
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE I-78
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INCLUSIVE OF KRDG AND KABE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STRATUS AND FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY...MOSTLY UNDER 10
KTS...THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 T ACROSS
DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM AS OF THIS UPDATE. MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DIURNAL TRENDS AND UPPED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE RIDGES BASED ON THE LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PTCHY CLDS WL CONT THIS MRNG UNDER A WKNG SHRTWV. ADDNL DIURNAL CU
IS EXPD TO DVLP TDA...THOUGH ANY SHWR/TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO TERRAIN ENHANCED ACTIVITY E-SE OF PIT. RECENT RAOB PLOTS AND NR
TERM RAP/NAM MDL PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW WRM MD LVL AIR TDA
RESULTING IN CAPPING...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE CNVCTN ELSW. HIGHS
SHOULD BE JUST ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM AS OF THIS UPDATE. MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DIURNAL TRENDS AND UPPED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY
ALONG THE RIDGES BASED ON THE LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PTCHY CLDS WL CONT THIS MRNG UNDER A WKNG SHRTWV. ADDNL DIURNAL CU
IS EXPD TO DVLP TDA...THOUGH ANY SHWR/TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO TERRAIN ENHANCED ACTIVITY E-SE OF PIT. RECENT RAOB PLOTS AND NR
TERM RAP/NAM MDL PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW WRM MD LVL AIR TDA
RESULTING IN CAPPING...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE CNVCTN ELSW. HIGHS
SHOULD BE JUST ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME
EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 211130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
730 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09-0930Z KCCX RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING
NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION AND NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR
IN SCENT PENN /IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/.

ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. POCKETS OF UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PWAT AIR
/1.5-1.75 INCHES/ TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
THE LAURELS /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS/ WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE
LATEST 06Z HRRR...07Z RAP...AND 03Z SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF
800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN. CONVECTIVE INSTAB ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT WIND WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH BASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS /AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH/ WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE
YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.
SFC DWPTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL
MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID MORNING..GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS. PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 211130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
730 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
09-0930Z KCCX RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING
NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION AND NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR
IN SCENT PENN /IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/.

ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL BE DIVING SE TWD THE BASE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROF...AND MOVING ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. POCKETS OF UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH PWAT AIR
/1.5-1.75 INCHES/ TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
THE LAURELS /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE NRN MTNS/ WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND A LIGHT SERLY LLVL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE FOUND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE
LATEST 06Z HRRR...07Z RAP...AND 03Z SREF WHERE ML CAPES OF
800-1200 J/KG ARE SHOWN. CONVECTIVE INSTAB ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NERN PA IS MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH /ESP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF KJST/.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT WIND WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH BASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS /AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH/ WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 00Z THROUGH 06Z GUIDANCE
YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...WHICH IS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER.
SFC DWPTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL
MORE MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT /TO SUNDAY NIGHT/ IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED /MAINLY EVENING/ SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U50S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND MID
60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ RVR VALLEY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND HUMID WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND APPROX 1.5 PWAT AIR HELPING TO FUEL ML CAPES OF 800-1400
J/KG ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UNIMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST OVER 5C/KM WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ISOLATED /AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AND WRN PENN/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND
INCREASED CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOW ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL
KEEP GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
ON WEAK RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MENTION OF ISO/SCT
TSTMS MON- EARLY WED /MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST/.

A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
WED...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN
THE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU MID MORNING..GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN. LIFT ASSOCD WITH LEFTOVER BROAD/WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE...COUPLED WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WDLY SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACRS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTN. CVRG AND PROBS OF
PCPN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN POINT BASED TAFS. PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT - MAINLY E OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...MAINLY VFR. SCT A.M MVFR FOG/CIGS. WDLY SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FROPA WILL LKLY BRING SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




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