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000
FXUS61 KCTP 242019
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
419 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
AND DECREASING WIND. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRING OF DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 68-69F.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELPS TO SLACKEN
THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

THE WEST TO SW BREEZE WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH /IN THE 4-6
KTS RANGE/ TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN LATE. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES WILL
BRING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF
KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT.

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS
U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER
THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND
TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND
U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN
SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES
BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF
THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND
TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES
NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER
SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH
AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH
AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AT ALL CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND
NORTH OF KIPT.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 242002 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS.
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW
ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC
WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 242000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN THING
OF NOTE WILL BE THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS.
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW
ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC
WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNEDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241945
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
AND DECREASING WIND. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRING OF DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 68-69F.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELPS TO SLACKEN
THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

THE WEST TO SW BREEZE WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH /IN THE 4-6
KTS RANGE/ TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN LATE. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES WILL
BRING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF
KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT.

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS
U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER
THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND
TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND
U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN
SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES
BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF
THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND
TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES
NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER
SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH
AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH
AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AT ALL CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND
NORTH OF KIPT.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A NICE FALL DAY IS IN PROGRESS...PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT A LITTLE
WINDY WITH TEMPS MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH... LEAST WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW
NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A
DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS AFTERNOON...IN OTHER
WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL
MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY AT LEAST 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

I`VE RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2
DEGREES PER THE JUST RCD 2M TEMP FCST OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW
WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE CANCELLED FOR THE NNJ WATERS AT 310 PM
WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE
SRN PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 250
SHORT TERM...DRAG 250
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 250
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 250
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
207 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE FALL DAY IS IN PROGRESS...PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT A
LITTLE WINDY WITH TEMPS MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
30-35 MPH POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE 25 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE...
LEAST WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY
KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN
ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY
AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW
WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE CANCELLED AT 310 PM WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 206
SHORT TERM...DRAG 206
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 206
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 206
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241803
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER AND DECREASING WIND. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONG OF DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 68-69F.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELPS TO SLACKEN
THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

THE WEST TO SW BREEZE WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH /IN THE 4-6
KTS RANGE/ TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN LATE. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES WILL
BRING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF
KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT.

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AT ALL CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND
NORTH OF KIPT.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241536
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND COLD AIR STRATO CU
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING NOR`EASTER EAST OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...HAVE ERODED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF BKN
CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENN ABOVE A
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
/ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY/ WAS
AN AREA OF SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6-65F THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE
20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ERODED THE
PREVIOUS LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL
CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS.

AN AREA OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PENN LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 830AM. WILL WIND GUSTS 2-3
MORE KTS HERE IN AN INTERIM 11 AM UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...TODAY IS ALREADY A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE.

IT IS WINDY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND 25-30
MPH ELSEWHERE.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOKS LIKE VARIABLE MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH 20Z THEN CLEARING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.



TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME
CIRRUS AT TIMES HERE AND THERE. WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION...IE
NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
THOSE NUMBERS OF TODAY...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...PROBABLY AT
LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 CLEARS LATE IN THE DAY. NW
WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 500 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.   WEST WIND GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT... FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND GUST 20 KT. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 1046
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 1046
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND COLD AIR STRATO CU
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING NOR`EASTER EAST OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...HAVE ERODED OVER THE PST HOUR OR TWO.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS INDIANA WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN
AREA OF BKN CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENN
ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN /ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ
VALLEY/ WAS AN AREA OF SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6-65F THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE
20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ERODED THE
PREVIOUS LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL
CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS.

AN AREA OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PENN LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
827 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.

IT WILL STILL BE WINDY WITH THE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN THE POCONOS
NOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE BY NOON.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID
60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS PER THE MORE DEFINED 06Z/24 NAM TSECTIONS...2500-3500 T
NOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BETWEEN 4500-8000 FT
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THEN TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT THIS EVENING.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 30 KT KMPO-POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE
ELSEWHERE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 25 KT BY 16Z.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT DIMINISH.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 827
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 827







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE
W MTNS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF BLYR. BOTH KBFD AND KJST ARE UNDER IFR CIGS AT 11Z...BUT
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. HRRR/RAP
OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDS
BTWN 12Z-14Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM. KAOO WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-13Z.

THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 240929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE
W MTNS CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
OF BLYR. KJST HAS BEEN UNDER AN IFR CIG SINCE 05Z AND LATEST SATL
TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP OUTPUT STRONGLY SUGGEST KBFD WILL EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. KAOO WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS
BTWN 09Z-13Z.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 13Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS...AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240922
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.
IT WILL STILL BE WINDY BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST OF THE PRETTY WINDY DAYS AS THE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S,
WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
TRICKLED INTO KABE, KRDG AND KPHL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WE START
TO LOSE THE GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240708
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 240616
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE TRICKLED INTO KABE AND KRDG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 14Z AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KCTP 240607
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LOW STRATUS PILING UP ON THE LAURELS AND INTO WESTERN WARREN CO.
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST DO SEEM TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS
THROUGH SUNRISE. MINS MAY BE HELD UP IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. SUNLIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO
MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO
THE EAST. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NEARING AND COULD DIM THE SUN AFTER
THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240539
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADDRESS GROWING STATUS FROM INDIANA COUNTY TO
VENANGO AND NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TO KMGW. STILL THINK STRATUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH APPROACHING CIRRUS AND SURFACE RIDGE...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ABATE AS CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR ST ACRS NW PA IS EXPD TO AFFECT FKL AND DUJ OVRNGT
WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME
ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 240224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRACTURED WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT...AND IS NOW ALIGNED N-S FROM *EASTERN*
POTTER COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CENTRE AND EASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 240129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
929 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS
ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ALL TAF SITES HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ONLY AT FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS. BKN TO OVC CIGS REMAIN AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRFIELDS ON BACK SIDE OF CIRCULATION AROUND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/AVG RHS REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP GENERALLY VFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN SYSTEM TO THE EAST FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM PA AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
OCCASIONAL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT A FEW
LOCATIONS..ESP AT KBFD AND KJST...AS SFC TEMPS COOL.

ANY LOW CIGS IN THE AM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN REMAINING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KCTP 232344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS
ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232209
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 232016
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
416 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND OR
DELAWARE AT MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
OUR FORECAST AREA WAS OVER NEW JERSEY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE POCONO REGION.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS (WITH BASES AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET) ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND KABE, KTTN AND KACY. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S IS
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WERE DECREASING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL LET
THE GALE WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT UNTIL 600 PM ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
AT MID AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 231853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
253 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
253 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NWRLY WINDS AS THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT
SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST
OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE
SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231647
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN NWRLY AS THE UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END
TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER
IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST
IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS STILL WITH MVFR
CIGS. AS UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING AND MOST TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SUNSET.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231647
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN NWRLY AS THE UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END
TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER
IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST
IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS STILL WITH MVFR
CIGS. AS UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING AND MOST TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SUNSET.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 30 MPH.
THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND DELAWARE LATE THIS MORNING.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
INTO OUR REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
A BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. THE CHILLY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS DROPPING INTO THE POCONOS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, BUCKS COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND IT WILL DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY. ONE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS
WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS..

BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR
VISIIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THGE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT
WILL NOT HELP MUCH TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN IS STARTING TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
SPOTTY AND STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 230956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230956
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 230840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF -SHRA EARLY
THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD
END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY
FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING
FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN
PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS
WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT HELP MUCH
TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED AS A DRY SLOT, ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL
LOW, HAS ENTERED OUR AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 230645
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LAYER CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WRAP AROUND RAINS REACHING THE FAR ERN ZONES
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SULLIVAN AND COLUMBIA COS. LATEST HRRR
CONFINES RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE SUSQ
RIVER WITH FOCUS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO NERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING OVER WRN AREAS WITH CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING IN THE
EAST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER
THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS
SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD
END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY
FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING
FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN
PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS
WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230556
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED
OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND IT IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY SLOT HAS MADE ITS WAY
INLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONG TERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND
FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...TODAY AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY
FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD
BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED
FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 230541
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KCTP 230241
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BACK INTO ERN AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND A GUSTY NNW WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230227
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1027 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE ENE WOBBLE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE...AS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WESTWARD MOISTURE FLUX INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA PERSISTS TO THE WNW OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION. ANY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IS
LIGHT...BUT IT IS A FAIRLY RAW EVENING FROM RT 15 EAST TO THE NJ
BORDER...AS NNW WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH ON THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING LOW.

AS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS
OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHC
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION. STILL EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/POPS TO FADE AGAIN WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
SURGE APPROACHING THE POCONO PLATEAU TRACKS TOWARDS THE ENDLESS
AND MOUNTAINS AND WYOMING VALLEY EARLY THU MORNING...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS AWAY SLOWLY TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE. LIFTING CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222223
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
623 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW WILL WOBBLE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG AND MOIST LLVL NE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
SWINGING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PA ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS OVER MY FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHC EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION.

CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




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