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000
FXUS61 KCTP 251310
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AND EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING A BAND OF
-SHSN/FLURRIES. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER THIS
MORNING AND COULD EVEN BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE N TIER
COUNTIES TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...DEEPENING LYR OF MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE LAURELS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...FOCUS
REMAINS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
OHIO...WHICH PROMISES TO SPREAD A STEADIER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST PA TOWARD EVENING.

OVERCAST SKIES...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL CAA...SHOULD BALANCE THE
DIURNAL TREND AND RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE M20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BLEND OF MDL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM...MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW/WATER RATIOS BTWN 12/1 AND 15/1 USED BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE AND MDL CROSS SECTIONS OF OMEGA AND TEMP...WHICH SHOW
GREATEST UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING ARND -12C...BUT WARMER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER CLOUDS...IMPLYING RIMING AND A SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED
SLR.

WEAKENING SFC LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE E OF THE
DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH LG SCALE FORCING MAY NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN
BTWN SYSTEMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES BTWN LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR S QUEBEC WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL PA...LIKELY SUPPORTING OCNL LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF PA MON NITE AND TUESDAY. MDL DATA
SHOWING A FAIRLY TIGHT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...NEARLY ALL OF WHICH
PLACE OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FROM LANCASTER NORTH THRU
SCHUYLKILL CO ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION
BAND SNOW. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS SEEM TO IMPLY THE HEAVY SNOW WILL
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN COMPLEXITY OF
CRITERIA DIFFERENCES ACROSS OUR BORDERS...AND 40% CONFIDENCE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES OR MORE OVER LEBANON/LANCASTER/E YORK COUNTIES
WITH THE SECONDARY LOW...OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE THREE COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THE MORE LKLY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO BE ONCL LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ASSOC WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO DEEPENING UPPER TROF AXIS
OVR PA. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF COASTAL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW A POSSIBILITY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LIKELY.

FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW
THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. ECENS SHOWS A
DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS /ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
AND COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE/ PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE LIFR PERSISTING
WITH SNOW /POSS STILL MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
14Z/. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AIRFIELDS IN
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL MTNS
AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT
SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE THIS TIME. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-050-056-057-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ059-065-066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251259
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
CHANGED FZDZ TO -SHSN AT KJST.

FURTHER NORTH...RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF -SHSN/FLURRIES ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
THIS MORNING AND COULD EVEN BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE N
TIER COUNTIES TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...DEEPENING LYR OF MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE LAURELS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...FOCUS
REMAINS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
OHIO...WHICH PROMISES TO SPREAD A STEADIER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST PA TOWARD EVENING.

OVERCAST SKIES...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL CAA...SHOULD BALANCE THE
DIURNAL TREND AND RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE M20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BLEND OF MDL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM...MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW/WATER RATIOS BTWN 12/1 AND 15/1 USED BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE AND MDL CROSS SECTIONS OF OMEGA AND TEMP...WHICH SHOW
GREATEST UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING ARND -12C...BUT WARMER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER CLOUDS...IMPLYING RIMING AND A SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED
SLR.

WEAKENING SFC LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE E OF THE
DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH LG SCALE FORCING MAY NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN
BTWN SYSTEMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES BTWN LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR S QUEBEC WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL PA...LIKELY SUPPORTING OCNL LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF PA MON NITE AND TUESDAY. MDL DATA
SHOWING A FAIRLY TIGHT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...NEARLY ALL OF WHICH
PLACE OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FROM LANCASTER NORTH THRU
SCHUYLKILL CO ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION
BAND SNOW. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS SEEM TO IMPLY THE HEAVY SNOW WILL
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HVY SNOW ACROSS THE E COUNTIES IN THE HWO.

THE MORE LKLY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO BE ONCL LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOC
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO DEEPENING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR PA.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF COASTAL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW A POSSIBILITY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LIKELY.

FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW
THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. ECENS SHOWS A
DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS /ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
AND COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE/ PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE LIFR PERSISTING
WITH SNOW /POSS STILL MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH
14Z/. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AIRFIELDS IN
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL MTNS
AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH...BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT
SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE THIS TIME. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-050-056-057-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ059-065-066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
702 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
CHANGED FZDZ TO -SHSN AT KJST.

FURTHER NORTH...RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF -SHSN/FLURRIES ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
THIS MORNING AND COULD EVEN BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE N
TIER COUNTIES TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...DEEPENING LYR OF MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE LAURELS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...FOCUS
REMAINS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
OHIO...WHICH PROMISES TO SPREAD A STEADIER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST PA TOWARD EVENING.

OVERCAST SKIES...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL CAA...SHOULD BALANCE THE
DIURNAL TREND AND RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE M20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BLEND OF MDL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM...MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW/WATER RATIOS BTWN 12/1 AND 15/1 USED BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE AND MDL CROSS SECTIONS OF OMEGA AND TEMP...WHICH SHOW
GREATEST UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING ARND -12C...BUT WARMER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER CLOUDS...IMPLYING RIMING AND A SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED
SLR.

WEAKENING SFC LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE E OF THE
DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH LG SCALE FORCING MAY NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN
BTWN SYSTEMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES BTWN LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR S QUEBEC WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL PA...LIKELY SUPPORTING OCNL LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF PA MON NITE AND TUESDAY. MDL DATA
SHOWING A FAIRLY TIGHT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...NEARLY ALL OF WHICH
PLACE OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FROM LANCASTER NORTH THRU
SCHUYLKILL CO ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION
BAND SNOW. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS SEEM TO IMPLY THE HEAVY SNOW WILL
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HVY SNOW ACROSS THE E COUNTIES IN THE HWO.

THE MORE LKLY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO BE ONCL LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOC
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO DEEPENING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR PA.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF COASTAL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW A POSSIBILITY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LIKELY.

FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW
THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. ECENS SHOWS A
DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-050-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 251154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RUSHING SOUTHEAST DOWN TO NEAR ROUTE 80 AT
DAYBREAK AND WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE
DELMARVA WEST INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT
LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 654
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RUSHING SOUTHEAST DOWN TO NEAR ROUTE 80 AT
DAYBREAK AND WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE
DELMARVA WEST INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT
LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 654
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 251101
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10Z ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
CHANGED FZDZ TO -SHSN AT KJST.

FURTHER NORTH...RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF -SHSN/FLURRIES ASSOC WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATER
THIS MORNING AND COULD EVEN BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO THE N
TIER COUNTIES TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...DEEPENING LYR OF MOISTURE
ASCENDING THE LAURELS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...FOCUS
REMAINS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
OHIO...WHICH PROMISES TO SPREAD A STEADIER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST PA TOWARD EVENING.

OVERCAST SKIES...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL CAA...SHOULD BALANCE THE
DIURNAL TREND AND RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE M20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BLEND OF MDL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM...MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SNOW/WATER RATIOS BTWN 12/1 AND 15/1 USED BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE AND MDL CROSS SECTIONS OF OMEGA AND TEMP...WHICH SHOW
GREATEST UPWARD MOTION OCCURRING ARND -12C...BUT WARMER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER CLOUDS...IMPLYING RIMING AND A SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED
SLR.

WEAKENING SFC LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXPECTED
MONDAY...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE E OF THE
DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH LG SCALE FORCING MAY NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN
BTWN SYSTEMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES BTWN LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES OVR S QUEBEC WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL PA...LIKELY SUPPORTING OCNL LIGHT SNOW THRU THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW EAST OF PA MON NITE AND TUESDAY. MDL DATA
SHOWING A FAIRLY TIGHT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...NEARLY ALL OF WHICH
PLACE OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FROM LANCASTER NORTH THRU
SCHUYLKILL CO ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION
BAND SNOW. MDL 7H FGEN FIELDS SEEM TO IMPLY THE HEAVY SNOW WILL
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HVY SNOW ACROSS THE E COUNTIES IN THE HWO.

THE MORE LKLY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO BE ONCL LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOC
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO DEEPENING UPPER TROF AXIS OVR PA.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF COASTAL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW A POSSIBILITY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS LIKELY.

FAIR AND CHILLY WED EXPECTED WED...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
AREA. MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW
THURS/THU NIGHT WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF CLIPPERS. ECENS SHOWS A
DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...OFFERING NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-050-056-057-063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251044
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ERLY MRNG UPDT TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS/LAMP DATA. A WK
SHRTWV ACRS LAKE ERIE WL CONT TO BRING SOME LGT SNW/FLURRIES TO
THE RGN THIS MRNG.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SHRTWV MOVG OUT OF THE MID
WEST AND WRN GT LKS RGN. THIS SHRTWV WL ADVANCE ACRS OUR RGN LTR
TDAY SPREADING SNW ACRS THE RGN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHG TO RAIN NR
AND S OF THE SRN PA BORDER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE..CUTTING DOWN
ON SNW TOTALS.

MDLS CONT TO OPEN THE MID LVL WAVE AS IT ADVNS ACRS ERN OH INTO PA
AS THE TRANSITION TO A COASTAL LOW TAKES PLACE. MSTR AND OMEGA
FIELDS STILL INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE SNW WL LIKELY DVLP ACRS
AREAS FM ZZV TO PIT TO LBE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE THE
MID LVL WAVE OPENS LT TNGT. WITH MDL TRENDS SHOWING A SLGT NWD
PUSH TO THE PCPN...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEA ADVY FURTHER
NWD INTO NW PA.

FCST WAS BASED ON A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES...
COMBINED WITH SURROUNDING WFO AND WPC COORDINATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNW IS EXPD TO CONT THRU MON AND MON EVE AS THE SHRTWV CONTS ITS
TRACK ACRS THE AREA. ADVY LVL SNW TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPD FM
NR ZZV TO PIT TO LBE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMTS N OF I 80 AND
AREAS WELL S OF PIT.

BROAD UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE RGN TUE WITH
DCRG SNW SHWR CHCS. BLDG HIGH PRES WED SHOULD BRING DRY WEA.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW MVFR PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PORTS AND THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW BEGINNING MIDDAY
AND BECOMING IFR TO LOW IFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO
MIX IN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KMGW AND
POSSIBLY KZZV BEFORE TURNING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS 507 AM AFD UPDATE ADDED THE WATCH TO THE SLIVER OF COASTAL
ATLANTIC COUNTY OVERLOOKED IN THE 330 AM PACKAGE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 507A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS 507 AM AFD UPDATE ADDED THE WATCH TO THE SLIVER OF COASTAL
ATLANTIC COUNTY OVERLOOKED IN THE 330 AM PACKAGE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 507A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 250940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS LAKE ERIE WL CONT TO BRING SOME LGT SNW/FLURRIES
TO THE RGN THIS MRNG.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SHRTWV MOVG OUT OF THE MID
WEST AND WRN GT LKS RGN. THIS SHRTWV WL ADVANCE ACRS OUR RGN LTR
TDAY SPREADING SNW ACRS THE RGN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHG TO RAIN NR
AND S OF THE SRN PA BORDER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE..CUTTING DOWN
ON SNW TOTALS.

MDLS CONT TO OPEN THE MID LVL WAVE AS IT ADVNS ACRS ERN OH INTO PA
AS THE TRANSITION TO A COASTAL LOW TAKES PLACE. MSTR AND OMEGA
FIELDS STILL INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE SNW WL LIKELY DVLP ACRS
AREAS FM ZZV TO PIT TO LBE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE THE
MID LVL WAVE OPENS LT TNGT. WITH MDL TRENDS SHOWING A SLGT NWD
PUSH TO THE PCPN...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEA ADVY FURTHER
NWD INTO NW PA.

FCST WAS BASED ON A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES...
COMBINED WITH SURROUNDING WFO AND WPC COORDINATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNW IS EXPD TO CONT THRU MON AND MON EVE AS THE SHRTWV CONTS ITS
TRACK ACRS THE AREA. ADVY LVL SNW TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPD FM
NR ZZV TO PIT TO LBE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMTS N OF I 80 AND
AREAS WELL S OF PIT.

BROAD UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE RGN TUE WITH
DCRG SNW SHWR CHCS. BLDG HIGH PRES WED SHOULD BRING DRY WEA.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW MVFR PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PORTS AND THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW BEGINNING MIDDAY
AND BECOMING IFR TO LOW IFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO
MIX IN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KMGW AND
POSSIBLY KZZV BEFORE TURNING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS LAKE ERIE WL CONT TO BRING SOME LGT SNW/FLURRIES
TO THE RGN THIS MRNG.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SHRTWV MOVG OUT OF THE MID
WEST AND WRN GT LKS RGN. THIS SHRTWV WL ADVANCE ACRS OUR RGN LTR
TDAY SPREADING SNW ACRS THE RGN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHG TO RAIN NR
AND S OF THE SRN PA BORDER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE..CUTTING DOWN
ON SNW TOTALS.

MDLS CONT TO OPEN THE MID LVL WAVE AS IT ADVNS ACRS ERN OH INTO PA
AS THE TRANSITION TO A COASTAL LOW TAKES PLACE. MSTR AND OMEGA
FIELDS STILL INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE SNW WL LIKELY DVLP ACRS
AREAS FM ZZV TO PIT TO LBE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE THE
MID LVL WAVE OPENS LT TNGT. WITH MDL TRENDS SHOWING A SLGT NWD
PUSH TO THE PCPN...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEA ADVY FURTHER
NWD INTO NW PA.

FCST WAS BASED ON A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES...
COMBINED WITH SURROUNDING WFO AND WPC COORDINATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNW IS EXPD TO CONT THRU MON AND MON EVE AS THE SHRTWV CONTS ITS
TRACK ACRS THE AREA. ADVY LVL SNW TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPD FM
NR ZZV TO PIT TO LBE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMTS N OF I 80 AND
AREAS WELL S OF PIT.

BROAD UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE RGN TUE WITH
DCRG SNW SHWR CHCS. BLDG HIGH PRES WED SHOULD BRING DRY WEA.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW MVFR PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PORTS AND THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW BEGINNING MIDDAY
AND BECOMING IFR TO LOW IFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO
MIX IN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KMGW AND
POSSIBLY KZZV BEFORE TURNING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250735
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRZG DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ADVY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A CROSSING
SHRTWV ACRS THE ERN GT LKS WL KEEP SN CHCS ACRS THE AREA TNGT WITH
LTL ACCUM. NR STEADY TEMPS EXPD USING LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW MVFR PATCHES OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE PORTS AND THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
WILL PUSH INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW BEGINNING MIDDAY
AND BECOMING IFR TO LOW IFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN LOOKS TO
MIX IN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KMGW AND
POSSIBLY KZZV BEFORE TURNING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 250552
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND AN INCH PHL/ILG, MAYBE 2 INCHES
RDG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW
ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250552
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND AN INCH PHL/ILG, MAYBE 2 INCHES
RDG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW
ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 250544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRZG DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ADVY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A CROSSING
SHRTWV ACRS THE ERN GT LKS WL KEEP SN CHCS ACRS THE AREA TNGT WITH
LTL ACCUM. NR STEADY TEMPS EXPD USING LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRZG DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ADVY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A CROSSING
SHRTWV ACRS THE ERN GT LKS WL KEEP SN CHCS ACRS THE AREA TNGT WITH
LTL ACCUM. NR STEADY TEMPS EXPD USING LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRZG DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ADVY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A CROSSING
SHRTWV ACRS THE ERN GT LKS WL KEEP SN CHCS ACRS THE AREA TNGT WITH
LTL ACCUM. NR STEADY TEMPS EXPD USING LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FRZG DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ADVY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A CROSSING
SHRTWV ACRS THE ERN GT LKS WL KEEP SN CHCS ACRS THE AREA TNGT WITH
LTL ACCUM. NR STEADY TEMPS EXPD USING LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 250341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FZDZ TURNING TO PLAIN SNOW IN THE NW AS EXPECTED. HAVE CANX SOME
OF THE ADVY...AND ANTICIPATE THAT THE REST OF THE ADVY WILL DIE A
NATURAL DEATH AT 06Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY
AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT. SOME SHSN MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS - AHEAD OF THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW
WHICH WILL COME IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT
DROP MUCH THRU THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250320
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A CLEARLY DEFINED BACK EDGE IS
EVIDENT ON THE LOWEST SCANS OF TPIT AND KPIT RADARS.
UPSTREAM...OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...RADAR
ECHOES SAMPLED A LITTLE FURTHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SFC TROF THAT RUNS W TO E OVER LAKE
HURON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SNOW STREAM INTO THE NW ZONES BY
06Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY AS THE MORE POTENT LOW APPROACHES BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250320
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A CLEARLY DEFINED BACK EDGE IS
EVIDENT ON THE LOWEST SCANS OF TPIT AND KPIT RADARS.
UPSTREAM...OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...RADAR
ECHOES SAMPLED A LITTLE FURTHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SFC TROF THAT RUNS W TO E OVER LAKE
HURON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SNOW STREAM INTO THE NW ZONES BY
06Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY AS THE MORE POTENT LOW APPROACHES BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250041
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FZRA HAS BEEN FALLING AT KBFD FOR A WHILE. CONSIDERING THAT
ROUGHLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN TIER AND
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS...THE FZRA ADVY HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ON ROADS DUE TO RECENT TREATMENTS. BUT
SIDEWALKS AND BRIDGES/OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY.
AGAIN...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW MORE HOURS. FORCING/LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NY SHOULD WANE AS IT PUSHES STEADILY EASTWARD.
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO THE SE OF THE RIDGES SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POSS FZDZ IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
STILL AOB 5F. IPT/SEG/MDT/ETC. ARE VERY MUCH DRIER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SO AS THE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS HIGHER AND HELP TO EVAPORATE ANY DZ AS IT TRIES TO FALL
FROM SO HIGH.

530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250041
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FZRA HAS BEEN FALLING AT KBFD FOR A WHILE. CONSIDERING THAT
ROUGHLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN TIER AND
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS...THE FZRA ADVY HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ON ROADS DUE TO RECENT TREATMENTS. BUT
SIDEWALKS AND BRIDGES/OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY.
AGAIN...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW MORE HOURS. FORCING/LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NY SHOULD WANE AS IT PUSHES STEADILY EASTWARD.
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO THE SE OF THE RIDGES SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ICING THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POSS FZDZ IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
STILL AOB 5F. IPT/SEG/MDT/ETC. ARE VERY MUCH DRIER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SO AS THE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS HIGHER AND HELP TO EVAPORATE ANY DZ AS IT TRIES TO FALL
FROM SO HIGH.

530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS CONTINUE WITH THE
DOMINATING TYPE AS BR OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT
NEAR -10C. AS OF 7PM STARTED TO RECEIVE NUMEROUS REPORTS VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA AND BROADCAST MEDIA THAT THE FZDZ WAS EXPANDING ITS
COVERAGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE CWA THROUGH 06Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS CONTINUE WITH THE
DOMINATING TYPE AS BR OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT
NEAR -10C. AS OF 7PM STARTED TO RECEIVE NUMEROUS REPORTS VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA AND BROADCAST MEDIA THAT THE FZDZ WAS EXPANDING ITS
COVERAGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE CWA THROUGH 06Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 250023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242353
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
653 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS UPSTREAM WITH SOME
DOMINANCE BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING EITHER
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG...JUST OUTSIDE OF NW CWA
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS
TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT NEAR -10C. HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 1AM.
TAX

PREVIOUS BELOW...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     049-050.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242353
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
653 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS UPSTREAM WITH SOME
DOMINANCE BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING EITHER
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG...JUST OUTSIDE OF NW CWA
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS
TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT NEAR -10C. HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 1AM.
TAX

PREVIOUS BELOW...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME
AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IFR.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     049-050.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST.
THIS IS TAKING THE REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WITH IT. THEREFORE,
IT APPEARS THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE. THERE IS MORE CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION, HOWEVER THIS MAY MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THERE. SOME OF IT MAY
EXPAND INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MAYBE A
FEW FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SOME AND
THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT. HOWEVER, AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ANY UNTREATED WET
SURFACES WILL REFREEZE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING,
MAINLY AT KABE TO NEAR KRDG OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES/, THEN TURNING WESTERLY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 242326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST.
THIS IS TAKING THE REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WITH IT. THEREFORE,
IT APPEARS THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE. THERE IS MORE CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION, HOWEVER THIS MAY MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THERE. SOME OF IT MAY
EXPAND INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MAYBE A
FEW FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SOME AND
THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT. HOWEVER, AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ANY UNTREATED WET
SURFACES WILL REFREEZE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING,
MAINLY AT KABE TO NEAR KRDG OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES/, THEN TURNING WESTERLY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242308
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS UPSTREAM WITH SOME
DOMINANCE BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING EITHER
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG...JUST OUTSIDE OF NW CWA
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS
TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT NEAR -10C. HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 1AM.
TAX

PREVIOUS BELOW...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     049-050.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242308
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF
APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS UPSTREAM WITH SOME
DOMINANCE BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING EITHER
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG...JUST OUTSIDE OF NW CWA
PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS
TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT NEAR -10C. HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 1AM.
TAX

PREVIOUS BELOW...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     049-050.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 242240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242240
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...
MANY OBS OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW PA AND WRN
NY AS MOISTURE IS CARRIED IN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS PATCH OF FZDZ SHOULD NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS JUDGING BY RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH HAVE
THE COLUMN COOLING ENOUGH AT BFD TO MAKE SURE IT IS ALL SNOW. WILL
RUN A FZRA ADVY THRU 06Z TO COVER THIS HAZARD.

PREV...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242059
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242059
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT
TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.

ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED
UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE
WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242040
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW
MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT LATE DAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED EAST AND
OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WANING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PASSES EAST AND OFFSHORE. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOME
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN, DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

FOR LATER TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED, WITH A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW-POINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART, WE USED A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT WE DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOWPACK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALLOWING THE
REMAINING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT AS DRYING
IS ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, BUT MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES CAN BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES
AT TIMES.

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0000Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC AS
THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 242040
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW
MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT LATE DAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED EAST AND
OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WANING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PASSES EAST AND OFFSHORE. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOME
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN, DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

FOR LATER TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED, WITH A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW-POINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART, WE USED A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT WE DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOWPACK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALLOWING THE
REMAINING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT AS DRYING
IS ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, BUT MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES CAN BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES
AT TIMES.

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0000Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC AS
THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KCTP 242008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 242008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241901
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 241805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING
WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EXPIRE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
STILL OFF TO THE WEST, LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN
BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ALL SNOW AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT OUR
REMAINING TAF SITES. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN ABOUT
2200Z AND 0100Z.

WE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0100Z UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING
WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EXPIRE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
STILL OFF TO THE WEST, LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN
BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ALL SNOW AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT OUR
REMAINING TAF SITES. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN ABOUT
2200Z AND 0100Z.

WE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0100Z UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY SEE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LASTING 30 MINUTES OR
SO AS A WAVE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
     WINDS ALOFT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATE A BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 5KFT DEEP. WITH
THAT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO BETTER COMMUNICATE LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL
FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE
FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY
INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241716
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1216 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY FIZZLED...ALLOWING
EARLY CANCELLATION OF HEADLINES. 850 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ...WHERE TEMPS BRIEFLY ROSE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS ARE
STEADY OR FALLING FROM THERE NORTHWESTWARD NOW. FARTHER WEST...
A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241716
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1216 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY FIZZLED...ALLOWING
EARLY CANCELLATION OF HEADLINES. 850 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ...WHERE TEMPS BRIEFLY ROSE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS ARE
STEADY OR FALLING FROM THERE NORTHWESTWARD NOW. FARTHER WEST...
A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241716
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1216 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY FIZZLED...ALLOWING
EARLY CANCELLATION OF HEADLINES. 850 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ...WHERE TEMPS BRIEFLY ROSE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS ARE
STEADY OR FALLING FROM THERE NORTHWESTWARD NOW. FARTHER WEST...
A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241716
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1216 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY FIZZLED...ALLOWING
EARLY CANCELLATION OF HEADLINES. 850 MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
OFFSHORE...AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER
SUSQ...WHERE TEMPS BRIEFLY ROSE THROUGH THE MIDDLE 30S. TEMPS ARE
STEADY OR FALLING FROM THERE NORTHWESTWARD NOW. FARTHER WEST...
A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 241455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHL THROUGH 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS PASSED EAST AND OFFSHORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL, AT LEAST UNTIL THE ROADS ARE
COMPLETELY CLEARED. THE EXTENSION OF THIS WARNING ALSO MATCHES
SIMILAR HEADLINE PRODUCTS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. FARTHER SOUTH, WE HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR RAIN FOR
FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NJ, AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FLOW
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAP AND HRRR
DATA.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO
THE POINT WE LOSE OUR ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY MAKE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO
SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KCTP 241441
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
941 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT MID MORNING. THIS EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENDLESS MTNS OF NORTHEAST PA. ANOTHER
COATING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THIS AS IT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH MIDDAY.
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES OF WINTER HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR 18Z.

850 MB LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTH NJ AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING
IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...AND SHOULD CHANGE ANY EARLIER
MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS...AGAIN WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO NO CHANGES
THIS MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A
FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241441
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
941 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT MID MORNING. THIS EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENDLESS MTNS OF NORTHEAST PA. ANOTHER
COATING TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THIS AS IT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH MIDDAY.
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES OF WINTER HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR 18Z.

850 MB LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTH NJ AND COLDER AIR IS FILLING
IN BEHIND OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...AND SHOULD CHANGE ANY EARLIER
MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS...AGAIN WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO NO CHANGES
THIS MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A
FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING
-SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS RISE
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KCTP 241258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AT 09Z...AS LL
JET AND ASSOC STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THRU THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTN OVR AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

SFC OBS AT 09Z INDICATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS FROM KHGR NEWRD
THRU KMDT. MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PTYPES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL
WAVER BTWN SNOW/RAIN TODAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM FROM SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...BASED ON MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS. FURTHER NORTH...UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND MDL QPF
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW BTWN 5 AM AND NOON.
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EARLY...AS ROAD CONDS IMPROVE LATER THIS AM.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING
AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING -SHSN ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SOME LIGHTER FREEZING RAIN IN THE
LOWER SUSQ IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER. ONE LAST BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FOR A SHORT TIME AS IT SLIDES
EASTWARD...THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS
RISE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241258
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AT 09Z...AS LL
JET AND ASSOC STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THRU THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTN OVR AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

SFC OBS AT 09Z INDICATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS FROM KHGR NEWRD
THRU KMDT. MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PTYPES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL
WAVER BTWN SNOW/RAIN TODAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM FROM SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...BASED ON MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS. FURTHER NORTH...UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND MDL QPF
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW BTWN 5 AM AND NOON.
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EARLY...AS ROAD CONDS IMPROVE LATER THIS AM.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING
AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING -SHSN ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SOME LIGHTER FREEZING RAIN IN THE
LOWER SUSQ IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER. ONE LAST BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FOR A SHORT TIME AS IT SLIDES
EASTWARD...THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS CIGS
RISE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR. IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ROBUST WITH CIGS LIKELY
ONLY LIFTING TO MVFR AND MAYBE A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PICK UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...PUSHING WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WEST.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW
PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY
ACRS THE RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CIGS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR KHLG-KPIT BUT IFR
CIGS ACROSS OHIO WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IFR WILL
REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED. BY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MAINLY IFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO BRING IFR TO PORTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW
PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY
ACRS THE RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CIGS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR KHLG-KPIT BUT IFR
CIGS ACROSS OHIO WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IFR WILL
REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED. BY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MAINLY IFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO BRING IFR TO PORTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW
PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY
ACRS THE RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
546 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW
PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY
ACRS THE RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KCTP 241017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AT 09Z...AS LL
JET AND ASSOC STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THRU THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTN OVR AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

SFC OBS AT 09Z INDICATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS FROM KHGR NEWRD
THRU KMDT. MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PTYPES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL
WAVER BTWN SNOW/RAIN TODAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM FROM SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...BASED ON MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS. FURTHER NORTH...UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND MDL QPF
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW BTWN 5 AM AND NOON.
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EARLY...AS ROAD CONDS IMPROVE LATER THIS AM.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING
AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING -SHSN ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AT 09Z...AS LL
JET AND ASSOC STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THRU THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTN OVR AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

SFC OBS AT 09Z INDICATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS FROM KHGR NEWRD
THRU KMDT. MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PTYPES SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL
WAVER BTWN SNOW/RAIN TODAY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM FROM SOUTH OF HARRISBURG...BASED ON MARGINAL
BLYR TEMPS. FURTHER NORTH...UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND MDL QPF
SUPPORT PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW BTWN 5 AM AND NOON.
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EARLY...AS ROAD CONDS IMPROVE LATER THIS AM.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTN TO AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING
AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD EVENING...LIKELY SPREADING -SHSN ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TOWARDS DUSK.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY AFTN.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...UPSLOPING FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATOCU ALL DAY...HOLDING
TEMPS JUST BLW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POTENT
ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLEND OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. A BIT OF SUN APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID LVL
CLOUDINESS INDICATED BY MDLS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER. CONSALL MAX
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L20S NW MTNS...TO THE U30S S OF HARRISBURG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDL SPREAD DECREASING/CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/TRACK OF CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE RAMPED UP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND
EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC WEAKER CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH SOUTH
OF PA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING OCNL LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY. BLEND OF ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL QPF IS
POINTING TOWARD AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL ATTM ACROSS THE
LAUREL/SC MTNS SUN NITE/MON AM...WITH LIGHTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
LIKELY FROM SECOND CLIPPER MON NITE/TUE AM.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TUE NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH TIMING OF THIS NEXT CLIPPER...SO HAVE INCREASED CHC OF LGT SNOW
LATE THU/THU NIGHT.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FEATURES NO RESPITE FROM THE COLD WX...WITH
ECENS INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE UPGRADED OUR ADVISORIES NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...THEY GO THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, WE EXPECT THIS MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR A PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE I95-295
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD
KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM
BERKS COUNTY, INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH LITTLE MIXING. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE LESS QPF, SO THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS
WHERE MIXING OCCURS.

FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING AND STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THIS SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS.

HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS SHORT TERM SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
DELAY.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARD.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT
MAY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AT KMIV AND KACY
BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN
THE DAY, AND VFR DURING THE EVENING.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.MARINE...
THIS SHORT TERM MARINE SEGMENT UPDATES AT 425 AM. WE APOLOGIZE
FOR THE DELAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
     071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
     013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 409A
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 409A






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG...EXITING BY
THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW PRES DVLPS.
THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY ACRS THE
RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG...EXITING BY
THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW PRES DVLPS.
THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY ACRS THE
RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG...EXITING BY
THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW PRES DVLPS.
THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY ACRS THE
RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG...EXITING BY
THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW PRES DVLPS.
THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY ACRS THE
RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

07/10




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEIGHT OF THE STORM OCCURRING AT 06Z WITH HVY SNOW FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR SIGNATURE AND SFC
OBS SHOWS CHANGEOVER LINE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z. ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND
EASTWARD BTWN 07Z-08Z.

ELSEWHERE...A STEADY LIGHTER SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE N TIER. AS LL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO
DIMINISH MARKEDLY TOWARD DAWN. BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER CONSALL QPF AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF ARND 11/1...EXPECT
SNOW TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOCAL AMTS ARND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE CHANGEOVER. ICE ACCUMS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE S COUNTIES...AS TEMPS ARND 32F WILL
LIMIT ACCRETION RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEIGHT OF THE STORM OCCURRING AT 06Z WITH HVY SNOW FALLING OVR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET. HOWEVER...DUAL POL RADAR SIGNATURE AND SFC
OBS SHOWS CHANGEOVER LINE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MASON DIXON LINE AT 06Z. ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND
EASTWARD BTWN 07Z-08Z.

ELSEWHERE...A STEADY LIGHTER SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE N TIER. AS LL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO
DIMINISH MARKEDLY TOWARD DAWN. BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER CONSALL QPF AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF ARND 11/1...EXPECT
SNOW TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOCAL AMTS ARND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE CHANGEOVER. ICE ACCUMS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE S COUNTIES...AS TEMPS ARND 32F WILL
LIMIT ACCRETION RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240547
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240547
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTS IN LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT KMGW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 09Z. AS ENERGY
TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL LOW EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER NEXT 2-3 HOURS BUT
IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 12Z. NORTHERN PORTS
LOOK TO DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ALL
PORTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 240524
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1224 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM...
THE ONLY TWEAKS TO MAKE ARE WITH AN EYE TOWARD THE NAM/HRRR/RAP
WHICH ALL PORTRAY A BIT OF A DRY SLOT - AS FORSEEN BY THE DAYSHIFT
- WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW/PRECIP INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE...MAYBE EVEN BY 4-5AM...OVER
FRANKLIN CO/SC MTNS. ALL PRECIP MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER
ELSEWHERE IF THE NEWEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ON TOP OF THINGS. THE
LATEST IS NOT ALWAYS THE GREATEST...THOUGH. SO SMALL CHANGES ARE
ALL THAT WILL BE MADE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE SC COS...BUT
LEFT THEM AT LIKELY OR BETTER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. REALLY
HIGH RETURNS ON LWX RADAR JUST TO THE S OF THE MD BORDER ARE MOST
LIKELY A MIX OR HEAVY SNOW PER OBS AND DUAL POL HINTS. SO SNOW
TOTALS SHOULD BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. JUST A SMALL TWEAK
DOWNWARD IN THE SRN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE ALL THAT WERE MADE FOR
THIS UPDATE...BUT ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVYS WILL CONTINUE AS
IS...SINCE THE CHANGES DID NOT DROP ANY AREA OFF THEIR RESPECTIVE
PLATFORMS.

640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS DROPPING TO IFR AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT
IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH
LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND
LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT
IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH
LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND
LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT
IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH
LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND
LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE OH AND TN VLY RGNS WL CONT TO BRING SNW S
OF A DUJ TO ZZV LN INTO ERLY SAT. THE SFC LOW IS ACRS THE
CAROLINAS WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO SWRN PA. PRES FALLS ARE INCRG
ALG THE COAST...SIGNALLING THE DVLPMNT OF A COASTAL LOW OCCURRING.
THIS SHOULD HELP CONT THE DCRG TREND IN THE SNW INTENSITY...THOUGH
ONE MORE MODERATE BAND WL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ACRS THE RIDGES OVRNGT.
CONTD ADVY/WRNG AS IS.

THE SHRTWV SHOULD EXIT SAT MRNG WITH MOST OF THE SNW ENDING. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED TO THE LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT
IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH
LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND
LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 240309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM...
THE ONLY TWEAKS TO MAKE ARE WITH AN EYE TOWARD THE NAM/HRRR/RAP
WHICH ALL PORTRAY A BIT OF A DRY SLOT - AS FORSEEN BY THE DAYSHIFT
- WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW/PRECIP INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE...MAYBE EVEN BY 4-5AM...OVER
FRANKLIN CO/SC MTNS. ALL PRECIP MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER
ELSEWHERE IF THE NEWEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ON TOP OF THINGS. THE
LATEST IS NOT ALWAYS THE GREATEST...THOUGH. SO SMALL CHANGES ARE
ALL THAT WILL BE MADE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE SC COS...BUT
LEFT THEM AT LIKELY OR BETTER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. REALLY
HIGH RETURNS ON LWX RADAR JUST TO THE S OF THE MD BORDER ARE MOST
LIKELY A MIX OR HEAVY SNOW PER OBS AND DUAL POL HINTS. SO SNOW
TOTALS SHOULD BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. JUST A SMALL TWEAK
DOWNWARD IN THE SRN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE ALL THAT WERE MADE FOR
THIS UPDATE...BUT ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVYS WILL CONTINUE AS
IS...SINCE THE CHANGES DID NOT DROP ANY AREA OFF THEIR RESPECTIVE
PLATFORMS.

640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND IS ONLY STARTED TO SNOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240309
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN THE FORM OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM...
THE ONLY TWEAKS TO MAKE ARE WITH AN EYE TOWARD THE NAM/HRRR/RAP
WHICH ALL PORTRAY A BIT OF A DRY SLOT - AS FORSEEN BY THE DAYSHIFT
- WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP SNOW/PRECIP INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE...MAYBE EVEN BY 4-5AM...OVER
FRANKLIN CO/SC MTNS. ALL PRECIP MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER
ELSEWHERE IF THE NEWEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ON TOP OF THINGS. THE
LATEST IS NOT ALWAYS THE GREATEST...THOUGH. SO SMALL CHANGES ARE
ALL THAT WILL BE MADE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT IN THE SC COS...BUT
LEFT THEM AT LIKELY OR BETTER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. REALLY
HIGH RETURNS ON LWX RADAR JUST TO THE S OF THE MD BORDER ARE MOST
LIKELY A MIX OR HEAVY SNOW PER OBS AND DUAL POL HINTS. SO SNOW
TOTALS SHOULD BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE. JUST A SMALL TWEAK
DOWNWARD IN THE SRN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE ALL THAT WERE MADE FOR
THIS UPDATE...BUT ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVYS WILL CONTINUE AS
IS...SINCE THE CHANGES DID NOT DROP ANY AREA OFF THEIR RESPECTIVE
PLATFORMS.

640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND IS ONLY STARTED TO SNOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240254
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
OUR AREA AS IT PASSES BY A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, WE EXPECT THIS MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR A PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE I95-295
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD
KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM
BERKS COUNTY, INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH LITTLE MIXING. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE LESS QPF, SO THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS
WHERE MIXING OCCURS.

FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING AND STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS.

HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED TROUGHINESS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWV
TROFS WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE FIRST WILL BE
EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SAT
EVENING. ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND IS FCST
TO DEEPEN OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF CAPE
COD AT 00Z SUN AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN NW FLOW AND COLD ADVCTN FOR SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS SMWHT COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...
ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS RELATIVELY
FAST MOVG SYSTEM...POSSIBLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NRN DELMARVA WITH
AMOUNTS DECREASING NWD INTO NJ AND PA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT...HWVR
SRN DE COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN.

AFTER PRECIP ENDS MONDAY EVE...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID WEEK BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP THU NIGHT OR FRE BUT FOR NOW THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AND NOT REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARD.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT
MAY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AT KMIV AND KACY
BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN
THE DAY, AND VFR DURING THE EVENING.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MORNING.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD
REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>022-
     027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC/HEAVENER
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 240254
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
OUR AREA AS IT PASSES BY A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING THIS EVENING, IT LOOKS TO BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, WE EXPECT THIS MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY TO CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR A PERIOD DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE I95-295
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD
KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MIX IN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM
BERKS COUNTY, INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH LITTLE MIXING. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE LESS QPF, SO THEY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS
WHERE MIXING OCCURS.

FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING AND STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA, MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS.

HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING
ON SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED TROUGHINESS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWV
TROFS WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE FIRST WILL BE
EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SAT
EVENING. ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND IS FCST
TO DEEPEN OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF CAPE
COD AT 00Z SUN AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN NW FLOW AND COLD ADVCTN FOR SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS SMWHT COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...
ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS RELATIVELY
FAST MOVG SYSTEM...POSSIBLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NRN DELMARVA WITH
AMOUNTS DECREASING NWD INTO NJ AND PA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT...HWVR
SRN DE COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN.

AFTER PRECIP ENDS MONDAY EVE...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID WEEK BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP THU NIGHT OR FRE BUT FOR NOW THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AND NOT REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS RAIN AND SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR, THEN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHWARD.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT
MAY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AT KMIV AND KACY
BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN
THE DAY, AND VFR DURING THE EVENING.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MORNING.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD
REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>022-
     027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC/HEAVENER
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240207 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
907 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
915PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIP TYPE FROM SYSTEM.
HAVE BEEN USING OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE TO WORK THROUGH IT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN UPDATE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO START...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THERE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY
ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF
SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240207 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
907 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
915PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIP TYPE FROM SYSTEM.
HAVE BEEN USING OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE TO WORK THROUGH IT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN UPDATE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO START...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THERE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY
ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF
SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 240145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SNOW IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND IS ONLY STARTED TO SNOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SNOW IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND IS ONLY STARTED TO SNOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AND TAPER OFF MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AREAS CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST...SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LIFT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
HOLD...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TOMORROW NIGHT AT BFD AND JST...BEGINNING BETWEEN 22Z TO
02Z.



OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240024 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...DIFFICULT FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUES AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THE WARMER AIR PUSHING
NORTHWARD AS WELL WHICH IS MAKING PRECIP TYPE A HEADACHE. NEED TO
ADJUST POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR/OBS AND LATEST
HIRES DATA. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO START...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THERE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY
ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF
SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 232339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
639 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
640 PM...
RAIN/SNOW ON THE DOORSTEP JUDGING BY OBS AND INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES ON THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ALONG THERE ARE M30S...SO IT COULD
START AS RAIN OR SNOW. BUT THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL TURN IT
TO SNOW AS THE LOWER ATMOS MOISTENS UP. MILD SRLY WIND IN MD/VA
COULD STILL LIFT SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND PROLONG THE
RAIN CHCS THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS ALREADY IN THE FCST.

PREV...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
CLOUDS QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS AREAWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-
025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-
034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO START...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THERE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY
ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF
SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TO START...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THERE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT IN RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW...ALTHOUGH FKL/ZZV WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES AND MAY
ONLY SEE AN MVFR CIG WITH LITTLE PRECIP. HEAVIEST SNOW AT TAF
SITES WILL BE SEEN AT MGW AND LBE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATOCU MVFR CIG HOLDING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE TAF SITES...STARTING WITH
MGW AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY DROP TO
MVFR BUT IFR CIGS IN SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR A TIME ACROSS ALL
BUT KFKL AND KDUJ TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST LONGEST AT
KLBE AND KMGW...WITH MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. INITIAL PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30`S BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20`S. THINK THAT
WETBULBING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT ONSET BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH BRINGS
HIGHER QPF INTO OUR RIDGE COUNTIES BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A KEY FEATURE THAT DOES SEEM TO BE PRESENT IN
ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THIS IS DRIVING THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW FALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR
REGION. WITH IT CONSISTENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS...OPTED TO BUMP UP
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH BROUGHT 6 INCHES INTO GARRETT
AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED
FORMER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND THE LATTER TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT REMAIN UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME.

STEADY PRECIP AND A LACK OF ANY REAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE/COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET CORE HELPS AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE CLOSING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH H925 AND H850 BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND
25-30KTS ON AVERAGE. ATTM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID SUNDAY
EVENING WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 OVERLAYING AREAS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AT LOWER LEVELS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGGED SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE PROBLEM
IS THAT PLACEMENT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH/DEEPER WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST
FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH ANTICIPATING MODELS CONTINUE THE OBSERVED
TREND. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY CASE...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE TAF SITES...STARTING WITH
MGW AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY DROP TO
MVFR BUT IFR CIGS IN SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR A TIME ACROSS ALL
BUT KFKL AND KDUJ TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST LONGEST AT
KLBE AND KMGW...WITH MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS OVR ALL
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 232121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INSTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
OUR AREA AS IT PASSES BY A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL NOT BE MAKING A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST. WE WILL BE ADJUSTING A FEW DETAILS.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UP TO ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AT 700 PM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

IT SHOULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTH AND THE
EVENT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS ALL SNOW IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE BEST PERIOD OF LIFT SHOULD PROGRESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THE BEST SNOW
GROWTH WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER OUR REGION, AS WELL, WITH NO BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.

A TRANSITION THROUGH SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
THE SAME TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN, AS WELL.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE SNOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 78. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE MIX WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND AN INCH
OR LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, WE HAVE REMOVED THE MARYLAND COUNTIES
OF QUEEN ANNE`S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ALSO, WE HAVE REMOVED KENT COUNTY, DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY
COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL START AS A BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

THE HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED TROUGHINESS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWV
TROFS WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE FIRST WILL BE
EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SAT
EVENING. ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND IS FCST
TO DEEPEN OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF CAPE
COD AT 00Z SUN AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN NW FLOW AND COLD ADVCTN FOR SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS SMWHT COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...
ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS RELATIVELY
FAST MOVG SYSTEM...POSSIBLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NRN DELMARVA WITH
AMOUNTS DECREASING NWD INTO NJ AND PA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT...HWVR
SRN DE COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN.

AFTER PRECIP ENDS MONDAY EVE...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID WEEK BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP THU NIGHT OR FRE BUT FOR NOW THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AND NOT REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO GET TO KILG AND KMIV BY 0200Z, TO
KPHL/KPNE/KRDG/KACY BY 0300Z, AND TO KABE AND KTTN BY 0400Z.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT MAY START
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL
RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MORNING.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD
REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 232121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INSTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
OUR AREA AS IT PASSES BY A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL NOT BE MAKING A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST. WE WILL BE ADJUSTING A FEW DETAILS.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE UP TO ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AT 700 PM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

IT SHOULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTH AND THE
EVENT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS ALL SNOW IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE BEST PERIOD OF LIFT SHOULD PROGRESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THE BEST SNOW
GROWTH WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER OUR REGION, AS WELL, WITH NO BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.

A TRANSITION THROUGH SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
THE SAME TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN, AS WELL.

IT SHOULD BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED WITH THE SNOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 78. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE MIX WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND AN INCH
OR LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, WE HAVE REMOVED THE MARYLAND COUNTIES
OF QUEEN ANNE`S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE FROM THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ALSO, WE HAVE REMOVED KENT COUNTY, DELAWARE AND CAPE MAY
COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL START AS A BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

THE HEAVIEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER GEORGIA THIS EVENING AND
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FINAL LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN
WHICH SHOULD PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
IN THE MORNING TO WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THEY COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED TROUGHINESS
OVER THE EASTERN US AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SEVERAL SHORTWV
TROFS WILL BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE FIRST WILL BE
EXITING THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SAT
EVENING. ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND IS FCST
TO DEEPEN OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF CAPE
COD AT 00Z SUN AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN NW FLOW AND COLD ADVCTN FOR SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS SMWHT COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...
ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS RELATIVELY
FAST MOVG SYSTEM...POSSIBLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER NRN DELMARVA WITH
AMOUNTS DECREASING NWD INTO NJ AND PA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SNOW AS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT...HWVR
SRN DE COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN.

AFTER PRECIP ENDS MONDAY EVE...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID WEEK BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP THU NIGHT OR FRE BUT FOR NOW THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AND NOT REFLECTED IN THE FCST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO GET TO KILG AND KMIV BY 0200Z, TO
KPHL/KPNE/KRDG/KACY BY 0300Z, AND TO KABE AND KTTN BY 0400Z.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG AND KABE WITH A LITTLE
SLEET. IT SHOULD BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN THEN TO RAIN AT KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. THE EVENT MAY START
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL
RAIN.

A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE AIRFIELDS AT KRDG
AND KABE. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WITH SOME ICE POSSIBLE, AS WELL. AN INCH OR LESS
IS FORECAST TO FALL AT KMIV AND KACY.

LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID MORNING
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN
THE IFR RANGE.

THE WIND SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WIND
BACKS TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MORNING.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WE WILL EXPAND IT
TO INCLUDE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 400 AM
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS COULD
REACH 8 TO 10 FEET IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KCTP 232102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
CLOUDS QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS AREAWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232102
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATION BAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROFFY NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PHASING WITH ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY.

MED RANGE MDLS ALL TRACKING A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF PA SUN NIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE TRACK AND
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND THUS SNOW TOTALS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
CLOUDS QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS AREAWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 232022
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATIONBAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...AS MED RANGE
MDLS ALL TRACKING POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF PA SUN
NIGHT. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS QPF IN THE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH RANGE...IMPLYING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH
THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
CLOUDS QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS AREAWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 232022
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM WILL BRING A HIGH IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW...IN THE FORM OF AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD RACING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SW...AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND IT/S ASSOCIATED...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
/1007 MB/ CENTERED NEAR KPNS.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO AN ALTOSTRATUS...7-10 KFT AGL
BY 22Z ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH...THEN TO THE SE OR EAST.

TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 30S AS YOU HEAD SOUTH ACRS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN.

09Z SREF AND 12Z U.S. OPER MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY.

MADE JUST SOME MINOR UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
COUNTIES NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY TRIMMED AMOUNTS
NEAR KTHV AND KLNS...WHERE A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER INTENSITY
PRECIP /SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN/ MAY OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD DEPARTURE OF THE
HIGHER SEEDER-FEEDER CLOUDS...AND PASSAGE OF THE UNFAVORABLE LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.

AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES STILL APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN
CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END...WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.

NO OTHER CHANGES/ADDITIONS MADE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS WITH THIS MID AFTERNOON UPDATE.

RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RES MODEL DATA ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND REACHING IT/S FURTHEST
WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MDL
BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/ RANGES FROM
PRACTICALLY NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE LAURELS...CENTRAL MTNS...AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...TO PERHAPS
0.75 INCHES NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

THE PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW MILDER AIR
INTO FAR SE PA...LIKELY MIXING OR CHANGING THE PTYPE TO EITHER
LIGHTER RAIN OR -FZRA FOR UP TO SEVERAL FROM ARND KLNS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS LOOK
TO BE ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER /TO BRIEFLY MDT/ SNOW
/ASSOC WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING 850-700 MB DEFORMATIONBAND/
IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A BIT LONGER OVR
THE NE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...AS MED RANGE
MDLS ALL TRACKING POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF PA SUN
NIGHT. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS QPF IN THE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH RANGE...IMPLYING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH
THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...PASSING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON /THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENN/ WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
CLOUDS QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS AREAWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MIDDAY,
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MIDDAY,
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MIDDAY,
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MIDDAY,
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AROUND MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO
ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KCTP 231650
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...PASSING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME SLIGHT EROSION AND NRN
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS/STRATO CU CLOUD DECK
JUST NORTH OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR.

THE SUN ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PENN WILL BE QUICKLY HIDDEN
THIS AFTERNOON BY A THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO 7-10 KFT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...
IN ADVANCE OF THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.

ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U20S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M/U30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

FAST-MOVING LOW WILL TRACK UP THE E COAST LATER TONIGHT...PASSING
JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA ARND 12Z SAT.

09Z SREF AND 12Z OP MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING AS THE SFC LOW
TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST 24HRS DUE TO THE LACK OF
A NOTABLE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMTS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END
WINTER STORM WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.
EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS WINT WEATHER ADVISORY NWWD BY A FEW
COUNTIES...AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SAT MORNING FOR THE SCENT MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LWR-
MID SUSQ VALLEY...ALONG WITH THE WRN POCONOS.

LITTLE MDL SPREAD NOTED W/RESPECT TO TIMING OR TRACK...ALL OF
WHICH POINTS TOWARD SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND
REACHING IT/S FURTHEST WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND
MIDNIGHT. MDL BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/
RANGES FROM NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO PERHAPS 0.75 INCHES OVR
LANCASTER CO. PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW
MILDER AIR INTO SE PA...LIKELY CHANGING PTYPE TO EITHER RAIN OR
FZRA FROM ARND KMDT SOUTH AND EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL
STORMS...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE OVR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER SNOW ASSOC WITH MID
LVL SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A
BIT LONGER OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...AS MED RANGE
MDLS ALL TRACKING POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF PA SUN
NIGHT. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS QPF IN THE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH RANGE...IMPLYING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH
THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

STUBBORN LAYER OF SHALLOW...LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN LATE THIS MORNING WILL ERODE GRADUALLY NWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DECK OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCES
QUICKLY NE ABOVE THE LOWER LAYER.

MVFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

THE BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS CLOUDS
QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS ARAEWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231650
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...PASSING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME SLIGHT EROSION AND NRN
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS/STRATO CU CLOUD DECK
JUST NORTH OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR.

THE SUN ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PENN WILL BE QUICKLY HIDDEN
THIS AFTERNOON BY A THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

EXPECT THE CLOUD BASES TO LOWER TO 7-10 KFT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND THE EVENING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...
IN ADVANCE OF THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING SFC LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.

ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS FROM THE U20S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M/U30S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

FAST-MOVING LOW WILL TRACK UP THE E COAST LATER TONIGHT...PASSING
JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA ARND 12Z SAT.

09Z SREF AND 12Z OP MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWD A SWATH OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING AS THE SFC LOW
TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST 24HRS DUE TO THE LACK OF
A NOTABLE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMTS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT JUST TO THE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN /AND ACROSS THE FAR SE/ WHILE LOW END
WINTER STORM WARNING AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE REGION BETWEEN I-81 AND THE I99/ROUTE 22O CORRIDOR.
EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS WINT WEATHER ADVISORY NWWD BY A FEW
COUNTIES...AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH SAT MORNING FOR THE SCENT MTNS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LWR-
MID SUSQ VALLEY...ALONG WITH THE WRN POCONOS.

LITTLE MDL SPREAD NOTED W/RESPECT TO TIMING OR TRACK...ALL OF
WHICH POINTS TOWARD SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE S TIER ARND 00Z AND
REACHING IT/S FURTHEST WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY ARND
MIDNIGHT. MDL BLENDED QPF /AND MEDIAN VALUES ON THE 09Z SREF/
RANGES FROM NOTHING OVR WARREN CO...TO PERHAPS 0.75 INCHES OVR
LANCASTER CO. PASSAGE OF SOUTHERLY LL JET LATE TONIGHT WILL DRAW
MILDER AIR INTO SE PA...LIKELY CHANGING PTYPE TO EITHER RAIN OR
FZRA FROM ARND KMDT SOUTH AND EASTWARD. STILL...EXPECT SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUM BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE SE. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW/WATER RATIOS ARND 12/1...TYPICAL FOR COASTAL
STORMS...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE OVR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BY DAWN SATURDAY...LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIGHTER SNOW ASSOC WITH MID
LVL SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU ARND MIDDAY...AND PERHAPS A
BIT LONGER OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING AND WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GRT LKS TOWARD
EVENING...LIKELY PRODUCING -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SAT
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND TONIGHT/S LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U30S OVR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED ROAD CONDS BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...AS MED RANGE
MDLS ALL TRACKING POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF PA SUN
NIGHT. BLEND OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS QPF IN THE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH RANGE...IMPLYING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE AND EXPECT NO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WITH
THIS EVENT.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WE
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S.

COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK DIVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH STATEWIDE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20F.
SUB-ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY...AS
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...A CALM WIND AND
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO.

MODERATING CHILL IS IN STORE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT IN SERIES
OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

STUBBORN LAYER OF SHALLOW...LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN LATE THIS MORNING WILL ERODE GRADUALLY NWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DECK OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCES
QUICKLY NE ABOVE THE LOWER LAYER.

MVFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

THE BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS CLOUDS
QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH MAJORITY OF TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR BY MID EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WORKS INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING ICING ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...REDUCTIONS ARAEWIDE EARLY AS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST...WITH REDUCTIONS CONTINUING WEST.
BECOMING BREEZY.

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ019-024-025-033-042-045-046-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231517 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY UNTIL SEVERAL AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO CLOUD COVER
WORDING AS CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS...LLVL CLDS WL RMN LOCKED UNDER A TEMP INVERSION THIS
MRNG. SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LLVL CLDS
TO BREAK...THOUGH MID LVL CLDS WL BE INCRG AHD OF THE NXT APCHG
SHRTWV. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF
NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE APCHG SHRTWV WL CROSS THE ERN CONUS TNGT AS A DVLPG SFC LOW
TRACKS FM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. RECENT MDL
TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE NRN FLANK OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE FURTHER N INTO OUR RGN...THOUGH THEY CONT TO VARY FM RUN TO
RUN ON SPECIFICS. PREFERRED THE MORE CONSISTENT SREF SOLN TO
SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. GENLY EXPG 2-4 INCHES OF SNW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD...AND ISSUED A WINTER WEA ADVY FOR
THIS AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRZG RAIN TO MIX IN ALSO. LESSER AMTS ARE EXPD
FURTHER N AND W WHERE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ERLY AS WELL.

THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE RGN SAT...THOUGH SOME LGT
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL AS THE AREA RMNS UNDER BROAD
UPR TROFG.

A DEEPENING SHRTWV IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND GT LKS
RGN SUN INTO MON. MDL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC AND MID LVL LOWS AND HOW MUCH WRM ADVCTN OCCURS AHD OF
THEM...WHICH WL IMPACT SNWFALL AMTS. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES
ADVY LVL SNWFALL IS LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WL CONT TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO LCL IFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE MRNG AS SBSDNCE
INVERSION SLOWLY LWRS. IFR IS STILL EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ
THROUGH THE PERIDAWN HRS. SHRTWV RIDGING IN ADVN OF DEEPENING LOW
OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECT TO INCRS SBSDNC SUFFICIENTLY TO
SPPRT VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT CONDITION DETERIORATION
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...PRIMARILY TO MVFR...AS THE WRN FLANK OF MID
ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRES CLIPS THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS S AND E OF PIT
ON SATURDAY...AND OVR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231517 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY UNTIL SEVERAL AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO CLOUD COVER
WORDING AS CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS...LLVL CLDS WL RMN LOCKED UNDER A TEMP INVERSION THIS
MRNG. SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LLVL CLDS
TO BREAK...THOUGH MID LVL CLDS WL BE INCRG AHD OF THE NXT APCHG
SHRTWV. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF
NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE APCHG SHRTWV WL CROSS THE ERN CONUS TNGT AS A DVLPG SFC LOW
TRACKS FM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. RECENT MDL
TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE NRN FLANK OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE FURTHER N INTO OUR RGN...THOUGH THEY CONT TO VARY FM RUN TO
RUN ON SPECIFICS. PREFERRED THE MORE CONSISTENT SREF SOLN TO
SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. GENLY EXPG 2-4 INCHES OF SNW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND MD...AND ISSUED A WINTER WEA ADVY FOR
THIS AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRZG RAIN TO MIX IN ALSO. LESSER AMTS ARE EXPD
FURTHER N AND W WHERE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ERLY AS WELL.

THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE RGN SAT...THOUGH SOME LGT
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL AS THE AREA RMNS UNDER BROAD
UPR TROFG.

A DEEPENING SHRTWV IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE UPR OH VLY AND GT LKS
RGN SUN INTO MON. MDL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC AND MID LVL LOWS AND HOW MUCH WRM ADVCTN OCCURS AHD OF
THEM...WHICH WL IMPACT SNWFALL AMTS. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATES
ADVY LVL SNWFALL IS LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WL CONT TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS AND INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS AFTR A COLD
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS TROF FILLS. SFC HIGH UNDR
FLAT SHRTWV RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN UNTIL THE APCH OF LATE
WEEK LOW PRES. LITTLE DEVIATION FM WPC GUIDANCE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO LCL IFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE MRNG AS SBSDNCE
INVERSION SLOWLY LWRS. IFR IS STILL EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ
THROUGH THE PERIDAWN HRS. SHRTWV RIDGING IN ADVN OF DEEPENING LOW
OVR THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECT TO INCRS SBSDNC SUFFICIENTLY TO
SPPRT VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT CONDITION DETERIORATION
ONCE AGAIN TNGT...PRIMARILY TO MVFR...AS THE WRN FLANK OF MID
ATLANTIC REGION LOW PRES CLIPS THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS S AND E OF PIT
ON SATURDAY...AND OVR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 231442
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MID
MORNING, WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE ONLY PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS ARE THE POCONOS, AND PERHAPS
SECTIONS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 930 AM. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CLEAR OR CIRRUS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 N OF
KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT WIND.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231442
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MID
MORNING, WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE ONLY PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS ARE THE POCONOS, AND PERHAPS
SECTIONS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 930 AM. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CLEAR OR CIRRUS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 N OF
KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT WIND.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231442
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MID
MORNING, WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE ONLY PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS ARE THE POCONOS, AND PERHAPS
SECTIONS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 930 AM. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CLEAR OR CIRRUS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 N OF
KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT WIND.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231442
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY WHILE A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AT MID
MORNING, WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE. THE MASS OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE ONLY PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THAT
SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS ARE THE POCONOS, AND PERHAPS
SECTIONS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

MEANWHILE, HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 930 AM. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH KENT ISLAND AND DENTON IN MARYLAND, AND
GEORGETOWN IN DELAWARE TOWARD 600 PM.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN SIX
SEGMENTS TO PERMIT MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE COMMENTS: THE SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY SEGMENTS FROM
VCNTY EASTON MD TO CAPE MAY NJ SOUTHWARD ARE LEAST LIKELY TO
VERIFY BUT A BIT OF ICE COULD OCCUR THERE THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE AN INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH SIDE ELSEWHERE AND ICE
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY ADVISED (IE NORTH OF
I78.

CONFIDENCE ON A DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT COMMUTE IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM NEAR I-95 NORTHWESTWARD.

IT WAS A CLOSE CALL ON COMBINED WARNING AMOUNTS FOR JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND 40 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST INCLUDING CHESTER... MONTGOMERY...BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA
HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET IN NJ. WE OPTED FOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ADVISORY APPROACH.

NEVERTHELESS...PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

WE THINK 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW JUST NW OF I95 AND UP TO .15 INCH
ICE EXCEPT ALL OR MAINLY SNOW FROM NORTHWEST BERKS COUNTY THROUGH
THE LEHIGH VALLEY JUST NORTH OF KABE INTO WARREN AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. YOU WILL BE SHOVELING THERE TOMORROW MORNING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW.

ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ICE ACCUMS APPROACHING 1/4 INCH WITHIN
15 MILES OF I95 SATURDAY MORNING.

ICY SLIPPERY TRAVEL SHOULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO PART OF THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SNJ NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S LOWER EASTERN SHORE THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE.

WE RAN THIS FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE NAM WITH TOP DOWN AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS WEATHER EVALUATION...CHANGING ALL SLEET TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGE ANY MELTED SNOW BACK TO ICE PELLETS...SAVE FOR MAYBE AN
HOUR DURING THE TRANSITION.

SNOW COULD BE HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN THE WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 4Z
AND 10Z. THIS CAUSED BY ABOUT TWO WAVES OF NOTABLE FGEN IN THE
900-600MB LAYER. NO 850MB LOW TO ENSURE ALL SNOW NW NJ AND NE PA
BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST CAD IN THE 06Z
TIME FRAME LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

A FRONT END SNOW THUMP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN TRANSITIONING TO
A COLD RAIN FROM SSE TO NNW.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION NEAR
AND EAST OF I95.

MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE WINTRY PORTION OF THE STORM COULD BE DONE
BY 12Z.

SO...THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT WAS MOSTLY THE NAM MOS BLENDED WITH
ITS 2M TEMP FCST. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO WARM AND THE ECMWF
SUPPORT THE COLDER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGING
ALLOWING FOR MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS
MEAN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EACH CARVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAKENING IN THE PACIFIC RIDGING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
COMMENCE.

SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS OUR WATERS WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. 0C 850MB ISOTHERM CONTINUES TO
RUN INLAND THOUGH IT SHOULD STOP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN RDG-UKT-SMQ LINE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
LOT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM
THIS SYSTEM MUST CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS OWN COLD AIR. STILL THINK
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT ARE ACROSS THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS/NNJ THOUGH SOME RIMING OF THE SNOW WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE
AREAS...LOWER SLR EXPECTED. HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" ACROSS NNJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD BE DRY
EVERYWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE LOSE THE
ICE CRYSTALS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW AND THEREFORE WOULD END UP BEING
A FREEZING DRIZZLE...IF THE COLUMN CAN STAY SATURATED LONG ENOUGH.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...USED A PARTIAL THICKNESS OFF
THE GFS FOR PTYPE. TOO SOON TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, LET GET
THROUGH TONIGHT`S EVENT FIRST, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. HIGHS WED WILL BE
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THU. LOWS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (AND CLOSER TO ZERO) OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND IN THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CLEAR OR CIRRUS WITH CIGS 2500-3500 N OF
KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT WIND.

THIS AFTERNOON...WIND TURN LIGHT SOUTHWEST...MAX GUST 15 KT. CIGS
2500-3500 FT SLIDING NEWD LATE AS PER TAFS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
THE ARRIVAL IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT IT APPEARS TO ME THE NAM HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON ITS TSECTIONS.

TONIGHT...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD PER
THE TAFS. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN KPHL/KILG/KMIV AND KACY LATER TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AT THESE AIRPORTS BY 07Z BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR THE FORECAST TIMING DETAILS.

VCNTY KPNE AND KTTN...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT 2 TO 4
INCHES BY 10Z SATURDAY.

VCNTY KABE AND KRDG..MOSTLY SNOW WITH 2-4 INCHES AT TEMPS 30-32F
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.

A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE AT
MANY AIRPORTS.

PLOWING ANTICIPATED AT MOST AIRPORTS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT.

DEICING PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE WETTER SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN.

FORTUNATELY MOST OF THE SNOW AND ICE IS AFTER HEAVIER ARRIVAL-
DEPARTURES BUT THIS FAST MOVING NOR`EASTER WILL PROBABLY IMPACT
LATE NIGHT AIR TRAFFIC HERE.

WIND LIGHT DURING THE EVENING TURNING NE WITH GUSTS 12-22KT BY
12Z SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE SCENARIO OUTLINED...TIMING COULD
BE IN ERROR BY 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS FROM VFR 10 MILES TO IFR VSBY
NEAR 1 MILE... PROBABLY WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES OF SNOW ONSET LATE
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY SHOULD BE A WALL OF SNOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
SMALL CHC MIXED WITH RAIN FOR A FEW MINUTES AT THE START.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
DAWN MON.

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW.

MON NIGHT - TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND TODAY.

SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE WATERS AS
A NOREASTER RACES NEWD TO PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY. ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER A BIT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA/LOW END GALES AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016-021>023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-017>020-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







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