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000
FXUS61 KPHI 240546
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE NOW LOWERED THE GLW ON LOWER DEL BAY AS WELL, SO SCA FLAGS
ARE FLYING ACRS ALL OF DEL BAY, WITH GLW CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN.
WILL REASSESS ENDING TIMES WITH THE MRNG PKG ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240546
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE NOW LOWERED THE GLW ON LOWER DEL BAY AS WELL, SO SCA FLAGS
ARE FLYING ACRS ALL OF DEL BAY, WITH GLW CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN.
WILL REASSESS ENDING TIMES WITH THE MRNG PKG ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 240327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PA. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN
ACTIVE NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS
EASTERN PA. THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A
BIT OF FROST CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY
WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PA. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN
ACTIVE NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS
EASTERN PA. THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A
BIT OF FROST CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY
WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 240152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THUS FAR TONIGHT. ONLY MADE
SOME HOURLY CHANGES, THE BIGGEST THING BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THUS FAR TONIGHT. ONLY MADE
SOME HOURLY CHANGES, THE BIGGEST THING BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 240025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLING SFC TEMPS...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON NW
FLOW...HAS CAUSED STRATO-CU TO BREAK UP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LATEST IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
CLEAR BY AROUND 01Z.

DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN ACTIVE
NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS EASTERN PA.
THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A BIT OF FROST
CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING IS THAT THE WIND
WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS JUNCTURE
FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY
WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 240025
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COOLING SFC TEMPS...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON NW
FLOW...HAS CAUSED STRATO-CU TO BREAK UP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LATEST IR LOOP SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
CLEAR BY AROUND 01Z.

DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN ACTIVE
NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS EASTERN PA.
THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A BIT OF FROST
CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING IS THAT THE WIND
WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS JUNCTURE
FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY
WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 232342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
742 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON/KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 232119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVR THE
REGION. SETTING SUN...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON
NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVR THE
REGION. SETTING SUN...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON
NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVR THE
REGION. SETTING SUN...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON
NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232119
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVR THE
REGION. SETTING SUN...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ON
NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 232006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ENTERING NWRN PA AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
THINNING OVERALL AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING HIGH. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE



000
FXUS61 KCTP 232006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ENTERING NWRN PA AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
THINNING OVERALL AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING HIGH. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KCTP 231804
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ENTERING NWRN PA AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
THINNING OVERALL AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING HIGH. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 231518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 231409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231409
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KCTP 231129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA FROM
KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231126
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 231126
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO THINK IT IS WINTER RATHER THAN
THE EARLY SPRING. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW
FROM CENTRAL PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES
ITS TIME WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY MAINLY SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
TODAY.

ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG C OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE BLYR
TODAY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL..AND VARYING FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO KEEP THE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING.

HOURLY TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH SUNRISE MINS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE AS THE I-99/ROUTE
220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH JUST SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LEAD TO A
GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE
W MTNS. HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
40S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY MAINLY SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
TODAY.

ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG C OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE BLYR
TODAY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL..AND VARYING FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO KEEP THE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING.

HOURLY TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH SUNRISE MINS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE AS THE I-99/ROUTE
220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH JUST SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LEAD TO A
GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE
W MTNS. HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
40S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY MAINLY SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
TODAY.

ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG C OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE BLYR
TODAY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL..AND VARYING FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO KEEP THE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING.

HOURLY TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH SUNRISE MINS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE AS THE I-99/ROUTE
220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH JUST SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LEAD TO A
GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE
W MTNS. HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
40S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY MAINLY SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
TODAY.

ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEG C OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE BLYR
TODAY...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL..AND VARYING FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO KEEP THE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY JUST ABV FREEZING.

HOURLY TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH SUNRISE MINS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE AS THE I-99/ROUTE
220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH JUST SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LEAD TO A
GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE
W MTNS. HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
40S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/.

POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KCTP 230608
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED FAR SOUTHEASTERN PA AS OF 05Z.

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATES 70/81...AND COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EARLY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER 2 OR 3C OF COLD ADVECTION
OCCURS WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER.

THE AIR HAD BECOME COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN /CHANGING TO -SHSN/ WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE
AS THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH
JUST SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS WILL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...TO MID 20KT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE VERTICAL MIXING /AND PEAK WIND GUSTS/ INCREASES
BENEATH THE DEEPEST COLD AIR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30KTS BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.

HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH DAYBREAK MINS AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A MAINLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NWS OFFICES...WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 15Z
TODAY TO 00Z THU FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY
AND NORTHWARD TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 230608
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED FAR SOUTHEASTERN PA AS OF 05Z.

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATES 70/81...AND COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EARLY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER 2 OR 3C OF COLD ADVECTION
OCCURS WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER.

THE AIR HAD BECOME COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN /CHANGING TO -SHSN/ WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE
AS THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH
JUST SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS WILL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...TO MID 20KT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE VERTICAL MIXING /AND PEAK WIND GUSTS/ INCREASES
BENEATH THE DEEPEST COLD AIR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30KTS BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.

HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH DAYBREAK MINS AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A MAINLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NWS OFFICES...WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 15Z
TODAY TO 00Z THU FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY
AND NORTHWARD TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230540
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION AS OF 01Z. SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY BASED ON 01Z OBS. HOWEVER...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND LACK OF REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FROPA OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 01Z-03Z.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING NW PA IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS. SCT -SHRA
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
SURVIVING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BLYR
SHOULD PRODUCE SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO ARND 30MPH LATE
TONIGHT...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVR PA.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POSTFRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 230155
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION AS OF 01Z. SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY BASED ON 01Z OBS. HOWEVER...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND LACK OF REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FROPA OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 01Z-03Z.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING NW PA IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS. SCT -SHRA
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
SURVIVING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BLYR
SHOULD PRODUCE SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO ARND 30MPH LATE
TONIGHT...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVR PA.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE
STATE BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH
BRIEF WIND GUSTS HAVE EXITED MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA...BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO
BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 230155
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
955 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION AS OF 01Z. SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY BASED ON 01Z OBS. HOWEVER...LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND LACK OF REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY FROPA OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 01Z-03Z.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS MCLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY AS OF 01Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ALREADY OVERSPREADING NW PA IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS. SCT -SHRA
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
SURVIVING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BLYR
SHOULD PRODUCE SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW WINDS WILL GUST TO ARND 30MPH LATE
TONIGHT...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVR PA.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE
STATE BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH
BRIEF WIND GUSTS HAVE EXITED MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA...BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO
BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN APART. THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS, ONE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE POCONOS THAT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION A BIT LATER AS THE MAIN FRONT
ARRIVES. BASED ON OBS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT
RAN THE COLD FRONT, SO THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KCTP 230052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
852 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE
STATE BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH
BRIEF WIND GUSTS HAVE EXITED MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA...BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO
BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KCTP 222116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222116
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221820
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 221820
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221818
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SHOWER BAND PASSED WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...BUT COLD FRONT IS NOW PRESSING ESE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACCOMPANY THE SMALL STORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AS MUCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ARE
REALIZED. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT-SUN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221623
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING
THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KCTP 221414
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROCHING FRONT
NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. LATER FROPA ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY MAY ENABLE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM MEAGER
CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE.

HIGHS TODAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING GRADUAL
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT.

FROPA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A TSTORM MAINLY IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS AFT...BUT THE RAIN WILL END...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT
SPECIFIC POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SECONDARY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS NW HALF
AND BRINGING LIGHT SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 221414
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROCHING FRONT
NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. LATER FROPA ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY MAY ENABLE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM MEAGER
CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE.

HIGHS TODAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING GRADUAL
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT.

FROPA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A TSTORM MAINLY IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS AFT...BUT THE RAIN WILL END...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT
SPECIFIC POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SECONDARY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS NW HALF
AND BRINGING LIGHT SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 221201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING GRADUAL
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT.

FROPA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A TSTORM MAINLY IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS AFT...BUT THE RAIN WILL END...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT
SPECIFIC POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SECONDARY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS NW HALF
AND BRINGING LIGHT SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 221201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING GRADUAL
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT.

FROPA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A TSTORM MAINLY IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY THIS AFT...BUT THE RAIN WILL END...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT
SPECIFIC POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SECONDARY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS NW HALF
AND BRINGING LIGHT SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KCTP 220942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 220942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DETROIT TO INDIANAPOLIS AT
DAYBREAK TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR /AROUND 1.00 INCH/ WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND
00Z WED.

THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED PERIOD WILL
BE 90-100 PERCENT...THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND AOB 0.25. SFC AND MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL ALSO BE QUITE MEAGER
AND ONLY A FEW TO SVRL HUNDRED J/KG...THANKS TO WIDESPREAD AND
FAIRLY THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SHORT IN STATURE...
ISOLATED...AND SHORT-LIVED.

THE TIMING OF THE CFROPA SHOULD BE ABOUT 14-16Z ACROSS THE NW MTNS
18-21Z THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF PA...AND
ABOUT 22-23Z IN THE FAR SE ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NW MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING
POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S IN THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY
3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCTP 220736
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THICKENING MID AND HI CLOUDS /AND A LIGHT SWRLY SFC WIND/ SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN ATTM WILL GREATLY TRIM THE TEMP
DROP FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /WITH MINS BETWEEN
50-55F/...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SEVERAL MORE DEG F...TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S.

CONSENSUS ON PRECIP TIMING REMAINS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE OR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE NW. GFS BRINGS SPRINKLES IN A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER. ANY SHOWERS BEFORE 12Z WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...MOST LIKELY FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD BASE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA TODAY...AND TIMING OF FROPA FROM
15Z TO 20Z IS SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...WITH MUCAPES ONLY IN THE 300-450 J/KG RANGE...LIKELY
LIMITED BY SFC DEWPOINTS. STILL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN SOME 25 TO 35KT GUSTS AND EXPECT TO SEE A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND FEATURE WITH THE FROPA. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONG JET MAX AND RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.

MAXES WILL OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z WED WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY 3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY
CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z
THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN
TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING
REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TUES
EVE/EARLY TUES NIGHT. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL
REBOUND ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 220736
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THICKENING MID AND HI CLOUDS /AND A LIGHT SWRLY SFC WIND/ SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN ATTM WILL GREATLY TRIM THE TEMP
DROP FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /WITH MINS BETWEEN
50-55F/...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SEVERAL MORE DEG F...TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S.

CONSENSUS ON PRECIP TIMING REMAINS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE OR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE NW. GFS BRINGS SPRINKLES IN A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER. ANY SHOWERS BEFORE 12Z WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...MOST LIKELY FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD BASE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL PA TODAY...AND TIMING OF FROPA FROM
15Z TO 20Z IS SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...WITH MUCAPES ONLY IN THE 300-450 J/KG RANGE...LIKELY
LIMITED BY SFC DEWPOINTS. STILL...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN SOME 25 TO 35KT GUSTS AND EXPECT TO SEE A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND FEATURE WITH THE FROPA. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONG JET MAX AND RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.

MAXES WILL OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z WED WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH DAY 3/WED...AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY
CLOSES-OFF NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE/SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z
THURS. THIS SHOULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN
TRANSITION FROM MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE TO A BLOCKY/SLOWER-EVOLVING
REGIME BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TUES
EVE/EARLY TUES NIGHT. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL
REBOUND ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT AND
NW WIND TO PREVENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHC FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM AND
MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER SERN CANADA AND PERHAPS THE NERN US.
THE 21/12Z GFS ARE STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE
21/00Z ECMWF AND 21/12Z GEFS ARE NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA/NERN US. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE...OPTED FOR A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN/POP WHICH
RESULTED IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LOW PROBS FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA...STARTING IN THE
NW BY 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
21ZZ. ENOUGH CAPE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE
SUSQ VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AT SPECIFIC
POINTS TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
WED WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH LIKELY. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING
MID EVE BEHIND FRONT...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS REMAINDER OF
AREA VFR.


OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR




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