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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT WITH TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOST OF THE NIGHT. RISK FOR STORMS WILL REEMERGE SUNDAY WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT  THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT WITH TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOST OF THE NIGHT. RISK FOR STORMS WILL REEMERGE SUNDAY WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT  THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 020742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF
LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP START TO THE DAY TODAY, WITH A POSSIBLE END TO THE
RAIN, OR AT LEAST LESS COVERAGE, BY MID- MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS SLIDING TOWARD THE
AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
THEN ENTER INTO A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY FOR MANY AREAS, AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THE FACT THAT THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. IF WE STAY MORE
CLOUDY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS, IT WILL END UP BEING A COOL DAY.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO GET SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST, THEN WE COULD WARM UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE; MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WHICH LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ROUND 2, DING DING. NOT MUCH OF AN OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FROM THIS PAST NIGHT TO THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS, AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE VORT MAX AND THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE AN
AREA OF RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE;
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE
NEW WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE POSSIBLY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND
THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OUT TO
SEA BY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING NEAR
THE COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER,
THE THUNDER SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BEING THAT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BIT OF DRYING TO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
DRYING ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING
EXCESSIVELY WARM. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
80S DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE RAIN ENDS BY
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR
AND/OR IFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, BUT
COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
MARINE ZONES, FROM LITTLE EGG NORTH. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WILL
STILL BE GUSTY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 020742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF
LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP START TO THE DAY TODAY, WITH A POSSIBLE END TO THE
RAIN, OR AT LEAST LESS COVERAGE, BY MID- MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS SLIDING TOWARD THE
AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
THEN ENTER INTO A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY FOR MANY AREAS, AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THE FACT THAT THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. IF WE STAY MORE
CLOUDY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS, IT WILL END UP BEING A COOL DAY.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO GET SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST, THEN WE COULD WARM UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE; MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WHICH LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ROUND 2, DING DING. NOT MUCH OF AN OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FROM THIS PAST NIGHT TO THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS, AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE VORT MAX AND THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE AN
AREA OF RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE;
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE
NEW WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE POSSIBLY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND
THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OUT TO
SEA BY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING NEAR
THE COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER,
THE THUNDER SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BEING THAT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BIT OF DRYING TO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
DRYING ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING
EXCESSIVELY WARM. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
80S DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE RAIN ENDS BY
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR
AND/OR IFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, BUT
COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
MARINE ZONES, FROM LITTLE EGG NORTH. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WILL
STILL BE GUSTY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 020742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF
LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP START TO THE DAY TODAY, WITH A POSSIBLE END TO THE
RAIN, OR AT LEAST LESS COVERAGE, BY MID- MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS SLIDING TOWARD THE
AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
THEN ENTER INTO A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY FOR MANY AREAS, AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THE FACT THAT THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. IF WE STAY MORE
CLOUDY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS, IT WILL END UP BEING A COOL DAY.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO GET SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST, THEN WE COULD WARM UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE; MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WHICH LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ROUND 2, DING DING. NOT MUCH OF AN OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FROM THIS PAST NIGHT TO THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS, AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE VORT MAX AND THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE AN
AREA OF RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE;
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE
NEW WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE POSSIBLY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND
THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OUT TO
SEA BY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING NEAR
THE COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER,
THE THUNDER SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BEING THAT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BIT OF DRYING TO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
DRYING ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING
EXCESSIVELY WARM. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
80S DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE RAIN ENDS BY
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR
AND/OR IFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, BUT
COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
MARINE ZONES, FROM LITTLE EGG NORTH. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WILL
STILL BE GUSTY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 020742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WATERS OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF
LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP START TO THE DAY TODAY, WITH A POSSIBLE END TO THE
RAIN, OR AT LEAST LESS COVERAGE, BY MID- MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS SLIDING TOWARD THE
AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO HAS CREATED AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD
THEN ENTER INTO A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY FOR MANY AREAS, AND WE MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THE FACT THAT THE FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE AREA, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FORECAST, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE DAY, SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. IF WE STAY MORE
CLOUDY AS THE NAM SUGGESTS, IT WILL END UP BEING A COOL DAY.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO GET SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST, THEN WE COULD WARM UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE; MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WHICH LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ROUND 2, DING DING. NOT MUCH OF AN OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
FROM THIS PAST NIGHT TO THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS, AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE VORT MAX AND THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE AN
AREA OF RAINFALL THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE;
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE
NEW WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE POSSIBLY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND
THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING SHUNTED OUT TO
SEA BY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING NEAR
THE COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER. HOWEVER,
THE THUNDER SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BEING THAT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BIT OF DRYING TO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
DRYING ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING
EXCESSIVELY WARM. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
80S DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH SUNRISE AS
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE RAIN ENDS BY
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR
AND/OR IFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, BUT
COULD VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
MARINE ZONES, FROM LITTLE EGG NORTH. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WILL
STILL BE GUSTY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY AFFECT THE
COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO





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000
FXUS61 KCTP 020717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT 06Z AT KBFD AND KLNS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF CWA...HOWEVER BROADER AREA
OF SHOWERS SLOWLY CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
KLNS AND KMDT AREAS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS /THOUGH STEADIER
PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST/.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT 06Z AT KBFD AND KLNS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MINIMAL OVER MUCH OF CWA...HOWEVER BROADER AREA
OF SHOWERS SLOWLY CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
KLNS AND KMDT AREAS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS /THOUGH STEADIER
PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST/.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020608 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF AS CLOUD DECK HAS EXPANDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN
OVERALL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN RAMP UP ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT  THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020608 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF AS CLOUD DECK HAS EXPANDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN
OVERALL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN RAMP UP ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED VISIBILITIES IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR FKL AND DUJ AS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HOW FALL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY
WIDE. MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT  THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 020546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVIEST RETURNS STILL TO SE OF CWA THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF MOISTURE PLUME OVER FRANKLIN
AND FULTON COUNTIES. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NW COUNTIES HAS
MOVED INTO NYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF AS CLOUD DECK HAS EXPANDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN
OVERALL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN RAMP UP ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHERN HALF AS CLOUD DECK HAS EXPANDED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH 500H TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
OHIO TODAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A SLOW MOVING SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CLOSE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
MY FORECAST AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AS ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS VERY WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN
OVERALL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP AS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN RAMP UP ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY.

END TO PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.

IMPROVEMENT MONDAY WITH A DRY DAY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 020321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.

PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.

THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 020321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.

PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.

THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR
VSBYS NOW AT KBFD AND KLNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS NOW CREEPING UP FROM VA/MD...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNS AND
KMDT AREAS AFTER 06Z.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS IN THE EAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...THEN EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALSO TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.

PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.

THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE...JUST A MINOR TWEAK DOWNWARD TO POPS IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION IN THE NORTH IS SLIDING
TO THE NORTH. SERN SHOWERS ALMOST NIL AT THIS POINT. BUT THE MAIN
SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH SHARPENING SFC TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE INTO
THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN
LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THERE. NWRN
LIMIT OF THE RAIN IS SUSPECT AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF AOO AND UNV. TEMPS ALMOST DOWN TO
DEWPOINTS...SO SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE PLACES IT RAINED EARLIER.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT/ON-TRACK.

PREVIOUS...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.

THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND
AND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE 06Z TIME-
FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC BY
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE HRRR AND RAP SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A CUTOFF
NORTHWEST OF PHL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS.
THE 18Z NAM IS NOT VERIFYING WELL DOWNSTREAM BUT THE 18Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF CORRECT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WPC AND SREF QPF SETS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z GFS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ERADICATED FROM OUR ENVIRONS...AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WAXED AND WANED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CLING TO LIFE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WESTWARD TRUDGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOSEYED ALL
THE WAY TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA/OHIO BORDER AT THIS HOUR. AS THE
SUN HAS ALREADY BID US ADIEU THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE FROM ITS ALREADY PALTRY LEVELS...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT BEST ISOLATED. POPS WERE
SUMMARILY WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A
RESULT. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS TOWARD MORNING OVER THE
RIDGE AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT SEEM TO BE POISED
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ERADICATED FROM OUR ENVIRONS...AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WAXED AND WANED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CLING TO LIFE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WESTWARD TRUDGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOSEYED ALL
THE WAY TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA/OHIO BORDER AT THIS HOUR. AS THE
SUN HAS ALREADY BID US ADIEU THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE FROM ITS ALREADY PALTRY LEVELS...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT BEST ISOLATED. POPS WERE
SUMMARILY WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A
RESULT. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS TOWARD MORNING OVER THE
RIDGE AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT SEEM TO BE POISED
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020059
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ERADICATED FROM OUR ENVIRONS...AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WAXED AND WANED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CLING TO LIFE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WESTWARD TRUDGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOSEYED ALL
THE WAY TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA/OHIO BORDER AT THIS HOUR. AS THE
SUN HAS ALREADY BID US ADIEU THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE FROM ITS ALREADY PALTRY LEVELS...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT BEST ISOLATED. POPS WERE
SUMMARILY WOUND DOWN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A
RESULT. THE LONG EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS TOWARD MORNING OVER THE
RIDGE AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT SEEM TO BE POISED
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 020030
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
830 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST...OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. CHANCES OF ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE EAST IS GONE...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
FORMING NOW UP OVER THE NWRN MTS IN A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO
TIDIOUTE. THIS IS RIGHT WHERE THE NAM FROM 18Z MADE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. SO...IT HAS MY CONFIDENCE THERE. THE NAM DOES NOT
QUITE HAVE ANY CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING INTO THE
OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR LANCASTER/YORK COS AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES BUBBLE CONVECTION UP FROM THE SE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...LIKE THE NARRE AS WAS NOTED BY THE PREV SHIFT.

THE CURRENT RAP SLIDES THE PRECIP IN THE NW TO THE SOUTH - OR VERY
MUCH OPPOSITE THE FLOW AND THE NAM PREDICTION. IT COULD BE THAT
CONVECTION DIES IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL TOWERS POP UP TO THE
SOUTH. BUT I AM SUSPICIOUS THAT WILL BE THE CASE. SO WILL ADJUST
THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WEIGHT TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION FOR THE NEAR TERM. POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW
OVER THE SE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT THERE AS IT SEEMS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT FLOW AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL. TEMPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM. LOWER POPS
TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE
OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONE/S
POSITION VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER IN SW
MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT A RELATIVELY DRY
MORNING AFTER 7-8AM IN THE EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POP
UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
ITSELF THIS EVENING...AS WEAK SHEAR IS FAILING TO EVACUATE ENOUGH
MASS FROM THE COLUMN TO ASSIST IN CONSISTENT UPDRAFT FORMATION
BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION BECOMES AFFECTED BY SPREADING COLD POOLS
BELOW STORMS. EARLIER COLLAPSING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
AND RIDGES HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE WHAT IS NOW A COHERENT OUTFLOW
STRUCTURE EMANATING WESTWARD FROM THE COMBINED COLD POOL INTO AN
ARC FROM ROUGHLY KITTANNING TO PITTSBURGH TO FAIRMONT AT THIS
HOUR. INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION IS MANAGING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
SAID COLD POOL AND THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO ITS
WEST...HOWEVER HERE AGAIN...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD POOL TO THE
WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE CONTINUED UPDRAFT FORMATION OF
THESE NEW CELLS. AS A RESULT...JUST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH
IN THE CWA AS THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
ITSELF THIS EVENING...AS WEAK SHEAR IS FAILING TO EVACUATE ENOUGH
MASS FROM THE COLUMN TO ASSIST IN CONSISTENT UPDRAFT FORMATION
BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION BECOMES AFFECTED BY SPREADING COLD POOLS
BELOW STORMS. EARLIER COLLAPSING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
AND RIDGES HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE WHAT IS NOW A COHERENT OUTFLOW
STRUCTURE EMANATING WESTWARD FROM THE COMBINED COLD POOL INTO AN
ARC FROM ROUGHLY KITTANNING TO PITTSBURGH TO FAIRMONT AT THIS
HOUR. INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION IS MANAGING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
SAID COLD POOL AND THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO ITS
WEST...HOWEVER HERE AGAIN...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD POOL TO THE
WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE CONTINUED UPDRAFT FORMATION OF
THESE NEW CELLS. AS A RESULT...JUST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH
IN THE CWA AS THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND DUJ APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY SITE LEFT THAT
COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY TAF SITE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE IN LATE NIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY A SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD
OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MORE THAN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES
TO 2-3 MILES...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VISIBILITIES...AND NOT
BOTTOM OUT THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPS. AS FOR SATURDAY...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO KEEP VCTS MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
REPLACED IT WITH VCSH MENTION. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 012358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
758 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 012358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
758 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING,
SO TOOK OUT ANY TEMPO GROUPS. WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AND SOME SHOWERS/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO LAST
TO AROUND 16-18Z ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AT KABE AND KRDG SO A LOWER SCT CLOUD DECK WAS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE CEILINGS ARE MORE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO VFR. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KMIV AND
KACY SO CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO THRESHOLD OF MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 012224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 012224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE DID INCREASE POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST 21-22Z METAR OBS
AND THE LAV GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION AROUND THE
06Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME- FRAME, AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH
THE NAM SHOWING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
538 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
ITSELF THIS EVENING...AS WEAK SHEAR IS FAILING TO EVACUATE ENOUGH
MASS FROM THE COLUMN TO ASSIST IN CONSISTENT UPDRAFT FORMATION
BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION BECOMES AFFECTED BY SPREADING COLD POOLS
BELOW STORMS. EARLIER COLLAPSING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
AND RIDGES HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE WHAT IS NOW A COHERENT OUTFLOW
STRUCTURE EMANATING WESTWARD FROM THE COMBINED COLD POOL INTO AN
ARC FROM ROUGHLY KITTANNING TO PITTSBURGH TO FAIRMONT AT THIS
HOUR. INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION IS MANAGING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
SAID COLD POOL AND THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO ITS
WEST...HOWEVER HERE AGAIN...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD POOL TO THE
WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE CONTINUED UPDRAFT FORMATION OF
THESE NEW CELLS. AS A RESULT...JUST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH
IN THE CWA AS THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AWAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF DROP TO IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS HIT. ELECTED TO KEEP VCTS MENTION AS ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND HARD TO TIME. WENT WITH MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT AT WORST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LOCATION GETS CLEARING AND THUS IFR LATE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT VCTS ENTERS THE PICTURE
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
538 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
ITSELF THIS EVENING...AS WEAK SHEAR IS FAILING TO EVACUATE ENOUGH
MASS FROM THE COLUMN TO ASSIST IN CONSISTENT UPDRAFT FORMATION
BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION BECOMES AFFECTED BY SPREADING COLD POOLS
BELOW STORMS. EARLIER COLLAPSING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
AND RIDGES HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE WHAT IS NOW A COHERENT OUTFLOW
STRUCTURE EMANATING WESTWARD FROM THE COMBINED COLD POOL INTO AN
ARC FROM ROUGHLY KITTANNING TO PITTSBURGH TO FAIRMONT AT THIS
HOUR. INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION IS MANAGING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
SAID COLD POOL AND THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO ITS
WEST...HOWEVER HERE AGAIN...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD POOL TO THE
WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE CONTINUED UPDRAFT FORMATION OF
THESE NEW CELLS. AS A RESULT...JUST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH
IN THE CWA AS THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AWAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF DROP TO IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS HIT. ELECTED TO KEEP VCTS MENTION AS ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND HARD TO TIME. WENT WITH MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT AT WORST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LOCATION GETS CLEARING AND THUS IFR LATE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT VCTS ENTERS THE PICTURE
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 012122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012122
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT SOME AREAS LIKELY SEEING
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TAF SITE WHICH LOOKS
IMMINENT TO SEE A SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IS KIPT...AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THEIR TAF.

FOR THE MOST PART...DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM / HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT
REGENERATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...LOOK FOR FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR...THEN MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WED...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM/JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012012
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE NWRN EDGE OF THE EXTENSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNE FROM THE ERN GOMEX AND WRN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...AND
PERIODS OF WEAK-MDT LARGE SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
WAVES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIDING NEWD...WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NOCTURAL SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON TSRA
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE /AND POTENT SFC CFRONT/ DROPPING SE ACROSS
THE GLAKES. A SECONDARY CFRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /EVEN AHEAD OF THE 2 CFRONTS/.
HOWEVER...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 6.5C/KM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSRA. A FEW OF THE TSRA EACH AFTERNOON COULD BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AOB 15 KTS...SO THE
CFROPAS BOTH DAYS DON/T APPEAR TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT...CONVECTIVE
WIND THREAT ATTM.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/BENEATH BROAD WESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE MIDWEST AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAY PERIOD OF PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

A BLEND OF GEFS...GFS...AND EC GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AFTER A NEAR PERFECT MATCH OF MONTHLY AVG HIGH AND LOW TEMPS TO
NORMAL AT KMDT AND KIPT IN JULY...MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD DON/T APPEAR TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NORMAL.
THE WARMEST TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CFRONT
AS A DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LLVL COMPONENT KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ. THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE 06Z TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT AND SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY. LIKELY POPS ARE THEN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND THE DELMARVA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ. THIS SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE 06Z TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST FROM THE
ATLANTIC BY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME-FRAME, AND WE HAVE KEPT THE
IDEA OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
OFFSHORE OR MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME
HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.
AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS.

FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX ALONG WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. OVERALL, WE TOOK A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FOCUSED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST POPS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES AND OFFSHORE. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER, AND FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF MOST AREAS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES,
WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE, AS THE MET GUIDANCE
OVERALL LOOKED A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL BE A
BELOW AVERAGE DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND A CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. OCNL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE N/W LATER TUESDAY.

SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LEADING TO QUICKER
WEATHER CHANGES LATER NEXT WEEK. FAIR WEATHER THU...THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
MON NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS, WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU WED...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. SCT TSTMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
HOWEVER.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 011835
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011835
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH SURGES TO THE EAST OUR REGION WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IS FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST.
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED RAIN WILL BE GREATER IN THE EAST AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY. THE NARRE SHOWS
GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMPLIED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING. IT HAS A WEAKER BAND TO
OUR NW WHICH HAS NOT APPEARED ON RADAR...YET. IT IS MUCH WEAKER.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE FLOW BETWEEN THE 500 HPA TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE 500 HPA
RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE EAST. THE NARRE IMPLIES THIS SHOWING
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN/RADAR RETURNS SURGING NORTHWARD FROM
VA/MD/DE IMPLYING IT COULD REACH SE PA OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO HAS SOME
MODEST RETURNS OVER SE PA AT 03Z.

THE NARRE 3HR QPF SHOWS 60-70 POPS IN SE BY AFTER 0000 UTC AND
SURGING AREA HAS 100 PERCENT. THIS IS OF COURSE AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION NOT A MOS-LIKE PROBABILITY. THE
4KM NAM...USED IN THE NARRE...IMPLIES THAT THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
ZIP THROUGH SE PA BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.

MESSAGE...COULD BE SURGE OF RAIN/THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN SE PA.

NAM-GFS-SREF SUGGEST HIGHER POPS IN EAST SATURDAY AM AND MORE
LINGER CLOUDS. LOWER POPS TO WEST THOUGH IMPLIED QPF SHIELDS SHOW
A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH A ZONE OF VERY LOW POPS EXTENDING FROM NY INTO
PA. BUT THIS DRY ZONES POSITION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. THE NAM IS
MUCH DRIER IN SW MOUNTAINS THAN GFS.

DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY KEPT POPS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SW MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
4KM NAM IMPLIES PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REGION AROUND 8 AM AND
NOTHING OF NOTE CONVECTIVELY UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN IT SHOWS
LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST IN WEST-
CENTRAL.

MESSAGE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY MORNING
AFTER 7-8AM IN EAST THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A LINE
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...FROM TUCKER COUNTY SW TO EKN AND CRW. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS.  RAP/MDCRS DATA
IS HINTING AT A MIDLEVEL CAP THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOST OF CWA. CAP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME EARLIER IN THE EAST
THAN THE WEST...SO TAILORED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH A TOUCH OF
COOLING ALOFT AFTER SUNSET...SHRA COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
FOR A FEW HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. A
LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN COVERAGE MAY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AS OUTSKIRTS OF H500 WAVE APPROACH.

BLENDED PREVIOUS LOW TEMPS WITH MET NUMBERS AND TWEAKED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AWAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF DROP TO IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS HIT. ELECTED TO KEEP VCTS MENTION AS ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND HARD TO TIME. WENT WITH MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT AT WORST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LOCATION GETS CLEARING AND THUS IFR LATE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT VCTS ENTERS THE PICTURE
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A LINE
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...FROM TUCKER COUNTY SW TO EKN AND CRW. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS.  RAP/MDCRS DATA
IS HINTING AT A MIDLEVEL CAP THAT IS SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOST OF CWA. CAP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME EARLIER IN THE EAST
THAN THE WEST...SO TAILORED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH A TOUCH OF
COOLING ALOFT AFTER SUNSET...SHRA COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE
FOR A FEW HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. A
LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN COVERAGE MAY START TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST AS OUTSKIRTS OF H500 WAVE APPROACH.

BLENDED PREVIOUS LOW TEMPS WITH MET NUMBERS AND TWEAKED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE IT`S APPROACH
LATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED BY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT. ACTUALLY
QUESTION THE EXTENT OF THUNDER AS CLOUD COVER COULD FURTHER LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES...SO
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT IN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MEX/MET VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE LONG TERM...SHIFTING EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED. AFTER THIS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CHANCES LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AWAY FROM ANY
SHRA/TSRA...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF DROP TO IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS HIT. ELECTED TO KEEP VCTS MENTION AS ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND HARD TO TIME. WENT WITH MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT AT WORST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LOCATION GETS CLEARING AND THUS IFR LATE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT VCTS ENTERS THE PICTURE
AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011816
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR EITHER SHRA OR
TSRA COVERING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME TO BEST
REFLECT THE POSSIBLE TIMING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, MOST CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTORM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
THEREAFTER, WE EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
EVENING AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WANES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND MAINLY
IN THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIP, WE
DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KACY/KMIV AND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A CHANCE FOR
KABE/KRDG.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TOWARD AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, REMAINING
MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KCTP 011738
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF
AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA.

SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF
LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.

GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD
NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN
WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011738
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN LINE FROM ADAMS
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. CELLS ALONG
THE TWO APPARENT LINES ARE LUMBERING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY SHOULD
AFFECT DAUPHIN COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

RADAR IS QUITE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
IN SOMERSET COUNTY ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD CAMBRIA COUNTY. AN AREA TO WATCH.

POPS WILL BE HIGHER CLEARLY OVER SOUTHEAST SLIGHT LOWER IN
SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE NORTH TODAY.

LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THIS EVENING.

THE FOG AREAS BURNED OFF AND HAVE LEFT AREAS OF HAZY SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF
AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA.

SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF
LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.

GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD
NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN
WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AFTERNOON TAFS SENT. RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEST AND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF KMDT WHICH MAY GO MVFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. PUT VCTS IN
KLNS THOUGH INITIAL STORMS ARE TO THE NW AND FARTHER EAST. BUT
THIS AREA COULD FILL IN. FLYING IN THE KTHV-KCXY-KMDT-KSEG-KLNS
CORRIDOR EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAINLY AREAS OF HAZE WITH VFR AND SOME
MVFR. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TO NORTH AND WEST.
KJST DOES HAVE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLYING IN SOUTHERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON...CHECK RADAR FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

PATCHY FOG AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR. COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST ARE NOT FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ALL TOO FAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...AM MVFR/IFR..MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...
12PM UPDATE...SHRA STARTING TO FIRE IN/NEAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
CWA...AIDED BY APPROACHING HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS AND SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BUILD FURTHER WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE ON TIMING
PER LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS. DUE TO THIS DELAY...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE A BIT FURTHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE RAISED
THEM BY A DEGREE OR TWO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...
12PM UPDATE...SHRA STARTING TO FIRE IN/NEAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
CWA...AIDED BY APPROACHING HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS AND SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BUILD FURTHER WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT MORE ON TIMING
PER LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS. DUE TO THIS DELAY...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RISE A BIT FURTHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE RAISED
THEM BY A DEGREE OR TWO PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 011450
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BANDS OF CIRRUS OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PA AS
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FOCUSED
CLOSE TO WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE.

FOG IN SOME VALLEYS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN
GUIDANCE TO BREAK UP. BUT THEN AGAIN...BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOW PUSH A BIT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SO KEPT HIGHER POPS...LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. NO POPS
OF NOTE IN NW TODAY AND CHANCE IN CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTED ARE NUDGING DOWN IN CENTRAL
AREAS AS THE SUN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. DESPITE THE
CIRRUS...QUITE WARM ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP KEPT CHANCE IN AREAS OF HIGH POPS
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. THE SREF AND NARRE APPEAR TO SHOW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTSMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS STATE
COLLEGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF
AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA.

SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF
LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.

GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD
NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN
WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN CENTRAL AREAS HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF.
MOSTLY CLEAR IN WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOW
TO GET CLOUDY TODAY. SOUTHEAST HAS MAINLY VFR AS THE CLOUDS ARE
QUITE HIGH AND THIN.

CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST AREAS. MVFR AREAS WILL EXPAND. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL SEE EXPANSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT THE CLOUDS AND MVFR AREAS EXPAND. GOOD SET UP FOR MORE
FOG AND AREAS OF IFR ISOLATED LIFR.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011450
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BANDS OF CIRRUS OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PA AS
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FOCUSED
CLOSE TO WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE.

FOG IN SOME VALLEYS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN
GUIDANCE TO BREAK UP. BUT THEN AGAIN...BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOW PUSH A BIT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SO KEPT HIGHER POPS...LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. NO POPS
OF NOTE IN NW TODAY AND CHANCE IN CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTED ARE NUDGING DOWN IN CENTRAL
AREAS AS THE SUN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. DESPITE THE
CIRRUS...QUITE WARM ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP KEPT CHANCE IN AREAS OF HIGH POPS
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. THE SREF AND NARRE APPEAR TO SHOW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTSMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS STATE
COLLEGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF
AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA.

SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF
LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.

GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD
NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN
WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN CENTRAL AREAS HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF.
MOSTLY CLEAR IN WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOW
TO GET CLOUDY TODAY. SOUTHEAST HAS MAINLY VFR AS THE CLOUDS ARE
QUITE HIGH AND THIN.

CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST AREAS. MVFR AREAS WILL EXPAND. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL SEE EXPANSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT THE CLOUDS AND MVFR AREAS EXPAND. GOOD SET UP FOR MORE
FOG AND AREAS OF IFR ISOLATED LIFR.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011425
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BY TWO TO
THREE DEGREES USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS, AND TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WE DID ADJUST POPS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA ZONES, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. WE ALSO
CONFINED ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN
AREA OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO
MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT
FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO,
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. THUS,
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD;
ALTHOUGH, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE STILL LINGERING FOR OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES, NAMELY KABE AND KRDG. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS FOR
THESE SITES BY AROUND 16Z. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA
INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING, AND AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS AS ANY
OCCURENCE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN,
KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011313
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...PUSHED OFF ONSET OF PRECIP A COUPLE OF HOURS PER
RADAR TRENDS. STILL FORESEE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AROUND 18Z...WITH POPUP SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST DEVELOPING
AS WELL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES.  HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011313
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...PUSHED OFF ONSET OF PRECIP A COUPLE OF HOURS PER
RADAR TRENDS. STILL FORESEE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AROUND 18Z...WITH POPUP SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST DEVELOPING
AS WELL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES.  HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 011210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD BURN
OFF THIS MORNING. THE NCEP NARRE SUGGESTS THE TIMING FOR IS 9 TO
10 AM...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST THE EASTERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE STREAM WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN AN LOWER CEILINGS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE VISIBILITY AND FOG
BURN OFF FASTER.

THE MODELS SHOW DEEPENING MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND THE NARRE
ENSEMBLE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PA AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWLY
PULLED POPS NORTH IN GRIDS KEEPING LOWEST IN NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

THE MARINE/MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CAPE SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE EASTER HALF OF THE REGION POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS AND MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IMPLIES
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE A BIT OPTIMISTIC TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
RAIN HIGHER IN SOUTH/SOUTH EAST AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THESE
EVENING AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
STAY TO OUR EAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.

AT THIS TIME...CAPE FORECASTS APPEAR LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN EAST IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. KEPT MOST POPS IN CHANCE RANGE AND KEPT IT
CLOUDY.

RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RETREATING ANTICYCLONE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN CAN BE
KIND OF UGLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA DUE TO FOG...WITH A STRIPE
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY DIPPING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MVFR TO SOME VFR. IN MOST AREAS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR...THOUGH IN THICKER FOG /LIKE KUNV-
KFIG/ IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER LIKE 14Z FOR VFR TO AGAIN
PREVAIL.

AS STUBBORN TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SHRA INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
NO THUNDER MENTIONED THIS FAR OUT.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF CWA. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN A STRIPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PROTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CLEARFIELD COUNTY THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY EASTWARD TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS TO REMIND
MORNING COMMUTERS TO BE AWARE OF CHANGING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LOOKING AT A BRIEF LULL BEFORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY JET CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VA LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS...TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
QUARTER WITH LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAKES IT...BUT WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ON THE SE COUNTIES.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA DUE TO FOG...WITH A STRIPE
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY DIPPING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MVFR TO SOME VFR. IN MOST AREAS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR...THOUGH IN THICKER FOG /LIKE KUNV-
KFIG/ IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER LIKE 14Z FOR VFR TO AGAIN
PREVAIL.

AS STUBBORN TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SHRA INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
NO THUNDER MENTIONED THIS FAR OUT.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
756 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF CWA. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN A STRIPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PROTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CLEARFIELD COUNTY THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY EASTWARD TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS TO REMIND
MORNING COMMUTERS TO BE AWARE OF CHANGING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LOOKING AT A BRIEF LULL BEFORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY JET CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VA LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS...TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
QUARTER WITH LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAKES IT...BUT WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ON THE SE COUNTIES.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA DUE TO FOG...WITH A STRIPE
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY DIPPING TO IFR.
ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MVFR TO SOME VFR. IN MOST AREAS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR...THOUGH IN THICKER FOG /LIKE KUNV-
KFIG/ IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER LIKE 14Z FOR VFR TO AGAIN
PREVAIL.

AS STUBBORN TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SHRA INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
NO THUNDER MENTIONED THIS FAR OUT.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG LINGERING THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATES NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7 FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
TERMINALS COULD DROP INTO IFR RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 14Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, KPNE AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND
TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA INCREASES.
THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, KPNE AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND
TSRA. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR SHRA INCREASES.
THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT EXPECT THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN
00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, INCLUDING KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TODAY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KCTP 010849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF CWA. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN A STRIPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PROTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CLEARFIELD COUNTY THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY EASTWARD TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS TO REMIND
MORNING COMMUTERS TO BE AWARE OF CHANGING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LOOKING AT A BRIEF LULL BEFORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY JET CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VA LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS...TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
QUARTER WITH LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAKES IT...BUT WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ON THE SE COUNTIES.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010849
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF CWA. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN A STRIPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PROTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CLEARFIELD COUNTY THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY EASTWARD TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS TO REMIND
MORNING COMMUTERS TO BE AWARE OF CHANGING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LOOKING AT A BRIEF LULL BEFORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY JET CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VA LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS...TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
QUARTER WITH LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAKES IT...BUT WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ON THE SE COUNTIES.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010813
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
STILL EVIDENT IN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BUT ATTM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY AS MOISTURE DECREASES
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PWATS DROP BACK BELOW ONE INCH.
THIS HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. MINIMAL
CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY ON DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE DEPTH OF THE FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND
ALSO SHOW MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN PROGGING THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. LEFT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST IN
PLAY CALLING FOR SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE DAY OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS SOON AS A
TREND IS ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. FIRST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF MOSTLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AN UPPER LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE REGION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, AT LEAST AT FIRST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM EVEN
SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THAT THE NAM
IS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND THUS TOO
HIGH ON THE INSTABILITY. ALSO, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, FURTHER LIMITING
INSTABILITY. THUS, THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ASPECT, WITH ML CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY, A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WILL MEAN
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE IS ON PAR WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY PART OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND, IS STILL VIEWED AS AN AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE, INLAND, AS THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER IMPULSES AND COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTERACTION OCCURS.

SATURDAY...STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSENSUS, THOUGH STILL NOT
GREAT, AND ACCORDING TO THE 01/00Z DATA THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS HAVE JUMPED
MORE TOWARDS THE NCEP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WAVES MORE OFFSHORE...EC INCLUDED. THE GEFS
HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS CONFIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND AT
MORESO AT THE SURFACE. PWATS INCREASE UPWARDS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GREATER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE PASSING WAVES TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S IN A LOT OF PLACES WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND
EASTERLY FLOW. THE METMOS SEEMED TOO LOW, AS IT USUALLY GOES CRAZY
WITH STRATUS WHEN RAIN IS FORECASTED. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO COULD EASILY BOOST SOME LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW-80S.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRIER PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY BEFORE A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE NEARS FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS IS THE KICKER VORT LOBE. COLD POOL
INTERACTION ALOFT AND MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AGAIN, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO THE REGION SO WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE NJ COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS.

MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES, OR
LACK THEREOF, MONDAY COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. EC DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A FEW IMPULSES SHEARING
THROUGH. GEFS PAINTS A PRETTY BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT DID NOT WANT TO CHANGE TOO MUCH
DURING THE TIMEFRAME...CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


TUESDAY - THURSDAY...CONTINUING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS TIMEFRAME. WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR BEST CHANCES AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EVEN MORE AND SHOULD END UP BEING NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY BR THROUGH 15Z, PRIMARILY FOR KMIV, KRDG,
KABE, AND KTTN. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, BUT IF ANY DO MOVE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER 00Z...CHANCE FOR
SHRA INCREASES. THERE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TSRA AFTER SUNSET, BUT
EXPECT THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FOR THE
PERIOD BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z, EXPECT SHRA TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER,
INCLUDING KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHRA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON EACH AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010657
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010657
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN TO DEWPOINT TEMPS GIVING RISE TO PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO AMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROF THIS MORNING. AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRANSLATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES. H85-H7
FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WRINGING OUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE BEFORE IT CAN CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY ABOUT 18Z THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG OUR RIDGES AS NOTED BY
THE LOW H5 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED BY 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS FOR TIMING OF THE LIKELY
POPS ENTERING THE CWA. HI-RES WRF MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
BAND OF QPF MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE BROAD MODELS...THE 00Z
NAM MID-LEVEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE
RIDGES APPROACHING THE ERN OH NEAR 00Z. THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
SHOULD WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS STREAM
IN. 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE LAPSE RATES IN THE -8 TO -10 C/KM
RANGE THROUGH H7. AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHING E TO W...HAVE BOLSTERED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NE OF THE AREA QUICKLY OVERNIGHT USHERED
OUT BY A 50KT H5 JET. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN HEADING INTO SAT AS THE MEAN TROF REMAINS IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING CURRENTLY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME TERMINALS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR
RANGE BRIEFLY...DECIDED TO HANDLE THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH
12Z. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
ANY STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 010600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN COUNTIES AT 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING /KUNV-KIPT/.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010551
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL TRACKING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...MAINLY OVER SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES. IPT PICKED UP
.03 IN FAST MOVING SHOWER RIGHT AFTER MINDNIGHT. PATHY FOG
DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...OVER CLEARFIELD/CENTRE COUNTY AREA...AND
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE LAST FEW SHOWERS
TO END BY 06Z.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALREADY
SEEING SOME MVFR FOG FORMATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE
A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE
A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE
A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST TOTALLY FADED TO JUST A FEW LEFTOVER
SPRINKLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASINGLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME FOG FORMING LATE AT NIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE
A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE ONES LEFT TO THE WEST ARE RUNNING ON FUMES.
THE NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN IS TOWARD MORNING IF PCPN IN THE CAROLINAS
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE SHORT WAVES LOOK VIGOROUS ENOUGH, SO
WHILE WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BASED ON COSPA/HRRR AND RUC TRENDS, WE
DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT LIKELY.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND UPWARD
SOUTHEAST BASED ON CLOUD TREND. CLOUDINESS IS LINED PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER AIR FLOW, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO BACK
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL BE NUDGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MAV/MET ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND
INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE ONES LEFT TO THE WEST ARE RUNNING ON FUMES.
THE NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN IS TOWARD MORNING IF PCPN IN THE CAROLINAS
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. THE SHORT WAVES LOOK VIGOROUS ENOUGH, SO
WHILE WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BASED ON COSPA/HRRR AND RUC TRENDS, WE
DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT LIKELY.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND UPWARD
SOUTHEAST BASED ON CLOUD TREND. CLOUDINESS IS LINED PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER AIR FLOW, SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR IT TO BACK
NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY
WILL BE NUDGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MAV/MET ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND
INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD COMMENCE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THIS SHOULD EVISCERATE INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION...YIELDING A
RATHER TERSE ENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR WESTERN
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE HIGHEST LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE
TEMPERATURES POISED FOR ANOTHER PLUNGE INTO SUB-AVERAGE
TERRITORY.

THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WAS UPDATED TO LIMIT POPS THIS EVENING
AND TREND BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO
BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 312346
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THE EVENING SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 312346
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
MORE RURAL AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, DEBRIS VFR CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN AIRPORTS
ESPECIALLY. NOT AS CONFIDENT FAR NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS WE ARE
PREDICTING SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND
ALSO AT KMIV. IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
ALONG WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES THOUGH
ARE IN DELMARVA AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TH
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THE EVENING SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.

ON FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS (MOST
LIKELY AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL). OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN TODAY, BUT STILL TOO ISOLATED TO
CONFIDENTLY INCLUDE THEM. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10
KTS. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING A CLEAR CUT SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 312334
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. COULD BE
A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
13Z TOMORROW. LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE VCSH WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
714 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN US
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS EVENING APPROACHES...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION. AS YET NO LIGHTNING...BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY FADING AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KEEPS A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SERN AREAS EVEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. DESPITE
THE MENTION OF RAIN...MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NOT BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 312210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING UP ON SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A
GRADUAL OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET
LOWERING IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF TRULY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WE
WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SEA
BREEZE LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPS DROPPING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED ON THE
TOWARD MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE ONCE
COSPA/HRRR HAS BETTER TEMPORAL COVERAGE.

THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST. POPS
WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET
ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING UP ON SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A
GRADUAL OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET
LOWERING IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/VIVOLA
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD COMMENCE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THIS SHOULD EVISCERATE INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION...YIELDING A
RATHER TERSE ENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES
POISED FOR ANOTHER PLUNGE INTO SUB-AVERAGE TERRITORY.

THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WAS UPDATED TO LIMIT POPS THIS EVENING
AND TREND BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO
BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD COMMENCE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THIS SHOULD EVISCERATE INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION...YIELDING A
RATHER TERSE ENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES
POISED FOR ANOTHER PLUNGE INTO SUB-AVERAGE TERRITORY.

THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WAS UPDATED TO LIMIT POPS THIS EVENING
AND TREND BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO
BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD COMMENCE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THIS SHOULD EVISCERATE INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION...YIELDING A
RATHER TERSE ENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES
POISED FOR ANOTHER PLUNGE INTO SUB-AVERAGE TERRITORY.

THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WAS UPDATED TO LIMIT POPS THIS EVENING
AND TREND BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO
BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD COMMENCE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THIS SHOULD EVISCERATE INCIPIENT UPDRAFT FORMATION...YIELDING A
RATHER TERSE ENDING TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. A DRIER COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES
POISED FOR ANOTHER PLUNGE INTO SUB-AVERAGE TERRITORY.

THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT WAS UPDATED TO LIMIT POPS THIS EVENING
AND TREND BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO
BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST.
POPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. ANY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. TOOK OUT ANY GROUPINGS
WITH VCSH IN IT AS THE COVERAGE IS VERY LOCALIZED AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES ATTM. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING
UP ON SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A GRADUAL
OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET LOWERING
IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW
GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE..
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
SHORT TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND A COASTAL FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A DRY ONE, EXCEPT FOR THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST.
POPS WERE LOWERED BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. ANOTHER COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF US, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE NUDGING EVER
SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED THE EVENING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE LATEST METAR OBS AND INCORPORATED THE LATEST LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND AN OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK AND MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID-LEVELS. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY
AGAIN JUST IN TIME FOR AUGUST. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LESSEN
ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHERE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION, AND AROUND
500-800 J/KG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.
WENT A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE MAV/MET FOR TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. NOT SOLD ON THE WETNESS OF
THE NAM/SREF IN TERMS OF QPF, SO WENT RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS
ELEMENT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
WENT FAIRLY LOW WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLOWER TIMING ON ANY RAIN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RGEM/ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE AN IMPROVING PICTURE NEXT WEEK.

A FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS
THE OCEAN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FCST FOR FRI NIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD TO MOSTLY NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID PERIOD HOWEVER.

BY MONDAY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL CAUSE THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
WEAKEN AND THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO MOVE WRLY/SWLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TUE-THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. SCT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN A MOSTLY DRY FCST
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE. ANY GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. TOOK OUT ANY GROUPINGS
WITH VCSH IN IT AS THE COVERAGE IS VERY LOCALIZED AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES ATTM. LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SHOWING
UP ON SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. KEPT TAFS MORE OPTIMISTIC ATTM AS GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS WITH THE NAM HITTING HARDER. CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS A 40% OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL, GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BUT KEEPING VFR. BROUGHT IN A GRADUAL
OVERCAST TOMORROW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET LOWERING
IT AT PHL BY 15Z. SHOWERS WE`RE NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW
GIVEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...LOWER CIGS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH ON
      ONSHORE FLOW. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AT TIMES WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE..
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND THREE FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY ...SUB- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TSTMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/99
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
SHORT TERM...GAINES/KEARNS
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 311933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY`S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK AS
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE CURRENTLY HIGH AMPLIFIED
WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROF PATTERN FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MAINTAINING THEIR POSITIONING. BY MID
WEEK... INCREASING CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRENGHTENING NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL HELP NUDGE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TROF OFFSHORE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN TROF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE FRI-SUN...BUT DEEP MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAVY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 30-40% EACH
DAY.

THE BACKING NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO SPELL
DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND ONE OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM
TROFS BRINGINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING SIGNIFICANT HEAT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MON AND TUE SHOULD BE THE TWO SUNNIEST AND WARMEST
DAYS...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPS START
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN UPPER TROFS CROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. THE TRAILING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO
DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY...RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CHAOTIC SKY COVER NOTED ON THE REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT 1830Z. THIS /SO FAR/ WEAK AND LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WAS FORMING RIGHT WITHIN A WAVY...NEARLY EAST-
WEST RIBBON OF ENHANCED 0-3KM...AND SFC-900MB ML CAPE OF UP TO 500
J/KG.

17Z HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION
/AND TREND OF THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION/...FOCUSING IT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTHERN POCONOS
WHERE SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. POPS WILL STILL
ONLY BE AROUND 30-40 PERCENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED CVRG.

ELSEWHERE...WILL BROAD-BRUSH THE REGION WITH SCHC POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER  OR TSRA.

WINDS WILL GO L/V TONIGHT UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY /ALTO CU OR HIGH BASED STRATO CU/.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL PWATS OF AROUND /OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH/ WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE THIRD-HALF OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT AS DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
/INITIALLY BEING FUNNELED UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS/...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT SFC BASED CAPES TO GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75KT SWRLY JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SCENT
ZONES AND SUSQ VALLEY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TSRA WILL INCREASE TO 40-60 PERCENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COMPACT
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 23Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4
HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THAT REGION.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF
THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311853
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
253 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO POP ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY MORNING. AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE STREAMS UP THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
CLOSEST TO BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311853
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
253 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO POP ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY MORNING. AFTER
PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE STREAMS UP THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
CLOSEST TO BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR
CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL
TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 311611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT MOST. CUMULUS HAS FIRED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL POP- UP SHOWERS OR
THUNDER STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 16Z METAR OBS. USED THE THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE MAV AND MET BOTH APPEAR A TOUCH
LOW. SKY COVER WAS ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE TRENDS OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT MOST. CUMULUS HAS FIRED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL POP- UP SHOWERS OR
THUNDER STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 16Z METAR OBS. USED THE THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE MAV AND MET BOTH APPEAR A TOUCH
LOW. SKY COVER WAS ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE TRENDS OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311551
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1151 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES AS
PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP
TOWARD I-80. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH WILL
MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN LINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SE...DOWN SLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST
AMONG MODELS FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREA WIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311551
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1151 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES AS
PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP
TOWARD I-80. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH WILL
MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN LINE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SE...DOWN SLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST
AMONG MODELS FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREA WIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 311529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE EARLIER...PATCHY DENSE FOG/STRATUS BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KSEG AND KIPT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR
SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AND THE CU FIELD
BEGINS TO EXPAND /IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL/.

THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER SUSQ...NE TWD THE POCONOS FOR THE BEST CHC
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. ELSEWHERE...
PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER AND AREAL COVERAGE SPOTTY AT
BEST.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA /ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE MOST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
DURING THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME
BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR /AND IN A FEW PLACES - BORDERLINE IFR/ CLOUD BASES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF PENN AT 15Z/...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR AFTER BY 17-18Z.

WILL MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM
THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG
TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE EARLIER...PATCHY DENSE FOG/STRATUS BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KSEG AND KIPT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR
SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AND THE CU FIELD
BEGINS TO EXPAND /IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL/.

THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER SUSQ...NE TWD THE POCONOS FOR THE BEST CHC
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. ELSEWHERE...
PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER AND AREAL COVERAGE SPOTTY AT
BEST.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA /ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE MOST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
DURING THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME
BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR /AND IN A FEW PLACES - BORDERLINE IFR/ CLOUD BASES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF PENN AT 15Z/...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR AFTER BY 17-18Z.

WILL MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM
THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG
TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE EARLIER...PATCHY DENSE FOG/STRATUS BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KSEG AND KIPT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR
SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AND THE CU FIELD
BEGINS TO EXPAND /IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL/.

THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER SUSQ...NE TWD THE POCONOS FOR THE BEST CHC
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. ELSEWHERE...
PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER AND AREAL COVERAGE SPOTTY AT
BEST.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA /ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE MOST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
DURING THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME
BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR /AND IN A FEW PLACES - BORDERLINE IFR/ CLOUD BASES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF PENN AT 15Z/...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR AFTER BY 17-18Z.

WILL MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM
THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG
TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311529
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST VESTIGES OF THE EARLIER...PATCHY DENSE FOG/STRATUS BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KSEG AND KIPT.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO BLANKET THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR
SCENT PENN AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED AND THE CU FIELD
BEGINS TO EXPAND /IN BOTH THE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL/.

THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE LIFT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND NE MTNS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
REGION FROM THE LOWER SUSQ...NE TWD THE POCONOS FOR THE BEST CHC
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONCERN ACROSS THE MTNS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. ELSEWHERE...
PRECIP CHCS APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER AND AREAL COVERAGE SPOTTY AT
BEST.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL GET A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY
NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA /ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE MOST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
DURING THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME
BEING WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR /AND IN A FEW PLACES - BORDERLINE IFR/ CLOUD BASES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF PENN AT 15Z/...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR AFTER BY 17-18Z.

WILL MENTION VCSH AT KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM
THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT LONG
TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311321
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. EVENTHOUGH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AS OF 9:15 AM SHOW ANY SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION,
ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OTU THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, LEFT IN SLIGHT TO CHC POPS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE 13Z METAR OBS.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY GO BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS SOME MIXING OCCURS TODAY AND THIS WAS TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT. SKY COVER WAS ALSO RAISED ALONG THE NORTHERN JERSEY COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE MADE TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ZONES OVER
WESTMORELAND AND INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z. FROM KBVI TO KDUJ. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE TODAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF KPIT
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE MADE TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ZONES OVER
WESTMORELAND AND INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z. FROM KBVI TO KDUJ. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE TODAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF KPIT
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 311257
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
857 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS STEADILY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST HOUR
WITH MOST LOCATIONS A0A 2SM IN VSBY.

MOST PLACES WILL SEE A QUITE MORNING WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND A FEW SHOWERS DRITING ACROSS THE SW MTNS.

BEST HEATING AND QUICKEST INCREASE IN INSTAB WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SE ZONES THROUGH THE MIDDAY...WHERE SKIES WILL BE MSTLY SUNNY
PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/.

PREVIOUS DISC...
WORKING OFF THE PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT
TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE
MAIN BUNCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
THE MID-DAY HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL
END OF THE FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD
IDEA FOR MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A
FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT
STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDE RANGE OF CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AND SHOULD KICK
OFF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISO CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
BUT OVERALL PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. THOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBFD. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311257
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
857 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS STEADILY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST HOUR
WITH MOST LOCATIONS A0A 2SM IN VSBY.

MOST PLACES WILL SEE A QUITE MORNING WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND A FEW SHOWERS DRITING ACROSS THE SW MTNS.

BEST HEATING AND QUICKEST INCREASE IN INSTAB WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SE ZONES THROUGH THE MIDDAY...WHERE SKIES WILL BE MSTLY SUNNY
PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF SOME ENHANCED MESOSCALE /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JETLET/.

PREVIOUS DISC...
WORKING OFF THE PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT
TWO SEPARATE VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE
MAIN BUNCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
THE MID-DAY HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL
END OF THE FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD
IDEA FOR MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A
FEW DEGS WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT
STILL 5-10F BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDE RANGE OF CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AND SHOULD KICK
OFF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISO CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
BUT OVERALL PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. THOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBFD. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
823 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE MADE TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ZONES OVER
WESTMORELAND AND INDIANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT KEEPING
IFR/LIFR FOG INHIBITED. SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST. DID EXTEND THE
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS BACK IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KCTP 311202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF FOG SEEM TO BE OCCURRING AS MANY LOCATIONS/OBS -
INCLUDING OUT THE WINDOW - HAVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE
IT RAINED THE MOST YESTERDAY.

IR AND WV LOOPS DEPICT A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAN EARLIER PROGS HAVE SHOWN. THE ONLY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT 09Z
ARE TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. NEWEST ECHOES
POPPING OVER THE MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE AREA ARE HEADED EAST. THIS
COULD STRAFE THE NRN TIER AS THE SUN RISES. WORKING OFF THE
PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT TWO SEPARATE
VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE MAIN BUNCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID- DAY
HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL END OF THE
FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR
MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDE RANGE OF CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AND SHOULD KICK
OFF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISO CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
BUT OVERALL PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. THOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBFD. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311202
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF FOG SEEM TO BE OCCURRING AS MANY LOCATIONS/OBS -
INCLUDING OUT THE WINDOW - HAVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE
IT RAINED THE MOST YESTERDAY.

IR AND WV LOOPS DEPICT A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAN EARLIER PROGS HAVE SHOWN. THE ONLY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT 09Z
ARE TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. NEWEST ECHOES
POPPING OVER THE MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE AREA ARE HEADED EAST. THIS
COULD STRAFE THE NRN TIER AS THE SUN RISES. WORKING OFF THE
PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT TWO SEPARATE
VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE MAIN BUNCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID- DAY
HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL END OF THE
FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR
MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.

WIDE RANGE OF CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AND SHOULD KICK
OFF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MTNS. BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISO CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
BUT OVERALL PROBS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. THOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE NEAR KBFD. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SW TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT.

JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHES AN
OFFSHORE WARM FRONT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ML CAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FORECAST HIGHS), BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PEAK HEATING
AND, THUS PEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, AND THUS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT MOST.

WITH THE BROAD TROUGH STILL REMAINING NW OF THE REGION, AND SOME
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z. IN ITS WAKE, MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARM WATERS, AND STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR, THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND MOVE INTO
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. EVEN IF ANY THING DEVELOPS, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE, AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING, SO SHOULD SEE LOWS
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS PERSISTENT AS
FORECAST, A VERY WEAK UP SLOPE AND ON SHORE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY AND NEAR SHORE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND EXPECTED TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER 24 HOURS LATER AND THERE IS STILL A GLARING
DIFFERENCE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE WITH THE TRACK OF A
SURFACE WAVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER
BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE SOLUTION AND ONE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE THE
NON-NCEP SUITE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE WAVES IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH NCEP MODELS SHOWING
BETTER FORCING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NON-NCEP GROUP HAVE IT ON
SATURDAY. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IN PLACE THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WELL,
EVEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT. THIS REMAINS THE BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR SATURDAY`S POTENTIAL BUT THINKING THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION IS LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AMPLE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GREATER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE TO DO WITH A SMALLER SAMPLE SIZE OF
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE ARE IN.

SUNDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD, AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
COMMENCES. NCEP GUIDANCE PEGS SUNDAY AS THE MAIN ACTION DAY WITH THE
NON-NCEP MEMBERS KEEPING THE FRONT NEARBY BUT HONING IN ON A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, COLD POOL, SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A MORE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW, THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS, SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE TO IGNITE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AT KABE AND
KTTN. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, KILG MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
OVERNIGHT SHRA. IN BOTH CASES, COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED, SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
OF BR DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AT THIS
TIME, BR LOOKS LIKELY AT KMIV AND KACY GIVEN WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS A
COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MEANS A MUCH LOWER RISK OF BR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING WELL TO THE NORTH. COMPLEX CLOUD FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LARGE PATCHES OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON IR
SATELLITE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AND THUS SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BUT BL FLOW HAS
REMAINED ELEVATED INHIBITING FURTHER FOG MATERIALIZATION.

AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT KEEPING
IFR/LIFR FOG INHIBITED. SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING WELL TO THE NORTH. COMPLEX CLOUD FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LARGE PATCHES OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON IR
SATELLITE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AND THUS SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BUT BL FLOW HAS
REMAINED ELEVATED INHIBITING FURTHER FOG MATERIALIZATION.

AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT KEEPING
IFR/LIFR FOG INHIBITED. SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING WELL TO THE NORTH. COMPLEX CLOUD FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LARGE PATCHES OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON IR
SATELLITE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AND THUS SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BUT BL FLOW HAS
REMAINED ELEVATED INHIBITING FURTHER FOG MATERIALIZATION.

AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT KEEPING
IFR/LIFR FOG INHIBITED. SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING WELL TO THE NORTH. COMPLEX CLOUD FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LARGE PATCHES OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON IR
SATELLITE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AND THUS SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BUT BL FLOW HAS
REMAINED ELEVATED INHIBITING FURTHER FOG MATERIALIZATION.

AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS
JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF
SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT TRIGGER ATTM...ITS
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TO
TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE COMING DAYS AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS
THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL WOULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR MINIMAL COVERAGE
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT KEEPING
IFR/LIFR FOG INHIBITED. SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH TODAY
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310924
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS PIVOTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. COMPLEX CLOUD FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LARGE PATCHES OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BUT BL FLOW HAS REMAINED ELEVATED DELAYING THE
FOG TIMING.

AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY THE OVERALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WANES. 00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT STILL IN PLAY...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 AGAIN TODAY.

00Z NAM HAS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH THE LLVL FLOW PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SE...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG MODELS FOR THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY.
TAX

&&

 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS JUST SHY OF 1.5" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MODEL PROGS SHOW THE AREA
UNDER A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WITH EASTERN ZONES
HAVING THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITHOUT ANY APPARENT
TRIGGER ATTM...ITS POSSIBLE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THINGS TOO
STABLE FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS IN THE
COMING DAYS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS INCREASES. MORE OF
THE SAME ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
SETUP...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS
WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL
WOULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCATTERED COVERAGE AREAWIDE OR
MINIMAL COVERAGE WITH A FOCUS OVER THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS
VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR IMAGERY PAINTS A COMPLEX IMAGE OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE
DOMINATED...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE STAYED UP ALL NIGHT DELAYING THE
ONSET OF FOG GENERATION. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VSBY BOUNCE AROUND
AT SEVERAL PORTS THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT MVFR OR BETTER
SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH THIS
TODAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ.

NEXT RESTRICTIONS COULD COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE.
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KCTP 310905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF FOG SEEM TO BE OCCURRING AS MANY LOCATIONS/OBS -
INCLUDING OUT THE WINDOW - HAVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE
IT RAINED THE MOST YESTERDAY.

IR AND WV LOOPS DEPICT A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAN EARLIER PROGS HAVE SHOWN. THE ONLY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT 09Z
ARE TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. NEWEST ECHOES
POPPING OVER THE MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE AREA ARE HEADED EAST. THIS
COULD STRAFE THE NRN TIER AS THE SUN RISES. WORKING OFF THE
PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT TWO SEPARATE
VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE MAIN BUNCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID- DAY
HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL END OF THE
FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR
MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE SE AT 06Z...WITH NEW AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RIDING NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. IT APPEARS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH ISOLATE
SHOWERS POSS MAINLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT /ESP NEAR KJST/.
WITH EARLIER RAINS...CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT SOME DROPS IN VSBY IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM SITE TO SITE.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NEW YORK...AND LIKELY SNEAKING
INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS /KBFD/ AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THUS...INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF FOG SEEM TO BE OCCURRING AS MANY LOCATIONS/OBS -
INCLUDING OUT THE WINDOW - HAVE A RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.
WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL COS WHERE
IT RAINED THE MOST YESTERDAY.

IR AND WV LOOPS DEPICT A RATHER CONSOLIDATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAN EARLIER PROGS HAVE SHOWN. THE ONLY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT 09Z
ARE TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. NEWEST ECHOES
POPPING OVER THE MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE AREA ARE HEADED EAST. THIS
COULD STRAFE THE NRN TIER AS THE SUN RISES. WORKING OFF THE
PREMISE OF A MORE COMPACT AREA OF FORCING AND NOT TWO SEPARATE
VORT MAXIMA...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICKER EXIT TO THE MAIN BUNCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID- DAY
HOURS. SO THERE MIGHT BE CONVECTION FORM AS THE TAIL END OF THE
FORCING PRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT LOW CHC POPS STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR
MUCH OF DAY...INCHING OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNSET. GOOD SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP TEMPS GET A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN WED - VERY NEAR NORMAL IN THE SRN TIER BUT STILL 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL IN THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A MINOR CHC OF A SHOWER IN THE NRN TIER
IN THE EVENING. WILL JUST LEAVE A 20 POP THERE FOR THE TIME BEING
WHILE DROPPING POPS OFF IN THE EAST. WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN SRLY AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATES UP TO THE
NORTHEAST - ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND. BUT THE YIN OF RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A YANG OF A DIP IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS PWATS
RISE ON GOOD POLEWARD FLOW AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FORMS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPS DO GET NEARER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
NOAM WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION RELAXING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINING ITS ORIENTATION. THE
RISING 500MB HGTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EDGE BACK TOWARD
EARLY AUGUST CLIMATE NORMALS. THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO NEAR 90W WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE QSTNRY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TO DRIFT WWD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z/30TH GEFS SHOWS
PLUME OF HI PWATS POOLING NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG/E OF THE
APPLCHN SPINE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAFL SETTING UP
FROM THE SRN MID ATLC STATES UP INTO SERN PA/DELMARVA/NJ AREAS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING TOWARD THE IDEA THE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE APPLCHNS...ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LW TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
DURATION AND PLACEMENT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HI PWAT
PLUME SHIFTS S/E AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACCOMPANIED BY SFC HIGH
PRES ON MON. NRN STREAM ENERGY IS SLATED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD
INTO THE AREA BY NEXT TUE/WED WHICH MAY STALL OUT FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE SE AT 06Z...WITH NEW AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RIDING NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. IT APPEARS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH ISOLATE
SHOWERS POSS MAINLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT /ESP NEAR KJST/.
WITH EARLIER RAINS...CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT SOME DROPS IN VSBY IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM SITE TO SITE.

A STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST HALF OF THU...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NEW YORK...AND LIKELY SNEAKING
INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS /KBFD/ AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
MON...SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



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