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000
FXUS61 KCTP 311056
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311056
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311056
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311056
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311056
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311040
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11PM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311040
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM...
SUNSHINE ALREADY STRONG. NO REAL TWEAKS TO FCST NECESSARY.

PREV...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11PM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM
SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CU RULE INDICATING SCT DIURNAL CU. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM
SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH CU RULE INDICATING SCT DIURNAL CU. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310807
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11PM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310807
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK FRONTS WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
MOVING DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN NY STATE BUT COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNSET. THE NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MODERATE SPEED SHEAR.
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...MID-LEVEL CAP...WEAK INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
PRETTY MUCH BAY. MARGINAL RISK DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO THE CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY AFTER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
START TO THE DAY. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT FAIRLY EASY TO
RAMP THE TEMPS UP TO NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SUCCEED IS MAKING ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BUT
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STORMS RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR AND
A GOOD CAP WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO DIE OUT AS THEY GET TO PA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS 55-65F.

DEWPOINTS DON/T MOVE MUCH INTO SATURDAY...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS TO FORM ON SAT AFTN/EVENING - BUT AGAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG INVERSION IN THE SRN HALF. 8H TEMPS
A LITTLE COOLER ON SAT VS FRI...SO MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL - ESP IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11PM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. NAM SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SATURDAY WITH LOW POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATER
MONDAY STRONGER IMPULSE ARRIVES LATE DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GIVE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S LOWS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310438
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GIVE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S LOWS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE
INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310319
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1119 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

11PM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS CWA CURRENTLY...WITH A FEW
FLAT CU/SC ALONG IT IN SOUTHWEST PA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE OFF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH. STILL...THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP A SMALL PUFF OF WIND GOING WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A DEEP DECOUPLED LAYER TO FORM...AND THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOWARDS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STILL FORESEE LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS OVERALL TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS CWA CURRENTLY...WITH A FEW
FLAT CU/SC ALONG IT IN SOUTHWEST PA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE OFF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK TROUGH. STILL...THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH OF
A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP A SMALL PUFF OF WIND GOING WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A DEEP DECOUPLED LAYER TO FORM...AND THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOWARDS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STILL FORESEE LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS OVERALL TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PA...WITH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS BEING ENJOYED ACROSS NORTHWEST
HALF. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S SOUTHEAST.
UPSTREAM...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE ZIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GLAKS AND WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A MOISTURE CHALLENGED
TROF MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONSENSUS KEEPS THINGS DRY. STRONGER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF
HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW TERMINALS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302324
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH MVFR AND BR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ZZV..FKL..AND DUJ. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY IS ALL THAT`S LEFT IN MY CWA OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
CENTRAL PA...WHILE THEY ARE DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL BE QUIET REGIONWIDE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAK TO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE THE ONLY CHANGES FOR NOW. LOW
TEMPS MAY SINK A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST AS NOTED BELOW. WILL
BE EVALUATING THAT DURING THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 302122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OTHER THAN A FEW SPOTS SEEING VIZ DROP DOWN TO 3-5 MILES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301915
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301915
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301915
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301915
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER
AND YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO SATURDAY. DID UP MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO...AND EDGE POPS AND CLDS DOWN A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT. DID BACK OFF CLOUDS SOME AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MAIN THING GOING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HEATING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND
YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS



000
FXUS61 KCTP 301839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND
YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND
YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301839
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED JUST THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CWA. STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LANCASTER AND
YORK COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER REGION WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER BEHIND FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301838
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301838
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301838
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301838
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. IT HAS BEEN 5
DAYS SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN 60 AT MANY LOCATIONS. ALONG
THOSE LINES...IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL DAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TONIGHT...WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CONSIDERING SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR...IF WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE COULD DROP
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM THAT FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
VALUES FROM THURSDAY...WHICH ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING
PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301831
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301831
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY DEWPOINT
AND SKY GRIDS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT DIURNAL
CU THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BASED ON TRACKING RADAR MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NARROW LINE OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE CWA. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN
THE CWA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR. WESTERN
HALF OF CWA WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING TD AS DRYER AIR SLOWLY
FILTERS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS KMDT AND KLNS.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BASED ON TRACKING RADAR MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NARROW LINE OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE CWA. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN
THE CWA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR. WESTERN
HALF OF CWA WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING TD AS DRYER AIR SLOWLY
FILTERS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS KMDT AND KLNS.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA AT MID MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1330Z.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS OR VFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A
REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT
OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FRACTURED LINE/AXIS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE FRONTAL PCPN
BAND REACHING A LINE FROM WELLSBORO TO STATE COLLEGE TO BEDFORD
BY 13Z.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70+F
DEWPOINTS AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES OR
+2SD ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CWA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID...SFC
HEATING MAY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN/SERN PA
WITH A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK TIED TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND BULK SHEAR
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM NY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...A
FEW LOCALLY STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MRGL
RISK. SCT STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE SE ZONES AROUND
5PM/21Z WITH A PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90F ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F FOR A SHORT
DURATION. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS
A NOTICEABLY DRIER LOW PW AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FRACTURED LINE/AXIS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE FRONTAL PCPN
BAND REACHING A LINE FROM WELLSBORO TO STATE COLLEGE TO BEDFORD
BY 13Z.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70+F
DEWPOINTS AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES OR
+2SD ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CWA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID...SFC
HEATING MAY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN/SERN PA
WITH A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK TIED TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND BULK SHEAR
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM NY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...A
FEW LOCALLY STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MRGL
RISK. SCT STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE SE ZONES AROUND
5PM/21Z WITH A PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90F ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F FOR A SHORT
DURATION. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS
A NOTICEABLY DRIER LOW PW AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FRACTURED LINE/AXIS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE FRONTAL PCPN
BAND REACHING A LINE FROM WELLSBORO TO STATE COLLEGE TO BEDFORD
BY 13Z.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70+F
DEWPOINTS AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES OR
+2SD ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CWA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID...SFC
HEATING MAY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN/SERN PA
WITH A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK TIED TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND BULK SHEAR
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM NY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...A
FEW LOCALLY STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MRGL
RISK. SCT STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE SE ZONES AROUND
5PM/21Z WITH A PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90F ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F FOR A SHORT
DURATION. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS
A NOTICEABLY DRIER LOW PW AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FRACTURED LINE/AXIS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE FRONTAL PCPN
BAND REACHING A LINE FROM WELLSBORO TO STATE COLLEGE TO BEDFORD
BY 13Z.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70+F
DEWPOINTS AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES OR
+2SD ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CWA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID...SFC
HEATING MAY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN/SERN PA
WITH A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK TIED TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AND BULK SHEAR
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM NY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...A
FEW LOCALLY STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MRGL
RISK. SCT STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE SE ZONES AROUND
5PM/21Z WITH A PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90F ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100F FOR A SHORT
DURATION. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AS
A NOTICEABLY DRIER LOW PW AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
448 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
448 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300313
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 300313
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300313
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 300313
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT
IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY ADVECTING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS
IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 300210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS
ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND
GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS
IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300139
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR
TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCASIONALLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD
YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE
LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300139
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR
TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCASIONALLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD
YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE
LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
659 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCOMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291935
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS



000
FXUS61 KCTP 291857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291531
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 291500
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG NEARLY COMPLETELY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH A HAZY HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY
DECENT CHANCE THAT STATE COLLEGE WILL HAVE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN 2 YEARS. HRRR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON
SOUTHERN CWA RIDGES AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS
STILL WARM AND THIS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH / NW PA ZONES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE MAX DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THIS CHANGE WAS BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL DATA WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH / NW PA ZONES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE MAX DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THIS CHANGE WAS BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL DATA WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 291149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
749 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10AM AND GIVE WAY
TO HAZY SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES TO THE LOW 90S
FROM THE CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 90F IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
APPROACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW/ISOLATED
RISK OF A LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG A
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERING NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RES MODEL DATA TARGETS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ERN TN TO SW VA TO WV-MD PNHDLS/ WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST POPS LOCALLY
ARE AOB 20 PCT FROM SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.

THE BEST H85 MSTR FLUX ANOMS/LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WSWLY LLJ PRECEDING THE PROGRESSIVE SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...REACHING THE
PA/OH BORDER BY 12Z THU. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES ARE A TAD FASTER
WITH THE EWD MVMT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON D2/THURSDAY. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER ERN CANADA.
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER W/ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES.
WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/0-6KM SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...STILL THINK THAT THE SERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF
THE CWA STANDS AT BETTER THAN 50/50 ODDS TO SEE A SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. PREVIOUS SPC
D3 MRGL RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST NOW COVERING ONLY PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ VLY. DRIER LOW PWAT AIR QUICKLY SPREADS INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FROPA AND ENDS THE PCPN RISK IN THE FAR SE
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY EVE/00Z FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON
BAY VORTEX AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONVECTIVE PCPN
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY
1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT LNS AND UNV AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU



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