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000
FXUS61 KCTP 260244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RACED UP INTO WESTERN NY...LEAVING CENTRAL PA
VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260244
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RACED UP INTO WESTERN NY...LEAVING CENTRAL PA
VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 260005
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 252300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 252300
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL PA
AIRSPACE JUST EAST OF YNG-ERI-DKK LINE. LATEST HRRR STILL
SUGGESTS ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING BFD VCNTY AROUND
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AT BFD AND VISBYS AT MDT/LNS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTANCE. ALSO CUT BACK MENTION
OF VCTS EARLY TOMORROW BUT WILL LKLY RE-INTRODUCE FOR THE AFTN.

OVERALL...THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251947
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A GENERALLY SUNNY...DRY AND
VERY WARM MEMORIAL TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST...LEADING TO AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG CFRONT WILL PUSH
SE ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSRA THEN MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW
SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

TEMPS AREA NEARING THEIR MAXES AND RANGE FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F BY
21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AND A
BETTER CHC FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SW FLOW /17-22KTS AT TIMES/
COMBINES WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND DRYING FINE
FUELS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH
AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES
TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE.

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN
WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY
ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY
JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
EARLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH
AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES
TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE.

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN
WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY
ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY
JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
EARLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251652
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...AND EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK TO THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA
INVOF KBUF ATTM.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS
AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251652
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
...AND EXTENDING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK TO THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA
INVOF KBUF ATTM.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH...WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN...AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-WDLY SCTD SHRA POP UP ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PENN /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PWAT AXIS
AND IN THE PATH OF THE A FEW SHORTWAVES ALOFT LIFTING NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. SO...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND
VERY WARM DAY TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH A DAILY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF WRN NEW YORK...TO THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OCCUPIES THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT...BENEATH A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

PWATS OF JUST OVER 1 INCH THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN.

SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT /BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB/ WILL LIKELY
PUT A LID ON THE VERY THIN CAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SO...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATE LATE
DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NW MTNS OF PENN...EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY TO HONOR AND CELEBRATE THOSE WHO SACRIFICED FOR OUR
COUNTRY.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.

ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.

ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE ON THIS QUIET MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE ON THIS QUIET MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 251107
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BR AT LNS NOW. SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADD SOME
FOG TO THE TAFS BY TUE AM...AND BRING WINDS BACK DOWN.

THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE LIMITED TO
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z/09Z TAFS SENT. NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY MUI HAS ANY BR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250944
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z/09Z TAFS SENT. NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY MUI HAS ANY BR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250857
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND
ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY.
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO
DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS TO FORM. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30
POPS IN THE FAR NW...BUT SPREAD 20 POPS TO THE EAST A BIT FARTHER
THAN PREV FCSTS. THE NAM IS WETTER THAN MOST OTHER GUID THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...PUSHING VERY LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF UNV. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS
GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW
MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA. TSRA NOT EVEN LIKELY WITH ONLY 200-400
CAPES AT THE BEST OVER THE NW MTNS AND TT/S THAT DO NOT GET TO
50. WILL STILL MENTION T FOR WARREN CO...BUT OMIT FOR OTHER AREAS.

TEMPS ARE QUITE LOFTY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET THE TEMPS OFF
TO A SOLID START TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S...AND ADD 3-5F ONTO THE
MAXES COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING REMNANT MCV/S IN FROM THE VERY ACTIVE PLAINS CONVECTION.
THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL DOUBTLESSLY
TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT MUCH SKILL AT
TIMING THESE THINGS...THE BEST FORECAST IS ONE OF A HIGHER CHC IN
THE AFTERNOON. SPC DOES BRING A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES/TUES NIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HWO
SINCE IT MAY JUST BE TOO CLOUDY TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAX
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN WILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY/TODAY. NEVERLESS...POPS
WILL BE PAINTED HIGHER TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY WILL
BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MID
WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 250808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY
TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN NICELY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HRS AND THE SERN
THIRD OF THE AREA IS GENUINELY IN SUMMER WITH U50 DEWPOINTS. TEMPS
WILL FALL VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE. THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
THE NRN TIER CONTINUE TO BE WELL ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250532
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250328
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
25/03Z UPDATE...LOW RISK FOR MVFR VISBYS AT MDT/LNS DURING THE
PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

25/00Z...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 250200
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM
END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE
VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREA WIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH ON
DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY AT BUOY 65 THERE ARE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG,AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO NORTHERN NJ, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE
MUCH LOWER.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH ON
DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY AT BUOY 65 THERE ARE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG,AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO NORTHERN NJ, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE
MUCH LOWER.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH ON
DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY AT BUOY 65 THERE ARE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG,AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO NORTHERN NJ, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE
MUCH LOWER.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH ON
DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHERLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE.
ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY AT BUOY 65 THERE ARE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG,AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO NORTHERN NJ, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE
MUCH LOWER.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250011
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
811 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL MADE TO THE SKY FIELD. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARING SUNSET...SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NW TO SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE POISED TO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...PUSHING BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CLOUDS TO A MUCH CLEARER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING.

AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250011
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
811 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL MADE TO THE SKY FIELD. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARING SUNSET...SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NW TO SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE POISED TO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...PUSHING BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CLOUDS TO A MUCH CLEARER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING.

AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250011
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
811 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL MADE TO THE SKY FIELD. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARING SUNSET...SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NW TO SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE POISED TO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...PUSHING BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CLOUDS TO A MUCH CLEARER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING.

AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250011
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
811 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL MADE TO THE SKY FIELD. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARING SUNSET...SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NW TO SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE POISED TO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...PUSHING BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CLOUDS TO A MUCH CLEARER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING.

AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUES.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WITH AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION. A SHIELD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL
BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM
24 HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 242345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 242345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 242345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 242345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS
MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG.

WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK
AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT
UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS
WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE
IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL
SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 242232
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREDOMINENTLY REMAIN VFR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LKLY BE
LIMITED TO PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 242001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST AND PWATS INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE
HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, BUT WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED IT IN RDG AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE GUSTS SHOULD BE
STRONGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 241940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY  DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE
AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK
BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND
90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN
AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES.

OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO
PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION.
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT
SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE
HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED
OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, BUT WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED IT IN RDG AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE GUSTS SHOULD BE
STRONGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL
WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40
KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING 2 PM MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241917
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE VEERING SFC WIND HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO
CLIMB IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...OR 4-7F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF
BKN ALTO CU ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES BY LATE
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PWATS INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY FROM 24
HOURS PRIOR...DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR
ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM
FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/.

A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...HOWEVER POPS WILL BE VERY
MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE NW.

IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE. AFTN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING HUMID OR BECOMING HAZY.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD
IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE. TEMPS STAY VERY MILD MON NIGHT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUES AFTN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND THE
L/M60 DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE LATE DAY/EVENING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
JUST AREAS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT SW BREEZE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PREVAIL
ALL DAY MONDAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A
SHIELD OF ALTO CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A
THICKENING...BKN- OVC LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND STAY WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241625
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241625
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241625
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241625
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU
ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST AREAS OF
MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO
CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN-OVC
LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY
WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241545
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS
WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

STREAMERS OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF BKN ALTO CU
ADVECTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INCREASING DUAL LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT S-SW BREEZE TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPS
TO DROP FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE...AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END
FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST AREAS OF
MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH A SHIELD OF ALTO
CU /BASED BETWEEN 10-13KFT AGL/ TOPPED BY A THICKENING...BKN-OVC
LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND STAY
WITH US INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FROM A SWRLY WIND MAX OF
30-35 KTS BASED AS LOW AS 1500 FT AGL.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241504
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MANY AREAS REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME PATCHY CUMULUS BUILD UP. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, A RAIN-FREE FORECAST REMAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 241504
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MANY AREAS REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME PATCHY CUMULUS BUILD UP. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, A RAIN-FREE FORECAST REMAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241248
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
848 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...THEN JUST A FEW /MAINLY THIN CIRRUS/ CLOUDS AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5820M AND 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS WILL PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE
UPPER 70S...AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY
AFTN NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP
FAR BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY
BE A PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A FACTOR
GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241241
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO
FRANKLIN LINE LATE ON MONDAY.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM AND GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH INITIALLY LIMITING EXPLOSIVE
INSTABILITY. THAT SAME WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES
OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241241
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO
FRANKLIN LINE LATE ON MONDAY.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM AND GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH INITIALLY LIMITING EXPLOSIVE
INSTABILITY. THAT SAME WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES
OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241241
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO
FRANKLIN LINE LATE ON MONDAY.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM AND GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH INITIALLY LIMITING EXPLOSIVE
INSTABILITY. THAT SAME WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES
OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241241
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO
FRANKLIN LINE LATE ON MONDAY.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM AND GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH INITIALLY LIMITING EXPLOSIVE
INSTABILITY. THAT SAME WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA
WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES
OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/12 TAF PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 241117
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/12 TAF PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ON THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING OFF SHORE. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PREDICT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PREDICT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PREDICT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE 24/09Z TAFS FROM THE 06Z PACKAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 240852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH
IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE
LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH
IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE
LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH
IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE
LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH
IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE
LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALL WEEK. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TODAY WILL HOLD QUIET WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPS RISING
ABOVE NORMALS. TEMPS RUNNING QUITE A BIT ABOVE FCST AT THIS EARLY
HOUR WITH TEMPS JUST INCHING BELOW 50F IN THE SRN TIER. WILL PULL
MENTIONS OF FROST AS DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH.
THERE COULD STILL BE A POCKET OR TWO IN SHELTERED SPACE FOR MORE
THAN JUST THE CAR WINDOWS TO GET FROSTY. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH MENTIONING. 582 5H HEIGHT AND 8H TEMPS INTO THE TEENS WILL
PUT SOME SRN LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
80F THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP QUICKLY FROM THE LOFTY AFTN
NUMBERS. BUT THE SLIGHT SRLY WIND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO DROP FAR
BELOW 60F IN THE SE AND 50S WILL BE THE BOTTOM END FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE 5-8F ABOVE NORMALS.

PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH TONIGHT AND REACH 1-1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY. BUT WHILE THE MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THE
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND MOST PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA. A STRAY SHOWER AND PERHAPS A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY IN THE WESTERN
MTNS. BUT THE POPS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE WEST. SOME
MDLS CREATE A SPOT OF QPF OVER THE POCONOS/MID SUSQ VALLEY IN THE
AFTN HEAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. NO REASON AT ALL TO
BRING THE PICNIC INSIDE. IT WILL SURELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER. IT WILL
BE IN THE 80S AREA- WIDE BUT AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL
PROBABLY KEEP IT FROM BEING HUMID OR HAZY TO MOST.

AS THE HUMIDITY RISES INTO TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT IN THE WEST AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUES. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE UNTIL TUES
AFTN WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACIS IS NUDGED A LITTLE OFF THE EAST
COAST AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. TEMPS STAY VERY
MILD MON NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S AND 60S. DAYTIME TEMPS
GET INTO THE 80S AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS. AND THE L/M60 DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY. WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY. WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY. WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHT. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY. WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240528
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH ALL OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ALL IS WELL. MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP TREND. STILL LOOKING
LIKE PATCHY FROST IS DEFINITE IN THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS NOW UP
NEAR FREEZING - QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
IF THEY RISE MORE IT MIGHT JUST BE DEW.

PREV...
WE WERE TREATED TO A SPLENDID START TO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH A NEAR PERFECTLY CLEAR AZURE BLUE SKY EARLIER TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHT WIND...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MILD TEMPS...THANKS TO A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND WIND DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATER TONIGHT
WILL COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS /AND SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S/ TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR LOWS UP NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

PATCHY FROST WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN
PENN...BUT IT/S EXTENT AND DURATION SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR 80F IN SOUTHERN PENN.

HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 8H TEMPS ALL RISE NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN SUNDAY
MORNING.

12Z GEFS INDICATES THAT MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR NE ZONES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF A NWRLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND COULD SPARK A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA THERE...WHILE INCREASING
PWATS STREAMING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY TRIGGER A SIMILAR
STRAY LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE WRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER 6-8F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TILT EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST...AND EXTEND DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL STILL EXERT ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME VARIATION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANGES ON PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AND QPF AMOUNTS. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE 00Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POP CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SE PA WILL LIKELY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO
65 DEGREE RANGE...BUT NOT REALLY THAT HIGH FOR LATE MAY. WARM
FRONT ALSO FCST TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR UP NORTH...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY...JUST A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL PRIOR TO 09Z TUE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO 24/06Z TAFS FROM THE 03Z INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO LKLY START TO BE A
FACTOR GIVEN RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

TUE-THU...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT P.M. TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240513
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240513
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240513
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240513
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT AS LAST NIGHT AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RISE BY EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING IS ALSO UNOBTAINABLE DUE TO THE SHORT NIGHTS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND INCREASES CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYS/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAYS NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN
THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAYS AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM TAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND
STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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