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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY
BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY
BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCTP 020145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 020145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS STREAMING INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OHIO.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEING IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF WEAK WRN OH CUTOFF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WV/MD PANHANDLE
WHICH MAY SNEAK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDED SLGT CHC
MENTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 020100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A HOT, STEAMY DAYTIME, A MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING, THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEGINS
TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, BUT
WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN, TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE.
WITH THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND
THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
MID-MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS
AROUND 5000FT MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A HOT, STEAMY DAYTIME, A MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING, THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEGINS
TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, BUT
WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN, TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE.
WITH THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND
THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
MID-MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS
AROUND 5000FT MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012347
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
THIN CIRRUS WISPS RIDING INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF THIS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR.

MINS TONIGHT WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS LIKELY TO RECUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN
THE OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS UNDER WAY OVER THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING
RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012328
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS UNDER WAY OVER THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING
RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 012145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 012145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE
FLYING AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS
PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011957
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011824
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS WE MIX DEEPER AND
INCORPORATE DRIER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING.
SEE NO REASON TO ADD TO POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS VERY MESO GUID
SHOWS TOTAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND ALMOST ALL CLOUDS BEFORE
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL INCORPORATE A HEALTHY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THEM TO BE
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF TUES AM MINS. THE FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN THE NORTH IS NOT AS
LIKELY TO RECUR. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE OTHERWISE
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCD
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU FLAT AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY - MOST LIKELY BEFORE
SUNSET. FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. WILL HIT IT HARDEST AT KBFD AND
KIPT...EXPECTING IFR FOR A FEW HRS. OTHERIWSE MVFR FOG/HAZE IS ALL
THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z-18Z. A SMALL CHC OF A SHRA EXISTS
OVER THE MTNS ON WED AFTN AS A VERY WEAK DEPRESSION IN THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALEY AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT 5+ DAYS. MORE CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES. SEASONAL SUMMARIES WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011512
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS ALMOST GONE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCH OVER TIOGA CO. THIS
TOO SHALL PASS. THE CU HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAURELS AND
MID SUSQ/POCONOS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING TO HAPPEN THIS AFTN
MAY WIPE SOME OF THOSE AWAY DESPITE THE CURRENTLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP BACK INTO THE L60S AND PERHAPS U50S
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVS THIS AFTN. CHC FOR PCPN IS STILL MIGHTY LOW
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. ONLY THE LAURELS OR NERN
MTNS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011512
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1112 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS ALMOST GONE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCH OVER TIOGA CO. THIS
TOO SHALL PASS. THE CU HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN THE LAURELS AND
MID SUSQ/POCONOS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING TO HAPPEN THIS AFTN
MAY WIPE SOME OF THOSE AWAY DESPITE THE CURRENTLY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP BACK INTO THE L60S AND PERHAPS U50S
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVS THIS AFTN. CHC FOR PCPN IS STILL MIGHTY LOW
GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. ONLY THE LAURELS OR NERN
MTNS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT A SPRINKLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011207
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8AM UP...
STRATUS OVER THE NORTH BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OUTSIDE-IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP AS THIS PATCH GOES
AWAY - ESP OVER THE NRN MTNS AND LAURELS. DEEP MIXING MAY KEEP THE
COVERAGE SPARSE TO NIL ELSEWHERE. STILL A TINY CHC FOR A SHOWER
IN THE SW...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF ONE TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

PREV...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 011157
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE
PATCHY TO DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 15Z ONCE THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ESSENTIALLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION AS THE BASE
OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM
MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE
AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED
ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPIC SUPPORT WITH SLIGHT
NUMBERS UNDER THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO.

WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY
DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...DIURNALLY
SUPPORTED PRECIP CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON FRIDAY. HAVE THUS RAISED POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTING...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND
WARM WEATHER UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011024
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CURRENT FOG AROUND THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE
KMIV, KACY, KRDG, AND KABE.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011024
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CURRENT FOG AROUND THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE
KMIV, KACY, KRDG, AND KABE.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011024
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CURRENT FOG AROUND THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE
KMIV, KACY, KRDG, AND KABE.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011024
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CURRENT FOG AROUND THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE
KMIV, KACY, KRDG, AND KABE.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY WARM
MID LEVELS.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 12Z,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL START TO FEEL A BIT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION NEAR AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION
AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOTE SOME LIMITED ABILITY FOR VERTICAL MASS TRANSIT PAST ABOUT
12 KFT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. THAT SAID...A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BACK TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO...WHERE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LITTLE VENTILATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER-RIDGE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR DAILY FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
FRIDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAISED POPS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. WITH THE
PATTERN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLOP EASTWARD AS A NW CONUS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE PINNACLE OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF
AND CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL QUELL THE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POISED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL START TO FEEL A BIT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION NEAR AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION
AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOTE SOME LIMITED ABILITY FOR VERTICAL MASS TRANSIT PAST ABOUT
12 KFT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. THAT SAID...A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BACK TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO...WHERE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LITTLE VENTILATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER-RIDGE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR DAILY FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
FRIDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAISED POPS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. WITH THE
PATTERN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLOP EASTWARD AS A NW CONUS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE PINNACLE OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF
AND CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL QUELL THE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POISED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATUERS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT SUMMER ENCORE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER 2015.
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST IR STLT LOOP SHOWS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RADIATIONAL FOG
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH LOCAL VISBYS BELOW 1SM. LOOK FOR
THE FOG TO EXPAND SWD THRU SUNRISE. FOG AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CURRENTLY INVOF IL/IN WILL PUSH SLOWLY EWD ON DAY 1 ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...REACHING WV BY 12Z WED. THE MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING VERY ISOLD
TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE OH VLY TO
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE
CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF SCHC POPS OVER SCENTRAL AREAS AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE SRN/SWRN LAURELS AS PER A CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES
DATA AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE CALENDAR SAYING ITS SEPT
1ST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED MID
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 90F IN THE
MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALSO LKLY TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST AREAL AVG POPS /40-50 PCT/ OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WERE
PAINTED IN FOR DAY 2/WED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AND SLIDES ESEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH AFTN HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. KEPT SCHC POPS IN FOR DAY 3/THU
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN INCRG MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK/SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM. THE 00Z GFS IS CLEARLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SWD FROM
NYS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED TO
NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT RECORDED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATUERS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MONTHLY CLIMATE
SUMMARIES WHICH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
344 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL START TO FEEL A BIT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION NEAR AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION
AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOTE SOME LIMITED ABILITY FOR VERTICAL MASS TRANSIT PAST ABOUT
12 KFT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. THAT SAID...A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BACK TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO...WHERE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LITTLE VENTILATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER-RIDGE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR DAILY FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
FRIDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAISED POPS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. WITH THE
PATTERN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLOP EASTWARD AS A NW CONUS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE PINNACLE OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF
AND CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL QUELL THE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POISED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT WIND WILL BE PRESENT
OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
344 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL START TO FEEL A BIT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION NEAR AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION
AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOTE SOME LIMITED ABILITY FOR VERTICAL MASS TRANSIT PAST ABOUT
12 KFT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. THAT SAID...A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BACK TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO...WHERE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LITTLE VENTILATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER-RIDGE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR DAILY FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
FRIDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAISED POPS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. WITH THE
PATTERN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLOP EASTWARD AS A NW CONUS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE PINNACLE OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF
AND CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL QUELL THE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POISED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT WIND WILL BE PRESENT
OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 15Z, AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 15Z, AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010701
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010701
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE REGIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE
CALMED TO GO MVFR TO IFR. BFD AND IPT WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE
RESTRICTIONS WHERE BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE OR CURRENTLY ARE SEEING
IFR AND LOWER. IPT WILL SEE CONDITIONS VARY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PATCHY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH TO PERSIST.
UNV...AOO...LNS AND MDT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IF ANY OF
THESE LOCATIONS DECOUPLE WITH CALM WINDS FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A MAIN CONCERN
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF A PM SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER ENCORE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
VALLEY FOG SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE IR STLT LOOP SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
WHERE LOCAL VISBYS WILL BE AOB 1/2SM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS WEAK
TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 010206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY ELEMENTS FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILLHELP PROMOTE FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY ELEMENTS FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILLHELP PROMOTE FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY ELEMENTS FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILLHELP PROMOTE FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
846 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
3 FT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 SEC...AND A SOUTHWEST WIND IN
THE 10 KT RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY FOR BOTH THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
846 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
3 FT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 SEC...AND A SOUTHWEST WIND IN
THE 10 KT RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY FOR BOTH THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 312213
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH APPEARS A NEAR CERTAINTY IN THE DEEP VALLEYS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHC AT
KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIMITED THEMSELVES WELL
SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THUS HAVE MADE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND
FORCING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIMITED THEMSELVES WELL
SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THUS HAVE MADE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND
FORCING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIMITED THEMSELVES WELL
SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THUS HAVE MADE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND
FORCING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIMITED THEMSELVES WELL
SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THUS HAVE MADE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND
FORCING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 312150
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EVENING CONVECTION DWINDLING RAPIDLY AS MERE REMNANTS OF WHAT
EARLIER WERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ARE JUST EXITING SOUTHERN
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AS PER LATEST HRRR WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPLICIT DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. DROPPED LATE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311959
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311908
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SRN MTNS ARE DRIFTING ESE. A FEW
OTHER CELLS ARE SPRINKLED ABOUT THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THESE ARE
NOT ALL THAT TALL...BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THE PWATS ARE
INCHING UP AND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH VALUES ARE NOT UNCOMMON - MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH. THUS...A FEW MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE ALL OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS DYING A QUICK DEATH VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING - PERHAPS BEFORE SUNST IN THE CENTRAL COS
WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT SO GREAT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS QUITE
EVIDENT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 THERE AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOG IS NOT A SLAM-DUNK TONIGHT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO FOG UP AS IS USUAL IN SEPT.
YES...SEPT ALREADY. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SRN
TIER WHERE IT IS RAINING. MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND
L70S AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FEWER SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES RUNNING ABOUT.
THUS...WILL KEEP POPS TO 20S IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SC MTNS WILL DIE OFF THIS AFTN/EVENING. MOST
WILL BE GONE BEFORE 22-23Z. FOG IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS AOO WHERE IT RAINED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE W/SW WILL MAKE IT VERY WARM AND
HUMID...BUT A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR WITH ONLY EARLY AM FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AS IS NORMAL FOR SEPT. AFTN REDUCTIONS IN ISOLD SH/TSRA
ARE POSS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND FURTHER WEST ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NOTHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
LIFT...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT ANY PORT. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF BY
14Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND FURTHER WEST ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NOTHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
LIFT...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT ANY PORT. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF BY
14Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND FURTHER WEST ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NOTHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
LIFT...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT ANY PORT. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF BY
14Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311551
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1151 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WOULD NOT BE
SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS
AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD
LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311551
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1151 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WOULD NOT BE
SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS
AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD
LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311537
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE LAURELS. SOME 50+ DBZ RETURNS
IN EACH CELL...BUT SO FAR NO LTG. WILL ASUME THAT THIS IS
INEVITABLE AND KEEP THUNDER IN THE FCST. 40-50 POPS ALONG THE SRN
BORDER WILL DO WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING
ALONG SLOWLY...BUT ONE OR TWO WHICH ANCHOR OR REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREA COULD MAKE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY LIKELY WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SRN TIER AND NRN MTNS. THE MAY BE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT LESS OF A CHANCE OF ANY
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LOW...EVIDENT MAINLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OR RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST TODAY. WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS MAY CAP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS TODAY...WITH
VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80`S BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WEAK MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM HITTING 90 TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE RIDGES...BUT NOTHING EXPECTED AT ANY PORT. PATCHY MVFR TO
IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LOW...EVIDENT MAINLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OR RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST TODAY. WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS MAY CAP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS TODAY...WITH
VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS CARRIED.

WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 80`S BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WEAK MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM HITTING 90 TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE RIDGES...BUT NOTHING EXPECTED AT ANY PORT. PATCHY MVFR TO
IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311154
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SRN TIER ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY STILL BE
ALOFT. PATCH HEADED FOR KTHV SHOULD TELL THE TALE. BUT IT IS ALSO
THE AREA OF HIGHEST RETURNS AS WELL. THUS...THE 30 POPS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER STILL LOOK STELLAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE AND HEATING UNDER
LESS CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL POP A FEW CELLS THIS AFTN.

PREV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 311104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 311104
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AT IPT AND BFD...WITH IFR
AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. ANY AM VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
AM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH LNS AND MDT MOST
LIKELY...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310948
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310948
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
548 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310942
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE WEEK. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK/STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...AND STAY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A BIT OF DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG CLIMBS TO THE 60-80
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROB OF 2000 J/KG IS
VERY LOW AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE
LOW DIURNAL POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS
THINKING AS IT PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED- SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
/WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS
BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS
MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A BIT OF
DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IS VERY LOW AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE LOW DIURNAL
POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS THINKING AS IT
PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE COVERAGE BETWEEN
17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATELY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND ACROSS PENN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLAVNAI WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
ENTIRE. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
BUILD NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GLAKES
AND MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANIC REGION BY 12Z TUES.

925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE THROUGH
PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT EXTENDING
FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL PENN THIS EVENING...THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A BIT OF
DRYING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

03Z SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IS VERY LOW AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUS THE LOW DIURNAL
POP/CVRG FOR CONVECTION. 07Z HRRR CONFIRMS THIS THINKING AS IT
PLACES GENERALLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED/POPCORN LIKE COVERAGE BETWEEN
17Z-22Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED THE
SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF KBFD.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG HAS FORMED...BUT VSBYS ARE HOLDING UP AOA 1 SM

MINS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 60S IN PRACTICALLY ALL
LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F. A FEW OF
THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF KBFD WILL SEE A LOW
TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE U70S OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE AMTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS ROAMING THE STREETS.

CONSALL TEMP BLEND YIELDS LOWS AROUND 60F ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...AND INTHE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
519 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PASS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE A RATHER FLEETING PASSAGE AS THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
WEAKENING AND SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. IT WILL
LARGELY BE FOLLOWING THE MODESTLY COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
THAT TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN
UPPER RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR
ALOFT AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE
TO EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOTHING MORE THAN LOW-TOPPED WEAK PULSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AND ONLY MID-AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE CARRIED FOR THIS EVENTUALITY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER
VERY WEAK FLOW AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. FRIES

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
519 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PASS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE A RATHER FLEETING PASSAGE AS THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
WEAKENING AND SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. IT WILL
LARGELY BE FOLLOWING THE MODESTLY COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
THAT TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN
UPPER RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR
ALOFT AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE
TO EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOTHING MORE THAN LOW-TOPPED WEAK PULSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AND ONLY MID-AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE CARRIED FOR THIS EVENTUALITY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER
VERY WEAK FLOW AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. FRIES

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 310730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE
THROUGH PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE NE
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED
THE SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE
WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
IN PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER
THAN 60F. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF
KBFD WILL SEE A LOW TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING
TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SOUTH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN
THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY`S -
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT
TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE
THROUGH PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE NE
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED
THE SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE
WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
IN PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER
THAN 60F. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF
KBFD WILL SEE A LOW TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING
TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SOUTH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN
THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY`S -
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT
TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE
THROUGH PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE NE
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED
THE SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE
WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
IN PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER
THAN 60F. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF
KBFD WILL SEE A LOW TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING
TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SOUTH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN
THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY`S -
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT
TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE
THROUGH PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE NE
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED
THE SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE
WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
IN PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER
THAN 60F. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF
KBFD WILL SEE A LOW TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING
TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SOUTH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN
THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY`S -
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT
TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCTP 310314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. WEAK DEFORMATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THIS REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL
REMAIN DRY.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS IDEA OF SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE AREA GOOD AND ACTUALLY BUMPED POPS UP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE NORTH SEES
PARTIAL CLEARING AND PEAKS OF THE NEARLY FULL MOON. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE WHICH SEE
MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS.  MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE
AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT ON MON. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD BUT
SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING TO MOST GUID. WITH
THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR NORTH. HAVE
ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA S IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A
FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN TODAY - IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE
CLOUDS FOR A SHORT TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




000
FXUS61 KCTP 310314
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. WEAK DEFORMATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THIS REGION SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD WILL
REMAIN DRY.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS IDEA OF SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE AREA GOOD AND ACTUALLY BUMPED POPS UP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
OVER MY SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE NORTH SEES
PARTIAL CLEARING AND PEAKS OF THE NEARLY FULL MOON. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE WHICH SEE
MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS.  MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE
AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT ON MON. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD BUT
SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING TO MOST GUID. WITH
THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR NORTH. HAVE
ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA S IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A
FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN TODAY - IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE
CLOUDS FOR A SHORT TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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