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000
FXUS61 KCTP 210134
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ALL EYES ARE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW
MTNS OF PA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE REGION IS
CAUSING BLYR FLOW TO VEER TO THE WNW...PUSHING THE DYING SINGLE
BAND INTO WARREN COUNTY AS OF 0130Z. NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 02Z-05Z FROM
REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN AS FLOW BECOMES CROSS
LAKE...EXPECT LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

HAVEN/T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES
ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY
TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT
-SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE. ANY ACCUMS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS WILL RESULT IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO THE L20S WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. LIKEWISE...OROGRAPHIC-INDUCED STRATOCU
AND FLURRIES OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. FURTHER
EAST...DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MSUNNY SKIES THE
ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

ENSEMBLE MEAN 925 TEMPS OF ARND 8C IMPLY HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE L/M20S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L30S IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER


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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 202242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ALL EYES ARE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EDGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NW
MTNS OF PA THIS EVENING. BLYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE
A DYING SINGLE BAND INTO WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. NEAR TERM MDLS
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN
02Z-05Z FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN AS FLOW BECOMES
CROSS LAKE...EXPECT LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

HAVEN/T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES
ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY
TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT
-SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH ANY ACCUMS TO LESS THAN
AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ALL EYES ARE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EDGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NW
MTNS OF PA THIS EVENING. BLYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE
A DYING SINGLE BAND INTO WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. NEAR TERM MDLS
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN
02Z-05Z FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN AS FLOW BECOMES
CROSS LAKE...EXPECT LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

HAVEN/T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES
ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY
TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT
-SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH ANY ACCUMS TO LESS THAN
AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ALL EYES ARE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EDGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NW
MTNS OF PA THIS EVENING. BLYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE
A DYING SINGLE BAND INTO WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. NEAR TERM MDLS
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN
02Z-05Z FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN AS FLOW BECOMES
CROSS LAKE...EXPECT LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

HAVEN/T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES
ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY
TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT
-SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH ANY ACCUMS TO LESS THAN
AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ALL EYES ARE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EDGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NW
MTNS OF PA THIS EVENING. BLYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE
A DYING SINGLE BAND INTO WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES. NEAR TERM MDLS
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN
02Z-05Z FROM REMNANTS OF THIS SINGLE BAND...THEN AS FLOW BECOMES
CROSS LAKE...EXPECT LIGHTER MULTIPLE BANDED LE SNOW THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

HAVEN/T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. LATEST BLEND OF HIGHER RES MDL QPF...COMBINED WITH SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NR 20 TO 1...SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS OF ARND 6 INCHES
ACROSS NW WARREN CO...WHILE MOST OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS GET ADVISORY
TYPE AMTS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...EXPECT ONLY SCT
-SHSN DUE TO LACK OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH ANY ACCUMS TO LESS THAN
AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY PLAGUE THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES
TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY PLAGUE THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES
TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCTP 202201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 202130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 202130
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
LATER FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WE WERE ABLE TO GET A FEW HOURS OF MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND A FEW DEGREES TACKED ON TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A NICE BREAK
FROM THE EARLY SEASON COLD. HOWEVER, TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL GO BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED
WITH LAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
WITH LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF
THE AIRMASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF
THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS FOR NW
NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND 850/925 MB TEMPS
ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR REGION ONLY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA,
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO THURSDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN THE
12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING ALLOWING WAA
TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY IS MORE DEFINED
AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS
AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA
WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING WAA AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING
MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS
LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES FOR A TIME
DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF WE CAN GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD HAVE A SHOT
AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER LOOKS TO
TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY FOLLOWED THE
12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF MEAN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE
TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MORE NORTH OF WEST ON FRIDAY AROUND 300 COMPARED TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO TO 12Z FRIDAY
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING,
THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER MAY ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH TENDS
TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT GUSTS
BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO BELOW
WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE DELAWARE BAY.
DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN A TENTH OF A
FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET MLLW), WHILE
ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED ON THE FACT THAT
ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT CONDITIONS AND
ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING THE SITUATION THIS
EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5-10,000 FEET HAVE BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE NORTH OF WEST AROUND 300 COMPARED
TO THE SOUTH FO WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED CONDITIONS.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WITH OCNL IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTLE INTO THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201916
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAT IR SHOWS FAIRY WIDESPREAD AREA OF CAA CU UNDER A GENERAL
QUASI-STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM...INTO TONIGHT...AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE FORECAST AREA UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A DRYING TREND SET FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECOUPLING OF THE BL TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE STRATCU TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDER CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA
WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANY CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. WINDS...WILL BECOME WRLY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 201518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THIS MORNING. COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE ON A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND...AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ITS MAIN EFFECT IS TO USHER IN A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP
THE STRONGER WSW WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL AND WE HAVE SOME VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAY...AND FROM ABOUT 10 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE
HEAVIEST SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND
MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW
BANDS.

THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN WHAT WAS JUST
EXPERIENCED ACROSS NW PA...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET THAT FELL
ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR PERIOD
BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI
COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES
BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST
BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN
THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STRONG 140-150 KT
UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-15KT
OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COLD GUSTY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN
THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AND UNLIMITED THE REST OF THE TIME. SIMILARLY
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN ABOUT 1500-4000`. SO CONDITIONS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS REMAIN MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR MAINLY WEST/NORTH.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
THIS MORNING. COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE ON A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND...AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ITS MAIN EFFECT IS TO USHER IN A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP
THE STRONGER WSW WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH TEMPS THAT WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL AND WE HAVE SOME VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAY...AND FROM ABOUT 10 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE
HEAVIEST SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND
MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW
BANDS.

THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN WHAT WAS JUST
EXPERIENCED ACROSS NW PA...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET THAT FELL
ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR PERIOD
BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI
COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES
BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST
BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN
THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STRONG 140-150 KT
UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-15KT
OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COLD GUSTY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN
THE 1-3 MILE RANGE AND UNLIMITED THE REST OF THE TIME. SIMILARLY
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN ABOUT 1500-4000`. SO CONDITIONS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND VFR OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF TODAY.

BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE
FAMILIAR ONE WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ELEVATIONS REMAIN MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR MAINLY WEST/NORTH.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 201137
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL BUT
CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 09Z WITH WSW
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A FEW GUSTS AOA 30 KTS
ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PENN.

DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP
THE STRONGER WSW WINDS FROM THE 3-4 KFT LEVEL AND CREATE FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH
TEMPS THAT WILL ANYWHERE FROM  16 TO 22 DEG F BELOW NORMAL AND WE
HAVE SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY DAY...AND
FROM ABOUT -5F TO 10 DEG F ABOVE TONIGHT.

MEAN WIND /FROM 255 TO 65 DEG/ IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER KEEPS
THE HEAVY/INTENSE SINGLE LES BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND
MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW
BANDS.

THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ELSEWHERE WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF NRN AND WESTERN PENN.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TO
TRANSITION FROM THE LES WATCH FOR OUR NW ZONES...AND POST A LES
WARNING FOR WARREN CTY AND A LES ADVISORY FOR MCKEAN COUNTY.

THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN THE LES EXPERIENCED
ACROSS NW PENN LATE LAST WEEK...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET
THAT FELL ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR
PERIOD BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI
COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES
BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST
BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN
THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STRONG 140-150 KT
UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TREK THIS MORNING. THE LOW
ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
 MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE...BEFORE THE WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THESE
BANDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS IN DURATION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR BFD TO DROP TO IFR UNTIL 14Z. BFD AND JST WILL STAY MVFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR BLUSTERY WINDS.
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL SET UP THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE BFD AND JST TO SEE SOME MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 201137
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL BUT
CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 09Z WITH WSW
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A FEW GUSTS AOA 30 KTS
ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PENN.

DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP
THE STRONGER WSW WINDS FROM THE 3-4 KFT LEVEL AND CREATE FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH
TEMPS THAT WILL ANYWHERE FROM  16 TO 22 DEG F BELOW NORMAL AND WE
HAVE SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY DAY...AND
FROM ABOUT -5F TO 10 DEG F ABOVE TONIGHT.

MEAN WIND /FROM 255 TO 65 DEG/ IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER KEEPS
THE HEAVY/INTENSE SINGLE LES BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND
MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW
BANDS.

THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ELSEWHERE WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF NRN AND WESTERN PENN.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TO
TRANSITION FROM THE LES WATCH FOR OUR NW ZONES...AND POST A LES
WARNING FOR WARREN CTY AND A LES ADVISORY FOR MCKEAN COUNTY.

THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN THE LES EXPERIENCED
ACROSS NW PENN LATE LAST WEEK...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET
THAT FELL ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR
PERIOD BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI
COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES
BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST
BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN
THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STRONG 140-150 KT
UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TREK THIS MORNING. THE LOW
ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
 MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE...BEFORE THE WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH. THESE
BANDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS IN DURATION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR BFD TO DROP TO IFR UNTIL 14Z. BFD AND JST WILL STAY MVFR
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR BLUSTERY WINDS.
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL SET UP THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE BFD AND JST TO SEE SOME MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 201033
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL BUT
CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT 09Z WITH WSW
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. A FEW GUSTS AOA 30 KTS
ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PENN.

DEEPENING COLD AIR AND INCREASED DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAP
THE STRONGER WSW WINDS FROM THE 3-4 KFT LEVEL AND CREATE FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE TODAY. COMBINE THE GUSTS WITH
TEMPS THAT WILL ANYWHERE FROM  16 TO 22 DEG F BELOW NORMAL AND WE
HAVE SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM JUST THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY DAY...AND
FROM ABOUT -5F TO 10 DEG F ABOVE TONIGHT.

MEAN WIND /FROM 255 TO 65 DEG/ IN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER KEEPS
THE HEAVY/INTENSE SINGLE LES BAND ANCHORED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER GLAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND
MORE INLAND...BEFORE THE SHORTENED FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS UP THE LES INTO SEVERAL NARROW
BANDS.

THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ELSEWHERE WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF NRN AND WESTERN PENN.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TO
TRANSITION FROM THE LES WATCH FOR OUR NW ZONES...AND POST A LES
WARNING FOR WARREN CTY AND A LES ADVISORY FOR MCKEAN COUNTY.

THE LENGTH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER THAN THE LES EXPERIENCED
ACROSS NW PENN LATE LAST WEEK...SO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET
THAT FELL ACROSS FAR NWRN WARREN COUNTY OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOUR
PERIOD BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY AND LAST SAT MORNING.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM JUST THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /TO THE EAST OF RT 219/ WHILE
LOCALIZED AMTS OF 3 OR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SKI
COUNTRY OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED/NARROW BANDS OF LES
BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST
BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

WIND GUSTS TONIGHT COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40-45 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE /WITHIN
THE DESCENDING/THERMALLY DIRECT BRANCH OF A STORNG 140-150 KT
UPPER JET...STRETCHED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST/.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER SE.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEG F COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

A WARM FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND
RAIN FOR LATE SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200925
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KCTP 200653
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING SATL/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH
BASED STRATO CU CLOUDS /BUT JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/ ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW TRACKING
THRU THE NRN GRT LKS. AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM
THIS 1000 MB LOW TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN WEST-CENTRAL PENN
AT 0630Z.

HIGH REL...NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORTS JUST AN ADDITIONAL
DUSTING-1/2 INCH OF SNOW EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND
LAURELS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR
MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF
THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

A WEAKENING...SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
SHORTLY...CAUSING THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND VERY LGT SNOW TO
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS AND DISSOLVE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE MID/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPR TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...
WHILE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY
SKIES AND SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED TO
ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY OFF
THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES...AS
THE SINGLE/INTENSE BAND OF SNOW NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SHIFTS
SOUTH AND INLAND TOWARD WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THRU FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL
MAINLY BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE
WNW...CAUSING INTENSE SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO
TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. WILL BE
COORDINATING WITH WFOS CLE AND PBZ TO HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO
LES ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES.

BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC WITH DYING SINGLE
BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TOTALS ARND 6
INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM JUST THE
L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200653
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY MORNING SATL/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH
BASED STRATO CU CLOUDS /BUT JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/ ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW TRACKING
THRU THE NRN GRT LKS. AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM
THIS 1000 MB LOW TO NEAR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN WEST-CENTRAL PENN
AT 0630Z.

HIGH REL...NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORTS JUST AN ADDITIONAL
DUSTING-1/2 INCH OF SNOW EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND
LAURELS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR
MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF
THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

A WEAKENING...SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
SHORTLY...CAUSING THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND VERY LGT SNOW TO
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS AND DISSOLVE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INTO
THE MID/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPR TEENS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THIS MORNING...
WHILE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY
SKIES AND SOUTH-SWRLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED TO
ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY OFF
THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES...AS
THE SINGLE/INTENSE BAND OF SNOW NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SHIFTS
SOUTH AND INLAND TOWARD WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THRU FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL
MAINLY BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE
WNW...CAUSING INTENSE SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO
TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. WILL BE
COORDINATING WITH WFOS CLE AND PBZ TO HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO
LES ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR OUR FAR NW ZONES.

BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC WITH DYING SINGLE
BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TOTALS ARND 6
INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM JUST THE
L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS
YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200610 RRA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200610 RRA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200610 RRA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200610 RRA
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
110 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ELEVATION SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.
WEAK NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES...THOUGH THESE WILL BECOME LESS IN DURATION TOWARDS MORNING.
LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALLOW JST TO BE MVFR
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS.
 ALL CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW
SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JST AND BFD. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND CEASE BETWEEN 07Z TO 10Z. VFR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...EXCEPT BFD AND JST
WHICH COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200539 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
LOW INVERSIONS AND A DRY LAYER BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY LENGTHY OR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE CAA WILL MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL OVERNIGHT.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200539 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
LOW INVERSIONS AND A DRY LAYER BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY LENGTHY OR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE CAA WILL MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL OVERNIGHT.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 200429
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID
CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.

TOMORROW WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200429
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1129 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES WILL STAY VFR WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID
CLOUDS/SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING WEST WIND.

TOMORROW WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU AS OF 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT
ACCUM OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
06Z...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE SNOW WATCH THRU 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE THU...UNLIKE THE
EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE BUF AREA A HUGE AMT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND
MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY UP THIS EVENING A BIT UNTIL BETTER
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY UP THIS EVENING A BIT UNTIL BETTER
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 200124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF
01Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO
AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
MIDNIGHT...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF
01Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO
AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
MIDNIGHT...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF
01Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO
AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
MIDNIGHT...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 200124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF
01Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF UP TO
AN INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES AT BEST THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
MIDNIGHT...CAUSING LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY
TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE UNDER MCLDY SKIES/SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED
TO ASCEND THE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMT OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW YIELDS MSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS AND LACK OF A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NW PA TOWARD EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THU AFTN THRU
FRI AFTN...BUT LATEST MDL DATA NOW SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...WHEN BLYR FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW...CAUSING INTENSE
SINGLE BAND OVR WESTERN NY STATE TO TRANSITION TO WEAKER MULTIPLE
BANDS AFFECTING NW PA. BOTH 18Z GEFS/NAM SHOWS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC
WITH DYING SINGLE BAND MOVING THRU WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES ARND 03Z
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MDL QPF IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TOTALS ARND 6 INCHES FRI NIGHT...ESP OVR NW WARREN CO. MDL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW MAXIMUM OMEGA OCCURRING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ARND -15C.

ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY FROM JUST THE L20S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO PERHAPS THE U30S ACROSS YORK/LANCASTER
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 192335
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GRT LKS. SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ASSOC LL
JET IS PRODUCING A BIT OF SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA AS OF
23Z AND NEAR TERM MDL DATA STILL SUPPORTS A LIGHT ACCUM OF ARND AN
INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR MEAGER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DOWNSLOPING/DRYING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO
SCT FLURRIES THERE.

WEAKENING LL JET SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY ARND
MIDNIGHT...LGT SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE N MTNS. SFC COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UTEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS
ARE ANTICIPATE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD/DRY AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY
UNFOLD FOR SWRN NY AND POSSIBLY NW PA.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 192057
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KCTP 192057
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA EARLY THU WILL BRING
MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID
LOWER TEMPS SOME...AS THIS AIRMASS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE HAD.

ALSO LAKE SNOW WATCH FROM 20Z THU TO 20Z FRIDAY...AS THE MEAN
WIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATE
THU...UNLIKE THE EVENT YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY THAT GAVE THE
BUF AREA A HUGE AMT OF SNOW. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PART OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN
MOISTURE RETURN. REALLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW...GIVEN TEMPS ALOFT
BUT SFC TEMPS FCST NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW 32. LATER SHIFTS
CAN ADJUST.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP TEMPS SOME...GIVEN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

ALSO DID UP POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GIVEN
TYPE OF AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD.

COOLER AGAIN BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT WE HAVE
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 192035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 191917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191853
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT... USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR
LAKES.

THE FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MY NWRN
ZONES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF MEAN SNOW
ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP EVENT. SREF
PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING OF LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA
UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD
ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE NORMAL
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE LAURELS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AVERAGING AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH...AND RANGING TO THE MID 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS COLDER AIR POURS
BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD FOR NWRN PA
AND SWRN NY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH STARTING LATE IN THE
NEAR TERM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BFD REMAINS WITH A MVFR CEILING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.

LIGHT NOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 2-4PM IN
THE BRADFORD AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN
ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE-WILLIAMSPORT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...BLUSTERY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELT AREAS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP THIS AFTN
GENLY FM ARND PIT NWD WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND
RELATIVE MSTR OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80
CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM THIS EVE WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/CL





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP THIS AFTN
GENLY FM ARND PIT NWD WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND
RELATIVE MSTR OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80
CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM THIS EVE WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/CL





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP THIS AFTN
GENLY FM ARND PIT NWD WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND
RELATIVE MSTR OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80
CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM THIS EVE WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/CL





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191728
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP THIS AFTN
GENLY FM ARND PIT NWD WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND
RELATIVE MSTR OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80
CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM THIS EVE WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/CL





000
FXUS61 KPHI 191529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1029 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1029 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1029 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1029 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST POPS AND WORDING
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE ADVN OF THE SHRTWV ACRS THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP
THIS AFTN WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND RELATIVE MSTR
OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS AS THERE IS MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST POPS AND WORDING
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE ADVN OF THE SHRTWV ACRS THE
MIDWEST. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO DVLP
THIS AFTN WITH FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND RELATIVE MSTR
OFFSET BY A DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO ABOUT AN INCH AT BEST OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM WL REINITIATE COLD ADVCTN OVR THE
AREA...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES AND INVERSION LVLS SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHWR MENTION WL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
RIDGES AND NRN I 80 CORRIDOR.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT IN GENL...SUB AVG READINGS WL CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS AS THERE IS MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191522
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1022 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GR LAKES.

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY
FLURRIES WILL BE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NW MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS VERY LIGHT ACTIVITY.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL SPREAD A GROWING SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AND AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE BASED ON THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SREF
MEAN SNOW ACCUMS. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP
EVENT. SREF PLUMES EVEN SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COATING
OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EVENING OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT JOHNSTOWN
AND ALTOONA UP THROUGH STATE COLLEGE. IF IT HAPPENS SOME SLIPPERY
TRAVEL COULD ACCOMPANY AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS YESTERDAY IN THE
MODERATING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY...AND BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE FOR THURSDAY
WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THE SINGLE...INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN FAR NW PENN AND SW
NEW YORK THROUGH DUSK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD AND
MORE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU
AND SCATTERED FLURRIES /AT MOST/ ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST AND DEEPENS. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...TO AROUND 40F IN THE FAR SE INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS ARE STRUGGLING WITH SOME MVFR RANGE
CEILINGS...WITH BFD EVEN COMING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-4 MILE RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID DAY AS LOW CLOUDS LIFT NORTHEAST...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA REMAINING VFR THROUGH LATE DAY.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...BUT SPEEDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WILL
BE COMMON TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NW. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MAY EVEN REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
EVENING AS VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KCTP 191242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...
USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE MEAN...SFC-850 MB FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY
FLURRIES WILL BE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SCENT MTNS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A
LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT
219. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.

TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO THE TEENS.

A 6-10 KT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF
AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ APPEAR TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SQUEAK BY AND
STAND...THANKS TO THE WEST-SWRLY BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN MOST PLACES FOR THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

A FAST-MOVING /ALBEIT RATHER FLAT/ UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CLIPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE /AND ITS SOUTHEAST EXTENDING WARM
FRONT/ SHOULD SPREAD A GROWING SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AND AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE 3 INCHES BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THIS /FIRST ROUND/ OF SNOW WILL EQUATE
TO THE SUB- ADVISORY CATEGORY.

THE FORCING FOR THIS PERIOD OF STRATIFORM SNOW WILL BE RELATED TO
MDT TO STG WAA AT THE NOSE OF A PLUS 3 ST DEVIATION SWRLY LLJ AND
RIBBON OF 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER /LIGHT/
SNOW WILL ALSO BE TIED TO THE BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE WEST
OF THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
FURTHER TO THE SE.

TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS YESTERDAY IN THE
MODERATING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY...AND BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE FOR THURSDAY
WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THE SINGLE...INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN FAR NW PENN AND SW
NEW YORK THROUGH DUSK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD AND
MORE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU
AND SCATTERED FLURRIES /AT MOST/ ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST AND DEEPENS. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...TO AROUND 40F IN THE FAR SE INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR AT MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION IS KJST
WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS /AND BREIFLY AT KAOO/. THESE
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. GUSTINESS OF THE WIND HAS
DIMINISHED...BUT SPEEDS OF 10G20KT WILL BE COMMON TODAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NW /MVFR TO SHORT
PERIOD OF IFR/ DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE
OF A SHORTWAVE. BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-
KUNV- KIPT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN
AND INVERSION LOWERS...WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL
REDUCTIONS AROUND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...
USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE MEAN...SFC-850 MB FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY
FLURRIES WILL BE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SCENT MTNS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A
LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT
219. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.

TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO THE TEENS.

A 6-10 KT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF
AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ APPEAR TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SQUEAK BY AND
STAND...THANKS TO THE WEST-SWRLY BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN MOST PLACES FOR THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

A FAST-MOVING /ALBEIT RATHER FLAT/ UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CLIPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE /AND ITS SOUTHEAST EXTENDING WARM
FRONT/ SHOULD SPREAD A GROWING SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AND AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE 3 INCHES BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THIS /FIRST ROUND/ OF SNOW WILL EQUATE
TO THE SUB- ADVISORY CATEGORY.

THE FORCING FOR THIS PERIOD OF STRATIFORM SNOW WILL BE RELATED TO
MDT TO STG WAA AT THE NOSE OF A PLUS 3 ST DEVIATION SWRLY LLJ AND
RIBBON OF 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER /LIGHT/
SNOW WILL ALSO BE TIED TO THE BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE WEST
OF THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
FURTHER TO THE SE.

TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS YESTERDAY IN THE
MODERATING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY...AND BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE FOR THURSDAY
WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THE SINGLE...INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN FAR NW PENN AND SW
NEW YORK THROUGH DUSK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD AND
MORE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU
AND SCATTERED FLURRIES /AT MOST/ ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST AND DEEPENS. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...TO AROUND 40F IN THE FAR SE INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR AT MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION IS KJST
WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS /AND BREIFLY AT KAOO/. THESE
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. GUSTINESS OF THE WIND HAS
DIMINISHED...BUT SPEEDS OF 10G20KT WILL BE COMMON TODAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NW /MVFR TO SHORT
PERIOD OF IFR/ DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE
OF A SHORTWAVE. BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-
KUNV- KIPT LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN
AND INVERSION LOWERS...WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL
REDUCTIONS AROUND KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191235
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WORDING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
OF RADAR AND SATELLITE. ISOLD TO SCT LGT SN SHWRS THIS MRNG ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW
EVENT WITH THE ADVN AND CROSSING OF AS SHRTWV THROUGH THE BASE OF
BROAD...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR LOW PRES CNTRD OVR THE HUDSON BAY AREA.
FAVORABLE MID...UPR DYNAMICS AND RELATIVE MSTR WL BE OFFSET BY A
DRY BNDRY LYR. ACCUMULATION IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT AN INCH OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCTP 191057
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...
USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE MEAN...SFC-850 MB FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY
FLURRIES WILL BE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SCENT MTNS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A
LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW ON THE RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT
219. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.

TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO THE TEENS.

A 6-10 KT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF
AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ APPEAR TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SQUEAK BY AND
STAND...THANKS TO THE WEST-SWRLY BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER DEG OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AFTERWARD...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN MOST PLACES FOR THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

A FAST-MOVING /ALBEIT RATHER FLAT/ UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CLIPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE /AND ITS SOUTHEAST EXTENDING WARM
FRONT/ SHOULD SPREAD A GROWING SHIELD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AND AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE 3 INCHES BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THIS /FIRST ROUND/ OF SNOW WILL EQUATE
TO THE SUB- ADVISORY CATEGORY.

THE FORCING FOR THIS PERIOD OF STRATIFORM SNOW WILL BE RELATED TO
MDT TO STG WAA AT THE NOSE OF A PLUS 3 ST DEVIATION SWRLY LLJ AND
RIBBON OF 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER /LIGHT/
SNOW WILL ALSO BE TIED TO THE BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO THE WEST
OF THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
FURTHER TO THE SE.

TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS YESTERDAY IN THE
MODERATING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY...AND BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE FOR THURSDAY
WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THE SINGLE...INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN FAR NW PENN AND SW
NEW YORK THROUGH DUSK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD AND
MORE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU
AND SCATTERED FLURRIES /AT MOST/ ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START OUT IN THE L-M 20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS
AND LAURELS...BUT STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES EAST AND DEEPENS. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...TO AROUND 40F IN THE FAR SE INVOF KTHV AND KLNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE MEAN WIND IN THE SFC-2 KM LAYER VEERS TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UP
TO SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WHERE LES
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 12 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES TO THE WEST OF KBFD.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. KJST
BEING THE EXCEPTION AS OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTINESS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN MANY LOCALES...BUT GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT.

DAYTIME HOURS OF WED WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
TURN TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BY
AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /MVFR TO SHORT PERIOD OF IFR/ IN THE NW DUE
TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
549 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
630 AM UPDATE...GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190925 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190925 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190925 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190925 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190924
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
424 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190924
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
424 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THIS WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190850
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY
BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO
COVER THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190850
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES IN
AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE WAA
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND THUS NOT HELP MUCH
TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS TO CAPTURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
THRU DAYBREAK FOR THE PHILLY AND SOUTHERN NJ TERMINALS. WLY WINDS
BECOME SWLY THIS AFTN AND EVEN SLY AROUND SUNSET.

BY 06Z THURSDAY, SW WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 50 KT AT 3000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE NOTABLE, MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT INDICATE IT
QUITE MEETING LLWS CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. CFP THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN WLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY
BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO
COVER THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATING AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ANALYZE THE NEWEST SET OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING WHICH MARINE HEADLINE IS BEST SUITED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 190842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MEAN...WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP
IT NORTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE REST OF THE THE MID MORNING.

AN AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY FLURRIES WILL BE
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT 219.

ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL DROP TO VERY COLD READINGS
FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH SUNRISE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 10-15F ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATELY GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF 5 TO
10 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORDS LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ WILL LIKELY BE TIED...OR BROKEN BY A FEW DEG
F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. WAA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS.

PER LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO 90-100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT
THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND VCNTY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWER OF A
MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TUESDAY IN THE MODERATING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER CROSSING THE UPPER GLAKES AND SRN
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMP READINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. KJST
BEING THE EXCEPTION AS OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTINESS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN MANY LOCALES...BUT GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT.

DAYTIME HOURS OF WED WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
TURN TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BY
AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /MVFR TO SHORT PERIOD OF IFR/ IN THE NW DUE
TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MEAN...WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP
IT NORTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE REST OF THE THE MID MORNING.

AN AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY FLURRIES WILL BE
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT 219.

ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL DROP TO VERY COLD READINGS
FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH SUNRISE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 10-15F ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATELY GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF 5 TO
10 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORDS LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ WILL LIKELY BE TIED...OR BROKEN BY A FEW DEG
F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. WAA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS.

PER LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO 90-100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT
THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND VCNTY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWER OF A
MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TUESDAY IN THE MODERATING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER CROSSING THE UPPER GLAKES AND SRN
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMP READINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. KJST
BEING THE EXCEPTION AS OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTINESS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN MANY LOCALES...BUT GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT.

DAYTIME HOURS OF WED WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
TURN TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BY
AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /MVFR TO SHORT PERIOD OF IFR/ IN THE NW DUE
TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MEAN...WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP
IT NORTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE REST OF THE THE MID MORNING.

AN AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY FLURRIES WILL BE
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT 219.

ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL DROP TO VERY COLD READINGS
FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH SUNRISE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 10-15F ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATELY GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF 5 TO
10 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORDS LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ WILL LIKELY BE TIED...OR BROKEN BY A FEW DEG
F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. WAA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS.

PER LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO 90-100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT
THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND VCNTY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWER OF A
MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TUESDAY IN THE MODERATING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER CROSSING THE UPPER GLAKES AND SRN
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMP READINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. KJST
BEING THE EXCEPTION AS OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTINESS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN MANY LOCALES...BUT GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT.

DAYTIME HOURS OF WED WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
TURN TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BY
AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /MVFR TO SHORT PERIOD OF IFR/ IN THE NW DUE
TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190842
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MEAN...WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP
IT NORTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE REST OF THE THE MID MORNING.

AN AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY FLURRIES WILL BE
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT 219.

ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL DROP TO VERY COLD READINGS
FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH SUNRISE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 10-15F ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATELY GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF 5 TO
10 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORDS LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ WILL LIKELY BE TIED...OR BROKEN BY A FEW DEG
F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. WAA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS.

PER LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO 90-100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT
THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND VCNTY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWER OF A
MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TUESDAY IN THE MODERATING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER CROSSING THE UPPER GLAKES AND SRN
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMP READINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT MOST TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. KJST
BEING THE EXCEPTION AS OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTINESS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH IN MANY LOCALES...BUT GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS CONTINUE FROM
KJST-KUNV-KIPT.

DAYTIME HOURS OF WED WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
TURN TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BY
AFTERNOON...MID CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING /MVFR TO SHORT PERIOD OF IFR/ IN THE NW DUE
TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS FROM -SHSN MAY REACH AN KAOO-KUNV-KIPT LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190709
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY ONSLAUGHT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL
OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MEAN...WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP
IT NORTH OF OUR AREA THRU THE REST OF THE THE MID MORNING.

AN AREA OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS...AND MAINLY FLURRIES WILL BE
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LIGHT ADDITIONAL POWDERY COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND GENERALLY WEST OF RT 219.

ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE...SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL DROP TO VERY COLD READINGS
FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH SUNRISE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 10-15F ELSEWHERE.

A MODERATELY GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE A WIND CHILL OF 5 TO
10 BELOW ACROSS THE MTNS...AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.

RECORDS LOWS FOR THIS DATE AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES OF KIPT
/13F/ AND KMDT /18F/ WILL LIKELY BE TIED...OR BROKEN BY A FEW DEG
F.
&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. WAA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO BASED ON SREF MEAN SNOW ACCUMS.

PER LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO 90-100 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT
THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND VCNTY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TODAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWER OF A
MID CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TUESDAY IN THE MODERATING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER CROSSING THE UPPER GLAKES AND SRN
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMP READINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
20S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
SUPPORT VFR AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KBFD..SKC FOR A BIT
EARLIER THIS EVE SHOULD REGAIN SC DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE LATER
THIS EVE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190607 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ISO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY MORNING.
COLDEST AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190607 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ISO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY MORNING.
COLDEST AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
0205 AM EST WED NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ISO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY MORNING.
COLDEST AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190605
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
0205 AM EST WED NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ISO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY MORNING.
COLDEST AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS GENERATED BY THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WERE INVERSIONS ARE HIGHER AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING
IS MORE SATURATED.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
PLUNGES BACK INTO THE REGION. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER...AS WILL THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WINDS AT 85H WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...PREVENTING ANY INFLUX OF LAKE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE. DON`T REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCE.

CAA WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST WHICH COULD MEAN SOME LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SWING THE WINDS AT 85O TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN
THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING WAA TO COMMENCE.
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CEASE SHORTLY AS LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LIFT...AND EXPECT SNOW TO NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN...AT WHICH TIME THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KCTP 190359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD STAY CONFINED WITHIN ABOUT 10
MILES OF OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP IT NORTH OF OUR AREA
THRU THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN PA
HAS SPREAD -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU ARND
06Z...THEN A DIMINISHING CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LIMITED BLYR MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT NO MORE THAN LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE W MTNS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLE COLD. TEMPS AT 04Z ARE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE TEENS
AND EXPECT READINGS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY DAWN. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORDS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVR THE W MTNS...TO THE UTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO BTWN 5-10 BLW
ZERO OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BY DAWN WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO. BASED ON LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NR 80 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...EXPECT THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TODAY IN MILDER SW FLOW
AHEAD OF CLIPPER. AFTN READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
SUPPORT VFR AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KBFD..SKC FOR A BIT
EARLIER THIS EVE SHOULD REGAIN SC DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE LATER
THIS EVE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190359
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD STAY CONFINED WITHIN ABOUT 10
MILES OF OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WSW BLYR FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING AND NR TERM MDLS KEEP IT NORTH OF OUR AREA
THRU THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN PA
HAS SPREAD -SHSN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THRU ARND
06Z...THEN A DIMINISHING CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LIMITED BLYR MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT NO MORE THAN LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE W MTNS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLE COLD. TEMPS AT 04Z ARE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE TEENS
AND EXPECT READINGS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY DAWN. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORDS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVR THE W MTNS...TO THE UTEENS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO BTWN 5-10 BLW
ZERO OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BY DAWN WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC
CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY. WAA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY OF AN INCH OR TWO. BASED ON LATEST OPER AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NR 80 PCT ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...EXPECT THICKENING MID CLOUDS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
FAR SE AS A KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE.

TEMPS/WCHILLS WILL NOT BE AS HARSH AS TODAY IN MILDER SW FLOW
AHEAD OF CLIPPER. AFTN READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 20S OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA...TO L30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR /BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE
TODAY...WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
TRY TO BECOME MORE FROM THE NW LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUE.

DID UP POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURGE OF
MILDER AIR IS INDICATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD
SUPPORT VFR AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KBFD..SKC FOR A BIT
EARLIER THIS EVE SHOULD REGAIN SC DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE LATER
THIS EVE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

THU...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STILL A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW.

FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST/NORTH.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190311
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1011 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK WAVE IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IS MANAGING TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT SUCH THAT SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE LAYER SATURATION IS
POOR...THE FACT THAT CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE
ENTIRELY IN THE -12 TO -20C LAYER SEEMS TO BE ENABLING WEAK LIFT
AND MODEST SATURATION TO MANIFEST INTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRY OBSERVATIONS YIELDING BREIF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INTO
THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS WEAK WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AM HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FLURRY COVERAGE IN MOST SPOTS.
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING
IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE.

OTHERWISE...POOR DIURNAL RISES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS READINGS AGAIN LOOK TO BE
IN STORE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THAT DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A WEDNESDAY CROSSING WITH
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND RELATIVE MSTR FOR A BOUT OF LGT
SNOW...ACCUMULATION FM WHICH...ALBEIT LGT...IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF I 70. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW...WITH A LACK OF LAKE FETCH LIMITING SN SHWR POTENTIAL.
SCTD SN SHWRS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPRESS THAT LTD POTENTIAL AND BGN A TEMP MODERATION
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENTUAL SW FLOW IS EXPD TO DVLP OVR THE WKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF
ADVNS ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS. SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE
TROF ARE EXPD TO BRING INCRG SHWR CHCS LTR IN THE WKEND INTO ERLY
NXT WK AS THEY ADVNS ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN.

A WRMG TREND IS FCST AS TEMPS INCR FM BLO AVG SAT...TO SVRL DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS BY ERLY IN THE WK. THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A CDFNT
WITH ONE OF THE ERLY WK SHRTWVS IS EXPD TO BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO AVG
BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING BROKEN
SKIES BACK OVER MOST SITES AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL
SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
MORE RSTRNS ARE EXPD THRU LATE WEEK AS COLD UPR LOW CONTS TO
PLAGUE THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190311
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1011 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK WAVE IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IS MANAGING TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT SUCH THAT SNOW SHOWER AND
FLURRY ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE LAYER SATURATION IS
POOR...THE FACT THAT CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE
ENTIRELY IN THE -12 TO -20C LAYER SEEMS TO BE ENABLING WEAK LIFT
AND MODEST SATURATION TO MANIFEST INTO A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRY OBSERVATIONS YIELDING BREIF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INTO
THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS WEAK WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AM HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FLURRY COVERAGE IN MOST SPOTS.
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING
IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE.

OTHERWISE...POOR DIURNAL RISES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS READINGS AGAIN LOOK TO BE
IN STORE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THAT DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A WEDNESDAY CROSSING WITH
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND RELATIVE MSTR FOR A BOUT OF LGT
SNOW...ACCUMULATION FM WHICH...ALBEIT LGT...IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF I 70. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW...WITH A LACK OF LAKE FETCH LIMITING SN SHWR POTENTIAL.
SCTD SN SHWRS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPRESS THAT LTD POTENTIAL AND BGN A TEMP MODERATION
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENTUAL SW FLOW IS EXPD TO DVLP OVR THE WKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF
ADVNS ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS. SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE BASE OF THE
TROF ARE EXPD TO BRING INCRG SHWR CHCS LTR IN THE WKEND INTO ERLY
NXT WK AS THEY ADVNS ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN.

A WRMG TREND IS FCST AS TEMPS INCR FM BLO AVG SAT...TO SVRL DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS BY ERLY IN THE WK. THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A CDFNT
WITH ONE OF THE ERLY WK SHRTWVS IS EXPD TO BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO AVG
BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BRINGING BROKEN
SKIES BACK OVER MOST SITES AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL
SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...
MORE RSTRNS ARE EXPD THRU LATE WEEK AS COLD UPR LOW CONTS TO
PLAGUE THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR TODAY IN PITTSBURGH WAS
28 DEGREES IN 1959.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190240
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME MINOR
HOURLY GRID CHANGES NEEDED. OVERALL, A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT AHEAD AS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BEFORE DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND
ERN AREAS AND THE LOW 30S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM
S/WV TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST  BY 00Z FRI. MEANWHILE...
A PRIMARY S/WV OVER QUEBEC TRANSITING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...THEN A
SECONDARY W/WV CAUSES A WEAKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

BY SATURDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENTERS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMES ASHORE IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. THESE
SEPARATE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO PHASE...LEADING TO A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS
A WARMING TREND. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT EAST CONUS TROUGH REMAINS...
WITH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST..TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
RECENT RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS LONGER
THAN MODELED /ESPECIALLY GIVEN PREDICTABILITY IS LOW/ THIS WOULD
LEAD DELAY TIMING OF THE DOWNSTREAM STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-WEST.
MEANWHILE...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENS ARE ALSO TRENDING
STRONGER W/THE PHASED SOLUTION OVER THE MID-WEST...LEADING TO A
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE ERN CONUS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL LOCK IN THE COLD AIR W/TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PRESENTS THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH MAY BEGIN INITIALLY AS FROZEN PRECIP...ESP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH
THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO SW BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
SPEEDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...VFR. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE THIS EVENING AS THERE
REMAINS SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
DELAWARE BAY AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WE EXPECT THE WIND GUSTS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS,
EVEN WHEN GALE FORCE DIMINISH. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA LIKELY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND AGAIN W/POST-FRONTAL W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT.
ALSO, CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES. WE HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED OUR FORECAST NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS
AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON ARRIVES.

11/19 RECORD LOWS:        11/19 FORECAST LOWS:

ACY 18  1936              ACY  17
PHL 20  1936              PHL  21
ILG 15  1936              ILG  19
ABE 11  1924              ABE  17
TTN 17  1936              TTN  19
GED 20  1959              GED  18
RDG 18  1936              RDG  17
MPO 10  1933              MPO  11

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 190240
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME MINOR
HOURLY GRID CHANGES NEEDED. OVERALL, A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT AHEAD AS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BEFORE DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...REACHING THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTH AND
ERN AREAS AND THE LOW 30S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM
S/WV TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST  BY 00Z FRI. MEANWHILE...
A PRIMARY S/WV OVER QUEBEC TRANSITING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...THEN A
SECONDARY W/WV CAUSES A WEAKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...
WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

BY SATURDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENTERS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMES ASHORE IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. THESE
SEPARATE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO PHASE...LEADING TO A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS
A WARMING TREND. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT EAST CONUS TROUGH REMAINS...
WITH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST..TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
RECENT RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS LONGER
THAN MODELED /ESPECIALLY GIVEN PREDICTABILITY IS LOW/ THIS WOULD
LEAD DELAY TIMING OF THE DOWNSTREAM STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-WEST.
MEANWHILE...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENS ARE ALSO TRENDING
STRONGER W/THE PHASED SOLUTION OVER THE MID-WEST...LEADING TO A
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE ERN CONUS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL LOCK IN THE COLD AIR W/TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PRESENTS THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME...
WHICH MAY BEGIN INITIALLY AS FROZEN PRECIP...ESP IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH
THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO SW BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
SPEEDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...VFR. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTN MAY RESULT IN
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE KEPT THE GALE WARNING IN PLACE THIS EVENING AS THERE
REMAINS SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
DELAWARE BAY AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WE EXPECT THE WIND GUSTS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS,
EVEN WHEN GALE FORCE DIMINISH. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA LIKELY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND AGAIN W/POST-FRONTAL W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT.
ALSO, CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES. WE HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED OUR FORECAST NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS
AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON ARRIVES.

11/19 RECORD LOWS:        11/19 FORECAST LOWS:

ACY 18  1936              ACY  17
PHL 20  1936              PHL  21
ILG 15  1936              ILG  19
ABE 11  1924              ABE  17
TTN 17  1936              TTN  19
GED 20  1959              GED  18
RDG 18  1936              RDG  17
MPO 10  1933              MPO  11

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...STAFF




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