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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241809
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. A weak
disturbance will provide a chance of rain starting Wednesday
night. A slow warming trend will continue through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 mb ridge will keep the forecast area dry over the next 24
hours. Overall moisture in the column is fairly limited, but still
enough for some diurnal cumulus this afternoon. These will
collapse towards sunset. Mostly clear skies are forecast
overnight, although a bit of cirrus may spill over the ridge
late. Low temperatures will be seasonable, but still a few degrees
above climatology.

The upper ridge shifts east on Wednesday, and increasing southwest
flow will start the process of increasing dewpoints. More diurnal
cumulus are expected. Although low-level instability will start to
increase, a mid-level cap will keep convection at bay for much of
the area. Southeast Ohio may get just moist enough to break the
cap for a few isolated showers and storms after 18Z, and have
slight chance PoPs here. With rising 500 mb heights and 850 mb
temperatures, we expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees
warmer than today.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough in the midst of an unstable atmosphere is
progged to slowly pass on Thursday. Hence, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening.

Unstable conditions will continue into Friday as the broad ridge of
high pressure strengthens and terrain driven diurnal thunderstorms
occur.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected through the period via
southwest flow with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees
above average. Have used a blend of GFS, NAM, and WPC guidance for
temperatures as a broad and anomalously strong ridge pattern holds
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ensemble members continue to be in good agreement that the
aforementioned ridge enhances. Above average temperatures with
humid conditions are expected. Saturday appears to be the warmest
day of the period as the ridge axis is progged to be very near or
directly over the forecast area while mid-level heights have
reached their maxima.

The overall broad ridge of anomalously high pressure over the
Eastern US remains certain through the period and thus near WPC
values for temperatures were used. Diurnal convection can be
expected each day and so chance pops have been maintained.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue into Wednesday afternoon
underneath high pressure. Milder overnight temperatures and a dry
air mass will keep fog formation very limited to perhaps a few of
the deeper valleys or cooler water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with the advance and
passage of a disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241720
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range
through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping
the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon.

No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated
shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth
mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule
out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin
around outside. There could be some patch fog in some
valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas.

Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
Enjoy that while it lasts.

Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of
many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will
top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of
the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the
humidity begins to rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly
clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots
this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the
southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening.

Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very
isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this
afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our
east.

Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of
fog in the valleys of the southeast.

We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Grumm




000
FXUS61 KCTP 241418
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1018 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

Mostly sunny skies and warm today. Most locations will range
through the 70s with much of eastern and southeastern areas toping
the 80 degree mark lat this afternoon.

No models show any rain today. The 11Z HRRR showed an isolated
shower or two in extreme southeastern areas but not worth
mentioning and low probability event. But cannot completely rule
out a stray shower over Schuylkill or Lancaster County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Should be a beautiful evening. Mostly clear good time to spin
around outside. There could be some patch fog in some
valleys...better chance in eastern/southeastern areas.

Still quite comfortable as humidity will still be on the low side.
Enjoy that while it lasts.

Wednesday will be a pleasant and dry summer day. The first of
many to come over the next 3-7 days. Most areas will
top 80F in the afternoon. It will also be the last of
the relatively dry days as moisture keeps coming in and overnight
Wednesday into Thursday will be a bit more stickier as the
humidity begins to rise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main change to the 12Z TAF package is VCSH for the
LNS and MDT TAF sites.

Earlier discussion below.

Still a breeze in spots. No fog expected now that we have
some breeze.

Overall a nice spring day with VFR conditions. Perhaps
a shower across the far east.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Martin



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 241347
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
947 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure offshore of Long Island this morning will track
northeastward during today. High pressure will then build to our
south tonight through Wednesday before shifting offshore. A frontal
boundary is forecast to be draped mainly from the Great Lakes to New
England Thursday through Monday as some weak low pressure systems
track along it. This front may settle southward into at least
northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey at times late this
week and during the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The back edge of the precip shield over northern NJ is slowly
eroding as the upper level low continues to lift away from the
region. However, have kept the mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. Though there will
be little in the way of synoptic scale lift by this afternoon,
morning sounding from IAD indicates will will have a deep mixed
layer with steep lapse rates, so even orographic lift could be
enough to get isolated storms to develop. One other thing to watch
however, will be the dry air advection over the western portions
of our region which could further hinder convective initiation.

Temperatures today will be near normal across the wrn/srn areas
where more sunshine is expected. The abundant cloud cover n/e may
hold temps just below normal today. Overall highs low 70s north/east
and upper 70s south/west. Winds will be mostly n or nw this morning
and then w or sw this afternoon. Winds speeds mostly 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will begin to build across the area tonight. Except
for a few sct showers n/e during the early evening...it should be a
dry fcst. Clouds will thin out across the area as drier air moves
in. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 50s across the
north and bottom out in the mid/upper 50s over the Delmarva and Sn
NJ. A little patchy fog is possible away from the urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summary...A pattern change leads to a stretch of very warm to hot
conditions through much of the holiday weekend, with some increase
in the humidity especially starting on Friday. A frontal boundary
nearby Thursday through Monday though may help trigger some
showers and thunderstorms mainly each afternoon and evening.

The synoptic setup is comprised of the pesky closed low that will
weaken as it shifts farther away from our area Wednesday. This
allows ridging to arrive in the east for the second half of the
week, and this ridge which becomes centered offshore looks to remain
over or near our area right through Monday. There will be several
pieces of energy deflected around this ridge with a sharp trough
possibly occurring in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes. This
setup should result in a frontal zone becoming draped from about the
Great Lakes to New England. This front looks to meander north and
south from Thursday through Monday, with it potentially getting into
at least our northern areas at times. Some energy along this front
combined with plenty of heating to the south of it may result in
mainly some diurnally driven convection Thursday through the holiday
weekend. Overall though, a washout is not anticipated. We used a
model blend approach for Wednesday through Thursday night, then
blended in the 00z WPC Guidance with continuity thereafter. Some
adjustments were then made based on additional collaboration with
our neighboring offices.

For Wednesday and Thursday...The pattern finally makes a transition
to much warmer air as the slow moving closed low weakens as it
shifts into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday. This allows a ridge to
the west to slide eastward, with surface high pressure sliding to
our south Wednesday and then anchored just off the southern Mid
Atlantic coast Thursday. This results in considerable height rises
through this time frame along with a more southerly flow regime.
This will boost the warm advection and the model guidance increases
the 925 mb temperatures to +20C Wednesday and between +20C and +25C
Thursday. This combined with west to southwest flow will drive the
temperatures well into the 80s for much of the area both days. The
exceptions will be the higher terrain and especially the coastal
areas where the surface flow may back more southerly and allow some
cooler ocean influence. We bumped up the temperatures some
especially away from the coast.

As the ridge axis is still to our west Wednesday, energy sliding
across northern New England will drag a cool front southeastward.
Given the presence of the incoming ridge, this front should stay to
our north although it may get rather close to our northern areas
late Wednesday and Thursday. There may be some convection with it
Wednesday which may brush our very far northern zones in the
afternoon. For now though we left the forecast dry. Low pressure
tracking into the Great Lakes Thursday should provide enough of a
downstream push to move the front back north. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon across our western
zones due to terrain circulations and the presence of a lee-side
trough, however much of the convection should reside well to our
west.

For Friday through Monday...The ridge axis may build right across
our area through much of this time frame. This will result in very
warm to hot conditions along with a more noticeable increase in the
surface dew points. Some mainly diurnally driven convection cannot
be ruled out each afternoon and early evening Friday and Saturday.
At least some guidance brings low pressure off the Atlantic into the
Carolinas Sunday as the ridge aloft remains. Depending on the
organization of this feature and if it exits may push some
additional moisture our way into Monday. In addition, the ridge may
amplify enough as a deep trough passes near the Canadian Maritimes
Sunday and Monday to push a frontal boundary down through our area.
If this were to occur, then Monday would be much cooler and
potentially be prone to more showers/thunder. There is much less
certainty with the details regarding this, therefore we followed
close to the WPC Guidance which brings the front into our
northeastern areas Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through 06Z. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon (generally between
16 and 22Z). However, have not included this in most of the TAFS
as the limited coverage means that there is low confidence that
any one TAF site will be affected. Winds will be shifting from
northwesterly and westerly to southwesterly by late this afternoon
or evening.

After 06Z...some light fog may develop for KRDG, KABE, and
Coastal Plains TAF sites, reducing visibility to MVFR. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should continue through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR. West to southwest winds up to 10 knots.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR overall, however brief times of
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible each afternoon and evening due to a
few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A few seas near 5 ft early this morning...but a trend towards
lessening winds and seas today. No SCA flag will be needed for today
or tonight. Winds will be mostly n or nw today and then w or sw
tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a tstm is expected for the
waters. Winds and seas will be locally higher in any tstm.

Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...A ridge aloft over the area combined
with high pressure at the surface to our south and east will allow
for mainly a southerly flow regime across our area. The flow looks
like enough and therefore the conditions are expected to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Gorse/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241333
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday,
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Very minor tweaks were made to sky cover and temperatures for the
930 AM update. No major changes to the forecast.

Previous...
Drier air will continue to work into the area today. With plenty
of sunshine, good atmospheric mixing is expected which will allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through
most of Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move into Western Ohio
late Wednesday and begin the process of shifting the ridge axis to
the east. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge,
most of Wednesday should remain dry. A late day shower or storm
cannot be ruled out over Ohio as the shortwave will increase
large scale ascent over a destabilized lower atmosphere.

Very warm Wednesday with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal.

Shower chance will increase across the entire area Wednesday
night, as aforementioned shortwave continues it slow trek
eastward.

It will take most of Thursday for the trough axis to make it
through, necessitating the inclusion of pops through much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensembles are in good agreement that a broad and rather strong
ridge will develop over the Eastern US through the much of the long
term.

This will provide the area with very warm temperatures and
increasing levels of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals for the period,
with exception for peri-dawn fog. Restrictions were confined to
ports nearest water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with the advance and
passage of a disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240818
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
418 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday,
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Drier air will continue to work into the area today. With plenty
of sunshine, good atmospheric mixing is expected which will allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through
most of Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move into Western Ohio
late Wednesday and begin the process of shifting the ridge axis to
the east. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge,
most of Wednesday should remain dry. A late day shower or storm
cannot be ruled out over Ohio as the shortwave will increase
large scale ascent over a destabilized lower atmosphere.

Very warm Wednesday with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal.

Shower chance will increase across the entire area Wednesday
night, as aforementioned shortwave continues it slow trek
eastward.

It will take most of Thursday for the trough axis to make it
through, necessitating the inclusion of pops through much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensembles are in good agreement that a broad and rather strong
ridge will develop over the Eastern US through the much of the long
term.

This will provide the area with very warm temperatures and
increasing levels of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals for the period,
with exception for pertain fog. Restrictions were confined to
ports nearest water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240638
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with isolated showers each afternoon and
evening is expected to last into the first part of the holiday
weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper low will slide up to Boston harbor today. The cooler air
aloft will still result in some instability showers this
afternoon. LI`s barely go negative - probably because all the
instability will be below 10kft. A cap about that high or even
lower should keep things suppressed. But, a few shra could pop
over the ridges - mainly in the SE third of the area - and drift
SSE. will hold POPs to 20s east of the Main Stem Susquehanna
River. Otherwise, the ridging starting to translate eastward will
keep the cu down over western PA. Maxes should get back to where
they were today and maybe add two degrees due to less clouds and
very slightly warmer 8H temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
After any diurnal convection dwindles at or before sunset, the
rest of the night should be quiet. Some patchy fog is possible but
dewpoints fairly low/dry. Sinking motion is maximized on Wednesday
as the upper ridge is nearly overhead. It should be a good day to
make some vitamin D. We should add another 2-4F onto the maxes
from Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still a few light showers across the se as of 230 am.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240552 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
152 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather today and Wednesday,
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only minor changes to the overnight period. Have updated
temperatures with the latest hires guidance and made adjustments
to cloud cover.

Drier air will continue to work into the area today. With plenty
of sunshine, good atmospheric mixing is expected which will allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridge will build in over the area tonight and hold through
most of Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move into Western Ohio
late Wednesday and begin the process of shifting the ridge axis to
the east. With a lack of moisture and subsidence under the ridge,
most of Wednesday should remain dry. A late day shower or storm
cannot be ruled out over Ohio as the shortwave will increase
large scale ascent over a destabilized lower atmosphere.

Very warm Wednesday with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal.

Shower chance will increase across the entire area Wednesday
night, as aforementioned shortwave continues it slow trek
eastward.

It will take most of Thursday for the trough axis to make it
through, necessitating the inclusion of pops through much of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensembles are in good agreement that a broad and rather strong
ridge will develop over the Eastern US through the much of the long
term.

This will provide the area with very warm temperatures and
increasing levels of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals for the period,
with exception for pertain fog. Restrictions were confined to
ports nearest water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240450
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1250 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our
region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over
our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift
east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around
the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions
for through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered showers continue to circulate around the upper low which
is east of New Jersey. We will continue with high chc/low likely
pops for the overnight hours.

Mid-level debris clouds from early convection around the backside
of the low will limit the extent of fog development overnight.
There is still a potential for some patchy fog, particularly in
areas where it rained.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the
east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to
spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as
well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we
head through the afternoon and into the evening.

Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s
through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer
to the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the
departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region
than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches
our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are
showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the
ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry
as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be
considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the
ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be
close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to
see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more
certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming
trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days.

Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement
and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it
relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday.
Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a
few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our
region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could
result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and
Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the
period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it
seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be
able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with
models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the
region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR thru 06Z except locally MVFR in showers. Patchy fog
could develop before daybreak Tuesday, especially at terminals
where it rained. However, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will limit
the extent of fog formation though. Therefore, kept restrictions
mainly in MVFR between 06z-12z. IFR vsby restrictions possible in
some of the more rural spots that received a wetting rainfall
today.

Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any
fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers
is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity
will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds
will turn to the west for Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with
showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft flag for hazardous seas was dropped. Seas at 44009
continue to slowly diminish. Scattered showers will continue
overnight. More concentrated activity across the northern NJ
Coastal waters. Seas on the ocean 3-4 ft overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches
through this evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Klein/Po
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Klein
Marine...Johnson/Klein/Po




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240138
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
938 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers have diminished with only some mid deck still to exit
region mainly south and east of kpit. Removed pops and adjusted
sky grids. No other changes and previous discussion follows.

Surface ridge will build overhead overnight. Light wind and clear
skies should allow for radiational cooling to occur but
temperatures should stay close to seasonal normals.

Clear skies and strong morning inversions seem likely to couple
with river valley moisture to allow for fog development on Tuesday
morning. This should quickly mix out with increasing vertical
mixing as well as substantially drier air off the deck and a
dearth of layer RH through the day. The net result will be a sunny
day across the CWA as large scale ridging builds toward the
region. The beginning stages of warm advection should push 850 mb
temperatures toward +12C or so by afternoon. This with ample
insolation should allow for a nice run up in afternoon
temperatures toward the higher end of the 70s across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridge axis shifts a bit to the east Wednesday. This will allow
for decent mixing again Wednesday and into Thursday, however it
will also slowly open the door to more moisture in southwesterly
flow aloft. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will creep
back into the forecast by Wednesday evening as a result, however
weak forcing show keep any portion of the period from becoming a
washout. The more noticeable aspect of the forecast will be the
further increase in temperatures as well as humidity values
jumping up. By Wednesday, most of the area should be solidly into
the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Further warming takes place through late in the week as 500 mb
height values surge substantially due to ridge amplification ahead
of an upstream upper low that emerges from the southern Rockies
into the Great Plains late in the week. Heights at 500 mb jump
toward 588 dam Friday into Saturday as 850 mb temperatures run up
toward +17 to +19C at the same time. While the models are playing
up measurable QPF during the period, a ridge axis overhead and
weak shear should limit convective potential, however some
instability will be around due to higher dewpoints and elevated
temperatures. Chances of showers and thunderstorms were maintained
as a result, however long periods of partly cloudy skies between
the few showers and thunderstorms will be the more common
condition. Likewise, additional temperature increases will be
apparent as highs run toward the mid to upper 80s across much of
the area.

Substantial uncertainty exists beyond Saturday as to the evolution
of the upper low from the southern Great Plains toward the Great
Lakes. At the moment, it seems it should remain largely to our
west until at the very earliest Monday. This would keep
temperatures well above normal until at least this time with
humidity values still rather July-like.

In order to construct the extended forecast, temperatures were
adjusted well above SuperBlend guidance and favored a blend more
along the lines of the GFS and adjusted MEX. Fries

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is anticipated at all terminals through much of the night,
save for some morning river valley fog tomorrow morning. Terminals
that had rainfall was very light, so this should have little
impact on fog development. Generally confined restrictions to
KHLG, KAGC, and some brief BR at KZZV based on the latest model
guidance.

High pressure will provide light wind through the period.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240056
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
856 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers tracking south of mason dixon line at this hour...with the
majority of central PA slated to remain dry overnight. Only
exception will be the far east...still in close enough proximity
to cyclonic flow aloft associated with coastal Mid Atlantic upper
low...which will keep a slgt chc to chc showers going overnight
from Schuylkill County southward to York/Lancaster Counties. The
remainder of central PA will see at least partial clearing. In
areas which saw rain Mon afternoon.. increased chance of patchy
valley fog.

The aforementioned cyclonic circulation and low heights/low
freezing levels (8.5k feet) around offshore upper low circulation
created rare NE to SW storm tracks this evening...with one
prolific hail producer in Lancaster/York Counties. Red Lion saw
the ground whitened by 4-5 minutes of pea to nickle sized hail.
Very weak environmental winds but southwest propogating cold pools
produced local 30+ mph wind gusts with isolated tree damage...and
an already delapidated structure in Lancaster County was further
damaged.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising heights as the
low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the same time a
weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of Canada into
the rising heights aloft. The models use this to develop scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening. Precip
confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts moving into
ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.


OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240035
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
835 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday
before shower chances return Wednesday night. A warming trend is
expected through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening update to adjust pops as showers are moving south into
northern West Virginia and weakening.

Surface ridge will build overhead overnight. Light wind and clear
skies should allow for radiational cooling to occur but
temperatures should stay close to seasonal normals.

Clear skies and strong morning inversions seem likely to couple
with river valley moisture to allow for fog development on Tuesday
morning. This should quickly mix out with increasing vertical
mixing as well as substantially drier air off the deck and a
dearth of layer RH through the day. The net result will be a sunny
day across the CWA as large scale ridging builds toward the
region. The beginning stages of warm advection should push 850 mb
temperatures toward +12C or so by afternoon. This with ample
insolation should allow for a nice run up in afternoon
temperatures toward the higher end of the 70s across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridge axis shifts a bit to the east Wednesday. This will allow
for decent mixing again Wednesday and into Thursday, however it
will also slowly open the door to more moisture in southwesterly
flow aloft. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will creep
back into the forecast by Wednesday evening as a result, however
weak forcing show keep any portion of the period from becoming a
washout. The more noticeable aspect of the forecast will be the
further increase in temperatures as well as humidity values
jumping up. By Wednesday, most of the area should be solidly into
the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Further warming takes place through late in the week as 500 mb
height values surge substantially due to ridge amplification ahead
of an upstream upper low that emerges from the southern Rockies
into the Great Plains late in the week. Heights at 500 mb jump
toward 588 dam Friday into Saturday as 850 mb temperatures run up
toward +17 to +19C at the same time. While the models are playing
up measurable QPF during the period, a ridge axis overhead and
weak shear should limit convective potential, however some
instability will be around due to higher dewpoints and elevated
temperatures. Chances of showers and thunderstorms were maintained
as a result, however long periods of partly cloudy skies between
the few showers and thunderstorms will be the more common
condition. Likewise, additional temperature increases will be
apparent as highs run toward the mid to upper 80s across much of
the area.

Substantial uncertainty exists beyond Saturday as to the evolution
of the upper low from the southern Great Plains toward the Great
Lakes. At the moment, it seems it should remain largely to our
west until at the very earliest Monday. This would keep
temperatures well above normal until at least this time with
humidity values still rather July-like.

In order to construct the extended forecast, temperatures were
adjusted well above SuperBlend guidance and favored a blend more
along the lines of the GFS and adjusted MEX. Fries

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is anticipated at all terminals through much of the night,
save for some morning river valley fog tomorrow morning. Terminals
that had rainfall was very light, so this should have little
impact on fog development. Generally confined restrictions to
KHLG, KAGC, and some brief BR at KZZV based on the latest model
guidance.

High pressure will provide light wind through the period.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 240002
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
802 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms slowly diminishing across
southern half of central PA this evening. Cyclonic circulation and
low heights around offshore upper low circulation created rare NE
to SW storm tracks this evening...with one prolific hail producer
in Lancaster/York Counties. Red Lion saw the ground whitened by
4-5 minutes of pea to nickle sized hail. Very weak environmental
winds but southwest propogating cold pools produced local 30+ mph
wind gusts with isolated tree damage...and an already delapidated
structure in Lancaster County was further damaged.

HRRR continues the current trend of the regional radar mosaic in
dissipating showers completely by late evening. Most areas will clear
out overnight. In areas of rain this afternoon..increased chance
of patchy valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising heights as the
low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the same time a
weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of Canada into
the rising heights aloft. The models use this to develop scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening. Precip
confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts moving into
ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regional radar mosaic at 00Z shows the last of the
diurnally-driven showers falling apart over southern Pa. For much
of central Pa, confidence in vfr conds overnight is high. However,
fog is a concern across portions of southern Pa, esp where rain
fell earlier today. The dwpt depression at KMDT is only 6 degrees
at 23Z, and with clearing skies developing toward sunset it`s an
ideal setup for fog. Current hrrr and lamp guidance not indicating
any vis restrictions there this evening and only mvfr
restrictions late tonight, but felt compelled to paint a more
pessimistic picture in the TAF. Current dwpt depressions and SREF
probs suggest KLNS may also experience some fog late tonight.
Elsewhere, the prospects of sig vis reductions appear low
overnight.

Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday,
bringing a near certainty of widespread VFR conds.


OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sat...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231945
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our
region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over
our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift
east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around
the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions
for through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The surface is located to the southeast of the area and will make
its way north and then east through tonight. The upper level low is
located just off the Carolina coast and gradually pushing eastward.
As the upper low pushes east, it will help to move the surface low
away from our area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region
this afternoon. As we head into this evening, these showers will
weaken and dissipate from west to east. The cumulus will start to
dissipate as we lose prime surface heating but cirrus will continue
to push in from the east. While skies may start to clear, we
anticipate that there will still be decent cloud cover overnight.

In areas where we see rain this evening, we may start to see some
fog development overnight as winds will go light and variable. If
the clouds clear more than expected, fog may become more
widespread across the region.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s across the region
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the
east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to
spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as
well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we
head through the afternoon and into the evening.

Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s
through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer
to the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the
departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region
than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches
our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are
showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the
ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry
as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be
considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the
ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be
close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to
see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more
certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming
trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days.

Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement
and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it
relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday.
Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a
few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our
region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could
result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and
Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the
period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it
seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be
able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with
models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the
region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...Showers are popping up across the region this
afternoon with some isolated thunderstorms affecting the terminals.
As we head into tonight, the showers and thunderstorms are expected
to dissipate from west to east.

Winds will become light overnight and skies may even start to clear.
Should clearing occur, some fog will be possible especially in areas
where low level moisture has increased due to precipitation. We have
included some 4-6sm fog in the taf during the overnight/early
morning hours.

Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any
fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers
is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity
will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds
will turn to the west for Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with
showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes were made to the current Small Craft Advisory this
afternoon. Small craft conditions continue across our southern ocean
waters in response to an offshore surface low. As the low moves
north tonight and then pulls away to the east, seas will start to
subside.

Winds may gust to around 20 knots through this evening before
lightening up overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches
through this evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Meola
Marine...Johnson/Meola




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231725
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
125 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Showers are developing as expected with the more organized band
over Schuykill County. This band is headed toward the Harrisburg
area and showers are forming west of it. There is a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the York-Harrisburg-Lancaster area in
the next few hours. HRRR gets these out after about 5-6 PM.

A second band is less organized over central areas and shows less
organization. Cannot rule out isolated showers this afternoon in
central areas through late afternoon.

Farther north and west chance of showers is very low.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Most areas will clear out overnight. In areas of rain this
afternoon increased chance patchy valley fog.

Tuesday looks to be a generally good day. Low probability of
precipitation. Mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A band of rain showers has developed in southeast areas. The
threat of showers and thunderstorms has increased for KSEG-KMDT-
KLNS-THV area this afternoon as the line of showers to the
northeast is heading toward the region.

MVFR possible in the showers this afternoon. There is a risk of
some more widely scattered showers and storms in central areas
from KIPT to KJST.

Most or all activity should diminish before sunset. Mainly VFR
overnight perhaps patchy MVFR in some valleys.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Grumm




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231324
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure at the surface offshore and also in the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will then ridge across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday
night. A few weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like
conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

Our attention turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the
west side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the
hint of a surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model
guidance, including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about
200-500 J/KG this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with
decent boundary layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms
should develop. This looks more likely across the interior and
away from the cooler ocean influence. If the amount of instability
is sufficient enough, then small hail cannot be ruled out with a
few stronger cells. The showers/storms will tend to move from
northeast to southwest given the steering flow. These may be
slower moving as well and get some assistance from terrain
circulations. We placed the highest pops (likely) from about I-95
on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some light showers
early this morning have mostly dissipated as they head off to the
southwest of the terminals. Additional showers are then expected
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL- KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated
as well but, given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not
included in the TAF`s. However, a TEMPO group is carried for
showers. Light and variable winds to start, becoming mostly
northeast 4-8 knots then possibly becoming southeast toward
evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

Outlook...
Tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
Tue night thru Wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
Thu thru Fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse/Meola
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KCTP 231143
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Classic rule of thumb calls for fog after it rains during the day
and skies clear at night with light winds, and that`s what we are
seeing in many locations tonight. We issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the next few hours mainly over central and northern areas.

Model agreement is good with respect to the upper low bottoming
out around Cape Hatteras today, with the cyclonic circulation
growing to influence the pattern from New England down to the
Carolinas.

Daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft will conspire to
steepen lapse rates and help support scattered showers and
thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. Capes are
not expected to be very impressive and shear will be meager so the
anticipation is for pulse thunderstorm development.

HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southern 1/2-2/3
of the area for the best chance of additional rain through 24/00z
followed by a decreasing/drying trend into the overnight.

Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

The chances for rain will shrink steadily overnight, but with the
edge of the cyclonic circulation associated with the upper low
still slopping over eastern Pa, the chances for a shower never go
to zero over my far eastern zones. Lows will range from the mid
40s north to mid 50s south, which will be near to even a little
above normal in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Highs Tuesday will rise into the lower 70s over higher elevations
of the west and north, and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Other than a small chance for a lingering shower east, still on
the outer edge of the amazing late spring upper low, most areas
will be bright and dry as the warming trend really gets under way.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some mid and high clouds above the fog...but the fog should
be gone here shortly.

12Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

As of 5 am...sites that saw some clearing quickly had dense
fog form.

Expect the fog to burn off by 12Z...given the mid May sun angle
and that most sites still have light breeze.

Given the cold air aloft...there could be a few showers around
the area...perhaps a rumble of thunder. VCTS in the TAFS.

Skies clear out tonight again.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231021
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure at the surface offshore and also in the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will then ridge across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday
night. A few weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like
conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

The day will start with fog in localized areas as the clouds have
thinned in combination of light/calm winds and a moist low-level
environment. This fog is expected to dissipate quickly early this
morning. Some light showers will occur early this morning mainly
across our south/southeast zones.

Our attention then turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the west
side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the hint of a
surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model guidance,
including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about 200-500 J/KG
this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with decent boundary
layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms should develop. This
looks more likely across the interior and away from the cooler ocean
influence. If the amount of instability is sufficient enough, then
small hail cannot be ruled out with a few stronger cells. The
showers/storms will tend to move from northeast to southwest given
the steering flow. These may be slower moving as well and get some
assistance from terrain circulations. We placed the highest pops
(likely) from about I-95 on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR visibility due to fog early for a few terminals,
otherwise VFR. Some light showers early this morning in the
vicinity of KMIV and KACY. Additional showers are then expected
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL- KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated
as well. Given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not included
in the TAF`s, however a TEMPO group is carried for showers. Light
and variable winds to start, becoming mostly northeast 4-8 knots
then possibly becoming southeast toward evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

outlook...
Tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
Tue night thru Wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
Thu thru Fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
   evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230822
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
422 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The slow moving storm system that brought rainy cool weather all
weekend will slowly edge away from the region today and Tuesday.
A noticeably warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from
mid week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Classic rule of thumb calls for fog after it rains during the day
and skies clear at night with light winds, and that`s what we are
seeing in many locations tonight. We issued a Dense Fog Advisory
for the next few hours mainly over central and northern areas.

Model agreement is good with respect to the upper low bottoming
out around Cape Hatteras today, with the cyclonic circulation
growing to influence the pattern from New England down to the
Carolinas.

Daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft will conspire to
steepen lapse rates and help support scattered showers and
thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. Capes are
not expected to be very impressive and shear will be meager so the
anticipation is for pulse thunderstorm development.

HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southern 1/2-2/3
of the area for the best chance of additional rain through 24/00z
followed by a decreasing/drying trend into the overnight.

Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

The chances for rain will shrink steadily overnight, but with the
edge of the cyclonic circulation associated with the upper low
still slopping over eastern Pa, the chances for a shower never go
to zero over my far eastern zones. Lows will range from the mid
40s north to mid 50s south, which will be near to even a little
above normal in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Highs Tuesday will rise into the lower 70s over higher elevations
of the west and north, and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Other than a small chance for a lingering shower east, still on
the outer edge of the amazing late spring upper low, most areas
will be bright and dry as the warming trend really gets under way.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Wednesday... central PA will be under rising
heights as the low lifts out and the ridge bulges east. At the
same time a weakening back door cold front will be sliding out of
Canada into the rising heights aloft. The models use this to
develop showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and evening.
Precip confidence is never terribly high with surface fronts
moving into ridges aloft.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad wsw flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/06z TAFs through 24/06z | Issued 145 am EDT 5/23/16

Mid level clouds over south central PA at 130 am. Band of showers
over central NY moving sw.

Main issue overnight is where there is some clearing...there is
fog and ground fog. Expect a wide range of conditions overnight.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230742
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system offshore and also over the upper
atmosphere will influence our weather today through Tuesday. High
pressure will ridge across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A
weak cold front will move towards the area Wednesday night. A few
weak disturbances will keep unsettled summer like conditions for
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another unsettled day is expected across our region, however a
warmer day for most is also expected. This unsettled weather is
courtesy of a large upper-level trough in the east, with a closed
low centered to our south that pivots offshore during the course of
the day. This closed low will drive another surface low east of the
North Carolina coast. This surface low will help keep the winds out
of the northeast overall. The forecast challenges today is the
extent of the warming and the coverage/timing of showers and thunder.

The day will start with fog in some areas as the clouds have thinned
in combination of light/calm winds and a moist low-level
environment. This fog is expected to dissipate quickly this morning
and not be widespread dense, however locally dense fog has been
reported in a few places. Some light showers will occur early this
morning mainly across our southeastern zones.

Our attention then turns to the presence of the upper-level trough.
There continues to be plenty of short wave energy revolving around
it, however there appears to be a convergence area aloft on the west
side of a thermal trough. This promotes lift with even the hint of a
surface trough reflection this afternoon. The model guidance,
including soundings, shows MLCAPE increasing to about 200-500 J/KG
this afternoon. Given the colder air aloft with decent boundary
layer heating, some low-topped thunderstorms should develop. This
looks more likely across the interior and away from the cooler ocean
influence. If the amount of instability is sufficient enough, then
small hail cannot be ruled out with a few stronger cells. The
showers/storms will tend to move from northeast to southwest given
the steering flow. These may be slower moving as well and get some
assistance from terrain circulations. We placed the highest pops
(likely) from about I-95 on westward.

As for the high temperatures, we used a GFS/NAM blend then made some
local tweaks. We are expecting many areas to get into the 70s prior
to the showers developing, although it will be cooler along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The center of the closed low is forecast to be slowly shifting to
the northeast off of our coast. This will continue to take a surface
low out to sea. The model guidance indicates that forcing may hang
on for awhile tonight. This would result in showers and some
thunderstorms to start the evening gradually weakening from west to
east. An enhanced area of lift to the northwest side of the closed
mid level center may result in an organizing area of showers across
the eastern area for awhile tonight. As a result, the pops were
increased to likely for a time. Any thunder should be confined to
early in the evening as boundary layer cooling sets in which may be
enhanced by rain-cooled air.

Given the more potential for a period of enhanced lift across
portions of our area in combination of convective cloud debris,
there should be a decent amount of clouds around through the night.
This would limit any fog formation and also slow the cooling trend.
As a result, we used a MOS blend for the low temperatures but then
adjusted them upward a little bit for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The last of the influences of the recent upper low across the Middle
Atlantic region and northeast will be affecting our area during
Tuesday. Pops were not changed much from earlier...in the chc range
n/e and slgt chc range s/w. There will still be enough cold air
aloft and sfc moisture to trigger a few showers or perhaps a
isolated tstm across the area. Temperatures will be near normal with
low/mid 70s in most areas.

A period of drier weather and much milder temperatures is slated for
Tuesday night into Wednesday Night. High pressure, rather weak, will
move across the area. Afternoon maximum temperatures Wednesday will
be in the 80s in most areas, except right along the shore and the
highest elevations of the srn Poconos.

A weakening cold front will try to push down from NY/NE later
Thursday, and this could trigger a shower/tstm across the nrn/wrn
parts of our region. Pops will be in the chc range for this
feature.It`s possible that it could wash out and leave us with a
drier day up north. This will be something to monitor over the
next few days. Temperatures again summer-like in the low and mid
80s.Humidity levels Thu-Thu night will begin to increase and  muggy
conditions will be the result.

Our area will remain just near enough to the storm track over the
weekend to keep conditions rather unsettled. We will continue with
slgt chc/small chc pops for mostly the nrn/wrn areas. Conditions
will be summer-like with shower activity not lasting long, but in
tstms they could yield some decent qpf.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR (localized LIFR) visibility due to fog early for
some terminals, otherwise VFR. Showers are expected to develop
mainly from about midday on, with the greatest chance from KTTN-
KPNE/KPHL-KILG on westward. A few thunderstorms are anticipated as
well. Given low coverage of thunderstorms, it was not included in
the TAF`s, however a TEMPO group is carried for showers. Light and
variable winds to start, becoming mostly northeast 4-8 knots then
possibly becoming southeast toward evening.

Tonight...Local restrictions due to showers or a thunderstorm in the
evening, however the showers should be diminishing west to east
through the night. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Light southerly winds
overall, and if enough clearing takes place overnight then local fog
should develop.

outlook...
tue...mostly vfr but sct showers with lower cigs/vsbys psbl.
tue night thru wed night...vfr. patchy fog psbl both nights.
thu thru fri...mostly vfr. sct tstms mostly afternoon and early
   evening with restrictions psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions early this morning are rather marginal for a Small
Craft Advisory, as seas are in the 3-5 foot range on the Atlantic
coastal waters. Low pressure offshore should increase the winds some
today especially across the southern waters and this should build
the seas some through the day. Overall the winds should remain below
25 knots, however will just keep the generic Small Craft Advisory
going (extended to 15z up north to 04z southward). The conditions
are expected to remain below advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

outlook...
sub sca conditions expected thru the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230556 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low
leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Shortwave, rotating around Mid-Atlantic upper low, will keep in
the risk for showers, mainly from Pittsburgh southward, through
much of the night. Have updated pops using latest radar trends and
hires guidance. Have also updated the sky grids, as clouds will
be on the decrease from the north to south. Expect fog to develop
as well.

Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move
over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to
show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate
the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest
pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture
will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet
this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder.
Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool
and wet east to the dry and sunny west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in tonight, behind the exiting
upper low. Any showers over the east, will be ending and skies
will clear.

With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area
finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures.

Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remaining rain areas should diminish as the morning, and
supporting shortwave energy progress. Areas of IFR, with fog and
stratus, are expected at where rainfall occurred. Building high
pressure will ensure the return of VFR after daybreak.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230546
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
146 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/06z TAFs through 24/06z | Issued 145 am EDT 5/23/16

Mid level clouds over south central PA at 130 am. Band of showers
over central NY moving sw.

Main issue overnight is where there is some clearing...there is
fog and ground fog. Expect a wide range of conditions overnight.

06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/24-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of mainly P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl/Tyburski




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230149
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
949 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are possible especially east of Interstate 79
through Monday before drier and warmer weather returns through
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A shortwave rotating around an upper level low across northern
VA should continue to result in scattered to numerous showers this
evening. The showers are expected to gradually diminish later
tonight as the shortwave exits and the upper low begins to move
SE. Patchy fog is possible where rain fell earlier, though slowly
diminishing cloud cover and winds around 5 kt could limit this to
sheltered locations. Left mention out of the forecast at this
time. Lows should be near seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late
Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual
moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western
edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and
some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally
confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine
anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast.

By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving
way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under
southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper low across the region should continue to bring scattered
showers early this evening. Any MVFR conditions in heavier
showers now look to be away from ports. Patchy IFR is expected in
fog overnight with lingering low level moisture, mainly where
more significant showers fell sunday afternoon. VFR should return
after 13z monday with diurnal cumulus.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 230147
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
947 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The mid/upper low affecting the area will continue to sink
southward tonight, but our area will remain on the northern side.
Cool an damp conditions will continue through the night. Showers
will dissipate from north to south overnight, and clouds may begin
to thin from north to south as well through the overnight hours.
Depending on how much thinning of the clouds occurs, some fog
could develop overnight light winds expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are currently in place across all TAF sites this
evening, and scattered showers will dissipate from north to south
this evening and overnight. There is the potential for some fog
development overnight into Monday morning if clouds thin out
enough. We`ve introduced some light fog for all TAF sites, with
the thickest potential at RDG. Any fog should lift and dissipate
after sunrise Monday, and a return to VFR is expected. Scattered
showers could again develop during the day Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 7 pm today (5.03) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1872.

Atlantic City`s 4.61 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest
May dating back to 1874.

Corrected por PHl and 7 PM monthly amounts both locations.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines/Robertson
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KCTP 230034
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
834 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 23/00z TAFs through 23/00z | Issued 735pm EDT 5/22/16

Showers continue to rotate from east to west across the region as
an upper level low pressure moves slowly to the southeast to the
mid Atlantic states. Areas of fog and drizzle will drop any site
to MVFR or briefly IFR overnight with light winds.

As the upper low moves along the eastern seaboard Monday, enough
instability remains for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Did
not try to paint any specific location but rather a general chance
of thunder /VCTS/.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Tyburski




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230010
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
810 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Decreasing shower chances are expected through Monday as upper
level low pressure exits. Warmer temperatures are expected through
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low across was across northeast WV based on the
latest water vapor and meso analysis. This should continue to
result in scattered to numerous showers this evening. The showers
are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the upper low
begins to move SE. Patchy fog is possible where rain fell earlier,
though slowly diminishing cloud cover and winds around 5 kt could
limit this to sheltered locations. Lows should be near seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late
Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual
moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western
edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and
some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally
confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine
anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast.

By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving
way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under
southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper low across the region should continue to bring scattered
showers early this evening. Any MVFR conditions in heavier
showers now look to be away from ports. Patchy IFR is expected in
fog overnight with lingering low level moisture, mainly where
more significant showers fell sunday afternoon. VFR should return
after 13z monday with diurnal cumulus.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 222307
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
707 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A upper low pressure system and an associated low pressure trough
will continue moving southeast into Virgina tonight. scattered
showers are currently located across in the Delmarva and Eastern
PA. However, a gradual decrease is expected as the upper level low
pressure moves south of us overnight. Cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures a degree or warmer than the met/mav guidance in
the low and mid 50`s. Some patchy fog could occur as well around
sunrise with light winds and residual moisture in place. A
hindrance for fog formation will be a mid to high cloud deck which
can prevent the formation of radiational fog around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings outside of KMIV and KACY, possible window
from 09-13z Monday for some patchy fog at all sites with lower
ceilings and VSBYS. Highest chances for fog are at KRDG and KMIV.
KMIV and KACY are likely to hang on to IFR/MVFR into the early
evening hours. Lingering showers tonight should slowly decrease in
coverage this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 7 pm today (5.03) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1872.

Atlantic City`s 4.61 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest
May dating back to 1874.

Corrected por PHl and 7 PM monthly amounts both locations.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...707P




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222303
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
703 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Decreasing shower chances are expected through Monday as upper
level low pressure exits. Warmer temperatures are expected through
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low across was across northeast WV based on the
latest water vapor and meso analysis. This should continue to
result in scattered to numerous showers this evening. The showers
are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the upper low
begins to move SE. Patchy fog is possible where rain fell earlier,
though slowly diminishing cloud cover and windsaround 5 kt could
limit this to sheltered locations. Lows should be near seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late
Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual
moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western
edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and
some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally
confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine
anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast.

By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving
way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under
southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for
the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves
embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which
is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights
and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through
the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper low across the region should continue to bring scattered
to numerous showers through early this evening. MVFR conditions
are possible in any of the heavier showers, with VFR elsewhere.
The showers should gradually diminish this evening, though patchy
IFR is expected in fog overnight with lingering low level
moisture. VFR should return Monday with diurnal CU.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 222221
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina and
then slowly drift northeast, lingering just offshore of our region
through Tuesday. A ridge will build over our region by mid week. The
ridge will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A upper low pressure system and an associated low pressure trough
will continue moving southeast into Virgina tonight. scattered
showers are currently located across in the Delmarva and Eastern
PA. However, a gradual decrease is expected as the upper level low
pressure moves south of us overnight. Cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures a degree or warmer than the met/mav guidance in
the low and mid 50`s. Some patchy fog could occur as well around
sunrise with light winds and residual moisture in place. A
hindrance for fog formation will be a mid to high cloud deck which
can prevent the formation of radiational fog around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will start the day to our southeast and move
northeast toward Cape Cod by nighttime. While the system will be
offshore, daytime heating will result in some instability by the
afternoon hours. This will likely result in another round of
scattered showers forming and even some thunderstorms with CAPE
values of a few hundred J/KG. The highest chances look to be across
Eastern PA where the terrain may help out a little as well.
Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70`s for the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...the upper level low will linger over the northeastern
U.S. for one more day before lifting further northeast. As such,
should see any lingering showers across the region taper off by
the evening. A modest warming trend is expected going into Tuesday
resulting in temperatures once again near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. However,
unlike previous model runs, the 12z ECMWF and GFS now show the
center of the high much further south. As such, though there
should be a lull in rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances will
increase once again on Thursday, primarily for locations expected
to be west of the ridge axis (Generally E Central PA and NW NJ).
Of more certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable
warming trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both
days.

Friday through Sunday...The GFS has poor run to run consistency
through this period, as it now shows a backdoor cold front
arriving in the region by Friday. If this scenario is correct,
persistent onshore flow could result in temperatures well below
normal especially Saturday and Sunday, and generally light and
steady precip through much of the period. For now though,
have not included this in the forecast, not only due to the poor
run to run consistency, but also because it seems an unlikely
pattern for late May that a cold front would be able to push this
far south under an upper level ridge. Even with models and
ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the region,
should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings outside of KMIV and KACY, possible window
from 09-13z Monday for some patchy fog at all sites with lower
ceilings and VSBYS. Highest chances for fog are at KRDG and KMIV.
KMIV and KACY are likely to hang on to IFR/MVFR into the early
evening hours. Lingering showers tonight should slowly decrease in
coverage this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Occasional MVFR conditions possible with showers and fog
especially Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR conditions likely. Small chance of MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Friday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with rain showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA tonight through late tomorrow afternoon on the ocean. While
winds will generally be northeasterly from 10-15 knots, seas will
remaining around five feet through tomorrow afternoon on the ocean
waters. Seas will likely be slower than wavewatch indicates coming
down because of an easterly, onshore flow component in the wind
direction. However, it is still expected that seas fall below five
feet by days end on Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ve recalculated the projected monthly temperature based on our
forecast and we`re still holding to a substantial warmup (summerlike
by Friday), lowering the average temperature departure by about 3
degrees from where we were through the 21st...still below normal
for the month at Philadelphia. A backdoor cold frontal intrusion
this weekend as proposed by the GFS would leaves us cooler for the
month, than now expected and projected.

Rainfall through 5 pm today (5.01`) has raised Philadelphia`s
month of May ranking to 22nd wettest, dating back to 1874.

Atlantic City`s 4.81 total makes this so far, the 25th wettest May
dating back to 1874.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gaines/Johnson
Marine...Gaines/Johnson
Climate...621P




000
FXUS61 KCTP 222029
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably cool and wet weather pattern will continue tonight
with improving conditions expected Monday into Tuesday. A noticeably
warmer and more summer-like pattern is forecast from mid week into
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
20z water vapor loop shows upper low ovr northern virginia. On
radar, light stratiform rain continues to fall across most of
central and southern Pa within region of lg scale forcing north of
upper low. On the nw periphery of upper low, there has been enough
diurnal heating/destabilization to support sct tsra ovr parts of
Warren/Mckean counties. Even some pea sized hail reported arnd 3pm
in Warren.

The HIRES deterministic and ensemble blend, which has performed
quite well in simulating the pcpn pattern over the past 24 hours,
supports max POPs early tonight over the southwest and south
central zones before a gradual north to south drying trend
overnight, as upper low sinks south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Model agreement is good with respect to additional shortwave
energy being absorbed into upper level trough crossing the Mid
Atlantic piedmont tonight and eventually closing off as it starts
to move northeastward along/off the coast on Monday. Expect an
axis of scattered showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
within a low level convergence axis on the backside of the closed
low...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours when
daytime heating combined with cool temps aloft/steep mid level
lapse rates will result in marginal instability. HIRES
deterministic and ensemble blend favors the southeast 1/2 of the
area with the highest pcpn probs through 24/00z followed by a
decreasing/drying trend into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s
which is near to slightly below normal with the largest departures
on the order of about 5 degrees across southern PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended guidance is trending close to recent solutions..with
the much heralded advertisement of eastern ridge/western trough
holding sway and bringing the arrival of summer like
temperatures and humidity.

Slowly filling and lifting out upper low will be the focus early
in the period and will still keep the mention of a shower
possible overmainly eastern areas into Tuesday. By Wednesday...
central PA will bein favorable position for drying and arrival of
risingheights...delivering quite warm conditions as subtropical
ridgestarts to influence our weather. The area remains susceptible
tomainly afternoon isolated convection on Thu-Fri as zonal WSW
flow in ring of fire regime could focus some activity. However...
strong amplification of the upper ridge into central and eastern
PA Sat and Sun should put a cap on convective chances for a time.

The picture becomes muddled by late Sunday and Monday as
rex blocking along the eastern seaboard may deliver a rich fetch
of tropical moisture towards the mid atlantic and points northward
by that time...at least introducing a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms at that time (Mon-Tue). Northern
stream energy sliding across the eastern GLAKS could combine with
this moisture flow Mon night and Tuesday for more focused activity.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 22/18z TAFs through 23/18z | Issued 235pm EDT 5/22/16
The focus for restrictions will continue to be in the southwest
airspace with ocnl IFR cigs at JST. Radar shows steadier light in
this area with isold-sct shower activity across the remainder of
the area. Still favoring VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing at most
terminals tonight into Monday morning with a gradual north to
south drying pcpn trend.

OUTLOOK...Monday-Friday 5/23-5/27

Mon...Areas of IFR/MVFR cigs early southern 1/2. Sct showers with
isold tstm impacts possible sern 1/2 18-24z.

Tue-Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Chance of P.M. showers/tstms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...Steinbugl




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