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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010048
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
848 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
overnight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough.
Therefore, POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection
ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping
high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 302347
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
747 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will continue to move offshore overnight. A cold
front, attached to low pressure over Canada, will cross the area
later Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in for the
weekend and persist into the holiday. A warm front may begin to
push into the region next Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region after midnight. 88D
reflectivity images were already showing shower activity over the
coast waters just to our south at 730 PM.  Weak instability
burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the
near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn
Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multi-model TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind. Potential exists for svr further n
through our CWA as per SWODY2.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even though the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850MB warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
eastward moving cold front will be across the region Friday
evening. The arrival of the cooler and drier air will cause pops to
decrease from west to east overnight.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks great with high pressure
building in sat and remaining in control of the weather thru
monday. We will begin to show some increase in pops Monday, with
some slgt chcs or small chc pops across the Delmarva and se PA by
mon afternoon. It shouldn`t be enough to hinder any outdoor
activities for that day. The air will be pleasantly dry on sat,
then some increase in humidity by the 4th. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s in most areas.

The operational models are indicating a disturbance approaching
from the south/southwest Monday night and lasting into Tue. It
appears that a warm front and humid air will crease a round of
showers/tstms for (mostly) the srn parts of the fcst areas. we
will carry chc pops in the fcst attm. Details will be sorted out
as the time frame draws nearer. Temperatures again near normal, or
maybe a degree or two above. It will likely be rather humid as
well. We will continue with a dry and seasonably mild fcst for
Wed-Thu next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR under mostly clear skies to start but MVFR or IFR
conditions in st/fog/haze possible after 06z/01. Isolated showers
or thunderstorms possible 03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. Light
southerly wind. Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty
regarding extent of any showers and st/fog development late
tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/01. a prob30
group was added to all taf sites after 18z to account for the
chance of convective activity. SPC keeps almost the entire CWA under
marginal risk on Friday. South to southwest wind. Confidence:
above average due to multi-model consensus overriding the dry
12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/02 with possible MVFR fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Monday night and Tue...Sct Showers and thunderstorms especially
S/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for late
June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the DE and NJ beaches with
exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation of
water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
oceanside entrance to DE Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD as per next pgh below. This will better
support media early evening broadcasts while permitting our SRF to
run our day 1 forecast through sunset. We have an overwhelming
number of rip current related fatalities occurring near the
evening dinner hour, after beach patrols depart and its still
quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our Day2 will continue
issuing after sunset when presumably more beachgoers are out of
the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

(Friday may yet border on moderate risk during the afternoon
depending on the strength of any onshore flow during the
afternoon, especially NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions most of the
time. Sct TSTMS with higher winds and seas Fri evening and again
Monday night/Tue.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Miketta
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Miketta/O`Hara
Marine...Drag/O`Hara



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000
FXUS61 KCTP 302243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
643 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon will slide
off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. Low level moisture and clouds
will stream north across the region east of the I-99 and route 220
corridor during the predawn hours Friday. An approaching cold
front will interact with this moisture and create scattered
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early Friday
evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the
Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long
holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather...that will
continue through most or all of the 4th of July. A warm front may
drift north toward the Mason...Dixon line Monday...bringing just a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southern Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Took out showers across the far SE prior to Midnight. Nothing
to support showers...given low dewpoints...model fcst...or the
current radar. Also the sun will be setting here in several
hours.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure and subsidence will keep it partly sunny
and dry for the rest of today. A very weak...and moisture starved
short wave trough will move across central and northern
Pennsylvania through this evening...with nothing more than a brief
sprinkle and a minor wind shift across the NW mtns.

The mainly light and variable wind will turn to the south late
tonight into Friday. Wind at the 925 mb level will increase to
around 20 kts from the south in all areas by daybreak Friday...
with precipitable water increasing by nearly one-half of an inch
by 12z Friday per the 30/12Z GEFS.

Temporary clearing of the sct-bkn flat cu across the region will
transition into the nwd advancement of a more extensive bkn-ovc
deck of stratus/strato cu across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region of PA. low temps early Friday should be 5-8F warmer than
early Thursday in many locations...except for the Lower Susq
Valley where the departure from the previous 24 hours will be
less.

Lows will range from near 50F across the NW mtns...to between
60-65F across the SE half of the CWA where the more extensive
cloud cover is expected to advect in from the south later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Deep layer moisture will increase...with a nwd surge of 35mm
PWATs (Plus 1-2 sigma) moving over the eastern half of PA ahead of
the front for the midday and afternoon hours Friday.

The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the
NW. It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east
of State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase
them through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models
as the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for
this possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight.

Moderate deep-layer shear across the Susq Valley and points east
will combine with GEFS mean cape of 800-1000 j/kg to bring
generally scattered...mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

SPC has expanded their marginal risk of SVR TSRA from far NEPA to
now cover approx the eastern half of PA Friday afternoon and early
Fri evening. Isolated strong downburst winds and marginal svr hail
are the main severe weather threats.

Dry conditions with partly cloudy skies will follow for Friday
night/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abnormally dry airmass accompanying dome of high pressure will
support high confidence in fair/dry weather for the weekend with
seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential rain risk
associated with frontal wave of low pressure evolving eastward along
quasi-stationary boundary draped near/along the Ohio River and
I-64/70 corridors. The deterministic models agree that a convective
complex should be entering the lower OH Valley by early Monday.
From this point (around 04/12z) on the GFS and CMC continue to
favor a stronger/northern wave versus the EC/UK which are weaker
and more progressive, keeping the bulk of QPF along and south of
the PA/MD border. The model timing of pcpn also remains an issue
given the small scale nature of the feature at longer ranges.

Until the models can converge on a common solution, will maintain
continuity and make very minor changes to the forecast for early
next week. NDFD grids utilized a multi-model ensemble blend of
NBM/EC/WPC. The most likely outcome still calls for dry wx in most
of central PA through July 4th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind late this afternoon
through much of tonight. Low level moisture will stream north
across most or all of the central ridge and valley region bringing
the chance of mvfr cigs twd daybreak...esp from KMDT and KLNS
north to KIPT.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of a cold front friday afternoon and early friday evening...mainly
across...and east of the Susquehanna Valley. Brief...isolated mvfr
cigs and vsbys are expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Martin
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KCTP 302243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
643 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon will slide
off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. Low level moisture and clouds
will stream north across the region east of the I-99 and route 220
corridor during the predawn hours Friday. An approaching cold
front will interact with this moisture and create scattered
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early Friday
evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the
Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long
holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather...that will
continue through most or all of the 4th of July. A warm front may
drift north toward the Mason...Dixon line Monday...bringing just a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southern Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Took out showers across the far SE prior to Midnight. Nothing
to support showers...given low dewpoints...model fcst...or the
current radar. Also the sun will be setting here in several
hours.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure and subsidence will keep it partly sunny
and dry for the rest of today. A very weak...and moisture starved
short wave trough will move across central and northern
Pennsylvania through this evening...with nothing more than a brief
sprinkle and a minor wind shift across the NW mtns.

The mainly light and variable wind will turn to the south late
tonight into Friday. Wind at the 925 mb level will increase to
around 20 kts from the south in all areas by daybreak Friday...
with precipitable water increasing by nearly one-half of an inch
by 12z Friday per the 30/12Z GEFS.

Temporary clearing of the sct-bkn flat cu across the region will
transition into the nwd advancement of a more extensive bkn-ovc
deck of stratus/strato cu across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region of PA. low temps early Friday should be 5-8F warmer than
early Thursday in many locations...except for the Lower Susq
Valley where the departure from the previous 24 hours will be
less.

Lows will range from near 50F across the NW mtns...to between
60-65F across the SE half of the CWA where the more extensive
cloud cover is expected to advect in from the south later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Deep layer moisture will increase...with a nwd surge of 35mm
PWATs (Plus 1-2 sigma) moving over the eastern half of PA ahead of
the front for the midday and afternoon hours Friday.

The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the
NW. It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east
of State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase
them through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models
as the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for
this possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight.

Moderate deep-layer shear across the Susq Valley and points east
will combine with GEFS mean cape of 800-1000 j/kg to bring
generally scattered...mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

SPC has expanded their marginal risk of SVR TSRA from far NEPA to
now cover approx the eastern half of PA Friday afternoon and early
Fri evening. Isolated strong downburst winds and marginal svr hail
are the main severe weather threats.

Dry conditions with partly cloudy skies will follow for Friday
night/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abnormally dry airmass accompanying dome of high pressure will
support high confidence in fair/dry weather for the weekend with
seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential rain risk
associated with frontal wave of low pressure evolving eastward along
quasi-stationary boundary draped near/along the Ohio River and
I-64/70 corridors. The deterministic models agree that a convective
complex should be entering the lower OH Valley by early Monday.
From this point (around 04/12z) on the GFS and CMC continue to
favor a stronger/northern wave versus the EC/UK which are weaker
and more progressive, keeping the bulk of QPF along and south of
the PA/MD border. The model timing of pcpn also remains an issue
given the small scale nature of the feature at longer ranges.

Until the models can converge on a common solution, will maintain
continuity and make very minor changes to the forecast for early
next week. NDFD grids utilized a multi-model ensemble blend of
NBM/EC/WPC. The most likely outcome still calls for dry wx in most
of central PA through July 4th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind late this afternoon
through much of tonight. Low level moisture will stream north
across most or all of the central ridge and valley region bringing
the chance of mvfr cigs twd daybreak...esp from KMDT and KLNS
north to KIPT.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of a cold front friday afternoon and early friday evening...mainly
across...and east of the Susquehanna Valley. Brief...isolated mvfr
cigs and vsbys are expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Martin
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302212
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will continue to move offshore overnight. A cold
front, attached to low pressure over Canada, will cross the area
later Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in for the
weekend and persist into the holiday. A warm front may begin to
push into the region next Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region after midnight. Weak
instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up
from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward
dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multi-model TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind. Potential exists for svr further n
through our CWA as per SWODY2.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even though the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850MB warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
eastward moving cold front will be across the region Friday
evening. The arrival of the cooler and drier air will cause pops to
decrease from west to east overnight.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks great with high pressure
building in sat and remaining in control of the weather thru
monday. We will begin to show some increase in pops Monday, with
some slgt chcs or small chc pops across the Delmarva and se PA by
mon afternoon. It shouldn`t be enough to hinder any outdoor
activities for that day. The air will be pleasantly dry on sat,
then some increase in humidity by the 4th. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s in most areas.

The operational models are indicating a disturbance approaching
from the south/southwest Monday night and lasting into Tue. It
appears that a warm front and humid air will crease a round of
showers/tstms for (mostly) the srn parts of the fcst areas. we
will carry chc pops in the fcst attm. Details will be sorted out
as the time frame draws nearer. Temperatures again near normal, or
maybe a degree or two above. It will likely be rather humid as
well. We will continue with a dry and seasonably mild fcst for
Wed-Thu next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/01. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or thunderstorms move over a TAF site. Light southerly
wind. Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding
extent of any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/01. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multi-model
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/02 with possible MVFR fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Monday night and Tue...Sct Showers and thunderstorms especially
S/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for late
June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the DE and NJ beaches with
exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation of
water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
oceanside entrance to DE Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD as per next pgh below. This will better
support media early evening broadcasts while permitting our SRF to
run our day 1 forecast through sunset. We have an overwhelming
number of rip current related fatalities occurring near the
evening dinner hour, after beach patrols depart and its still
quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our Day2 will continue
issuing after sunset when presumably more beachgoers are out of
the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

(Friday may yet border on moderate risk during the afternoon
depending on the strength of any onshore flow during the
afternoon, especially NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions most of the
time. Sct TSTMS with higher winds and seas Fri evening and again
Monday night/Tue.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Miketta
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/O`Hara
Marine...Drag/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302202
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
602 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions overnight are expected before a cold front
increases rain chances for Friday. High pressure will bring dry
and mild weather through the holiday weekend. An approaching low
pressure system will increase rain chances on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue dry and mild conditions
tonight. Moisture will slowly increase ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and thus cloud coverage will increase as Friday
progresses.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially in the afternoon. However, guidance continues to
indicate limited moisture with the passage of the trough and thus
POPs remain in the chance category. Warm advection ahead of the
front will be tempered by clouds and showers, keeping high
temperatures from the mid 70s far north to lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will quickly exit quickly with showers ending in
the southeast ridges by Friday evening. Dry and mild high
pressure will then dominate through Sunday with near seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301954
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
354 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon will slide
off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. Low level moisture and clouds
will stream north across the region east of the I-99 and route 220
corridor during the predawn hours Friday. An approaching cold
front will interact with this moisture and create scattered
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early Friday
evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the
Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long
holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather...that will
continue through most or all of the 4th of July. A warm front may
drift north toward the Mason...Dixon line Monday...bringing just a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southern Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it partly sunny and dry
for the rest of today. A very weak...and moisture starved short
wave trough will move across central and northern Pennsylvania
through this evening...with nothing more than a brief sprinkle
and a minor wind shift across the NW mtns.

The mainly light and variable wind will turn to the south late
tonight into Friday. Wind at the 925 mb level will increase to
around 20 kts from the south in all areas by daybreak Friday...
with precipitable water increasing by nearly one-half of an inch
by 12z Friday per the 30/12Z GEFS.

Temporary clearing of the sct-bkn flat cu across the region will
transition into the nwd advancement of a more extensive bkn-ovc
deck of stratus/strato cu across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region of PA. low temps early Friday should be 5-8F warmer than
early Thursday in many locations...except for the Lower Susq
Valley where the departure from the previous 24 hours will be
less.

Lows will range from near 50F across the NW mtns...to between
60-65F across the SE half of the CWA where the more extensive
cloud cover is expected to advect in from the south later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Deep layer moisture will increase...with a nwd surge of 35mm
PWATs (Plus 1-2 sigma) moving over the eastern half of PA ahead of
the front for the midday and afternoon hours Friday.

The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the
NW. It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east
of State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase
them through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models
as the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for
this possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight.

Moderate deep-layer shear across the Susq Valley and points east
will combine with GEFS mean cape of 800-1000 j/kg to bring
generally scattered...mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

SPC has expanded their marginal risk of SVR TSRA from far NEPA to
now cover approx the eastern half of PA Friday afternoon and early
Fri evening. Isolated strong downburst winds and marginal svr hail
are the main severe weather threats.

Dry conditions with partly cloudy skies will follow for Friday
night/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abnormally dry airmass accompanying dome of high pressure will
support high confidence in fair/dry weather for the weekend with
seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential rain risk
associated with frontal wave of low pressure evolving eastward along
quasi-stationary boundary draped near/along the Ohio River and
I-64/70 corridors. The deterministic models agree that a convective
complex should be entering the lower OH Valley by early Monday.
From this point (around 04/12z) on the GFS and CMC continue to
favor a stronger/northern wave versus the EC/UK which are weaker
and more progressive, keeping the bulk of QPF along and south of
the PA/MD border. The model timing of pcpn also remains an issue
given the small scale nature of the feature at longer ranges.

Until the models can converge on a common solution, will maintain
continuity and make very minor changes to the forecast for early
next week. NDFD grids utilized a multi-model ensemble blend of
NBM/EC/WPC. The most likely outcome still calls for dry wx in most
of central PA through July 4th.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind late this afternoon
through much of tonight. Low level moisture will stream north
across most or all of the central ridge and valley region bringing
the chance of mvfr cigs twd daybreak...esp from KMDT and KLNS
north to KIPT.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of a cold front friday afternoon and early friday evening...mainly
across...and east of the Susquehanna Valley. Brief...isolated mvfr
cigs and vsbys are expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301950
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will continue to move offshore overnight. A cold
front, attached to low pressure over Canada, will cross the area
later Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in for the
weekend and persist into the holiday. A warm front may begin to
push into the region next Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A very nice summer afternoon continues in progress. scattered
cumulus-stratocumulus. southwest wind gusting 15 mph with southeast
sea breezes progressing slowly inland along the coasts as you see
on DIX/DOX/TPHL radars and the observed wind shift/temps. south to
southeast winds along the coast near 20 mph late today.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region, mainly after midnight.
Weak instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL
south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may
develop toward dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multi-model TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind. Potential exists for svr further n
through our CWA as per SWODY2.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even though the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850MB warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
eastward moving cold front will be across the region Friday
evening. The arrival of the cooler and drier air will cause pops to
decrease from west to east overnight.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks great with high pressure
building in sat and remaining in control of the weather thru
monday. We will begin to show some increase in pops Monday, with
some slgt chcs or small chc pops across the Delmarva and se PA by
mon afternoon. It shouldn`t be enough to hinder any outdoor
activities for that day. The air will be pleasantly dry on sat,
then some increase in humidity by the 4th. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s in most areas.

The operational models are indicating a disturbance approaching
from the south/southwest Monday night and lasting into Tue. It
appears that a warm front and humid air will crease a round of
showers/tstms for (mostly) the srn parts of the fcst areas. we
will carry chc pops in the fcst attm. Details will be sorted out
as the time frame draws nearer. Temperatures again near normal, or
maybe a degree or two above. It will likely be rather humid as
well. We will continue with a dry and seasonably mild fcst for
Wed-Thu next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. winds becoming south
to southwest with southeasterly sea breezes. Confidence: well
above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/01. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or thunderstorms move over a TAF site. Light southerly
wind. Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding
extent of any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/01. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multi-model
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/02 with possible MVFR fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Monday night and Tue...Sct Showers and thunderstorms especially
S/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for late
June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the DE and NJ beaches with
exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation of
water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
oceanside entrance to DE Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD as per next pgh below. This will better
support media early evening broadcasts while permitting our SRF to
run our day 1 forecast through sunset. We have an overwhelming
number of rip current related fatalities occurring near the
evening dinner hour, after beach patrols depart and its still
quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our Day2 will continue
issuing after sunset when presumably more beachgoers are out of
the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

(Friday may yet border on moderate risk during the afternoon
depending on the strength of any onshore flow during the
afternoon, especially NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions most of the
time. Sct TSTMS with higher winds and seas Fri evening and again
Monday night/Tue.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag 350
Short Term...Drag 350
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/O`Hara 350
Marine...Drag/O`Hara 350




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301945
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
345 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon will slide
off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. Low level moisture and clouds
will stream north across the region east of the I-99 and route 220
corridor during the predawn hours Friday. An approaching cold
front will interact with this moisture and create scattered
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early Friday
evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the
Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long
holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather...that will
continue through most or all of the 4th of July. A warm front may
drift north toward the Mason...Dixon line Monday...bringing just a
chance of a shower or thunderstorm across southern Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it partly sunny and dry
for the rest of today. A very weak...and moisture starved short
wave trough will move across central and northern Pennsylvania
through this evening...with nothing more than a brief sprinkle
and a minor wind shift across the NW mtns.

The mainly light and variable wind will turn to the south late
tonight into Friday. Wind at the 925 mb level will increase to
around 20 kts from the south in all areas by daybreak Friday...
with precipitable water increasing by nearly one-half of an inch
by 12z Friday per the 30/12Z GEFS.

Temporary clearing of the sct-bkn flat cu across the region will
transition into the nwd advancement of a more extensive bkn-ovc
deck of stratus/strato cu across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region of PA. low temps early Friday should be 5-8F warmer than
early Thursday in many locations...except for the Lower Susq
Valley where the departure from the previous 24 hours will be
less.

Lows will range from near 50F across the NW mtns...to between
60-65F across the SE half of the CWA where the more extensive
cloud cover is expected to advect in from the south later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Deep layer moisture will increase...with a nwd surge of 35mm
PWATs (Plus 1-2 sigma) moving over the eastern half of PA ahead of
the front for the midday and afternoon hours Friday.

The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the
NW. It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east
of State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase
them through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models
as the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for
this possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight.

Moderate deep-layer shear across the Susq Valley and points east
will combine with GEFS mean cape of 800-1000 j/kg to bring
generally scattered...mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

SPC has expanded their marginal risk of SVR TSRA from far NEPA to
now cover approx the eastern half of PA Friday afternoon and early
Fri evening. Isolated strong downburst winds and marginal svr hail
are the main severe weather threats.

Dry conditions with partly cloudy skies will follow for Friday
night/Saturday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind late this afternoon
through much of tonight. Low level moisture will stream north
across most or all of the central ridge and valley region bringing
the chance of mvfr cigs twd daybreak...esp from KMDT and KLNS
north to KIPT.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of a cold front friday afternoon and early friday evening...mainly
across...and east of the Susquehanna Valley. Brief...isolated mvfr
cigs and vsbys are expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301909
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
309 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will continue to move offshore overnight. A cold
front, attached to low pressure over Canada, will cross the area
later Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in for the
weekend and persist into the holiday. A warm front may begin to
push into the region next Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A very nice summer afternoon continues in progress. scattered
cumulus-stratocumulus. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this
with southeast sea breezes progressing slowly inland along the
coasts as you see on DIX/DOX/TPHL radars and the observed wind
shift/temps.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region, mainly after midnight.
Weak instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL
south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may
develop toward dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multi-model TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even tho the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850 warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
eastward moving cold front will be across the region Friday
evening. The arrival of the cooler and drier air will cause pops to
decrease from west to east overnight.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks great with high pressure
building in sat and remaining in control of the weather thru
monday. We will begin to show some increase in pops Monday, with
some slgt chcs or small chc pops across the Delmarva and se PA by
mon afternoon. It shouldn`t be enough to hinder any outdoor
activities for that day. The air will be pleasantly dry on sat,
then some increase in humidity by the 4th. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s in most areas.

The operational models are indicating a disturbance approaching
from the south/southwest Monday night and lasting into Tue. It
appears that a warm front and humid air will crease a round of
showers/tstms for (mostly) the srn parts of the fcst areas. we
will carry chc pops in the fcst attm. Details will be sorted out
as the time frame draws nearer. Temperatures again near normal, or
maybe a degree or two above. It will likely be rather humid as
well. We will continue with a dry and seasonably mild fcst for
Wed-Thu next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. winds becoming south
to southwest with southeasterly sea breezes. Confidence: well
above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind.
Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding extent of
any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multi-model
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Monday night and Tue...Sct Showers and thunderstorms especially
S/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for
late June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the De and NJ beaches
with exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation
of water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
Oceanside entrance to De Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD. This will better support media early evening
broadcasts while permitting our SRF to run our day 1 forecast
through sunset. We have an overwhelming number of fatalities
occurring near the evening dinner hour, after beach patrols
depart and its still quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our
Day2 will continue issuing after sunset when presumably more
beachgoers are out of the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

Friday may border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending
on the strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon,
especially NJ.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions most of the
time. Sct TSTMS with higher winds and seas Fri evening and again
Monday night/Tue.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/O`Hara/Meola
Marine...Drag/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301909
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
309 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will continue to move offshore overnight. A cold
front, attached to low pressure over Canada, will cross the area
later Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in for the
weekend and persist into the holiday. A warm front may begin to
push into the region next Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A very nice summer afternoon continues in progress. scattered
cumulus-stratocumulus. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this
with southeast sea breezes progressing slowly inland along the
coasts as you see on DIX/DOX/TPHL radars and the observed wind
shift/temps.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region, mainly after midnight.
Weak instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL
south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may
develop toward dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multi-model TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even tho the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850 warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the
eastward moving cold front will be across the region Friday
evening. The arrival of the cooler and drier air will cause pops to
decrease from west to east overnight.

The upcoming holiday weekend looks great with high pressure
building in sat and remaining in control of the weather thru
monday. We will begin to show some increase in pops Monday, with
some slgt chcs or small chc pops across the Delmarva and se PA by
mon afternoon. It shouldn`t be enough to hinder any outdoor
activities for that day. The air will be pleasantly dry on sat,
then some increase in humidity by the 4th. Temperatures will be
near normal with highs in the low/mid 80s in most areas.

The operational models are indicating a disturbance approaching
from the south/southwest Monday night and lasting into Tue. It
appears that a warm front and humid air will crease a round of
showers/tstms for (mostly) the srn parts of the fcst areas. we
will carry chc pops in the fcst attm. Details will be sorted out
as the time frame draws nearer. Temperatures again near normal, or
maybe a degree or two above. It will likely be rather humid as
well. We will continue with a dry and seasonably mild fcst for
Wed-Thu next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. winds becoming south
to southwest with southeasterly sea breezes. Confidence: well
above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind.
Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding extent of
any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multi-model
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Monday night and Tue...Sct Showers and thunderstorms especially
S/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for
late June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the De and NJ beaches
with exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation
of water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
Oceanside entrance to De Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD. This will better support media early evening
broadcasts while permitting our SRF to run our day 1 forecast
through sunset. We have an overwhelming number of fatalities
occurring near the evening dinner hour, after beach patrols
depart and its still quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our
Day2 will continue issuing after sunset when presumably more
beachgoers are out of the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

Friday may border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending
on the strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon,
especially NJ.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions most of the
time. Sct TSTMS with higher winds and seas Fri evening and again
Monday night/Tue.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/O`Hara/Meola
Marine...Drag/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight before rain
chances increase on Friday, followed by dry high pressure for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild conditions into the
overnight. As a shortwave trough approaches later tonight, an
increase in clouds will begin before sunrise.

That trough and an associated cold front will bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances as Friday progresses, but with
limited moisture POPs remain in the chance category. Warm
advection ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and
showers, keeping high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to
lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
System will exit quickly friday evening with showers ending in
the southeast ridges. Dry and mild high pressure will then
dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions tonight before rain
chances increase on Friday, followed by dry high pressure for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild conditions into the
overnight. As a shortwave trough approaches later tonight, an
increase in clouds will begin before sunrise.

That trough and an associated cold front will bring increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances as Friday progresses, but with
limited moisture POPs remain in the chance category. Warm
advection ahead of the front will be tempered by clouds and
showers, keeping high temperatures from the mid 70s far north to
lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
System will exit quickly friday evening with showers ending in
the southeast ridges. Dry and mild high pressure will then
dominate through Sunday with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching shortwave will try to push a warm front back toward
the region Monday with increasing deep moisture. Still appears
highest rain chances will be along and south of interstate 70
Monday afternoon and evening as system shifts east. Heights will
then rise with increasing temperatures and humidity into Thursday.
Slight chance POPs included mid week for possible diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure shifts east across the region. By Friday afternoon
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is
not high enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301832
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
232 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very nice summer afternoon continues in progress. scattered
cumulus-stratocumulus. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this
with southeast sea breezes progressing slowly inland along the
coasts as you see on DIX/DOX/TPHL radars and the observed wind
shift/temps.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region, mainly after midnight.
Weak instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL
south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may
develop toward dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even tho the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850 warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. winds becoming south
to southwest with southeasterly sea breezes. Confidence: well
above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind.
Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding extent of
any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multimodel
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for
late June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the De and NJ beaches
with exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation
of water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
oceanside entrance to De Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD. This will better support media early evening
broadcasts while permitting our SRF to run our day 1 forecast
through sunset. We have an overwhelming number of fatalities
occurring near the evening dinner hour, after beach patrols
depart and its still quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our
Day2 will continue issuing after sunset when presumably more
beachgoers are out of the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

Friday may border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending
on the strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon,
especially NJ.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag 232
Short Term...Drag 232
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 232
Marine...Drag/Meola 232




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301832
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
232 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very nice summer afternoon continues in progress. scattered
cumulus-stratocumulus. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this
with southeast sea breezes progressing slowly inland along the
coasts as you see on DIX/DOX/TPHL radars and the observed wind
shift/temps.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into the southeast portion of our region, mainly after midnight.
Weak instability burst. Pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL
south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may
develop toward dawn Friday. Light south wind.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised
se of the NJT and DE tonight for an instability burst shower or
garden variety thunderstorm in the 03z-09z time frame.

Confidence: average. doubts about how much fog tonight and whether
it can rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...mixed clouds and sun, warm and more humid. Chance of
showers/isolated thunderstorms during the morning. The primary
thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the
Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent
potential for scattered severe thunderstorms arriving Delmarva
sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J,
multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt.
South to southwest wind.

12z/30 UK/GGEM and EC override on the almost non existent afternoon
NAM QPF, even tho the NAM instability pooling looks correct.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday. its possible we`ll see some 88`s Philadelphia southwestward
since 850 warms to 15C by 12z. Guidance max temps may be biased
low by modeled morning qpf.

FCST Basis: 50 50 blend of 12z/30 gfs/nam MOS but POPS raised to
likely Delmarva because of EC/GGEM?UK qpf and modeled instability
fields.

Confidence: above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 6000 ft. winds becoming south
to southwest with southeasterly sea breezes. Confidence: well
above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
03z-09z se of the NJT and DE. For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind.
Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding extent of
any showers and st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...becoming VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft after any early morning
IFR/MVFR lifts by 15z. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that
scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across
the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South to
southwest wind. Confidence: above average due to multimodel
consensus overriding the dry 12z/30 NAM afternoon qpf.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria tonight through
Friday. A few gusts to 22 kt are possible on the coastal waters
late this afternoon as the sea breeze ramps up, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...remainder of today. LOW risk may border on low end
of moderate during late afternoon if a strong and more onshore
wind develops along Ocean and Monmouth county shores.

Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees above normal for
late June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the De and NJ beaches
with exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT) satellite interpretation
of water temps found a cooler pocket of water at the outermost
oceanside entrance to De Bay (lower 60s) midway between Cape May
and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

From this time forward through September 30 we will be issuing a
day 2 SRF 1 line outlook for the media by 330 PM in the marine
section of this AFD. This will better support media early evening
broadcasts while permitting our SRF to run our day 1 forecast
through sunset. We have an overwhelming number of fatalities
occurring near the evening dinner hour, after beach patrols
depart and its still quite warm. For safety awareness purposes our
Day2 will continue issuing after sunset when presumably more
beachgoers are out of the water.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

Friday may border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending
on the strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon,
especially NJ.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for awhile so that bodes well
for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. The
vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days which
means there is a lack of awareness of the dangers of swimming at
unguarded areas, or near jetties and piers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag 232
Short Term...Drag 232
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 232
Marine...Drag/Meola 232




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301715
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
115 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances
increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild afternoon. Only slight
adjustments to sky grids and afternoon max temperatures for the
update.

As a shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... General VFR is
expected through the TAF period as surface high pressure shifts
east across the region. By Friday afternoon scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop, but confidence is not high
enough to include more than a VCTS mention at this time.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible on Monday as low pressure
approaches, with the potential for restrictions to continue into
Tuesday depending on the storm track.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301604
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1204 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east
across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area
which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend. A
chance of showers is in the forecast for Monday (Independence
Day) as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it mostly sunny and dry
today. Humidity will drop into the 30-40 percent range. A very
weak short wave trough will move overhead through this afternoon
leading to some high-level clouds. Also, just enough moisture will
be present to allow sct cumulus to form this afternoon,
especially in the south- central mountains. POPs will stay
unmentionable as nothing will grow tall enough to produce rain.

A light west wind will turn to the south. Deep mixing will help
temps rise 4-8F higher than Wednesday`s numbers with maxes in the
upper 70s to lower 80s being near...to slightly below normal for
the last day of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Light southerly winds over PA should keep min temps 5-10F milder
than Thurs morning. Deep layer moisture will increase but PWATs
don`t get too far above one inch by Friday afternoon. The best
PWATs will be in the eastern third to half of the area. The upper
trough axis and cold front will swing through late-day or early
night on Friday with the cold front ushering in another very dry
airmass from the Canadian plains.

The NAM and GFS both pop up some isolated showers over the south-
central and southeastern counties later tonight and move them NE.
But, the airmass is still pretty dry tonight and any showers might
have a tough time reaching the ground. But, the right entrance
region of a jet max will provide a positive environment for some
lift and showers in the SE. Will call for scattered-30 POPs late
tonight in the SE. As the moisture increases on Friday and an
advance/lee trough develops the coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms will increase slightly for the daytime in the east.
The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the NW.
It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east of
State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase them
through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models as
the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for this
possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight. It should be
dry after that. Winds never get strong, but deep layer shear
increases - especially in the east. CAPES getting 1000-1500 range
in the northeast/Poconos could make a couple of stronger storms
there in the afternoon/evening. SPC DY2 outlook has introduced a
MRGL risk into the eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind this afternoon through
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301535
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions before rain chances
increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high will continue a dry and mild afternoon. Only slight
adjustments to sky grids and afternoon max temperatures for the
update.

As a shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301503
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1103 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: Forecast looks very good...raise a few temps 1-2F
along and w of I-95 and also warmed temps this morning faster
than previously forecast then leveled off around 18z.

A very nice early summer day in progress. scattered cumulus-stratocu
this afternoon. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this afternoon with
southeast sea breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into our region, mainly after midnight. Weak instability burst.
pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the near 1
inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn Friday.
light south wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...The primary thunderstorm event should develop eastward
near and south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with
what I think is decent potential for sct svr storms arriving
Delmarva sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is
1400+J, multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is
35-45 kt. south to southwest wind.

Have reviewed the 12z/30 nam and am perplexed regarding its lack
of substantive qpf bullseyes late Fri afternoon heading onto the
Delmarva. The cool front, weak short wave, and very unstable
waa TT/SWI/KI indicies, in my opinion, argue for a high impact
event somewhere on the Delmarva. Will review other model guidances
and collaborative messages as to how we end up handling Fri
aftn/eve.

Mid 80s continues to look good for max temps much of the area
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with sct clouds aoa 6000 ft spreading newd during the day.
Light northwest to north wind this morning becomes southwest this
afternoon with southeasterly sea breezes probable by 20z at KACY/KMIV.
Confidence: well above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
after 06z/1. For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS,
but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms move
over a TAF site. Light southerly wind. Confidence: Average since
there is uncertainty regarding extent of any showers and st/fog
development late tonight.

Friday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking
that scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward
across the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South
to southwest wind. Confidence: above average despite a rather
benign looking 12z/30 NAM qpf fcst.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Friday. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters
later this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...Our 1015AM beach patrol conference call netter
concurrence on LOW risk today, but it may border on low end of
moderate during mid and late afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops, especially Ocean and Monmouth counties.

Winds as of 1030am were light and variable with some seabreezes
trying to develop. Water temperatures were around 4 to 5 degrees
above normal for late June...mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the
De and NJ beaches with exceptions. The 1130z/30 (730am EDT)
satellite interpretation of water temps found a cooler pocket of
water at the outermost oceanside entrance to De Bay (lower 60s)
midway between Cape May and Lewes and possibly also near Barnegat.

We have a little room to give on the risk assessment today and
remain with low risk since low tide is now and we`re coming up to
a late afternoon high tide. There is a tendency for stronger rip
currents near low tide when sandbars are exposed and water can
pile up behind the bars and then that water needs to flow seaward.
Additionally, the swell this morning is about half a foot less
than yesterday.

Expect a 2 to 2.5 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low. (It may
border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending on the
strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon, especially
NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting
a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the
new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases
current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday confidence projection is
average. In other words, caution is advised when using a projection
this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height
expectation and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily
change the potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for the next week or so and so
that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beaches. In
our area, fatalities occur mainly after the beach patrols go home
(dinner hour). Not only that, the vast majority of fatalities are
on low- moderate risk days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag  1103
Short Term...Drag 1103
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola
Marine...Drag/Meola 1103




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301412
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an
increase in clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected,
which should limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture
advection. Although the wave will approach, any associated
precipitation should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z
Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with highs in the upper 70s to
near 80. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and
cloud cover, in the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301344
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: Forecast looks very good...raise a few temps 1-2F
along and w of I-95 and also warmed temps this morning faster
than previously forecast then leveled off around 18z.

A very nice early summer day in progress. scattered stratocu this
afternoon. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this afternoon with
southeast sea breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into our region, mainly after midnight. Weak instability burst.
pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the near 1
inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn Friday.
light south wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...the primary thunderstorm event should develop eastward
near and south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with
what I think is decent potential for sct svr storms arriving
Delmarva sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is
1400+J, multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is
35-45 kt. south to southwest wind.

More later today on the day as a whole but mid 80s looks good.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with sct clouds aoa 6000 ft spreading newd during the day.
Light northwest to north wind this morning becomes southwest this
afternoon with southeasterly sea breezes probable by 20z at KACY/KMIV.
Confidence: well above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
after 06z/1. For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS,
but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms
move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind. Confidence: Average
since there is uncertainty regarding extent of any showers and
st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking
that scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward
across the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South
to southwest wind. Confidence: above average.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Friday. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters
later this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay
below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk today, but it may border
on low end of moderate during mid and late afternoon if a strong
and more onshore wind develops, especially Ocean and Monmouth
counties. We have a little room to give today and remain with low
risk since low tide is now and we`re coming up to a late afternoon
high tide. There is a tendency for stronger rip currents near
low tide when sandbars are exposed and water can pile up behind
the bars and then that water needs to flow seaward. Additionally,
the swell this morning is about half a foot less than yesterday.

Expect a 2 to 2.5 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low. (It may
border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending on the
strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon, especially
NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday
projecting a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk
where the new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby
increases current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday projection confidence
is average. Caution is advised when using a projection this far in
advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height expectation and
and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily change the
potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for the next week or so and so
that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beach and in
our area, after the beach patrols go home (dinner hour). Not only
that the vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 944
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola 944




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301256
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
856 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF plan: Forecast looks very good...will probably raise
a few temps 1-2F along and w of I-95 but forecast can easily
accurately succeed as is.

A very nice early summer day in progress. scattered stratocu this
afternoon. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this afternoon with
southeast sea breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into our region, mainly after midnight. Weak instability burst.
pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the near 1
inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn Friday.
light south wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...the primary thunderstorm event should develop eastward
near and south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with
what I think is decent potential for sct svr storms arriving
Delmarva sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is
1400+J, multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is
35-45 kt. south to southwest wind.

More later today on the day as a whole but mid 80s looks good.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with sct clouds aoa 6000 ft spreading newd during the day.
Light northwest to north wind this morning becomes southwest this
afternoon with southeasterly sea breezes probable by 20z at
KACY/KMIV. Confidence: well above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
after 06z/1. For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS,
but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms
move over a TAF site. light southerly wind. Confidence: Average
since there is uncertainty regarding extent of any showers and
st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. we are
thinking scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward
across the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. south
to southwest wind.  Confidence: above average.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk today, but it may
border on moderate during mid and late afternoon if a strong and
more onshore wind develops, especially Ocean and Monmouth counties.
Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds. Local Ocean County
beaches may experience more frequent or stronger rip currents.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low. (It may
border moderate depending on strength of any onshore flow during
the afternoon, especially NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday
projecting a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk
where the new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby
increases current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday projection confidence
is average. Caution is advised when using a projection this far in
advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height expectation and
and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily change the
potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for the next week or so and so
that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beach and in
our area, after the beach patrols go home (dinner hour). Not only
that the vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 857A
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 857A
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola 857A
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola 857A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301256
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
856 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF plan: Forecast looks very good...will probably raise
a few temps 1-2F along and w of I-95 but forecast can easily
accurately succeed as is.

A very nice early summer day in progress. scattered stratocu this
afternoon. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this afternoon with
southeast sea breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move
into our region, mainly after midnight. Weak instability burst.
pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the near 1
inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn Friday.
light south wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...the primary thunderstorm event should develop eastward
near and south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with
what I think is decent potential for sct svr storms arriving
Delmarva sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is
1400+J, multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is
35-45 kt. south to southwest wind.

More later today on the day as a whole but mid 80s looks good.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually
decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near
1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind
becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal
passage.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act
as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our
region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a
little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across
our southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with sct clouds aoa 6000 ft spreading newd during the day.
Light northwest to north wind this morning becomes southwest this
afternoon with southeasterly sea breezes probable by 20z at
KACY/KMIV. Confidence: well above average.

Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze
possible after 06z/1. isolated showers or thunderstorms possible
after 06z/1. For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS,
but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms
move over a TAF site. light southerly wind. Confidence: Average
since there is uncertainty regarding extent of any showers and
st/fog development late tonight.

Friday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. we are
thinking scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward
across the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. south
to southwest wind.  Confidence: above average.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and
thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it
rains late Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk today, but it may
border on moderate during mid and late afternoon if a strong and
more onshore wind develops, especially Ocean and Monmouth counties.
Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds. Local Ocean County
beaches may experience more frequent or stronger rip currents.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low. (It may
border moderate depending on strength of any onshore flow during
the afternoon, especially NJ.)

OUTLOOK...

Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft
7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday
projecting a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk
where the new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby
increases current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday projection confidence
is average. Caution is advised when using a projection this far in
advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height expectation and
and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily change the
potential for dangerous rip current formation.

The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for the next week or so and so
that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beach and in
our area, after the beach patrols go home (dinner hour). Not only
that the vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 857A
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 857A
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola 857A
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola 857A




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301141
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
741 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east
across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area
which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend. A
chance of showers is in the forecast for Monday (Independence
Day) as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No real changes to the forecast other than to remove fog from many
areas. Dewpoint dropped 10+ degrees at KBFD overnight. Haven`t see
a 40 dewpoint reading in a while.

prev...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it dry today. Humidity will
drop into the 30-40 percent range. A very weak short wave trough
will move overhead this morning/early afternoon leading to some
high-level clouds. Enough moisture may be present to allow sct
cumulus to form this afternoon, especially in the south-central
mountains. POPs will stay unmentionable as nothing should grow
tall enough to rain. A light west wind will turn to the south.
Deep mixing will help temps rise 4-8F higher than Wednesday`s
numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Light southerly winds over PA should keep min temps 5-10F milder
than Thurs morning. Deep layer moisture will increase but PWATs
don`t get too far above one inch by Friday afternoon. The best
PWATs will be in the eastern third to half of the area. The upper
trough axis and cold front will swing through late-day or early
night on Friday with the cold front ushering in another very dry
airmass from the Canadian plains.

The NAM and GFS both pop up some isolated showers over the south-
central and southeastern counties later tonight and move them NE.
But, the airmass is still pretty dry tonight and any showers might
have a tough time reaching the ground. But, the right entrance
region of a jet max will provide a positive environment for some
lift and showers in the SE. Will call for scattered-30 POPs late
tonight in the SE. As the moisture increases on Friday and an
advance/lee trough develops the coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms will increase slightly for the daytime in the east.
The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the NW.
It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east of
State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase them
through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models as
the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for this
possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight. It should be
dry after that. Winds never get strong, but deep layer shear
increases - especially in the east. CAPES getting 1000-1500 range
in the northeast/Poconos could make a couple of stronger storms
there in the afternoon/evening. SPC DY2 outlook has introduced a
MRGL risk into the eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania should
ensure widespread vfr conds and light wind today.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301129
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the
upper 70s. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture
and cloud cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach
the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301129
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches tonight, an increase in clouds
and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should limit any
fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection. Although
the wave will approach, any associated precipitation should stay
out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperatures today should be able to reach closer to normal
values amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the
upper 70s. Lows tonight will be limited by increasing moisture
and cloud cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach
the mid- upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will dominate through Sunday with near normal
temperatures.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next
week. The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed
500 mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR through the TAF period as surface high pressure
shifts east across the region.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301046
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for
most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through
the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect
moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of
the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could
begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our
region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level
trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west
through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left
under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect
any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated
instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect
some thunderstorms as well.

The moisture advection could also result in patchy fog ahead of
precip moving into the region depending on how quickly dew point
temperatures recover. Low and mid level clouds propagating into
the region may also limit the coverage of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead
of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms
to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the
coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into
early Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as
a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region
to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to
the north, we could see some isolated activity across our
southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds
(which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from
northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore
however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over
KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick
shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze.

After 00Z, as the flow shifts more southerly and the next system
approaches, could begin to see low level clouds (around 3000 ft
AGL) move into the region. In addition, increasing moisture could
result in patchy fog leading to MVFR or even IFR visibilities.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase from
south to north through this time as well (though still remains
relatively small chances through the overnight hours). For now,
chances are too small to include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions
will be possible if any showers or storms move over a TAF site.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early
Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger
rip currents.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

OUTLOOK...

Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301022
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for
most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through
the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect
moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of
the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could
begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our
region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level
trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west
through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left
under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect
any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated
instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect
some thunderstorms as well.

The moisture advection could also result in patchy fog ahead of
precip moving into the region depending on how quickly dew point
temperatures recover. Low and mid level clouds propagating into
the region may also limit the coverage of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead
of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms
to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the
coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into
early Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as
a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region
to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to
the north, we could see some isolated activity across our
southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds
(which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from
northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore
however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over
KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick
shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze.

After 00Z, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases from
south to north (though still remains relatively small chances
through the overnight hours). For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. In addition, patchy fog will
be possible, primarily at the coastal plains TAF sites (KACY,
KMIV), which could result in MVFR or even IFR visibilities.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early
Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger
rip currents.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

OUTLOOK...

Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301022
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for
most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through
the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect
moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of
the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could
begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our
region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level
trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west
through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left
under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect
any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated
instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect
some thunderstorms as well.

The moisture advection could also result in patchy fog ahead of
precip moving into the region depending on how quickly dew point
temperatures recover. Low and mid level clouds propagating into
the region may also limit the coverage of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead
of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms
to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the
coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into
early Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as
a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region
to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to
the north, we could see some isolated activity across our
southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds
(which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from
northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore
however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over
KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick
shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze.

After 00Z, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases from
south to north (though still remains relatively small chances
through the overnight hours). For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. In addition, patchy fog will
be possible, primarily at the coastal plains TAF sites (KACY,
KMIV), which could result in MVFR or even IFR visibilities.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early
Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger
rip currents.

Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low.

OUTLOOK...

Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KCTP 301010
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
610 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east
across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area
which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend. A
chance of showers is in the forecast for Monday (Independence
Day) as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No real changes to the forecast other than to remove fog from many
areas. Dewpoint dropped 10+ degrees at KBFD overnight. Haven`t see
a 40 dewpoint reading in a while.

prev...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it dry today. Humidity will
drop into the 30-40 percent range. A very weak short wave trough
will move overhead this morning/early afternoon leading to some
high-level clouds. Enough moisture may be present to allow sct
cumulus to form this afternoon, especially in the south-central
mountains. POPs will stay unmentionable as nothing should grow
tall enough to rain. A light west wind will turn to the south.
Deep mixing will help temps rise 4-8F higher than Wednesday`s
numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Light southerly winds over PA should keep min temps 5-10F milder
than Thurs morning. Deep layer moisture will increase but PWATs
don`t get too far above one inch by Friday afternoon. The best
PWATs will be in the eastern third to half of the area. The upper
trough axis and cold front will swing through late-day or early
night on Friday with the cold front ushering in another very dry
airmass from the Canadian plains.

The NAM and GFS both pop up some isolated showers over the south-
central and southeastern counties later tonight and move them NE.
But, the airmass is still pretty dry tonight and any showers might
have a tough time reaching the ground. But, the right entrance
region of a jet max will provide a positive environment for some
lift and showers in the SE. Will call for scattered-30 POPs late
tonight in the SE. As the moisture increases on Friday and an
advance/lee trough develops the coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms will increase slightly for the daytime in the east.
The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the NW.
It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east of
State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase them
through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models as
the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for this
possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight. It should be
dry after that. Winds never get strong, but deep layer shear
increases - especially in the east. CAPES getting 1000-1500 range
in the northeast/Poconos could make a couple of stronger storms
there in the afternoon/evening. SPC DY2 outlook has introduced a
MRGL risk into the eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9u satl imagery at 09z showing dendritic pattern of dense
fog in the deep river/stream valleys of the Allegheny Mountains.
Conditional climatology and 09z dwpt depressions continue to suggest
the main central Pa airfields will not be significantly impacted.
However, can`t rule out a brief vis reduction btwn 09z-11z at KBFD
or KUNV.

Any patchy fog should burn off by arnd 12z, with a near certainty
of VFR conds everywhere for the balance of the day, as high pres
and assoc dry air mass remain over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east
across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area
which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend. A
chance of showers is in the forecast for Monday (Independence
Day) as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it dry today. Humidity will
drop into the 30-40 percent range. A very weak short wave trough
will move overhead this morning/early afternoon leading to some
high-level clouds. Enough moisture may be present to allow sct
cumulus to form this afternoon, especially in the south-central
mountains. POPs will stay unmentionable as nothing should grow
tall enough to rain. A light west wind will turn to the south.
Deep mixing will help temps rise 4-8F higher than Wednesday`s
numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Light southerly winds over PA should keep min temps 5-10F milder
than Thurs morning. Deep layer moisture will increase but PWATs
don`t get too far above one inch by Friday afternoon. The best
PWATs will be in the eastern third to half of the area. The upper
trough axis and cold front will swing through late-day or early
night on Friday with the cold front ushering in another very dry
airmass from the Canadian plains.

The NAM and GFS both pop up some isolated showers over the south-
central and southeastern counties later tonight and move them NE.
But, the airmass is still pretty dry tonight and any showers might
have a tough time reaching the ground. But, the right entrance
region of a jet max will provide a positive environment for some
lift and showers in the SE. Will call for scattered-30 POPs late
tonight in the SE. As the moisture increases on Friday and an
advance/lee trough develops the coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms will increase slightly for the daytime in the east.
The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the NW.
It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east of
State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase them
through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models as
the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for this
possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight. It should be
dry after that. Winds never get strong, but deep layer shear
increases - especially in the east. CAPES getting 1000-1500 range
in the northeast/Poconos could make a couple of stronger storms
there in the afternoon/evening. SPC DY2 outlook has introduced a
MRGL risk into the eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11-3.9u satl imagery at 09z showing dendritic pattern of dense
fog in the deep river/stream valleys of the Allegheny Mountains.
Conditional climatology and 09z dwpt depressions continue to suggest
the main central Pa airfields will not be significantly impacted.
However, can`t rule out a brief vis reduction btwn 09z-11z at KBFD
or KUNV.

Any patchy fog should burn off by arnd 12z, with a near certainty
of VFR conds everywhere for the balance of the day, as high pres
and assoc dry air mass remain over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300817 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Small update was made to the forecast to account for cirrus
spreading into the region in association with an upper disturbance
over southern Michigan. These clouds also may impact formation or
duration of any fog in the northern zones. Previous discussion
follows...

Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally- higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

kramar/fries




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300817 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Small update was made to the forecast to account for cirrus
spreading into the region in association with an upper disturbance
over southern Michigan. These clouds also may impact formation or
duration of any fog in the northern zones. Previous discussion
follows...

Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally- higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

kramar/fries




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300750
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is overhead today. A cold front will move east
across the state on Friday followed by another high pressure area
which will cover the region for most of the holiday weekend. A
chance of showers is in the forecast for Monday (Independence
Day) as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure and subsidence will keep it dry today. Humidity will
drop into the 30-40 percent range. A very weak short wave trough
will move overhead this morning/early afternoon leading to some
high-level clouds. Enough moisture may be present to allow sct
cumulus to form this afternoon, especially in the south-central
mountains. POPs will stay unmentionable as nothing shuold grow
tall enough to rain. A light west wind will turn to the south.
Deep mixing will help temps rise 4-8F higher than Wednesday`s
numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the Upper Great Lakes tonight.
Light southerly winds over PA should keep min temps 5-10F milder
than Thurs morning. Deep layer moisture will increase but PWATs
don`t get too far above one inch by Friday afternoon. The best
PWATs will be in the eastern third to half of the area. The upper
trough axis and cold front will swing through late-day or early
night on Friday with the cold front ushering in another very dry
airmass from the Canadian plains.

The NAM and GFS both pop up some isolated showers over the south-
central and southeastern counties later tonight and move them NE.
But, the airmass is still pretty dry tonight and any showers might
have a tough time reaching the ground. But, the right entrance
region of a jet max will provide a positive environment for some
lift and showers in the SE. Will call for scattered-30 POPs late
tonight in the SE. As the moisture increases on Friday and an
advance/lee trough develops the coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms will increase slightly for the daytime in the east.
The cold front will be arriving just after peak heating in the NW.
It will also be working on pretty dry air until it gets east of
State College. Will keep POPs lower in the west but increase them
through the day. NAM generates more showers than other models as
the really dry moves in during the evening. Have allowed for this
possibility and lingered 20-30 pops through midnight. It should be
dry after that. Winds never get strong, but deep layer shear
increases - especially in the east. CAPES getting 1000-1500 range
in the northeast/Poconos could make a couple of stronger storms
there in the afternoon/evening. SPC DY2 outlook has introduced a
MRGL risk into the eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Refined POPs a bit on the 4th and 5th based on a slightly better
consensus amongst the models that low pressure could slide into
the Ohio Valley and end up bringing some showers/storms to
(mainly the southern half of) the forecast area. The GFS is
slower, pinching off a closed 5H contour for a brief time to our
west. This causes it to be slower with the potential precip
arrival and would keep the 4th and fireworks time dry. This is
still 4-5 days out, so....

prev...
The front shifts off the coast with high pressure and abnormally
dry airmass moving into Central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass will ensure widespread
VFR conds and light wind today across central Pa. The one
exception will be in the deep river/stream valleys of the
Allegheny Mountains, where locally dense fog could form for a few
hours around sunrise. Conditional climatology and latest near term
mdl data suggest the main central Pa airfields will not be
significantly impacted. Best chance for a brief vis reduction
based on climatology and 05z dwpt depressions would be KBFD.

Any patchy fog should burn off by arnd 12z, with a near certainty
of VFR conds everywhere for the balance of the day.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300731
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
331 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night
and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then
build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will
begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region
on late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface high will be the dominant feature for our region for
most of the day. Winds will slowly shift to southwesterly through
the day as the high shifts offshore. With this shift, expect
moisture advection to begin, especially across the southern half of
the region. As such, there is a small chance thunderstorms could
begin to develop and move into Delmarva late in the afternoon.
Otherwise, it should be a dry day across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our
region (generally from the south to the north) as the upper level
trough approaches (but should still remain well to the west
through this period), and in the upper levels, we will be left
under the right rear quadrant of a jet to start the night. Expect
any precip to be mostly showers, though there is some elevated
instability, especially as moisture advection continues, so expect
some thunderstorms as well. The moisture advection could also
result in patchy fog ahead of precip moving into the region
depending on how quickly dew point temperatures recover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it. Instability looks decent and being the warm sector ahead
of the front should allow for enough lift to allow thunderstorms
to develop. The front will arrive late in the day, moving towards the
coast Friday night, exiting to the east of the area overnight into
early Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend
as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front
drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as
a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance
keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region
to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to
the north, we could see some isolated activity across our
southernmost areas.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south
starts to lift northward as a warm front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front
into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The
front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but
it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z. Winds
(which should stay near or below 10 kt) will gradually shift from
northwesterly to southwesterly through this time. Near the shore
however, a sea breeze is expected to develop by 20Z, and move over
KACY and possibly KMIV through the late afternoon hours. A quick
shift to southeasterly winds will be possible with the sea breeze.

After 00Z, the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases from
south to north (though still remains relatively small chances
through the overnight hours). For now, chances are too small to
include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any
showers or storms move over a TAF site. In addition, patchy fog will
be possible, primarily at the coastal plains TAF sites (KACY,
KMIV), which could result in MVFR or even IFR visibilities.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions with brief
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible early
Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Expect a 3 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger
rip currents.

OUTLOOK...

Friday through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday and Monday in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300710
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
310 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain sunny and dry conditions today before
rain chances increase on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will sustain light wind and generally clear
sky early this morning, which has supported prime radiational
cooling conditions. As temperature continues to drop in the next
few hours, some areas may see the development of fog, especially
in river valleys where warm water temperature will sustain
locally-higher dewpoints.

A shortwave trough will amplify this afternoon over the western
Great Lakes, which will lead to a rapid exit of the surface high
pressure. Light upslope flow onto the terrain, coupled with strong
heating and increasing boundary layer moisture could support
isolated to scattered convection in the southeastern zone ridges
this afternoon as indicated in most numerical guidance. Diurnally-
driven low PoPs were included this forecast in this area for the
afternoon, with any convection expected to dissipate by early
evening.

As the shortwave trough approaches Thursday night, an increase in
clouds and modest boundary layer wind is expected, which should
limit any fog potential tonight despite weak moisture advection.
Although the wave will approach, any associated precipitation
should stay out of the forecast area until after 12Z Friday.

Temperature today should be able to reach closer to normal values
amid generally full sun, with maxima forecasted in the upper 70s.
Minima tonight will be limited by increasing moisture and cloud
cover, with overnight temperature forecasted to reach the mid-
upper 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The approaching shortwave trough will graze the forecast area on
Friday, with a few timing differences noted among the various
models. The general picture suggests light rain will be possible
in the morning ahead of the front in a warm-advection pattern,
with showers and storms developing along the system`s advancing
cold front Friday afternoon.

Any precipitation will wane quickly Friday evening as the cold
front continues its southeastward movement and the upper wave
departs. High pressure is expected to build in its wake, leading
to a drier and cooler Friday night.

Warm advection should offset the increasing cloud cover to restore
maxima toward near-climatological normal values. Forecasted maxima
near 80F and minima in the mid-upper 50s will be common this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After the passage of a cold front by Saturday morning, drier
conditions will become common through the remainder of the
weekend. In addition, temperatures will resume an upward tick as
850 mb temperatures begin from the doldrums of post-frontal cold
advection of 9 to 12C on Saturday but surge toward 13 to 15C by
Sunday.

Conditions look to become a bit more unsettled by early next week.
The model and ensemble consensus favor the track of a closed 500
mb system emerging from the southwestern CONUS toward the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Due to this system being essentially cut off
from the large scale upper flow, its track will more than likely
be slow and meandering as it enters the Ohio Valley. As a result,
the model and ensemble spread of solutions result in a crossing of
the CWA sometime between Monday and Wednesday at this point. While
the actual passage is unlikely to be this long, the probability
distribution needed to be spread over this time period. As such,
generally higher chance PoPs were favored for especially the
southern half of the area during this interlude.

As the cut off system is tracking toward/through the area, large
scale upper ridging will be building over it. This will allow for
continually increasing temperatures and humidity into the middle
of next week as a result. We will end up above normal as a result.
Fries

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relatively-calm winds should allow for
temperatures to approach dewpoints overnight. However, due to
recent dryness, there is not much available surface moisture input
into the boundary layer. This, combined with a few incoming high
clouds from NW OH, should manage to keep fog development from
being too terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have
retained some MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise,
however all sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front and again
on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Kramar/Fries




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300614
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
214 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into Friday. A cold front will move
east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed by
more high pressure for Saturday through Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies are clear to scattered over most of the region and the wind
has dropped off to the 5-10 mph range.

Areas of valley fog are likely late tonight through the hours
just after sunrise Thursday as strong radiational cooling causes
the air/water temperature difference to expand beyond 20F in the
typically colder central and northern PA river valleys, a good
rule of thumb for fog.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass will ensure widespread
VFR conds and light wind today across central Pa. The one
exception will be in the deep river/stream valleys of the
Allegheny Mountains, where locally dense fog could form for a few
hours around sunrise. Conditional climatology and latest near term
mdl data suggest the main central Pa airfields will not be
significantly impacted. Best chance for a brief vis reduction
based on climatology and 05z dwpt depressions would be KBFD.

Any patchy fog should burn off by arnd 12z, with a near certainty
of VFR conds everywhere for the balance of the day.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300614
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
214 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into Friday. A cold front will move
east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed by
more high pressure for Saturday through Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies are clear to scattered over most of the region and the wind
has dropped off to the 5-10 mph range.

Areas of valley fog are likely late tonight through the hours
just after sunrise Thursday as strong radiational cooling causes
the air/water temperature difference to expand beyond 20F in the
typically colder central and northern PA river valleys, a good
rule of thumb for fog.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass will ensure widespread
VFR conds and light wind today across central Pa. The one
exception will be in the deep river/stream valleys of the
Allegheny Mountains, where locally dense fog could form for a few
hours around sunrise. Conditional climatology and latest near term
mdl data suggest the main central Pa airfields will not be
significantly impacted. Best chance for a brief vis reduction
based on climatology and 05z dwpt depressions would be KBFD.

Any patchy fog should burn off by arnd 12z, with a near certainty
of VFR conds everywhere for the balance of the day.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible...mainly east.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Slight chance of pm showers/reduced cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300505
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
105 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Have adjusted the sky element based on latest satellite
observations of stubborn cumulus across the area. Clouds are
still expected to dissipate by the mid-evening as subsidence
strengthens.

The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal with a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relative calm winds should allow for temperatures
to approach dewpoints overnight, however due to recent dryness,
there is not much available surface moisture input into the
boundary layer. This combined with a few incoming high clouds from
NW OH should manage to keep fog development from being too
terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have retained some
MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise, however all
sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front,
and again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300505
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
105 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Have adjusted the sky element based on latest satellite
observations of stubborn cumulus across the area. Clouds are
still expected to dissipate by the mid-evening as subsidence
strengthens.

The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal with a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies and relative calm winds should allow for temperatures
to approach dewpoints overnight, however due to recent dryness,
there is not much available surface moisture input into the
boundary layer. This combined with a few incoming high clouds from
NW OH should manage to keep fog development from being too
terribly widespread this morning. Most sites have retained some
MVFR visibility restrictions right around sunrise, however all
sites should go VFR very quickly after sunrise. Fries

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front,
and again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300355
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1155 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into Friday. A cold front will move
east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed by
more high pressure for Saturday through Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Skies are clear to scattered over most of the region and the wind
has dropped off to the 5-10 mph range.

Areas of valley fog are likely late tonight through the hours
just after sunrise Thursday as strong radiational cooling causes
the air/water temperature difference to expand beyond 20F in the
typically colder central and northern PA river valleys, a good
rule of thumb for fog.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing skies overnight will lead to another round of MVFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys. As the region is drier today then tomorrow it
will take a little longer to develop. However, the clearer skies
and the high dewpoints will make it easier to develop fog/mist and
low stratocu. Expect the winds to decouple and go calm between 05Z
to 09Z with reducing conditions forming shortly after.
 The latest SREF and short range models show decent Boundary layer
moisture forming between 06Z to 15Z across most of central
Pennsylvania. MDT and LNS may take a little longer, between 08Z to
10Z.
 Reducing conditions will slowly dissipate tomorrow morning, with
all TAF sites improving between 14Z to 17Z. The next chc for
showers and storms will be late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
Night across the south and east. There is a chance for showers across
the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from the
west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300206
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into Friday. A cold front will move
east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed by
more high pressure for Saturday through Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Skies are clear to scattered over most of the region and the wind
has dropped off to the 5-10 mph range.

Areas of valley fog are likely late tonight through the hours
just after sunrise Thursday as strong radiational cooling causes
the air/water temperature difference to expand beyond 20F in the
typically colder central and northern PA river valleys, a good
rule of thumb for fog.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing skies overnight will lead to another round of MVFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys. As the region is drier today then tomorrow it
will take a little longer to develop. However, the clearer skies
and the high dewpoints will make it easier to develop fog/mist and
low stratocu. Expect the winds to decouple and go calm between 05Z
to 09Z with reducing conditions forming shortly after.
 The latest SREF and short range models show decent Boundary layer
moisture forming between 06Z to 15Z across most of central
Pennsylvania. MDT and LNS may take a little longer, between 08Z to
10Z.
 Reducing conditions will slowly dissipate tomorrow morning, with
all TAF sites improving between 14Z to 17Z. The next chc for
showers and storms will be late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
Night across the south and east. There is a chance for showers across
the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from the
west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300206
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into Friday. A cold front will move
east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed by
more high pressure for Saturday through Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

Skies are clear to scattered over most of the region and the wind
has dropped off to the 5-10 mph range.

Areas of valley fog are likely late tonight through the hours
just after sunrise Thursday as strong radiational cooling causes
the air/water temperature difference to expand beyond 20F in the
typically colder central and northern PA river valleys, a good
rule of thumb for fog.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing skies overnight will lead to another round of MVFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys. As the region is drier today then tomorrow it
will take a little longer to develop. However, the clearer skies
and the high dewpoints will make it easier to develop fog/mist and
low stratocu. Expect the winds to decouple and go calm between 05Z
to 09Z with reducing conditions forming shortly after.
 The latest SREF and short range models show decent Boundary layer
moisture forming between 06Z to 15Z across most of central
Pennsylvania. MDT and LNS may take a little longer, between 08Z to
10Z.
 Reducing conditions will slowly dissipate tomorrow morning, with
all TAF sites improving between 14Z to 17Z. The next chc for
showers and storms will be late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
Night across the south and east. There is a chance for showers across
the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from the
west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300205
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1005 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Have adjusted the sky element based on latest satellite
observations of stubborn cumulus across the area. Clouds are
still expected to dissipate by the mid-evening as subsidence
strengthens.

The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal with a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing skies will allow for max radiational cooling overnight
with temperatures reaching or at least getting very close to
crossover temperatures for fog development despite the relatively
short night. Have maintained IFR fog in the latest TAFs at all
terminals with the exception of KPIT for now, where afternoon
dewpoints were relatively lower and surface SATURATION may be hard
to realize even with the strong radiational cooling.

There is a chance fog development may not occur as latest model
soundings show decreasing specific humidity with height which
would act as a moisture "sink" unless winds are calm all night
(as forecast) with no vertical mixing. Overall, development looks
more likely than not.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions will be possible with a Friday cold front,
and again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
951 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal values with a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light overnight.
Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to develop at
most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z Thursday. Have
included this in terminals with the exception of KPIT for now, as
it does not always have the radiational cooling to reach IFR. Fog
will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
951 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal values with a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light overnight.
Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to develop at
most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z Thursday. Have
included this in terminals with the exception of KPIT for now, as
it does not always have the radiational cooling to reach IFR. Fog
will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300126
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
926 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through
Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from
the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure was centered over the Great Lakes and the Ohio
River Valley this evening. The high will continue building
eastward overnight.

We are anticipating a mostly clear sky overnight with a light and
variable wind. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper
50s and lower 60s in most of our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze
component along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops
around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is
more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The
ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is
basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what
happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that
any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is
overdone.

A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in
the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep
back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than
adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we
are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a
thunderstorm.

The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat
into Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low
pres in the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas
by Sun night.

The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still
exist over the extreme S. By Tue, the aforementioned low
approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe.
Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have
over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue
fcst is low confidence attm.

Temps look to be nr nrml.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under a mostly
clear sky. The wind should be light and variable overnight. It is
expected to settle into the west and southwest for Thursday around
4 to 8 knots.

Outlook...
Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night,
though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys.
The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt
approaches. Moderate confidence.

Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme
s on Mon. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about
7 seconds. Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent
or stronger rip currents.

Outlook...
Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures and
rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west swath
between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:

The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures at or
above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer and spring
seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at our big
four long term sites, temperatures have been above normal and
precipitation below normal, except Wilmington, with slightly above
average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE     68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14


note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg
Climate...Franck/Drag




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300126
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
926 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through
Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from
the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure was centered over the Great Lakes and the Ohio
River Valley this evening. The high will continue building
eastward overnight.

We are anticipating a mostly clear sky overnight with a light and
variable wind. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper
50s and lower 60s in most of our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze
component along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops
around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is
more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The
ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is
basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what
happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that
any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is
overdone.

A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in
the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep
back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than
adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we
are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a
thunderstorm.

The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat
into Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low
pres in the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas
by Sun night.

The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still
exist over the extreme S. By Tue, the aforementioned low
approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe.
Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have
over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue
fcst is low confidence attm.

Temps look to be nr nrml.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under a mostly
clear sky. The wind should be light and variable overnight. It is
expected to settle into the west and southwest for Thursday around
4 to 8 knots.

Outlook...
Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night,
though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys.
The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt
approaches. Moderate confidence.

Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme
s on Mon. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for Thursday, but it
may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more
onshore wind develops. Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about
7 seconds. Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent
or stronger rip currents.

Outlook...
Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures and
rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west swath
between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:

The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures at or
above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer and spring
seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at our big
four long term sites, temperatures have been above normal and
precipitation below normal, except Wilmington, with slightly above
average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE     68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14


note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg
Climate...Franck/Drag




000
FXUS61 KCTP 300117
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
917 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into early Friday. A cold front will
move east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed
by more high pressure for Saturday into Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
With the lowering sun we are seeing the demise of the daytime
cumulus, some of which spawned a few light showers over the
northeastern part of the forecast area.

A transition to mainly clear skies and a light wind will occur
this evening as the center of high pressure moves across the Ohio
River Valley and into western PA.

Areas of Valley Fog are likely during the early to mid morning
hours as a result of strong radiational cooling and the air/water
temperature difference expands to exceed 20F in the typically
colder central and northern PA mountain/river valleys.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Clearing skies overnight will lead to another round of MVFR to
IFR cigs and vsbys. As the region is drier today then tomorrow it
will take a little longer to develop. However, the clearer skies
and the high dewpoints will make it easier to develop fog/mist and
low stratocu. Expect the winds to decouple and go calm between 05Z
to 09Z with reducing conditions forming shortly after.
 The latest SREF and short range models show decent Boundary layer
moisture forming between 06Z to 15Z across most of central
Pennsylvania. MDT and LNS may take a little longer, between 08Z to
10Z.
 Reducing conditions will slowly dissipate tomorrow morning, with
all TAF sites improving between 14Z to 17Z. The next chc for
showers and storms will be late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
Night across the south and east. There is a chance for showers across
the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from the
west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292309
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
709 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into early Friday. A cold front will
move east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed
by more high pressure for Saturday into Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

With the lowering sun we are seeing the demise of the daytime
cumulus, some of which spawned a few light showers over the
northeastern part of the forecast area.

A transition to mainly clear skies and a light wind will occur
this evening as the center of high pressure moves across the Ohio
River Valley and into western PA.

Areas of Valley Fog are likely during the early to mid morning
hours as a result of strong radiational cooling and the air/water
temperature difference expands to exceed 20F in the typically
colder central and northern PA mountain/river valleys.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mvfr to low end vfr cloud deck will persist through the
late afternoon...before quickly dissipating early this evening as
high pressure builds in from the west.

NW winds of 7-11 kts will contain some minor gusts into the mid
teens.

be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this afternoon...especially
across the Susq Valley where more sun and a greater depth of
vertical mixing will occur.

The next chc for showers and storms will be late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday Night across the south and east. Maybe
across the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from
the west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KCTP 292309
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
709 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will drift east and bring generally dry weather
with comfortable humidity into early Friday. A cold front will
move east across the state Friday afternoon and evening followed
by more high pressure for Saturday into Independence day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

With the lowering sun we are seeing the demise of the daytime
cumulus, some of which spawned a few light showers over the
northeastern part of the forecast area.

A transition to mainly clear skies and a light wind will occur
this evening as the center of high pressure moves across the Ohio
River Valley and into western PA.

Areas of Valley Fog are likely during the early to mid morning
hours as a result of strong radiational cooling and the air/water
temperature difference expands to exceed 20F in the typically
colder central and northern PA mountain/river valleys.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mountains...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most
other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mvfr to low end vfr cloud deck will persist through the
late afternoon...before quickly dissipating early this evening as
high pressure builds in from the west.

NW winds of 7-11 kts will contain some minor gusts into the mid
teens.

be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this afternoon...especially
across the Susq Valley where more sun and a greater depth of
vertical mixing will occur.

The next chc for showers and storms will be late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday Night across the south and east. Maybe
across the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from
the west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292232
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
632 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Have adjusted the sky element based on latest satellite
observations of stubborn cumulus across the area. Clouds are
still expected to dissipate by the mid-evening as subsidence
strengthens.

The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal with a mostly sunny sky.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292232
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
632 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Have adjusted the sky element based on latest satellite
observations of stubborn cumulus across the area. Clouds are
still expected to dissipate by the mid-evening as subsidence
strengthens.

The decoupling of the boundary layer overnight will result in
dropping temperatures which should yield in patchy to areas of fog
to develop near the dawn hours as indicated by the majority of
models. Expect the fog to burn shortly after sunrise while low
level mixing begins.

Surface high pressure will prevail Thursday and help raise
temperatures to near normal with a mostly sunny sky.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mostly clear sky Thursday night will transition to mostly
cloudy conditions by Friday morning as a shortwave trough
approaches. Increase in moisture and lift indicated by current guidance
is adequate for chance POPs to remain in the forecast for now and
chance thunder, given thermodynamic profiles. High pressure will
build behind the front and yield benign conditions Saturday with
temperatures remaining slightly below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291948
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through
Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from
the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably
warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress
and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as
of this writing, across Ocean and Burlington counties but less to
the north and south. In fact, there is some sign the wind has
shifted to an offshore component parts of the Monmouth County
coast as of 340 pm. DOX sea breeze is almost stationary or heading
seaward as of this 345 PM writing.

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially
the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be
ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with
less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning.
For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and
used the UPS crossover tool.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component
along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is
more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The
ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is
basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what
happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that
any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is
overdone.

A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in
the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep
back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than
adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we
are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a
thunderstorm.

The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat into
Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low pres in
the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas by Sun
night.

The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still
exist over the extreme S.  By Tue, the aforementioned low
approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe.
Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have
over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue
fcst is low confidence attm.

Temps look to be nr nrml.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to
northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest wind.
There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty KMIV
and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk will
increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by this
evening.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during
the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in
the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast
along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few
gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night,
though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys.
The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt
approaches. Moderate confidence.

Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme
s on Mon.  High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean
County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger
rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ.
Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops.
Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference
of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or
stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west
swath between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:


The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures
at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer
and spring seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at
our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above
normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington,
with slightly above average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE     68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14


note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Drag 348
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg
Climate...Franck/Drag




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291937
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
337 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALthough clouds will continue into the late afternoon, clouds
should all but disappear by sunset. Overnight temperatures should
be a little cooler than last night with clear skies and nearly
calm winds, with some locations dropping into the 40s. Drier air
will continue to move into the region, and this should allow for
sunnier skies than occurred today. High temperatures should return
closer to normal, around 80 degrees in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although skies will be mostly clear Thursday night, a front will
bring a chance of showers everywhere Friday. Have increased pops
everywhere with a slightly earlier arrival timing allowing for
more convective heating, although low-level moisture could be a
limiting factor for rain. A lingering shower may persist into
Friday evening, but have gone with a dry forecast after midnight
and into Saturday. The front will not bring much of a change to
the seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291937
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
337 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return for Thursday, with the next chance of
showers and storms coming on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALthough clouds will continue into the late afternoon, clouds
should all but disappear by sunset. Overnight temperatures should
be a little cooler than last night with clear skies and nearly
calm winds, with some locations dropping into the 40s. Drier air
will continue to move into the region, and this should allow for
sunnier skies than occurred today. High temperatures should return
closer to normal, around 80 degrees in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although skies will be mostly clear Thursday night, a front will
bring a chance of showers everywhere Friday. Have increased pops
everywhere with a slightly earlier arrival timing allowing for
more convective heating, although low-level moisture could be a
limiting factor for rain. A lingering shower may persist into
Friday evening, but have gone with a dry forecast after midnight
and into Saturday. The front will not bring much of a change to
the seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. North to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291932
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through
Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from
the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably
warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress
and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as
of this writing, across Ocean county but less to the north and south.
DOX sea breeze is almost stationary as of this writing.

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially
the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be
ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with
less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning.
For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and
used the UPS crossover tool.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component
along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is
more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The
ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is
basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what
happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that
any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is
overdone.

A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in
the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep
back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than
adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we
are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a
thunderstorm.

The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat into
Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low pres in
the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas by Sun
night.

The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still
exist over the extreme S.  By Tue, the aforementioned low
approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe.
Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have
over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue
fcst is low confidence attm.

Temps look to be nr nrml.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to
northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest
wind. There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty
KMIV and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk
will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by
this evening.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during
the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in
the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast
along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few
gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night,
though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys.
The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt
approaches. Moderate confidence.

Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme
s on Mon.  High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean
County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger
rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ.
Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops.
Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference
of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or
stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west
swath between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:


The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures
at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer
and spring seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at
our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above
normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington,
with slightly above average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE     68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14


note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg
Climate...Franck/Drag




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291932
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through
Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday,
crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from
the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably
warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress
and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as
of this writing, across Ocean county but less to the north and south.
DOX sea breeze is almost stationary as of this writing.

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially
the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be
ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with
less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning.
For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and
used the UPS crossover tool.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component
along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is
more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The
ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is
basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what
happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that
any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is
overdone.

A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in
the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep
back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than
adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we
are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a
thunderstorm.

The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat into
Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low pres in
the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas by Sun
night.

The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still
exist over the extreme S.  By Tue, the aforementioned low
approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the
GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe.
Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have
over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue
fcst is low confidence attm.

Temps look to be nr nrml.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to
northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest
wind. There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty
KMIV and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk
will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by
this evening.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during
the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in
the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast
along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few
gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night,
though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys.
The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt
approaches. Moderate confidence.

Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme
s on Mon.  High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean
County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger
rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ.
Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops.
Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference
of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or
stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday
in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west
swath between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:


The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures
at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer
and spring seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at
our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above
normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington,
with slightly above average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE     68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14


note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg
Marine...Drag/Nierenberg
Climate...Franck/Drag




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291919
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
319 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western great lakes region this afternoon
will drift east and bring generally dry weather with comfortable
humidity into early friday.

A few, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
Susquehanna Valley and South-Central part of the state late
Thursday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move east
across the state Friday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Another area of high pressure will move
in for Saturday with mainly clear, dry conditions and low
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong cold advection focused near the 925mb level helped to
strengthen the subsidence inversion and trap/maintain a shield of
bkn-ovc stratocu across much of the region outside of the
mid/lower Susq Valley. Skies in those areas were mainly sct...but
as the colder air aloft spreads across that region through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening hours, expect periods of bkn
high based strato cu invof kthv and kmdt too.

Max temps in most places will occur between 21-23z as the strato
deck dissolves, and the coldest air in the upper blyr drifts
south toward the mason/dixon line.

A transition to mainly clear skies and light wind will occur from
00z through 06z Thursday as the center of high pressure moves
across the Ohio River Valley and into western PA.

Areas of Valley Fog are likely during the early to mid morning
hours as a result of strong radiational cooling and the air/water
temp diff expands to exceed 20F in the typically colder central
and nrn PA mtn/river valleys.

Min temps will range from the unseasonably very chilly lower 40s
across the NW mtns...to the mid 50s and lower 60s in most other
locations.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday remains somewhat of an interesting forecast, with the
potential for a very minor short wave trough lifting NE from the
Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians and dampening out a bit while
moving across southern and eastern PA and during the daytime
hours. The airmass will be pretty dry, and there will be just a
few triggers for isolated/weak convection across the south
(especially on the ridge tops) where dewpoints will be closer to
60F.

Maxes will warm significantly in most places compared to the cool
temps of Wed...especially across the nrn and western mtns. highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However...the Laurel
Highlands may hold in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mvfr to low end vfr cloud deck will persist through the
late afternoon...before quickly dissipating early this evening as
high pressure builds in from the west.

NW winds of 7-11 kts will contain some minor gusts into the mid
teens.

be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this afternoon...especially
across the Susq Valley where more sun and a greater depth of
vertical mixing will occur.

The next chc for showers and storms will be late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday Night across the south and east. Maybe
across the entire area on Friday...as a cold front approaches from
the west.

OUTLOOK...

Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...a slight increase in humidity for Monday with a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291850
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
250 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably
warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress
and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as
of this writing, across Ocean county but less to the north and south.
DOX sea breeze is almost stationary as of this writing.

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially
the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be
ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with
less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning.
For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and
used the UPS crossover tool.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly
broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes
noticeableto the south and west of PHL during the afternoon.

Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly
during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component
along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon.

Seasonably warm.

FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to
northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest
wind. There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty
KMIV and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk
will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by
this evening.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during
the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in
the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast
along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few
gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean
County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger
rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ.
Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops.
Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference
of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed.
Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or
stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday in
the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th.

No matter what the risk, please think about where you swim.
Jetties and piers NO. Within sight of life guards YES, especially
if you`re a weak swimmer The goal is a safe fun beach experience.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday.

A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal
over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west
swath between I80 and I78.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

Lance prepared the following for your use:


The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures
at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer
and spring seasons compared to normal.

SITE    Actual  #     Normal  #     Departure
----    ---------     ---------     ---------
ACY         5            4.5          + 0.5
PHL         8            6.4          + 1.6
ILG         3            4.4          - 1.4
ABE         6            3.0          + 3.0

In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at
our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above
normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington,
with slightly above average precip.

The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016
average temperature and the resultant departure from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2    2.90  VS  2.31  -0.59
PHL     73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0    3.19  VS  1.87  -1.32
ILG     72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1    3.62  VS  3.69  +0.06
ABE*    68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2    4.01  VS  1.87  -2.14

*If ABE receives 0.20" or less of additional precip, it will
at least tie for the 10th driest June on record. Records for
ABE date back to 1922.

note: the above data represent the month through June 28.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag 250P
Short Term...Drag 250P
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 250P
Marine...Drag/Meola 250P
Climate...250P




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291813 CCA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
213 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the 12:30pm update, have bumped up cloud coverage across the
entire forecast area. Although entire vertical sounding is drier
than it was yesterday, enough northerly flow has developed to
allow diurnal cumulus to develop across the entire region. Cloud
cover will remain the greatest to the north and east of
Pittsburgh. Have dropped high temperatures for the day slightly
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday. Dry and seasonal Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in bringing a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. north to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291812
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
212 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the 12:30pm update, have bumped up cloud coverage across the
entire forecast area. Although entire vertical sounding is drier
than it was yesterday, enough northerly flow has developed to
allow diurnal cumulus to develop across the entire region. Cloud
cover will remain the greatest to the north and east of
Pittsburgh. Have dropped high temperatures for the day slightly
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday. Dry and seasonal Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in brining a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. north to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291812
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
212 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the 12:30pm update, have bumped up cloud coverage across the
entire forecast area. Although entire vertical sounding is drier
than it was yesterday, enough northerly flow has developed to
allow diurnal cumulus to develop across the entire region. Cloud
cover will remain the greatest to the north and east of
Pittsburgh. Have dropped high temperatures for the day slightly
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday. Dry and seasonal Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and seasonal through Sunday. Main change to the extended was
to increase and shift farther northward shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday as models are consistent in brining a shortwave
from the Missouri Valley east toward the region Monday. System
will exit by Tuesday with increasing warmth and humidity into the
middle of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vfr with patchy MVFR strato-cu continues across most ports as
cooler temperatures aloft have allowed widespread formation with
daytime surface heating. Clouds will quickly dissipate toward
sunset. north to northwest winds under 10kts will become light
overnight. Forecast soundings and most model MOS show IFR fog to
develop at most ports before sunrise until just after 12Z
Thursday. Have included this in terminals with the exception of
KPIT for now, as it does not always have the radiational cooling
to reach IFR. Fog will quickly lift after 12Z with VFR through the
day Thursday.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front, and
again on Monday as low pressure approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291743
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for the rest of today and Thursday. A cold-
frontal system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday
weekend is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just
slightly below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong cold advection focused near the 925mb level was helping to
strengthen the subsidence inversion and trap/maintain a shield of
bkn-ovc stratocu across much of the region outside of the
mid/lower Susq Valley. Skies in those areas late this morning were
mainly sct...but as the colder air aloft overspreads that region
through the mid afternoon hours, expect an expansion of bkn clouds
at 3.5-4.5 kft agl (which should last until 20-22z).

Based on this cloud cover, temps were blended/nudged toward
cooler 12z nam/gfs lamp guidance and trimmed by up to several deg
F from previous forecast values.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the upper 60s to around
70F across the nrn and wrn mtns, and mid 70s in the central
valleys (which is a solid several deg f or more below normal in
most areas). Temps reaching the lower 80s across the Lower Susq
Valley will be out about 2-4 deg F shy of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday wkend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 15Z TAF package...have expanded the mvfr cloud deck
across the central ridge and valley taf sites...and maintained
this cloud cover into the mid afternoon...before forecasting it to
lift to mainly low-end vfr. This may be optimistic by a few hours
though. a pocket of unseasonably cool air in the low to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western penn late this morning...will drift
east across the rest of the fcst area this afternoon.

NW winds will be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this
afternoon...especially across the Susq Valley where more sun and a
greater depth of vertical mixing will occur.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291743
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for the rest of today and Thursday. A cold-
frontal system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday
weekend is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just
slightly below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong cold advection focused near the 925mb level was helping to
strengthen the subsidence inversion and trap/maintain a shield of
bkn-ovc stratocu across much of the region outside of the
mid/lower Susq Valley. Skies in those areas late this morning were
mainly sct...but as the colder air aloft overspreads that region
through the mid afternoon hours, expect an expansion of bkn clouds
at 3.5-4.5 kft agl (which should last until 20-22z).

Based on this cloud cover, temps were blended/nudged toward
cooler 12z nam/gfs lamp guidance and trimmed by up to several deg
F from previous forecast values.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the upper 60s to around
70F across the nrn and wrn mtns, and mid 70s in the central
valleys (which is a solid several deg f or more below normal in
most areas). Temps reaching the lower 80s across the Lower Susq
Valley will be out about 2-4 deg F shy of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A vorticity lobe rotating around the south-side of a closed mid
level low over James Bay will send a cold front from the Great
Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Friday.
Model QPF continues to point toward spotty light to moderate
rain amounts with local maxes from upstate NY southward along the
Mid Atlantic piedmont. The best combination of low level moisture
(60+F surface dewpoints) and marginal instability will be located
over the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the area including the middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The severe T-storm outlook from SPC
indicates severe storm potential is very low at this time. The
front shifts off the coast Friday night with high pressure and
abnormally dry airmass moving into central PA for the weekend.

What appeared to be a fairly predictable/confident forecast in
dry weather lasting through the 4th of July has begun to degrade
with recent deterministic model runs showing increasing
differences in shortwave details from the Central U.S. into
southeastern Canada. More specifically, the 29/12z GFS and CMC
show a northward trend or shift in the stationary boundary
located along/north of the I-70 corridor with pcpn arriving in
western PA around the time fireworks are getting underway. The
29/00z ECMWF keeps the boundary and bulk of associated pcpn
further south of the Mason Dixon line along the I-64 corridor.

Given the increasing model differences, will utilize a blend of
the latest guidance with the previous forecast which increases
POPs a bit over the southern counties around Mon-Tue but still
keeps continuity for a mainly dry and seasonable Holiday wkend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 15Z TAF package...have expanded the mvfr cloud deck
across the central ridge and valley taf sites...and maintained
this cloud cover into the mid afternoon...before forecasting it to
lift to mainly low-end vfr. This may be optimistic by a few hours
though. a pocket of unseasonably cool air in the low to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western penn late this morning...will drift
east across the rest of the fcst area this afternoon.

NW winds will be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this
afternoon...especially across the Susq Valley where more sun and a
greater depth of vertical mixing will occur.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291642
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1242 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With the 12:30pm update, have bumped up cloud coverage across the
entire forecast area. Although entire vertical sounding is drier
than it was yesterday, enough northerly flow has developed to
allow diurnal cumulus to develop across the entire region. Cloud
cover will remain the greatest to the north and east of
Pittsburgh. Have dropped high temperatures for the day slightly
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates. Some chance pops were added to the forecast south of
Interstate 70 for Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR stratus that has worked southeast across most ports should be
lifting into a sct-bkn vfr deck through the afternoon. north to
northwest winds under 10kts will diminish overnight. skies will
clear toward sunset under high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291525
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1125 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for the rest of today and Thursday. A cold-
frontal system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday
weekend is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just
slightly below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong cold advection focused near the 925mb level was helping to
strengthen the subsidence inversion and trap/maintain a shield of
bkn-ovc stratocu across much of the region outside of the
mid/lower Susq Valley. Skies in those areas late this morning were
mainly sct...but as the colder air aloft overspreads that region
through the mid afternoon hours, expect an expansion of bkn clouds
at 3.5-4.5 kft agl (which should last until 20-22z).

Based on this cloud cover, temps were blended/nudged toward
cooler 12z nam/gfs lamp guidance and trimmed by up to several deg
F from previous forecast values.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the upper 60s to around
70F across the nrn and wrn mtns, and mid 70s in the central
valleys (which is a solid several deg f or more below normal in
most areas). Temps reaching the lower 80s across the Lower Susq
Valley will be out about 2-4 deg F shy of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 15Z TAF package...have expanded the mvfr cloud deck
across the central ridge and valley taf sites...and maintained
this cloud cover into the mid afternoon...before forecasting it to
lift to mainly low-end vfr. This may be optimistic by a few hours
though. a pocket of unseasonably cool air in the low to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western penn late this morning...will drift
east across the rest of the fcst area this afternoon.

NW winds will be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this
afternoon...especially across the Susq Valley where more sun and a
greater depth of vertical mixing will occur.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291525
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1125 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for the rest of today and Thursday. A cold-
frontal system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday
weekend is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just
slightly below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong cold advection focused near the 925mb level was helping to
strengthen the subsidence inversion and trap/maintain a shield of
bkn-ovc stratocu across much of the region outside of the
mid/lower Susq Valley. Skies in those areas late this morning were
mainly sct...but as the colder air aloft overspreads that region
through the mid afternoon hours, expect an expansion of bkn clouds
at 3.5-4.5 kft agl (which should last until 20-22z).

Based on this cloud cover, temps were blended/nudged toward
cooler 12z nam/gfs lamp guidance and trimmed by up to several deg
F from previous forecast values.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the upper 60s to around
70F across the nrn and wrn mtns, and mid 70s in the central
valleys (which is a solid several deg f or more below normal in
most areas). Temps reaching the lower 80s across the Lower Susq
Valley will be out about 2-4 deg F shy of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 15Z TAF package...have expanded the mvfr cloud deck
across the central ridge and valley taf sites...and maintained
this cloud cover into the mid afternoon...before forecasting it to
lift to mainly low-end vfr. This may be optimistic by a few hours
though. a pocket of unseasonably cool air in the low to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western penn late this morning...will drift
east across the rest of the fcst area this afternoon.

NW winds will be gusty in the upper teens to around 20 kts this
afternoon...especially across the Susq Valley where more sun and a
greater depth of vertical mixing will occur.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291515
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 8am update, added in additional cloud cover across
southwestern and southeastern counties based on current satellite,
but as mentioned below, still think cloud cover will be short-
lived. Previous discussion follows.

Any morning cloud cover will scatter out after sunrise due to a
vastly drier boundary layer than 24 hours ago. This will give way
to plenty of sunshine and temperatures several degrees below
normal through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates. Some chance pops were added to the forecast south of
Interstate 70 for Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR stratus that has worked southeast across most ports should be
lifting into a sct-bkn vfr deck through the afternoon. north to
northwest winds under 10kts will diminish overnight. skies will
clear toward sunset under high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291508
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM ESTF: raised temps several more degrees southeast pa and
southern NJ through the Delmarva. I could see 89 at KACY this
afternoon...86-87 PHL.

Residual boundary layer moisture burning off now and the clouds
should thin this afternoon as drier air mixes and surface dewpoints
decrease. A fine mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue
with a gentle west to northwest wind. Local coastal sea breezes
have already started north and central NJ coasts and these should
spread to all coastal locations this afternoon (southerly increasing
to 10-15 mph).

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should
be less dense with less areal coverage than that of earlier this
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...Leftover MVFR cigs near 2500 ft in NJ probably clearing
to VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft around 16. Elsewhere VFR sct aoa 4000 ft.
Wnd mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob 15 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).

Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents this afternoon It may increase to low enhanced
this afternoon pending weak sea breeze development. Local beaches
in Ocean County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly
stronger rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County
NJ. Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...Low risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if the strong and more onshore (southeast
wind vs todays southerly) develops. Both days, am expecting a 3
ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference in the two days is
mainly via the wind direction and speed. Local Ocean County
beaches may experience more frequent or stronger rip currents.


Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th. No matter what the risk, please think about where you
swim. Jetties and piers NO. Within sight of life guards YES,
especially if you`re a weak swimmer The goal is a safe fun beach
experience.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature on Friday. Ensembles and operational
7 day totals as also WPC D1-D7 totals, were not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I-78 region northward in our CWA.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag  1108
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 1108
Marine...Drag/Meola 1108
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291404
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1004 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: updated for more skycover through early afternoon.
Also raised temps a tad and may need to add another 3F at 11am,
south of I-78. Near coastal temps have been raised considerably.

After patches of early morning fog and stratus burn off, a fine
mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue with a gentle west
to northwest wind. Looks like a period of partly sunny skies in NJ
during the morning as more moisture is evident in the cloud cover
than anticipated earlier. Local coastal sea breezes may develop
this afternoon...probably a southerly sea breeze (instead of
southeasterly which we expect on Thursday).

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should
be less dense with less areal coverage than that of this early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...Leftover MVFR cigs in NJ probably clearing to VFR
sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft around 15z. Elsewhere VFR sct aoa 5000ft. Wind
mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob 15 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).

Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. it may increase to low enhanced
this afternoon pending weak sea breeze development. Local beaches
in Ocean County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly
stronger rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County
NJ. Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...Low risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if the strong and more onshore (southeast
wind vs todays southerly) develops. Both days, am expecting a 3
ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference in the two days is
mainly via the wind direction and speed. Local ocean County


Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th. No matter what the risk, please think about where you
swim. Jetties and piers NO. Within sight of life guards YES,
especially if you`re a weak swimm.er The goal is a safe fun beach
experience.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature Friday, otherwise ensembles and
operational totals as WPC D1-D7 totals are not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I78 region northward.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag 1005
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola
Marine...Drag/Meola 1005
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291404
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1004 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: updated for more skycover through early afternoon.
Also raised temps a tad and may need to add another 3F at 11am,
south of I-78. Near coastal temps have been raised considerably.

After patches of early morning fog and stratus burn off, a fine
mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue with a gentle west
to northwest wind. Looks like a period of partly sunny skies in NJ
during the morning as more moisture is evident in the cloud cover
than anticipated earlier. Local coastal sea breezes may develop
this afternoon...probably a southerly sea breeze (instead of
southeasterly which we expect on Thursday).

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with
seasonable low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should
be less dense with less areal coverage than that of this early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...Leftover MVFR cigs in NJ probably clearing to VFR
sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft around 15z. Elsewhere VFR sct aoa 5000ft. Wind
mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob 15 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).

Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. it may increase to low enhanced
this afternoon pending weak sea breeze development. Local beaches
in Ocean County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly
stronger rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County
NJ. Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic
coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.

Outlook for Thursday...Low risk but it may border on moderate
during the afternoon if the strong and more onshore (southeast
wind vs todays southerly) develops. Both days, am expecting a 3
ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference in the two days is
mainly via the wind direction and speed. Local ocean County


Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through
July 4th. No matter what the risk, please think about where you
swim. Jetties and piers NO. Within sight of life guards YES,
especially if you`re a weak swimm.er The goal is a safe fun beach
experience.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature Friday, otherwise ensembles and
operational totals as WPC D1-D7 totals are not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I78 region northward.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag 1005
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola
Marine...Drag/Meola 1005
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291311
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After patches of early morning fog and stratus burn off, a fine
mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue with a gentle west
to northwest wind. Looks like a period of partly sunny skies in NJ
during the morning as more moisture is evident in the cloud cover
than anticipated earlier. Local coastal sea breezes may develop
this afternoon...probably a southerly sea breeze (instead of
southeasterly which we expect on Thursday).

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer withseasonable
low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less
dense with less areal coverage than that of this early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...Leftover IFR/MVFR cigs vcnty KACY KMIV KTTN probably
clearing to VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft around 15z. Elsewhere VFR sct
aoa 5000ft. Wind mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob
15 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).

Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. However, if the sea breeze develops
early in the afternoon and persists, the risk may increase to
moderate. At this point, though we do not expect that to happen
with most coastal locations seeing offshore flow through the day.

Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature Friday, otherwise ensembles and
operational totals as WPC D1-D7 totals are not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I78 region northward.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola
Near Term...Drag 911
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Meola 911
Marine...Drag/Meola
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291218
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
818 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 8am update, added in additional cloud cover across
southwestern and southeastern counties based on current satellite,
but as mentioned below, still think cloud cover will be short-
lived. Previous discussion follows.

Any morning cloud cover will scatter out after sunrise due to a
vastly drier boundary layer than 24 hours ago. This will give way
to plenty of sunshine and temperatures several degrees below
normal through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates. Some chance pops were added to the forecast south of
Interstate 70 for Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratus around KFKL should scatter out shortly after sunrise. This
will give way to light northerly flow and VFR conditions
thereafter at all sites. Fries

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291216
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
816 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaching from the midwest will merge with central
Atlantic ocean high pressure later Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front
will move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After patches of early morning fog and stratus burn off, a fine
mostly sunny seasonably warm day should ensue with a gentle west
to northwest wind. Local coastal sea breezes may develop this
afternoon...probably a southerly sea breeze (instead of
southeasterly which we expect on Thursday).

Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summerwith
seasonable low temperatures. If fog forms toward dawn, it should
be less dense with less areal coverage than that of this early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. Expect
conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across the
area. Light wind turns southerly during the afternoon with a
definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts, probably
developing around Noon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm air
advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic. This
may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog
will also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the
Area Forecast Discussion is above average.

Rest of today...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft except leftover IFR
stratus fog vcnty KACY and KMIV probably clearing to VFR around
13z. Wind mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob 15 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. nearly calm or
light north to northwest wind. (There is a very small chance for
light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this
is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in
fact move farther west by this evening).

Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft may become broken later in
the afternoon. Light wind becoming south during the afternoon with
a few gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through
Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. However, if the sea breeze develops
early in the afternoon and persists, the risk may increase to
moderate. At this point, though we do not expect that to happen
with most coastal locations seeing offshore flow through the day.

Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday,
Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87
inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of
June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is
still 0.34 inches, set in 1949.

Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty
close to what June will end up both for temperature departures
and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful
reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional
assistance from mother nature Friday, otherwise ensembles and
operational totals as WPC D1-D7 totals are not optimistic for
widespread heavy rains in the I78 region northward.

June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal
ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED
and MPO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Meola  815
Near Term...Drag/Johnson 815
Short Term...Drag/Johnson 815
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola 815
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola 815
Climate...Drag 815




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291123
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
723 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
The few srha in the N have pretty much dissipated. Will keep a
mention in there in case the heating and cyclonic flow decide to
team up later this morning. Clouds over the NW will start to break
up this morning as the trough axis slides to the east.

prioribus...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to
generate lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW.
The deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the
rest of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just
nudge POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility
that it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone
by mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection
or at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in
the morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
More in the way of lower clouds the last 45 minutes.

For the 12Z TAF package...will slow down going to VFR
and gusty winds by 2 hrs.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291123
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
723 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
The few srha in the N have pretty much dissipated. Will keep a
mention in there in case the heating and cyclonic flow decide to
team up later this morning. Clouds over the NW will start to break
up this morning as the trough axis slides to the east.

prioribus...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to
generate lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW.
The deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the
rest of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just
nudge POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility
that it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone
by mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection
or at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in
the morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
More in the way of lower clouds the last 45 minutes.

For the 12Z TAF package...will slow down going to VFR
and gusty winds by 2 hrs.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 291047
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
647 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
The few srha in the N have pretty much dissipated. Will keep a
mention in there in case the heating and cyclonic flow decide to
team up later this morning. Clouds over the NW will start to break
up this morning as the trough axis slides to the east.

prioribus...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to
generate lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW.
The deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the
rest of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just
nudge POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility
that it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone
by mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection
or at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in
the morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the fog is gone. Very clean airmass in place now.

Some lower clouds now at JST.

09Z TAFS sent.

Earlier Decussion below.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward and/or
dissipated with the only remaining cluster east of AOO. The
eastern areas received copious amounts of rainfall on Tuesday.
Considering this, and that there remains a weak boundary over the
region with calm winds, there remains a higher probability for
reducing cigs early today...mainly across eastern areas. Did trim
back the fog some.

So far it looks like IPT will be foggy place overnight.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290936
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
536 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to generate
lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW. The
deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the rest
of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just nudge
POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility that
it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone by
mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection or
at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in the
morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the fog is gone. Very clean airmass in place now.

Some lower clouds now at JST.

09Z TAFS sent.

Earlier Decussion below.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward and/or
dissipated with the only remaining cluster east of AOO. The
eastern areas received copious amounts of rainfall on Tuesday.
Considering this, and that there remains a weak boundary over the
region with calm winds, there remains a higher probability for
reducing cigs early today...mainly across eastern areas. Did trim
back the fog some.

So far it looks like IPT will be foggy place overnight.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290921
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
521 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Any morning cloud cover will scatter out after sunrise due to a
vastly drier boundary layer than 24 hours ago. This will give way
to plenty of sunshine and temperatures several degrees below
normal through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratus around KFKL should scatter out shortly after sunrise. This
will give way to light northerly flow and VFR conditions
thereafter at all sites. Fries

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290912
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
512 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, moving along a stalled frontal boundary, will continue
to move to the northeast through this morning. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will build into the region for Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front will
move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front has stalled over our region for the time
being, but expect it to slowly shift offshore through the morning
hours. A surface trough trailing behind the front should remain near
our region through the day today and could provide some focus for
surface convergence. However, given the dry air advection expected
through the day, do not expect this to result in any precip.

Given the post-frontal air mass, expect temperatures to be near or
slightly below yesterdays highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Depending on how far west the sea breeze reaches during the
afternoon hours, there may be a small chance of fog development on
the coastal plains. However, given the northwesterly flow, do not
expect the sea breeze to make much progress west, so think any fog
development is unlikely.

Otherwise, it should be a pleasant night as the surface high builds
closer. Clearing skies and lower dew points should allow locations
to radiate to near or just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday...High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
Expect conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across
the area. By Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm
air advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic.
This may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog will
also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR and MVFR conditions due to fog and low clouds will continue
intermittently through 12Z. After 12Z, conditions should improve
quickly to VFR with only few to scattered mid level clouds through
the day. Winds should generally settle out of the northwest after
12Z, but remain near or below 10 KT.

After 18Z, a sea breeze is expected to develop. However, given the
synoptic northwesterly flow, we are not expecting this to reach very
far inland (staying E of KACY), as depicted by the RAP and GFS.
However, the NAM does depict the sea breeze reaching at least KACY.

VFR conditions should continue overnight tonight. There is a very
small chance for light fog to develop on the NJ coastal plains
(including KMIV and KACY). For now think that this is unlikely, but
the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther
west by this evening.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light westerly
winds becoming southerly towards the afternoon/evening.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
As the flow shifts back to westerly overnight tonight, a few gusts
to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters, but should stay below
25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. However, if the sea breeze develops
early in the afternoon and persists, the risk may increase to
moderate. At this point, though we do not expect that to happen
with most coastal locations seeing offshore flow through the day.

Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290912
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
512 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, moving along a stalled frontal boundary, will continue
to move to the northeast through this morning. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will build into the region for Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front will
move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front has stalled over our region for the time
being, but expect it to slowly shift offshore through the morning
hours. A surface trough trailing behind the front should remain near
our region through the day today and could provide some focus for
surface convergence. However, given the dry air advection expected
through the day, do not expect this to result in any precip.

Given the post-frontal air mass, expect temperatures to be near or
slightly below yesterdays highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Depending on how far west the sea breeze reaches during the
afternoon hours, there may be a small chance of fog development on
the coastal plains. However, given the northwesterly flow, do not
expect the sea breeze to make much progress west, so think any fog
development is unlikely.

Otherwise, it should be a pleasant night as the surface high builds
closer. Clearing skies and lower dew points should allow locations
to radiate to near or just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday...High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
Expect conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across
the area. By Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm
air advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic.
This may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog will
also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR and MVFR conditions due to fog and low clouds will continue
intermittently through 12Z. After 12Z, conditions should improve
quickly to VFR with only few to scattered mid level clouds through
the day. Winds should generally settle out of the northwest after
12Z, but remain near or below 10 KT.

After 18Z, a sea breeze is expected to develop. However, given the
synoptic northwesterly flow, we are not expecting this to reach very
far inland (staying E of KACY), as depicted by the RAP and GFS.
However, the NAM does depict the sea breeze reaching at least KACY.

VFR conditions should continue overnight tonight. There is a very
small chance for light fog to develop on the NJ coastal plains
(including KMIV and KACY). For now think that this is unlikely, but
the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther
west by this evening.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light westerly
winds becoming southerly towards the afternoon/evening.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
As the flow shifts back to westerly overnight tonight, a few gusts
to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters, but should stay below
25 kt.

RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a low risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents today. However, if the sea breeze develops
early in the afternoon and persists, the risk may increase to
moderate. At this point, though we do not expect that to happen
with most coastal locations seeing offshore flow through the day.

Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290814
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
414 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Any morning cloud cover will scatter out this morning, giving way
to plenty of sunshine and temperatures several degrees below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through tonight, with the
exception of BKN MVFR CIGS in stratus for a time across the
northern ports in cold advection. Stratus across the rest of the
terminals will be unlikely due to lack of moisture.

High pressure will keep categories at VFR for Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290800
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, moving along a stalled frontal boundary, will continue
to move to the northeast through this morning. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will build into the region for Thursday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening
and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure
will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front will
move into the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front has stalled over our region for the time
being, but expect it to slowly shift offshore through the morning
hours. A surface trough trailing behind the front should remain near
our region through the day today and could provide some focus for
surface convergence. However, given the dry air advection expected
through the day, do not expect this to result in any precip.

Given the post-frontal air mass, expect temperatures to be near or
slightly below yesterdays highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Depending on how far west the sea breeze reaches during the
afternoon hours, there may be a small chance of fog development on
the coastal plains. However, given the northwesterly flow, do not
expect the sea breeze to make much progress west, so think any fog
development is unlikely.

Otherwise, it should be a pleasant night as the surface high builds
closer. Clearing skies and lower dew points should allow locations
to radiate to near or just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday...High pressure will build into the region for Thursday.
Expect conditions to remain dry and overall nice summer day across
the area. By Thursday night, we start to see a bigger influx of warm
air advection as southerly flow develops across the Mid-Atlantic.
This may bring a few showers to our southern areas, possibly a
thunderstorm. With the increase in the low level moisture, fog will
also be possible overnight.

Friday...A cold front makes its way towards the region on Friday and
we may see a chance for some showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of it.  The front will arrive later in the day, moving towards the
coast through the evening and should push offshore late Friday
night.

Saturday and Sunday...The cold front pushes further away from the
area early Saturday. A dry day is in store as high pressure starts to
push in from the west.

Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of
the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to
more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture
increase across the region. While the majority of the area should
remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the
eastern shore of Maryland for the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...A warm front will approach the region on Tuesday. This
system forms along a stalled frontal boundary that is situated to
our south. The guidance starts to lift the stalled boundary as a
warm front on Tuesday. The front is forecast to oscillate and that
will impact our precipitation chances. For now, we continue to keep
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR and MVFR conditions due to fog and low clouds will continue
intermittently through 12Z. After 12Z, conditions should improve
quickly to VFR with only few to scattered mid level clouds through
the day. Winds should generally settle out of the northwest after
12Z, but remain near or below 10 KT.

After 18Z, a sea breeze is expected to develop. However, given the
synoptic northwesterly flow, we are not expecting this to reach very
far inland (staying E of KACY), as depicted by the RAP and GFS.
However, the NAM does depict the sea breeze reaching at least KACY.

VFR conditions should continue overnight tonight. There is a very
small chance for light fog to develop on the NJ coastal plains
(including KMIV and KACY). For now think that this is unlikely, but
the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther
west by this evening.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light westerly
winds becoming southerly towards the afternoon/evening.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR conditions will deteriorate as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. MVFR conditions
with brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
possible early Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind
around 10 knots or less.

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds
becoming west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today and tonight.
As the flow shifts back to westerly overnight tonight, a few gusts
to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters, but should stay below
25 kt.

Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or
Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290631
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
231 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to generate
lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW. The
deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the rest
of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just nudge
POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility that
it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone by
mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection or
at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in the
morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward and/or
dissipated with the only remaining cluster east of AOO. The
eastern areas received copious amounts of rainfall on Tuesday.
Considering this, and that there remains a weak boundary over the
region with calm winds, there remains a higher probability for
reducing cigs early today...mainly across eastern areas. Did trim
back the fog some.

So far it looks like IPT will be foggy place overnight.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290631
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
231 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold-frontal
system will approach for the end of the week. The holiday weekend
is looking mainly dry with temperatures close to or just slightly
below normal for early July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper low and good dynamics over western NY are helping to generate
lake effect showers which are sneaking into the far NW. The
deepest part of the trough should slide eastward through the rest
of the night and during the first half of the day. Will just nudge
POPs into the 15-20percent range to mention the possibility that
it may sprinkle right along the NY border. These may be gone by
mid-afternoon, but daytime heating may re-generate convection or
at least keep it going. Again, just a slight chc and mainly in the
morning. Some fog is forming in the eastern valleys where some
heavy rain fell yesterday. Expect the fog to linger for a few
hours after sunrise.

Off to the south...a cluster of showers is dissipating as it
reaches the Lower Susq. All this should be done in the next hour
or so. Drier air is on the way to the eastern zones. They have
been languishing in the U60s to L70s for dewpoints for a while
and a drop into the 50s will make it feel so much more
comfortable/refreshing. Will keep the forecast dry for the
balance of the area today as the dry airmass will make it
difficult to make any diurnal cu grow to any more than just a few
kft. 8H temps dip 3-5C over much of the area but hang close to
current numbers around +10C in the NW. This should bring the maxes
in 2-5F below normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A really comfortable night is in store tonight. It is not out of
the question that the valleys in the northern mountains could get
to 40F. Most of the area will be in the 50s for mins. A few
clouds over the southern third of the area could keep temps from
getting below 60F there.

Thursday is an interesting forecast with the potential for a very
minor short wave trough to move across during the daytime. The air
is pretty dry and very few triggers will exist - other than the
hill tops. Most if not all of the area should stay dry with
little moisture. There is just a slight chance of a shower popping
up in the aftn across the srn hill tops where dewpoints will be
closer to 60F. Maxes will warm 3-6F over Wed as a light south wind
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward and/or
dissipated with the only remaining cluster east of AOO. The
eastern areas received copious amounts of rainfall on Tuesday.
Considering this, and that there remains a weak boundary over the
region with calm winds, there remains a higher probability for
reducing cigs early today...mainly across eastern areas. Did trim
back the fog some.

So far it looks like IPT will be foggy place overnight.

With the cold air aloft...and strong June sun...expect any low
cigs and fog to quickly mix out this morning.

Next chc for showers and storms will be Thursday Night across
the east. Maybe across the entire area on Friday...if both
systems phase.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Thu Night-Fri...Isold tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290541 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.
The chance for shower and storms return late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to the overnight period. Minor adjustments to
cloud cover, trying to better portray the stratocu deck that will
spread over portions of the area with the cold air advection.
Temperatures have been modified with the latest hires guidance.

Any cloud cover will scatter out this morning, giving way to
plenty of sunshine and temperatures several degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through tonight, with the
exception of BKN MVFR CIGS in stratus for a time across the
northern ports in cold advection. Stratus across the rest of the
terminals will be unlikely due to lack of moisture.

High pressure will keep categories at VFR for Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290307
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1107 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly across the region this evening. High
pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold
frontal system will approach for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Between the loss of heating and the low level convergence line
shifting east, convection is winding down quickly as of 9pm. We
have canceled the watch and what`s left on the radar should
continue to diminish.

Skies across much of the central ridge and valley region should
turn clear to partly cloudy with patchy valley fog possible after
midnight.

Min temps early Wednesday will range from around 50F across the nw
mtns...to the lower and mid 60s in the far SE where dewpoints
don`t get below 60F and a little wind will likely trim the temp
fall there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday looks stellar for late June in most places across
central and southern PA. Afternoon high temps will be near normal
and a partly to mostly sunny sky after any morning low
clouds/patchy fog burn off.

Just a little wind from the NW (gusting into the mid teens)
with the 6mb gradient across the state. With respect to the
potential for any showers...700 mb temps dip near 0C are noted
across the northern mtns during the afternoon hours with a fairly
distinct CFA near the axis of steepest mid level lapse rates of
6.5C/KM. Showers should be isolated with rainfall under one tenth
of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Most showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward and/or
dissipated with the only remaining cluster south of JST and AOO.
The area received copious amounts of rainfall today. Considering
this, and that there remains a weak boundary over the region with
calm winds, there remains a higher probability for reducing cigs
and vsbys overnight into tomorrow morning. The only reducing
factor will be that mid to high clouds should remain over much of
the region that will keep temperatures slightly warmer. Even given
this, the calm winds and large amounts of low level moisture
should allow for MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs beginning between 06Z
to 09Z. These conditions should intensify through 12z before
slowly dissipating around 15Z.
 The sites with the best chances for IFR are IPT, MDT and LNS.

Otherwise, VFR should overtake the region by late morning and
remain so the rest of the day.

OUTLOOK...

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290148
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along a cold front was crossing the mid Atlantic
states this evening. That front drifts offshore on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure builds in for Thursday. A cold front approaches from
the west on Friday and moves offshore Saturday. High pressure
follows later Saturday into Monday. A strong warm front should be
moving northeast toward our area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305 has been cancelled in our forecast
area. While scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into
the overnight hours, the threat for damaging wind gusts and hail
has ended.

An outflow boundary from the earlier convection over the Lehigh
Valley and northwestern New Jersey was pushing down into
southeastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey around 930 pm. As
the boundary continues to move southward, additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop in its wake. Locally moderate to heavy
rain is possible. Meanwhile, a cold front will continue to drift
into our region from the northwest.

The shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to diminish
gradually late tonight leaving a fair amount of low level
moisture. There will not be much wind associated with the cold
front so we are anticipating low clouds and patchy fog to develop.

Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday should be a very nice day. The cold front will either
be offshore, or moving offshore at the start of the day. We are
not expecting any showers to be affecting the area, but if there
was any showers, it would be near the frontal boundary.

After any morning fog/low clouds burns off, a nice day should
develop across the area. Some scattered cumulus cloud build up is
expected during the day, but we`ll be precipitation free. We are
expecting close to normal, or slightly above normal temperatures
for Wednesday, even with the light northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB: A -1SD short wave trough over the eastern Great Lakes
Tuesday night weakens during mid week at the expense of a more
significant trough (-2SD) developing over southeast Canada late
Friday and Saturday. Eventually ridging follows into the northeast
USA early next week.

Temperatures: June, through the 27th has averaged 1 to 2 degrees
above normal at PHL, RDG, ABE, and TTN, near normal at ILG/ACY,
0.6F above normal at GED and surprisingly a degree below normal at
MPO. Calendar day averages the next week or so should be within 3
degrees of normal... nothing notable. So the monthly average
should be very close to the monthly departures posted above and
also available in our preliminary CF6 within the MT Holly climate
web link.

Forecast basis: Unless otherwise noted, a 50 50 blend of the
12z/28 GFS/NAM MOS guidance Wednesday night - Thursday night,
thereafter the 12z/28 GFS MEX MOS for Friday and WPC Guidance
Friday night- Tuesday. I did take into account the 12z/28 ECMWF op
run and added several degrees to some of the max`s Thu-Mon,
especially north of PHL near I78 north to the northern border.
Saturday: raised temps almost all the way to the coast where near
90F possible on a west or west southwest wind.

The dailies...

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure briefly builds
in, in the wake of the cold front. Nice seasonable summer weather.
Confidence: Above average.

Thursday night...waa may still bring a shower or thunderstorm to
the DE coast. Patchy fog probable parts of the area, especially
favored nw NJ valleys. Confidence: average.

Friday...a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next
cold front, otherwise partly to mostly sunny, very warm and more
humid. Heat index lower 90s. Confidence: average.

Saturday...Rainfree and very warm, lower dewpoints. Confidence:
above average.

Sunday through Monday Independence Day...Weak high pressure
should build in for Sunday and Independence Day. Thus at this
point, we still expect this period to be dry. Nice summer weather
for the outdoor celebrations. Confidence: Average. the reason its
only average is that am a little concerned about thunderstorms
moving into the area Monday afternoon ahead of a developing strong
warm front.

Tuesday...Depending on how quickly the high shifts off shore, low
level flow will shift to southerly sometime on Tuesday, bringing
warm air and moisture advection. Forecast is rainfree at this time
but warm frontal thunderstorms are a concern. Confidence: below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist in our region
and they should diminish gradually after midnight (0400Z). A good
deal of lingering low level moisture will likely result in the
development of low clouds and patchy fog.

Conditions are forecast to improve rapidly between about 1200Z
and 1400Z with VFR expected for the balance of the TAF period.

A light and variable wind overnight is forecast to settle into
the northwest and west for Wednesday around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...
Confidence on the days listed below is generally above average.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Light northwest wind
become southerly late day. Confidence: above average.

Thursday night through Friday...MVFR and brief IFR conditions
will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that move
through the region during this time...probably mainly Friday.
Patchy IFR stratus/fog possible early Friday morning.

Saturday...VFR. west to northwest wind.

Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail across the
waters tonight through Wednesday. A cold front will move across
the waters early Wednesday, so southerly winds today/tonight will
become westerly/northwesterly on Wednesday.

A period of showers and possible thunderstorms will affect the
waters overnight, before dissipating.

Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...winds and seas should remain
below SCA criteria. Although gusty winds are possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms Thursday night or Friday.

RIP CURRENTS...
Wednesday: at this time we are expecting a low risk with an
offshore wind and a southeast or east southeast swell of 2 to 2.5
feet at about 5 to 7 seconds.

Thereafter, the rip current risk will be low to possibly moderate
at times during the balance of this week through the weekend, in
part dependent on the amount of onshore wind. In other words, not
much change from the somewhat active month of June. AWARENESS:
weak swimmers for their own safety should swim only in the
presence of lifeguards. It is not worth being a rip current victim
by swimming near jetties, or after the lifeguards go home, or with
untrained weak swimming bystanders who wont be capable of saving a
distressed swimmer, except to call 911, which then could be too
late.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...Drag/Iovino
Marine...Drag/Robertson




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290133
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
933 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A couple small showers riding the edge of a weak shortwave
embedded in the flow as seen in latest WV imagery will be east of
the ridges shortly with dry conditions the remainder of the night
as high pressure builds in. Cold advection out of the north
overnight will help bring lower levels close to saturation and
increase stratus development with the greatest cloud coverage
primarily north of Pittsburgh. Cloud coverage will scatter out
through the morning with plenty of sunshine and temperatures
several degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild high pressure will dominate through Thursday, with
temperatures just under or near the seasonal averages. A weak
front will return low chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level pattern looks seasonable and dry through the July 4th
weekend and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through tonight, with the
exception of BKN MVFR CIGS in stratus for a time across the
northern ports in cold advection. Stratus across the rest of the
terminals will be unlikely due to lack of moisture.

High pressure will keep categories at VFR for Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible with a Friday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290124
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
924 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move slowly across the region this evening. High
pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold
frontal system will approach for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Between the loss of heating and the low level convergence line
shifting east, convection is winding down quickly as of 9pm. We
have canceled the watch and what`s left on the radar should
continue to diminish.

Skies across much of the central ridge and valley region should
turn clear to partly cloudy with patchy valley fog possible after
midnight.

Min temps early Wednesday will range from around 50F across the nw
mtns...to the lower and mid 60s in the far SE where dewpoints
don`t get below 60F and a little wind will likely trim the temp
fall there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday looks stellar for late June in most places across
central and southern PA. Afternoon high temps will be near normal
and a partly to mostly sunny sky after any morning low
clouds/patchy fog burn off.

Just a little wind from the NW (gusting into the mid teens)
with the 6mb gradient across the state. With respect to the
potential for any showers...700 mb temps dip near 0C are noted
across the northern mtns during the afternoon hours with a fairly
distinct CFA near the axis of steepest mid level lapse rates of
6.5C/KM. Showers should be isolated with rainfall under one tenth
of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected at TAF sites across the western half of PA...while
scattered to numerous showers (and isolated to scattered TSRA)
will bring brief MVFR (and possibly very brief IFR) conditions to
areas near and to the east of a KIPT to KSEG and KTHV line.

The convection will slide east twd the Poconos early this
evening. After this evening...most of the week looks to be
dry...with mainly VFR conditions...as a drier airmass works into
the area.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...Early morning fog possible east. Isolated afternoon showers
possible mainly to the north of Interstate 80.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




000
FXUS61 KCTP 290124
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
924 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will move slowly across the region this evening. High
pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather with
comfortable humidity for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold
frontal system will approach for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Between the loss of heating and the low level convergence line
shifting east, convection is winding down quickly as of 9pm. We
have canceled the watch and what`s left on the radar should
continue to diminish.

Skies across much of the central ridge and valley region should
turn clear to partly cloudy with patchy valley fog possible after
midnight.

Min temps early Wednesday will range from around 50F across the nw
mtns...to the lower and mid 60s in the far SE where dewpoints
don`t get below 60F and a little wind will likely trim the temp
fall there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday looks stellar for late June in most places across
central and southern PA. Afternoon high temps will be near normal
and a partly to mostly sunny sky after any morning low
clouds/patchy fog burn off.

Just a little wind from the NW (gusting into the mid teens)
with the 6mb gradient across the state. With respect to the
potential for any showers...700 mb temps dip near 0C are noted
across the northern mtns during the afternoon hours with a fairly
distinct CFA near the axis of steepest mid level lapse rates of
6.5C/KM. Showers should be isolated with rainfall under one tenth
of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mean upper trough over the Northeastern CONUS loses amplitude
through the period, as a closed 500mb low dropping southward near
James Bay shifts eastward and a subtropical ridge off the Southeast
coast retrogrades slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The
large scale pattern will have a decidedly summertime look to it
as we turn the calendar page to the month of July, with the main
belt of polar westerlies located along the U.S./Canadian border
and expansive upper ridge covering the southern 1/2 of the Lower
48.

While much of central PA could use some rain, odds are that most
of the period will be a dry one. A frontal system moving through
the area on Friday will likely provide the only opportunity for
rain (scattered showers/T-storms) until the second half of next
week /beyond July 6th/. The upside to this will be a seasonably
warm and dry period expected to last through Independence Day
with seasonal temperatures and tolerable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected at TAF sites across the western half of PA...while
scattered to numerous showers (and isolated to scattered TSRA)
will bring brief MVFR (and possibly very brief IFR) conditions to
areas near and to the east of a KIPT to KSEG and KTHV line.

The convection will slide east twd the Poconos early this
evening. After this evening...most of the week looks to be
dry...with mainly VFR conditions...as a drier airmass works into
the area.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...Early morning fog possible east. Isolated afternoon showers
possible mainly to the north of Interstate 80.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Isold PM tsra impacts possible.

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert




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