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000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 191953
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
MID RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS
KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY
STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD DROP
EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
TO THE NW TO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF PA.
 THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191953
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
MID RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE FRONT LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS
KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY
STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD DROP
EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
TO THE NW TO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF PA.
 THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191905
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG...TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR TODAY
HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
NRN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH MID 60S IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN OCCURRING ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER THE THICKER MID DECK
ARRIVES.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD /INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 16Z HRRR
RUN/ SUGGESTS THAT ALL OF THE REGION /EXCEPT FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN BEGIN AROUND
5-6PM /21-22Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN MOVES TO NEAR A
KBFD...TO KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01-02Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS /APPROX 4 SIGMA/ SOUTHERLY LLJ SLIDES NE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PLUS
2-3 SIGMA RANGE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SCENT MTNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE 1
INCH/12 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THERE/S ACTUALLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW PROBABILITY FOR UP
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND CREST OF THE LAURELS. IF
RAINFALL AMTS DO REACH 2 INCHES IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD...THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL STREAM...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10F ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MINS EARLY MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS AN AXIS OF 60-70 KT S-SE WIND
IN THE 3-5 KFT AGL LAYER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TYPICALLY
MOST RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL DO NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS DURING STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...SOME
BORDERLINE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
RIDGE TOPS...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE HIGHER RIDGE-LINES
/AND GAPS IN THOSE SAME RIDGES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE STEADY STRATIFORM...WARM FRONTAL RAINS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN END FOR A WHILE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LOWER TO MID
SUSQ VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT /AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET/ WILL
COMBINE WITH THE 1-1.5 INCH PWATS TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.50.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING
PEAK HEATING MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
MANY CONVECTIVE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS /NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI STNRY FRONT/ ACROSS SCENT PENN AND THE MIDDLE-LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. THE MAIN
SVR THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH EHI/S IN THE 2-4 M2/S2
RANGE NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY AND 00Z
TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LAURELS/ AND
TONIGHT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/...THEN ALONG A
KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT LINE BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z MONDAY.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE...AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS LIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK
STATE. ALL TAF SITES CONTAIN LLWS TONIGHT.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SVR
/ESP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN PENN WHERE A QUASI-STNRY FRONT WILL
RESIDE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT/.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCTD TSRA AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE TIMEFRAME OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
SPREAD IS VERY NARROW...AND WILL NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE IN OR JUST EAST OF THE RIDGES AT 00Z TUESDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA CHANCES GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CEASE AREAWIDE BY 12Z.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DECAYING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING UPPER LOW...WHICH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A TROUGHING
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE DETAILS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC
WITH TIME.

MAIN VORT LOBE RESIDES IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY. THIS PLUS BETTER INSTABILITY LEADS TO HIGHER POPS IN THIS
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HELD OFF ON THUNDER FOR NOW WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY BELOW 15K FEET...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED.

A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT...MORE ORGANIZED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN NORTH OF PIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN.

A GENERAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE SEEN WITH VALUES
SINKING BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE IN OR JUST EAST OF THE RIDGES AT 00Z TUESDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA CHANCES GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CEASE AREAWIDE BY 12Z.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DECAYING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING UPPER LOW...WHICH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A TROUGHING
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE DETAILS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC
WITH TIME.

MAIN VORT LOBE RESIDES IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY. THIS PLUS BETTER INSTABILITY LEADS TO HIGHER POPS IN THIS
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HELD OFF ON THUNDER FOR NOW WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY BELOW 15K FEET...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED.

A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT...MORE ORGANIZED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN NORTH OF PIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN.

A GENERAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE SEEN WITH VALUES
SINKING BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE IN OR JUST EAST OF THE RIDGES AT 00Z TUESDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA CHANCES GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CEASE AREAWIDE BY 12Z.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DECAYING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING UPPER LOW...WHICH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A TROUGHING
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE DETAILS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC
WITH TIME.

MAIN VORT LOBE RESIDES IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY. THIS PLUS BETTER INSTABILITY LEADS TO HIGHER POPS IN THIS
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HELD OFF ON THUNDER FOR NOW WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY BELOW 15K FEET...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED.

A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT...MORE ORGANIZED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN NORTH OF PIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN.

A GENERAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE SEEN WITH VALUES
SINKING BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE IN OR JUST EAST OF THE RIDGES AT 00Z TUESDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
AIR. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA CHANCES GOING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
CEASE AREAWIDE BY 12Z.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DECAYING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING UPPER LOW...WHICH DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A TROUGHING
PATTERN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE DETAILS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC
WITH TIME.

MAIN VORT LOBE RESIDES IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY. THIS PLUS BETTER INSTABILITY LEADS TO HIGHER POPS IN THIS
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HELD OFF ON THUNDER FOR NOW WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY BELOW 15K FEET...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED.

A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW
SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT...MORE ORGANIZED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN NORTH OF PIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN.

A GENERAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE SEEN WITH VALUES
SINKING BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS KEPT THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AT
BAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN AIDED...AT LEAST
IN PART...BY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 25KTS.

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH FIRST AS
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. TIMING
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. KEEPING
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL...RESULTING IN TRIMMING OF QPF
GENERATION. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE VARIOUS OTHER HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH OUR AREA.

TONIGHT THE DRY SLOT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH TO
THE POINT WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING COULD AID THE MONDAY MORNING
WARM-UP AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY. COLDER AIR
ADVANCING EASTWARD ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN TO FALL
OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS INITIALLY...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
THE CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. CEILINGS MAY BE
BROKEN AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS IT VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191621
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER...THICKER CIRROSTRATUS HAS THINNED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NEPA...BUT THIS WINDOW WILL BE FLEETING AS THICKENING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN 4-6 HOURS AFTERWARD.

THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS A FEW-SVRL
DEG F ABOVE FCST HOURLY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING...BUT NOT
MUCH ABOVE ACTUAL FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY. SOME MAX TEMP TWEAKS WERE
DONE TO THE GRIDDED FCST DATABASE.

OVERALL...A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON...WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE AND HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF RAIN /INCLUDING
THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 14Z HRRR RUN/ SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BEGIN AROUND 5 PM
/21Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVES TO NEAR A KBFD...TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE NE HALF
OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW
30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...PLAN IS AT THIS POINT - NOT TO
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191621
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1221 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLIER...THICKER CIRROSTRATUS HAS THINNED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NEPA...BUT THIS WINDOW WILL BE FLEETING AS THICKENING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN 4-6 HOURS AFTERWARD.

THE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPS A FEW-SVRL
DEG F ABOVE FCST HOURLY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING...BUT NOT
MUCH ABOVE ACTUAL FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY. SOME MAX TEMP TWEAKS WERE
DONE TO THE GRIDDED FCST DATABASE.

OVERALL...A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING AFTERNOON...WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SERLY BREEZE AND HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.

LATEST MODEL TIMING OF THE LEADING...NE EDGE OF RAIN /INCLUDING
THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF...AND LATEST 14Z HRRR RUN/ SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BEGIN AROUND 5 PM
/21Z/...WHILE THE ONSET OF RAIN/SHOWERS MOVES TO NEAR A KBFD...TO
KUNV AND KMRB LINE AROUND 01Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND STAYS A BIT LIGHTER ACROSS THE NE HALF
OF THE STATE - WHERE REL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO/STAY BELOW
30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...PLAN IS AT THIS POINT - NOT TO
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191348
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
948 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN EASTERN OHIO
AND HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. NOT MUCH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SO FAR
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT POISED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

A LOOK AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
LAYERS OF DRY AIR...ONE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER FROM
700MB-500MB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY AFTER
MIXING BEGAN. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAVE MIXED DOWN
RESULTING IN SOME EARLY GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM DRAWING NEAR.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND THE WARMING/COOLING TREND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS A RESULT. TRIED TO CONVEY THIS HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRANSITION IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS...WITH THE RAIN REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY...PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS
IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL. THIS
MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE
MORNING SOUNDING. WILL WAIT FOR THE REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO
FALL OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191348
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
948 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN EASTERN OHIO
AND HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. NOT MUCH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SO FAR
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT POISED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

A LOOK AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
LAYERS OF DRY AIR...ONE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER FROM
700MB-500MB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY AFTER
MIXING BEGAN. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAVE MIXED DOWN
RESULTING IN SOME EARLY GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM DRAWING NEAR.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND THE WARMING/COOLING TREND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS A RESULT. TRIED TO CONVEY THIS HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRANSITION IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS...WITH THE RAIN REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY...PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS
IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL. THIS
MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE
MORNING SOUNDING. WILL WAIT FOR THE REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO
FALL OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191348
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
948 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN EASTERN OHIO
AND HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. NOT MUCH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SO FAR
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT POISED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

A LOOK AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
LAYERS OF DRY AIR...ONE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER FROM
700MB-500MB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY AFTER
MIXING BEGAN. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAVE MIXED DOWN
RESULTING IN SOME EARLY GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM DRAWING NEAR.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND THE WARMING/COOLING TREND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS A RESULT. TRIED TO CONVEY THIS HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRANSITION IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS...WITH THE RAIN REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY...PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS
IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL. THIS
MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE
MORNING SOUNDING. WILL WAIT FOR THE REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO
FALL OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191348
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
948 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN EASTERN OHIO
AND HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. NOT MUCH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SO FAR
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT POISED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

A LOOK AT THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
LAYERS OF DRY AIR...ONE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER FROM
700MB-500MB. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY AFTER
MIXING BEGAN. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAVE MIXED DOWN
RESULTING IN SOME EARLY GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM DRAWING NEAR.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND THE WARMING/COOLING TREND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS A RESULT. TRIED TO CONVEY THIS HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRANSITION IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS...WITH THE RAIN REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY...PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS
IN FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE EROSION UPON ARRIVAL. THIS
MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SAMPLED BY THE
MORNING SOUNDING. WILL WAIT FOR THE REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO
FALL OUT OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THIER DESCENT TO MVFR. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF DIMMED SUNSHINE
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND CREATE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY.

THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOLER MARINE AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN SATURDAY/S UNSEASONABLY WARM
VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING
OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF DIMMED SUNSHINE
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND CREATE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY.

THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOLER MARINE AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN SATURDAY/S UNSEASONABLY WARM
VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING
OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF DIMMED SUNSHINE
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND CREATE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY.

THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOLER MARINE AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN SATURDAY/S UNSEASONABLY WARM
VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING
OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191331
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP
OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF DIMMED SUNSHINE
TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND CREATE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY.

THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOLER MARINE AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10-15F LOWER THAN SATURDAY/S UNSEASONABLY WARM
VALUES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING
OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY
NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 191147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REACH THE FIRST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AIRFIELDS
AROUND 00Z MONDAY /KJST/.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THESE HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAFS
STARTING BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z.

RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN EARLY...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TSRA POSSIBLE.

TUE- THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW EACH DAY...WITH AREAS OF
RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

VERY MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

VERY MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND OR LONGER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
10-15F FROM SATURDAY/S LOFTY VALUES. LATEST MODEL TIMING INCLUDING
THE NAM 06Z RUN SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/BEING SLOWER WITH ONSET. FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM.
CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR INFO AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST
CYCLES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE TIMING AND TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE-OBVIOUS 4-6HR BREAK
BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING RAIN AND THE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINS WILL BE HELD UP AS THE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY. USUALLY...CENTRAL PA DOES NOT GET STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING
STABLE SERLY FLOW RAIN EVENTS. SO THOUGHTS OF A WIND ADVY WERE
DISCOUNTED RATHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUMP THE PWATS
INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TSRA MON PM...THE
QPF REACHES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. BUT THE STREAM FLOWS ARE REALLY LOW AND NO THUNDER
TONIGHT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NO FLOOD WORRIES OTHER THAN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND A FEW SMALL CREEKS AT BANKFULL.
THINGS ARE GROWING NICELY NOW IN THE SE AND EVEN LOCALLY IN HAPPY
VALLEY WHICH SHOULD TAKE UP PLENTY OF WATER COMPARED TO JUST TWO
WEEKS AGO. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK AND
BROUGHT THE DAY2 SLGT RISK INTO SRN PA...RIGHTFULLY SO. THE BREAK
AND ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO GOOD HEATING AND THE FRONT/FORCING COMES THROUGH AT AN
OPPORTUNE TIME TO GRAB THE MAX CAPES AND MIN STABILITY. CAPES MAY
BE AROUND 1500J/KG AND LI/S DROP TO -3 TO -5. WIND PROFILES ARE
MAINLY MULTI-CELLULAR - BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY CUTTING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE TIME...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ROTATING STORMS - ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR ON OR NEAR LLVL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COLDER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD A FAST-MOVING
SHORT-WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WHITE PRECIP - BUT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INTO THE 20S OVER THE WEST.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RH/S WILL DIP TO 30 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BUT THE GUSTS OVER 20MPH WILL ONLY MATCH UP WITH THE LOW RH/S FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE MOST AND ONLY IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
TIME BEING. BUT IF THE WINDS PICKS UP SOONER IN THE DAY...WE WILL
NEED TO REVISIT THE NEED FOR AN RFW.

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO HIGHER RH/S AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190634
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA - BUT OPACITY PROBABLY DOES
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A PARTLY CLOUDY KIND OF MENTION. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SKY COVER WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/SLOWER
WITH ONSET BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. TEMPS
MAY BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY IF THE CLOUDS ARE REALLY THICKENING UP
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS FROM THE SE WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE FINE FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING TIME TODAY BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. RH/S DO
JUST DIP BELOW 30 PCT IN A FEW AREAS AFTER THE WINDS GET GUSTY -
BUT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS DECISION IF IT
SEEMS LIKE THE WINDS AND LOW RH MATCH UP FOR A LONGER TIME.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190634
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA - BUT OPACITY PROBABLY DOES
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A PARTLY CLOUDY KIND OF MENTION. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SKY COVER WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/SLOWER
WITH ONSET BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. TEMPS
MAY BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY IF THE CLOUDS ARE REALLY THICKENING UP
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS FROM THE SE WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE FINE FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING TIME TODAY BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. RH/S DO
JUST DIP BELOW 30 PCT IN A FEW AREAS AFTER THE WINDS GET GUSTY -
BUT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS DECISION IF IT
SEEMS LIKE THE WINDS AND LOW RH MATCH UP FOR A LONGER TIME.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190634
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA - BUT OPACITY PROBABLY DOES
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A PARTLY CLOUDY KIND OF MENTION. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SKY COVER WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN BACKING OFF/SLOWER
WITH ONSET BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS BY/AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. TEMPS
MAY BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY IF THE CLOUDS ARE REALLY THICKENING UP
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS FROM THE SE WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE FINE FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING TIME TODAY BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. RH/S DO
JUST DIP BELOW 30 PCT IN A FEW AREAS AFTER THE WINDS GET GUSTY -
BUT FOR ONLY AN HOUR OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS DECISION IF IT
SEEMS LIKE THE WINDS AND LOW RH MATCH UP FOR A LONGER TIME.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190555
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN
INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME
COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY
RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 190215
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KCTP 182352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 182352
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS
/VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.

VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION
THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING...
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 182311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 182015
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME RISES ON
STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING
AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE
WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO
FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR



000
FXUS61 KCTP 181914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDING A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. THE AIR WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KIPT TO KCBE AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY
NW WIND IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF THIS
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE RIGHT NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A SFC AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS. LAYERED CLOUDS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND BASED ON THE 12Z OPER MODELS AND 09Z
SREF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WRN/SWRN ZONES BETWEEN 20-22Z
BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DUSK. 12Z
GEFS MEAN APPEARS TO BE UP TO A FEW HOURS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN...AND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERNS SUCH AS THE UPCOMING
EVENT...THIS IS ALWAYS SOMETHING TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AND MONITOR.

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME RISES ON
STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING
AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES
THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE
WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO
FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH 23Z...WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BY SUNSET AS TEMPS COOL
BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT EAST
AND OFF THE MID ATL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS FOR THE BULK OF TODAY. AREAS OF HIGH
BASED CU WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY...DRY CFRONT OVER THE LOWER GLAKES SWEEPS QUICKLY TO THE
SE.

THE PRIMARY EFFECT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD
BE 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF KIPT. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AOA 20KTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY COLD FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS MEET THE
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO JUST THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF REALLY LOW
RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT/DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT EAST
AND OFF THE MID ATL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS FOR THE BULK OF TODAY. AREAS OF HIGH
BASED CU WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY...DRY CFRONT OVER THE LOWER GLAKES SWEEPS QUICKLY TO THE
SE.

THE PRIMARY EFFECT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD
BE 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF KIPT. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AOA 20KTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY COLD FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS MEET THE
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO JUST THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF REALLY LOW
RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT/DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 181110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 181110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 181110
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FOG AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
1200Z OR 1300Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED ITS MENTION AT KRDG, KABE, KMIV
AND KACY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW BUT IT IS
HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY VALUES REPORTED BY THE ASOS
UNITS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FOG AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
1200Z OR 1300Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED ITS MENTION AT KRDG, KABE, KMIV
AND KACY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW BUT IT IS
HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY VALUES REPORTED BY THE ASOS
UNITS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180838
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
438 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKY AND A NEARLY CALM WIND IS ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO FORM
EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON 08Z SFC OBS/DWPT DEPRESSIONS...HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS AT KBFD...KIPT...KLNS AND
KAOO THRU ARND 12Z. ANY FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BY ARND 12Z AS
SUN COMES UP.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
WILL SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180737
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LGT/VRB WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
WILL SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180737
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LGT/VRB WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
WILL SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180737
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LGT/VRB WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
WILL SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180737
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING
ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS
RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN
FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW
CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE
WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LGT/VRB WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS
WILL SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO
JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF
REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT/VRB
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. STILL CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180434
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
UPPER DELMARVA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FEATURE WAS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO HELP LOCATE THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF CAPE MAY COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT SHOULD BE
TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY ABOUT 300 AM.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE 60S FROM PHILADELPHIA EAST AND
SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
IN THE MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS
TO LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP
MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON
EXCEPT COOLER IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE
ADDED SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SOME INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHL AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY. RAIN, WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE
LEAVING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OVNGT. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WAS
INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE
STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME.
SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND
C NJ. THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ,
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH IN TIME TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL
OCCUR AFTER PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP, THEN HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180434
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
UPPER DELMARVA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FEATURE WAS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO HELP LOCATE THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF CAPE MAY COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT SHOULD BE
TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY ABOUT 300 AM.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE 60S FROM PHILADELPHIA EAST AND
SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
IN THE MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS
TO LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP
MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON
EXCEPT COOLER IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE
ADDED SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SOME INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHL AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY. RAIN, WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE
LEAVING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OVNGT. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WAS
INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE
STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME.
SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND
C NJ. THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ,
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH IN TIME TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL
OCCUR AFTER PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP, THEN HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT M/CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.
CONSIDERED ADDING A FEW TEMPO GROUPS BUT WILL ULTIMATELY YIELD TO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. THE GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE
BULLISH IN IFR OR LOWER FOG/LOW CIGS AT JST.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. ADDED FM GROUPS AT
15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT M/CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.
CONSIDERED ADDING A FEW TEMPO GROUPS BUT WILL ULTIMATELY YIELD TO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. THE GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE
BULLISH IN IFR OR LOWER FOG/LOW CIGS AT JST.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. ADDED FM GROUPS AT
15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT M/CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.
CONSIDERED ADDING A FEW TEMPO GROUPS BUT WILL ULTIMATELY YIELD TO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. THE GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE
BULLISH IN IFR OR LOWER FOG/LOW CIGS AT JST.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. ADDED FM GROUPS AT
15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180336
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT M/CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES.
CONSIDERED ADDING A FEW TEMPO GROUPS BUT WILL ULTIMATELY YIELD TO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. THE GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE
BULLISH IN IFR OR LOWER FOG/LOW CIGS AT JST.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL
SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. ADDED FM GROUPS AT
15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180214
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 02Z. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH NEXT UPDATE AT 03Z.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. ADDED FM
GROUPS AT 15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180214
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND
DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 02Z. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH NEXT UPDATE AT 03Z.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. ADDED FM
GROUPS AT 15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KCTP 180026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COMPACT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL
MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 02Z. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH NEXT UPDATE AT 03Z.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. ADDED FM
GROUPS AT 15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



000
FXUS61 KCTP 180026
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COMPACT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL
MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A
DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY.

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL
KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE
STATE.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY
THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND
LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS
OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH
COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS
TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN
MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 02Z. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH NEXT UPDATE AT 03Z.

A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330
DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. ADDED FM
GROUPS AT 15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT.

OUTLOOK..