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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051638
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 051622
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1222 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MEANDERS AND WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AROUND MIDDAY
WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND.
IT WILL LEAVE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
OUR REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY FROM NEW ENGLAND
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD DRAW A BIT OF DRY AIR INTO OUR
REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT, THE BASES OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT SOMEWHAT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST, MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MIDDAY TRENDS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AS INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF
NOW, IT APPEARS OUR AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER IT MAY BE CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN
MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
WITH OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00
INCHES FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING
PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE
OF THE 500 MB JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY
/PERHAPS SMALL HAIL OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE
STRONGER FORCING MAY SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT,
WE INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, A WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME
IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE
WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT FOR THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR CIGS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95
REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
THEN THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT,
THEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
5 FEET INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS THE WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE
SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON THIS MORNING`S TIDAL SURGE OF +1.0 TO +1.5 FEET ALONG
THE COAST, WE HAVE CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO THEIR MODERATE
THRESHOLD LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE SURGE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED TO AROUND +1.0 ON THE EXTREME LOWER PART OF THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER, SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, AS WELL.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE NEW MOON.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS
LIKELY WITH FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AND SOME MODERATE FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS OF THIS STRETCH ON FRIDAY EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIDE CYCLE. ADDITIONAL MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER ON
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO



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000
FXUS61 KCTP 051520
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1120 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SW MTNS
LEAVING OUR CWA CLOUDY BUT DRY. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SW MTNS.
HOWEVER...WIDEPSPREAD MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. HRRR
AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS. HOWEVER...SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051449
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051449
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MEANDERS AND WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND.
IT WILL LEAVE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
OUR REGION FOR TODAY.

THE WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY FROM NEW ENGLAND
FOR TODAY AND IT SHOULD DRAW A BIT OF DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION IN
THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT, THE BASES OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST,
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AS INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF
NOW, IT APPEARS OUR AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER IT MAY BE CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN
MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
WITH OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00
INCHES FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING
PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE
OF THE 500 MB JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY
/PERHAPS SMALL HAIL OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE
STRONGER FORCING MAY SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT,
WE INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, A WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME
IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE
WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
THEN THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT,
THEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
5 FEET INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS THE WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE
SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AT
LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL,
SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES
WILL BE A FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, WE MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE TIDAL DE
RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO THE EXTREME
UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR CENTRAL PA. AT 12Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500 AND 1500 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA LATER TODAY...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. BY
AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 051100
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR TERM
MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION
TO THE CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH
HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
WV/MD PANHANDLES /IDI-CBE TO OKV LINE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WWD EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA LAST NIGHT /WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST SPOTS IN PA OVER THE LAST
30-60+ DAYS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES PER THE SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT DAY 1 SLGT RISK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO WV/VA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AND HIRES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MORE ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS.

THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERN 1/3 OF PA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PATCHY DZ/FOG FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF SCT P.M. SHOWERS. THE MAX PCPN PROBS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050926
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE
WV/MD PANHANDLES /IDI-CBE TO OKV LINE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WWD EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA LAST NIGHT /WHICH
ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST SPOTS IN PA OVER THE LAST
30-60+ DAYS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES PER THE SLGT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE CURRENT DAY 1 SLGT RISK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO WV/VA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AND HIRES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MORE ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS.

THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERN 1/3 OF PA. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH PATCHY DZ/FOG FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF SCT P.M. SHOWERS. THE MAX PCPN PROBS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A FEW
LINGERING -SHRA TO KJST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT 09Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500
AND 1000 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE.
BY AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG ON IF
THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST
WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20
TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 516A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 516A
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 516A
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 516A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...516A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A RAINFREE
DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING
THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM
THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS
MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL BUT
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

FORECAST BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS WITH THE
POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET ALONG THE NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS THURSDAY
EVENING.

WE HAVE A MORNING AND AN EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ADVISORY PLANNED
FOR DE.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE
TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AND THE
EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE
CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE
CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050633
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST
PA HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.

THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL BRING A
FEW LINGERING -SHRA TO THAT PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 06Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT. A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY CAUSE CIGS TO FALL FURTHER...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO
RISE. LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY AFTN AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES.
THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY FRIDAY...
THEN SHOULD EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A RAINFREE
DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING
THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM
THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS
MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL BUT
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

FORECAST BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS WITH THE
POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET ALONG THE NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS THURSDAY
EVENING.

WE HAVE A MORNING AND AN EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ADVISORY PLKANNED
FOR DE.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE
TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AND THE
EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 230A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 230A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 230A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 230A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...230A




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE
COD LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES. THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY
FRIDAY...THEN EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A RAINFREE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COLD
AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF
COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25
MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 600 AND 1600 FT WITH
POCKETS OF 4MI DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND
LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE TO
MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL PROBABLY ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE
BAY IN THE 330 AM THURSDAY ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT SHOULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE
TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS THURSDAY EVENING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE AND WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
THIS EVENING.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/DRAG 1217A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1217A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO 1217A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1217A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE
COD LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES. THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY
FRIDAY...THEN EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A RAINFREE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COLD
AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF
COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25
MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 600 AND 1600 FT WITH
POCKETS OF 4MI DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND
LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE TO
MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL PROBABLY ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE
BAY IN THE 330 AM THURSDAY ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT SHOULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE
TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS THURSDAY EVENING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE AND WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
THIS EVENING.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/DRAG 1217A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1217A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO 1217A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1217A




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST
PA HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.

THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS...MVFR CONDITIONS...HAVE SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH ALL TERMINALS SUB VFR EXCEPT BRADFORD.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT BRINGING
WITH MOST TERMINALS GOING IFR BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1049 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTEN SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST PA
HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.

THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 050249
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1049 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATE EVENING RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES EARLIER BROKEN LINE OF
PERSISTEN SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO NORTHEAST PA
HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN
DEFORMATION FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE MD/WV PANHANDLES WNW INTO
WEST CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD
WHILE DAMPENING IT OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAURELS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHRA AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.

THIS IS CLOSE TO THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE DAY SHIFT AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN POPS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
TOUCHED UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST PA WHICH HAD THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME. THUNDER THREAT IS
OVER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHER QPF WILL
FALL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REDUCED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE LAMP.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.  GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS UP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THINK HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF CWA...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR RAIN TOTALS IN LOW
FFG PATCH IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THURSDAY
FORECAST FOR NOW.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING
DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING
DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A BROKEN BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN
NORTH TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042250
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
ENDLESS MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING
DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN NORTH
TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN NORTH
TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042246
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN NORTH
TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACRS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIP MOVG OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUID KEEPS THE AREA GENLY RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVE
INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME DZ. THEREFORE, WILL LOWER POPS
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND LOWERED AFTER THAT.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 042221
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
621 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICEABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A BAND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN NORTH
TO WELLSBORO. LOCALLY IFR UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS.

MORE EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS...MVFR...OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY CLOSEST TO THE ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.

LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041951
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE
FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

MK/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041947
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WIDESSPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041947
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN
EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT. BIGGEST CHANGE IS SHARPENING OF
PRECIP FIELD FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH 24-HOUR QPF POTENTIAL
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT OF AROUND 1.00 INCH. WPC HAS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2. UPPED POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS NOTICABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROBABILITY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SAT...THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ANOTHER RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-
MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT AGAIN...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD
OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WIDESSPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041850
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WIDESSPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041850
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN
MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF
PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR
SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS NNEWD TO THE NY
BORDER. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO NON EXISTENT. HOWEVER
GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS MOISUTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WIDESSPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5
MI IN SHOWERS. TIMING OF MOST OF THE RAIN THRU MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER AROUND KACY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE RAN ABOUT 0.7 TO 1.0 ABV NORMAL. THAT
UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW BUT STEADY UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF APPROAHING SHORT
WAVE TROF COMBINES WITH...ALBEIT LIMITED...SFC HEATING. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BELIGHT BUT A FEW HEAVIER...SOAKING CELLS POSSIBLE
AS ARE COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A LOT OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD
PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN
BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW BUT STEADY UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF APPROAHING SHORT
WAVE TROF COMBINES WITH...ALBEIT LIMITED...SFC HEATING. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BELIGHT BUT A FEW HEAVIER...SOAKING CELLS POSSIBLE
AS ARE COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESSPREAD
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBS ATLEAT THROUGH THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MID
MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. IT
SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL TREND WELL.

OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE RAIN MAINLY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE PROGS MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WEAK CAP AT 600MB. IF DEWPOINTS STAY STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL MORE THAN FORECAST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION BUT AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW DEEPENING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE FORECAST
AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE SE.

BINOVC AT THE OFFICE...BUT FILLING IN SOME NOW.

MADE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THU.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 041142
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE SE.

BINOVC AT THE OFFICE...BUT FILLING IN SOME NOW.

MADE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THU.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE BASED ON OBS
AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN
THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD
KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040933
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAFS WAS TO BACK OFF ON THE LOWER CONDITIONS.
THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TODAY...SHOWERS AS PER 455 AM RADAR...MOSTLY ALONG AND NW
OF I95 WITH A LOBE SWD ALONG THE S NJ AND DE COASTS.

AFTER SUNRISE...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. (THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT NOT MAKING A MOVE ON THAT TIL 6 AM AT THE
EARLIEST...ALREADY MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM E VA INTO THE
DELMARVA).

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

MAY ADD "HEAVY" WORDING TO NNJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE? MAY ALSO ADD
THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.. S NJ AND DE AS WELL
AS COASTS. STILL UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER TO ADD.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG/KPNE/KTTN WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN
CERTAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY
ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20
KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR THE DE
COAST PER RECENT UPTICK IN SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  505
SHORT TERM...DRAG 505
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 505
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 505
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...505




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040825
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR TRACKS THE RAIN AREA ENEWD OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
THROUGH 12Z. 04/00Z HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING CLOSES OFF AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF...THERE IS A
GENERAL SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A LOCAL PCPN MAX IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INVOF THE WV/MD PANHANDLES AND SW MTNS OF PA WITHIN A
PIVOTING DEFORMATION PCPN BAND ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD
REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN
RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD
INTO CENTRAL PA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY SATURDAY AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW STARTS TO
INTERACT/MERGE WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING
THRU SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUN-MON HOWEVER COOL POOL ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW, ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE
COASTS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC
LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND
NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING
THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS
AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST
NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE
FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT UNV EARLIER...BUT CENTRAL AREAS NOT BAD
NOW. STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST...MAINLY SE. SKIES CLEAR
TO THE WEST AT SITES LIKE JST...BUT BFD HAS DENSE FOG.

EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST...BUT EASTERN AREAS MAY STAY IFR AND MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WED NIGHT.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040521
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040516
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
116 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE,
ESPECIALLY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A
WEAK 850 TROUGH. QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. COULD BE POCKETS OF .25 TO
.5 INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND
GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED
00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES SOMEWHAT
BUT A CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50
BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. MORE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT
IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE
PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A TO
ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 115
SHORT TERM...DRAG 115
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 115
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 115
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 115




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040410
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM ESTF: POPS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY PORTIONS E PA AND MD E
SHORE OVERNIGHT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERY BAND DEVELOPING NEWD FROM
NORTHERN VA AND W MD... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO WK INSTABILITY
BURST, INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE
LARGER SCALE MAJOR TROUGH EVOLUTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. THE
POPS ADJUSTMENT IS SUPPORTED FCST BY MULTI MODELS. OVERNIGHT QPF
FCST FOR KRDG/MPO/KESN MAY BE LOW. ADDED FOG FOR THE POCONOS.
LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WITH MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR. LIGHT NE WIND.

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM INSTABILITY
ALOFT. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. MAY BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND IN THE 330
AM WEDNESDAY FORECAST FOR NNJ 450-451.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 1107
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN 1107
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/IOVINO 1107
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 040128
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
928 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO PA PERSISTS BETWEEN COASTAL CAROLINA SFC
LOW AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SFC HIGH CIRCULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXES CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER PA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND
NRN GLAKS UPPER LOW. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DAMP EVENING
THROUGHOUT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND SPRITZY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

ANOTHER UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS
AND WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST
NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE
FLOW PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NC
AND SOUTHEASTERN VA, EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND THEN OFF THE COAST. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR
THE VA-NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDED DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, PROMOTING THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER RESIDING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CENTRAL
DELMARVA ZONES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE EVENING TO BE
MAINLY DRY (IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP) ACROSS THE AREA BUT
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM OF
US OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP STEER THE SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD OUR REGION. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER TIME THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
COULD EVEN INCREASE TOWARD EARLY MORNING SINCE BACKING FLOW WOULD
ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCORDINGLY,
POPS WERE RAISED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS DID IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT RDG/PNE/PHL/ILG BUT REMAINED IFR ELSEWHERE. WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY MVFR, CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
EXCEPT MAYBE AT RDG. LIKEWISE, IFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL, BUT THE GREATER IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS.

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS MAY LAST EVEN LONGER INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY THAN THEY GENERALLY DID TODAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PREVENTING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT WILL STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY, SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.

UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032257
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.

UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032257
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
657 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE IT`S MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM COOLISH (AROUND
50F) UP NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S AND A BIT MUGGY FAR SOUTH.

UPPER SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS AND
WESTERN PA WILL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HRRR KEEPS MOST NUMEROUS
AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN EXCESS OF 0.8"...AND DEEPER MARINE FLOW
PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DZ CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032222 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 032125
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS
ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING
OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT
THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO
THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A
SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN.

ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY
TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH
OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. IT
SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS WAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD CAUSE THE BASES OF THE STRATUS TO LIFT A BIT
DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OUR REGION.

THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER DARK. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN WESTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 330 PM MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN WEST VIRGINIA MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN OUR
REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 4OS AND LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AROUND KRDG AND KABE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5
FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A
SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT,
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031921
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS
ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING
OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT
THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO
THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A
SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN.

ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY
TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG LIFTED AND CIGS ALSO LIFTING AT MOST TERMINALS. BREAKS CLOSE
TO JST/AOO SHOULD HELP THEM MIX BETTER/HIGHER SHORTLY.

PREV...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF
SITES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF
SITES. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTN. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 031855
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS
ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING
OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT
THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO
THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A
SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN.

ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY
TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A DEFORMATION PCPN LOOK
WRAPPING NWWD INTO ERN PA AROUND CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC GETS ABSORBED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST
CONUS. THE 03/00Z ECMWF MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING COOLER/BELOW NORMAL
VS. GFS FOR MOTHERS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG LIFTED AND CIGS ALSO LIFTING AT MOST TERMINALS. BREAKS CLOSE
TO JST/AOO SHOULD HELP THEM MIX BETTER/HIGHER SHORTLY.

PREV...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF
SITES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF
SITES. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS SE PA ARND NOON
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS LINGERING INTO
THE AFTN. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BY LATE AFTN.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO




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